Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result (Vol 2)

[blindswelledrat]

p1stonhead said:

blindswelledrat said:

I suspect that Corbyn has suddenly realised that he is out of touch with 90% of even labour's voters and is having to change his hymnsheet a little.
I am pretty surprised at this as Corbyn is so mentally principled that I have never seen him soften his stance once.
As for him 'seeing sense', regardless of whether you are prop or anti immigration, Corbyn has never 'seen sense' in his life and he never will. He has a black and white communist opinion that is utterly immovable.

I think he has actually realised no one would ever vote for him so now he is saying whats really on his mind. Like this tripe;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38568116

TO be fair he has said what was on his mind from day 1 which is why he has zero chance of every getting elected, because 'what is on his mind' is nothing short of idealistic insanity and economic suicide.
I think this latest speech is, for the first time, the opposite. Him actually pretending to think something else because it has finally dawned on him that he could be responsible for the end of the Labour party (and even the unions have stuck their oar in)

[London424]

blindswelledrat said:

I suspect that Corbyn has suddenly realised that he is out of touch with 90% of even labour's voters and is having to change his hymnsheet a little.
I am pretty surprised at this as Corbyn is so mentally principled that I have never seen him soften his stance once.
As for him 'seeing sense', regardless of whether you are prop or anti immigration, Corbyn has never 'seen sense' in his life and he never will. He has a black and white communist opinion that is utterly immovable.

Apart from his complete flip flop on the EU you mean?

[dbdb]

blindswelledrat said:

Murph7355 said:

Tim Farron should be very concerned.

You've got to be kidding? This whole thing is an absolute gift for him.
A year ago the Lib Dems were utterly finished.
Now he has the only anti-Brexit party and half the country supports that stance strongly, probably above any other political policy.
Politicians are pandering to brexit but it does not mean for one moment that the half the country who voted remain feel any differently.

Last election they got 8% of the vote. If the election were this year and they were the only party talking about being anti Brexit whilst all the other parties fought over the votes of the Brexiters, do you really think that is a bad thing for him?

I completely agree. The whole situation is an absolute gift for Farron. The Liberal Democrats are poised to take Remainer and Centrist Tories in big numbers and the centre ground of the Labour party's voters is up for grabs to. It is an incredible opportunity.

[loafer123]

dbdb said:

blindswelledrat said:

Murph7355 said:

Tim Farron should be very concerned.

You've got to be kidding? This whole thing is an absolute gift for him.
A year ago the Lib Dems were utterly finished.
Now he has the only anti-Brexit party and half the country supports that stance strongly, probably above any other political policy.
Politicians are pandering to brexit but it does not mean for one moment that the half the country who voted remain feel any differently.

Last election they got 8% of the vote. If the election were this year and they were the only party talking about being anti Brexit whilst all the other parties fought over the votes of the Brexiters, do you really think that is a bad thing for him?

I completely agree. The whole situation is an absolute gift for Farron. The Liberal Democrats are poised to take Remainer and Centrist Tories in big numbers and the centre ground of the Labour party's voters is up for grabs to. It is an incredible opportunity.

We are talking about the same Tim Farron? He couldn't get his kids to follow him into a sweet shop...

[Fastdruid]

dbdb said:

blindswelledrat said:

Murph7355 said:

Tim Farron should be very concerned.

You've got to be kidding? This whole thing is an absolute gift for him.
A year ago the Lib Dems were utterly finished.
Now he has the only anti-Brexit party and half the country supports that stance strongly, probably above any other political policy.
Politicians are pandering to brexit but it does not mean for one moment that the half the country who voted remain feel any differently.

Last election they got 8% of the vote. If the election were this year and they were the only party talking about being anti Brexit whilst all the other parties fought over the votes of the Brexiters, do you really think that is a bad thing for him?

I completely agree. The whole situation is an absolute gift for Farron. The Liberal Democrats are poised to take Remainer and Centrist Tories in big numbers and the centre ground of the Labour party's voters is up for grabs to. It is an incredible opportunity.

Doubtful really. The Lib Dems could pick up the odd seat here and there - but to make a meaningful dent on the Conservatives, who themselves will be eyeing up dozens of marginal Labour seats, they would require a campaign based on far more than just opposing Brexit.

[blindswelledrat]

Fastdruid said:

dbdb said:

blindswelledrat said:

Murph7355 said:

Tim Farron should be very concerned.

You've got to be kidding? This whole thing is an absolute gift for him.
A year ago the Lib Dems were utterly finished.
Now he has the only anti-Brexit party and half the country supports that stance strongly, probably above any other political policy.
Politicians are pandering to brexit but it does not mean for one moment that the half the country who voted remain feel any differently.

Last election they got 8% of the vote. If the election were this year and they were the only party talking about being anti Brexit whilst all the other parties fought over the votes of the Brexiters, do you really think that is a bad thing for him?

I completely agree. The whole situation is an absolute gift for Farron. The Liberal Democrats are poised to take Remainer and Centrist Tories in big numbers and the centre ground of the Labour party's voters is up for grabs to. It is an incredible opportunity.

Doubtful really. The Lib Dems could pick up the odd seat here and there - but to make a meaningful dent on the Conservatives, who themselves will be eyeing up dozens of marginal Labour seats, they would require a campaign based on far more than just opposing Brexit.

You might be right, but I am not so sure. Brexit has polarised us more than anything in our lifetime, and just about everyone seems to feel more strongly about it than any other political policy ever.
I would agree with you if it were a completely new party with a few members, but they are a credible party who there is no doubt will be able to compose a credible mandate for an election on all issues.
Just going on my own thought process, I have voted Conservative forever but I would definitely vote lib-dem if the election was now.

[Fastdruid]

blindswelledrat said:

Fastdruid said:

dbdb said:

blindswelledrat said:

Murph7355 said:

Tim Farron should be very concerned.

You've got to be kidding? This whole thing is an absolute gift for him.
A year ago the Lib Dems were utterly finished.
Now he has the only anti-Brexit party and half the country supports that stance strongly, probably above any other political policy.
Politicians are pandering to brexit but it does not mean for one moment that the half the country who voted remain feel any differently.

Last election they got 8% of the vote. If the election were this year and they were the only party talking about being anti Brexit whilst all the other parties fought over the votes of the Brexiters, do you really think that is a bad thing for him?

I completely agree. The whole situation is an absolute gift for Farron. The Liberal Democrats are poised to take Remainer and Centrist Tories in big numbers and the centre ground of the Labour party's voters is up for grabs to. It is an incredible opportunity.

Doubtful really. The Lib Dems could pick up the odd seat here and there - but to make a meaningful dent on the Conservatives, who themselves will be eyeing up dozens of marginal Labour seats, they would require a campaign based on far more than just opposing Brexit.

You might be right, but I am not so sure. Brexit has polarised us more than anything in our lifetime, and just about everyone seems to feel more strongly about it than any other political policy ever.
I would agree with you if it were a completely new party with a few members, but they are a credible party who there is no doubt will be able to compose a credible mandate for an election on all issues.
Just going on my own thought process, I have voted Conservative forever but I would definitely vote lib-dem if the election was now.

At the moment the Lib Dems are polling worse than UKIP, a party that arguably now has no purpose! Outside of a few hardcore remain areas there might be one or two seats where they might have a surprise win but they're not going to be big.

Personally I wouldn't vote for them as they're IMO the biggest bunch of hypocrites out of all the parties.

[blindswelledrat]

Fastdruid said:

At the moment the Lib Dems are polling worse than UKIP, a party that arguably now has no purpose!

Really? Very surprised to hear that.

ETA: So surprised I thought I would check it and it doesn't seem to be borne out by the actual figures

Libdem: Sept16 6%, October16 7%, November 10%, December 14%
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/re...

Seems to suggest some steady momentum in their popularity

Edited by blindswelledrat on Tuesday 10th January 13:04

[turbobloke]

blindswelledrat said:

Fastdruid said:

At the moment the Lib Dems are polling worse than UKIP, a party that arguably now has no purpose!

Really? Very surprised to hear that.

ETA: So surprised I thought I would check it and it doesn't seem to be borne out by the actual figures

Libdem: Sept16 6%, October16 7%, November 10%, December 14%
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/re...

Seems to suggest some steady momentum in their popularity

It does seem so, but the claim was that the LibDems are polling worse than UKIP, present tense and not that the LibDems having sunk are sinking futher through the sea bed, and there's evidence for that view (less than UKIP) from surveys in January.

6 Jan 2017
YouGov/Times – CON 39, LAB 26, LDEM 10, UKIP 14, GRN 4

9 Jan 2017
ICM/Guardian – CON 42, LAB 28, LDEM 9, UKIP 12, GRN 4

Good job polls are so accurate

[Fastdruid]

blindswelledrat said:

Fastdruid said:

At the moment the Lib Dems are polling worse than UKIP, a party that arguably now has no purpose!

Really? Very surprised to hear that.

ETA: So surprised I thought I would check it and it doesn't seem to be borne out by the actual figures

Libdem: Sept16 6%, October16 7%, November 10%, December 14%
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/re...

Seems to suggest some steady momentum in their popularity

Ipsos-mori are the *only* ones that have it that way round, all the others are reversed. This site has a nice aggregation of all the polls.

http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Outside of Ipsos-mori there is *one* other poll where they manage parity!

EDIT: Oh and this page has some nice graphs on as well:
http://britainelects.com/polling/polling-averages/

[Fastdruid]

turbobloke said:

Good job polls are so accurate

Yep. I wouldn't totally believe them, especially as certain polling methods give different results eg Conservative votes are less likely to respond to on the door polls. The old are less likely to do on-line. The young are less likely to do phone etc etc.

They do however give an indication.

[blindswelledrat]

Do they tend to be consistent within their own parameters?

Forex, if you took the yougov poll for December and they re-did the poll 4 or 5 times at the same time , would the results be expected to be fairly similar?
DO they use a different sample of people each month? Are the samples big enough to create a consistent result?
Genuine question as I have no idea

[Derek Smith]

I think there is a massive gap in the middle ground and that's why May is making no statements at this time. She'll wander around, say this and that, all of which can be interpreted in opposite ways, and then, when the result of Brexit is revealed, she'll suggest that she was clear on what she wanted but the EU/the negotiators/someone standing near her, made a mess of it all.

What has any remainer got to worry about? She stated that we will not completely leave the EU. We need to trade with them. On the other hand a leaver will find comfort in her professed intent to leave the EU completely as she said, clear as anything, that Brexit meant . . . you know the rest.

She's an ambitious politician. She will do what others of he ilk do in such circumstances; look after themselves.

[b2hbm]

Fastdruid said:

dbdb said:

blindswelledrat said:

Murph7355 said:

Tim Farron should be very concerned.

You've got to be kidding? This whole thing is an absolute gift for him.
A year ago the Lib Dems were utterly finished.
Now he has the only anti-Brexit party and half the country supports that stance strongly, probably above any other political policy.
Politicians are pandering to brexit but it does not mean for one moment that the half the country who voted remain feel any differently.

Last election they got 8% of the vote. If the election were this year and they were the only party talking about being anti Brexit whilst all the other parties fought over the votes of the Brexiters, do you really think that is a bad thing for him?

I completely agree. The whole situation is an absolute gift for Farron. The Liberal Democrats are poised to take Remainer and Centrist Tories in big numbers and the centre ground of the Labour party's voters is up for grabs to. It is an incredible opportunity.

Doubtful really. The Lib Dems could pick up the odd seat here and there - but to make a meaningful dent on the Conservatives, who themselves will be eyeing up dozens of marginal Labour seats, they would require a campaign based on far more than just opposing Brexit.

^^ yes. I doubt there'll be any significant increase in Libdem seats even if we had an election tomorrow.

Stop and think about the logic for sweeping the Libdems into power. At the last election there was only one party that was 100% certainty for Brexit, and that was UKIP. And how many seats did they get ?

People vote for a "complete package" government at election time, not a single issue. Otherwise we'd have had Farage as PM last time around.

[don4l]

Derek Smith said:

I think there is a massive gap in the middle ground and that's why May is making no statements at this time. She'll wander around, say this and that, all of which can be interpreted in opposite ways, and then, when the result of Brexit is revealed, she'll suggest that she was clear on what she wanted but the EU/the negotiators/someone standing near her, made a mess of it all.

What has any remainer got to worry about? She stated that we will not completely leave the EU. We need to trade with them. On the other hand a leaver will find comfort in her professed intent to leave the EU completely as she said, clear as anything, that Brexit meant . . . you know the rest.

She's an ambitious politician. She will do what others of he ilk do in such circumstances; look after themselves.

I think that May is keeping quiet because she has no idea about what might be possible.

We have elections coming up in France and Germany. The political landscape could be utterly different in a couple of months.

[anonymous-user]

Murph7355 said:

People need to be clear that it is the EU that is failing to clarify the position of EU citizens living abroad in relation to Brexit. The UK has asked that it be sorted ahead of time only to be told no.

It is in the EU's gift to address it. EU citizens living here need to understand this is symptomatic of why the majority of people here voted to leave. It has nothing to do with wanting positively contributing people to leave the country.

I absolutely agree it's the fault of the EU.

[Einion Yrth]

bmw535i said:

Murph7355 said:

People need to be clear that it is the EU that is failing to clarify the position of EU citizens living abroad in relation to Brexit. The UK has asked that it be sorted ahead of time only to be told no.

It is in the EU's gift to address it. EU citizens living here need to understand this is symptomatic of why the majority of people here voted to leave. It has nothing to do with wanting positively contributing people to leave the country.

I absolutely agree it's the fault of the EU.

I work with half a dozen EU nationals, and 2 or three americans, they work, they pay taxes, why would they have to leave, unless their own governments require it, (and even then I'd shelter them if necessary)? I'd just like to be able to ensure that any further additions to the population of a country that already has a greater population density than most of Europe (and that's despite most of Scotland being effectively empty), were going to be equally as beneficial.

[wc98]

blindswelledrat said:

but they are a credible party who there is no doubt will be able to compose a credible mandate for an election on all issues.

that is the first time in a long time i have seen that collection of words mentioned at the same time as the lib dems .
it will be interesting to see if they do manage to rebuild based on their pro eu position.

[B'stard Child]

wc98 said:

blindswelledrat said:

but they are a credible party who there is no doubt will be able to compose a credible mandate for an election on all issues.

that is the first time in a long time i have seen that collection of words mentioned at the same time as the lib dems for a very long time .
it will be interesting to see if they do manage to rebuild based on their pro eu position.

I reckon there is a psittacines with your name on it

[Murph7355]

blindswelledrat said:

You might be right, but I am not so sure. Brexit has polarised us more than anything in our lifetime, and just about everyone seems to feel more strongly about it than any other political policy ever.
I would agree with you if it were a completely new party with a few members, but they are a credible party who there is no doubt will be able to compose a credible mandate for an election on all issues.
Just going on my own thought process, I have voted Conservative forever but I would definitely vote lib-dem if the election was now.

What other policies of theirs would you be voting for?

Farron's stance on free movement is outmoded. You know categorically that is the case when even Comrade Corbyn backtracks faster than an Italian General.

Yes, 48% voted to Remain. But how many of those had no concerns over core items of sovereignty.

I strongly suspect you are in a minority if you would solely vote on the Brexit issue. There will no doubt be a few constituencies that they could swing if their election funds last long enough, but I simply cannot see them doing anything material in the next GE if Farron and Co don't start to think a little more deeply about their bile ridden policies.