Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result (Vol 2)

[Coolbanana]

SpeckledJim said:

In a new referendum, I believe virtually everyone who voted first time would vote again, and almost none of them have changed their minds.

Then on remain side, you can add the kids who didn't realise it was happening first time round, or did realise but didn't really care - lots of them would turn out for another referendum.

Matching them on the leave side are the casual leavers who didn't vote first time because they didn't think a win was really possible, and other leavers who will have been mobilised by the words and deeds from Brussels in the last year, and who will want to counter the increased engagement of the youth.

I think it would be close, again.

Not that it's going to happen.

I've posted similar previously.

I'm not certain a 2nd Referendum has anywhere near enough support yet but the mere voicing of it more vocally now is an indication that it could happen - it really all depends upon how the next round of Negotiations go.

The fact is, the country is almost evenly divided. As such, until such time as the actual Brexit proves to not affect the majority of Remainers in any fundamental way, it will be criticised by those who wanted to Remain. Rightfully so, if it cannot deliver upon its promises. It is the duty of the Leavers to ensure that the promises of a greater Britain outside of the EU for all are delivered.

If Brexit fails, campaigns to go back into the EU will be far stronger, more vocal and widespread I reckon than we have seen from Leavers over the last 40 years.

The Brexit Gamble is a huge one - imagine Brexiters, if it fails and 10 years or so from now the UK successfully gets back in on the back of a Return Referendum. It will likely do so accepting all EU demands including the Euro and without any of the extras it currently has. Hard-line Brexiters will be so very upset then!

[Murph7355]

Coolbanana said:

...
The Brexit Gamble is a huge one - imagine Brexiters, if it fails and 10 years or so from now the UK successfully gets back in on the back of a Return Referendum. It will likely do so accepting all EU demands including the Euro and without any of the extras it currently has. Hard-line Brexiters will be so very upset then! ...

In 10yrs' time there is still absolutely no chance this country will accept membership of the Eurozone IMO.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that a referendum will be held in that time frame. I'm doubtful, but it's possible. However of the EU holds some of those things up as pre-requisites, do you really think we'd vote for it?

[anonymous-user]

There is no chance the UK will abandon the £.

[ElectricSoup]

jsf said:

There is no chance the UK will abandon the £.

It wouldn't have to even if it left and rejoined. Several countries have joined under a "commitment" to join the Euro, but the EU will not enforce it for fear of a repeat of Greece. They do learn from mistakes.

Scotland might once they're independent after Brexit though. Looks a much more attractive option now.

[SpeckledJim]

alfie2244 said:

Zod said:

SpeckledJim said:

In a new referendum, I believe virtually everyone who voted first time would vote again, and almost none of them have changed their minds.

Then on remain side, you can add the kids who didn't realise it was happening first time round, or did realise but didn't really care - lots of them would turn out for another referendum.

Matching them on the leave side are the casual leavers who didn't vote first time because they didn't think a win was really possible, and other leavers who will have been mobilised by the words and deeds from Brussels in the last year, and who will want to counter the increased engagement of the youth.

I think it would be close, again.

Not that it's going to happen.

You are forgetting the dead Leave voters.

What about the voters that have moved from being young to now being old?...whatever age that is?

Both good points. Maybe 2-4% of leave voters have died since the referendum. (my estimate).

Similarly, if we're being as simplistic as stating "old people vote leave, young people vote remain" then the entire electorate from the first ref. will be 2 years older (and 2 years more 'leavey') by the time of a (not happening) second.

And then there's 2 years worth of kids entering the electorate, who likely will show a similar careless disregard for democracy as their older brothers and sisters, so might not count for much.

[amusingduck]

ElectricSoup said:

jsf said:

There is no chance the UK will abandon the £.

It wouldn't have to even if it left and rejoined. Several countries have joined under a "commitment" to join the Euro, but the EU will not enforce it for fear of a repeat of Greece. They do learn from mistakes.

[ElectricSoup]

amusingduck said:

ElectricSoup said:

jsf said:

There is no chance the UK will abandon the £.

It wouldn't have to even if it left and rejoined. Several countries have joined under a "commitment" to join the Euro, but the EU will not enforce it for fear of a repeat of Greece. They do learn from mistakes.

[SpeckledJim]

ElectricSoup said:

Scotland might once they're independent after Brexit though. Looks a much more attractive option now.

Crossing the threads now, but would (if Scotland were somehow to be independent after Brexit) Spain let them in?

Perhaps if by then the Catalan question has been solved by their secession, then perhaps Spain won't be obstructive. But if Catalan secession has prompted the Basques to rattle their sabres, then the Spanish might be desperate to keep the Scots out.

I'd have thought?

Lots of things need to happen between now and then for that to be important.

[amusingduck]

ElectricSoup said:

amusingduck said:

ElectricSoup said:

jsf said:

There is no chance the UK will abandon the £.

It wouldn't have to even if it left and rejoined. Several countries have joined under a "commitment" to join the Euro, but the EU will not enforce it for fear of a repeat of Greece. They do learn from mistakes.

It just made me chuckle. The EU learned their lesson, did they change the rules? Nah, just stopped enforcing them!

[silentbrown]

Murph7355 said:

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that a referendum will be held in that time frame. I'm doubtful, but it's possible. However of the EU holds some of those things up as pre-requisites, do you really think we'd vote for it?

As now, we'd be unlikely to know the terms of readmission before any referendum... You'd hopefully want a second referendum on rejoining if eurozone membership suddenly appeared as non-negotiable, regardless of the "will of the people".

[ElectricSoup]

SpeckledJim said:

ElectricSoup said:

Scotland might once they're independent after Brexit though. Looks a much more attractive option now.

Crossing the threads now, but would (if Scotland were somehow to be independent after Brexit) Spain let them in?

Perhaps if by then the Catalan question has been solved by their secession, then perhaps Spain won't be obstructive. But if Catalan secession has prompted the Basques to rattle their sabres, then the Spanish might be desperate to keep the Scots out.

I'd have thought?

Lots of things need to happen between now and then for that to be important.

Non-issue.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-wont-block-s...

[Sway]

Still no one willing to state what question the people calling for another referendum want - nor what extra level of information and mandate that will provide the government.

Is it 'leave, leave' or just 'leave'. 'stay, stay' or 'kinda stay'?

Or is it 'fk em leave' or 'that'll do leave'?

[ElectricSoup]

Sway said:

Still no one willing to state what question the people calling for another referendum want - nor what extra level of information and mandate that will provide the government.

Is it 'leave, leave' or just 'leave'. 'stay, stay' or 'kinda stay'?

Or is it 'fk em leave' or 'that'll do leave'?

We need three options:

1 - Leave with deal negotiated by UK Government/EU
2 - Leave with no deal
3 - Remain

Only announce this referendum after negotiations have taken place so as not to jeopardise them.

2 rounds of voting, lowest scored option out first.

This would put the issue to bed for a generation. Nothing else can do that. Despite the fact I don't like referendums, I do believe that what has been started by one, must be finished with one.

[silentbrown]

ElectricSoup said:

2 rounds of voting, lowest scored option out first.

Single transferable vote, so votes for the lowest scored get redistributed to the next preference?

[ElectricSoup]

silentbrown said:

ElectricSoup said:

2 rounds of voting, lowest scored option out first.

Single transferable vote, so votes for the lowest scored get redistributed to the next preference?

Could work. I slightly fear the ruling party trying to rig that, so would tend to prefer two rounds, but it's another option, yes.

[98elise]

Zod said:

SpeckledJim said:

In a new referendum, I believe virtually everyone who voted first time would vote again, and almost none of them have changed their minds.

Then on remain side, you can add the kids who didn't realise it was happening first time round, or did realise but didn't really care - lots of them would turn out for another referendum.

Matching them on the leave side are the casual leavers who didn't vote first time because they didn't think a win was really possible, and other leavers who will have been mobilised by the words and deeds from Brussels in the last year, and who will want to counter the increased engagement of the youth.

I think it would be close, again.

Not that it's going to happen.

You are forgetting the dead Leave voters.

And the dead leave voters?

[Sway]

ElectricSoup said:

Sway said:

Still no one willing to state what question the people calling for another referendum want - nor what extra level of information and mandate that will provide the government.

Is it 'leave, leave' or just 'leave'. 'stay, stay' or 'kinda stay'?

Or is it 'fk em leave' or 'that'll do leave'?

We need three options:

1 - Leave with deal negotiated by UK Government/EU
2 - Leave with no deal
3 - Remain

Only announce this referendum after negotiations have taken place so as not to jeopardise them.

2 rounds of voting, lowest scored option out first.

This would put the issue to bed for a generation. Nothing else can do that. Despite the fact I don't like referendums, I do believe that what has been started by one, must be finished with one.

Remain under what terms? Or are you assuming that in a bilateral agreement to revoke Article 50 the terms would be as per pre-June 16?

Is that not just as much an assumption as that which drove a perceived vote for Leave based upon the belief that a bilateral comprehensive trade deal was achievable, and that most remain supporters now feel is impossible?

[ElectricSoup]

Sway said:

ElectricSoup said:

Sway said:

Still no one willing to state what question the people calling for another referendum want - nor what extra level of information and mandate that will provide the government.

Is it 'leave, leave' or just 'leave'. 'stay, stay' or 'kinda stay'?

Or is it 'fk em leave' or 'that'll do leave'?

We need three options:

1 - Leave with deal negotiated by UK Government/EU
2 - Leave with no deal
3 - Remain

Only announce this referendum after negotiations have taken place so as not to jeopardise them.

2 rounds of voting, lowest scored option out first.

This would put the issue to bed for a generation. Nothing else can do that. Despite the fact I don't like referendums, I do believe that what has been started by one, must be finished with one.

Remain under what terms? Or are you assuming that in a bilateral agreement to revoke Article 50 the terms would be as per pre-June 16?

Is that not just as much an assumption as that which drove a perceived vote for Leave based upon the belief that a bilateral comprehensive trade deal was achievable, and that most remain supporters now feel is impossible?

Well everything's an assumption in this hypothetical discussion, I am certainly in no position to write the terms of a second referendum and guarantee them for you as I'm not in government, but my assumption would be Remain on existing terms. We are still on pre-June 16 terms, so Remain, to my mind, would mean Remain on those terms. Remain means Remain. That's got a ring to it.

The EU is still consistently saying the door is open to us to Remain if we choose to do so. There don't seem to be any conditions attached to that and I wouldn't expect any.

[Sway]

Is that a good enough assumption to base yet another disruptive referendum?

[ElectricSoup]

Sway said:

Is that a good enough assumption to base yet another disruptive referendum?

I don't know. But it's a good enough one for the purposes of this discussion, I'd have thought. Unless you have some indication or evidence that it's a poor assumption?