The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Mrr T]

Dr Jekyll said:

Mrr T said:

My post was a request for our tanned PH CD to tell us what these fantastic opportunities are? New trade deal are opportunities they are not fantastic opportunities.

Just want team leave to give some real example of fantastic opportunities which will exist only because of brexit.

Opportunities to strike trade deals with any country in the world. To stop charging ludicrous tariffs on agricultural imports. To lift all import tariffs if we want to.

So which countries are these that the EU does not have deals with?

So with world food prices lower than most UK food production costs how will you deal with the UK agriculture which will no longer be economic?

[Sway]

As I predicted, steady drip of special interest groups 'demanding' special treatment.

What will be the priority is what is best for all, not the few.

What's the Welsh farming industry's value, gross and net of subsidies? That's the only real consideration if it's going to heavily influence the negotiation team's targets...

[Dr Jekyll]

Mrr T said:

So which countries are these that the EU does not have deals with?

Major ones are:

China
India
Japan
Pakistan
Taiwan
USA

So that's something over 1/3rd of the worlds population right there.

Mrr T said:

So with world food prices lower than most UK food production costs how will you deal with the UK agriculture which will no longer be economic?

If it isn't economic why deal with it at all? If you do want to subsidise UK agriculture do so honestly not by tariffs that impoverish African farmers and low income UK consumers just to keep the French happy.
Maybe if subsidies were stopped UK agriculture would restructure to become economic as happened in New Zealand.

In any case, Swallows and Amazons rule applies.

[Burwood]

Wales exports far more to the rest of the world than it does the EU

[Digga]

Burwood said:

Wales exports far more to the rest of the world than it does the EU

And they're not constantly whingeing about independence. Plus they make fine whisky too.

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

Burwood said:

Wales exports far more to the rest of the world than it does the EU

And they're not constantly whingeing about independence. Plus they make fine whisky too.

Fair points, then again there's the Kinnocks.

[B'stard Child]

Digga said:

FN2TypeR said:

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

I keep hearing this from tanned PH company directors but none of them ever seem to be able to tell us what these fantastic new opportunities are.

You really can't imagine a scenario where free trade agreements open up greater possibilities for importers to reduce their costs? Or exporters to be newly competitive in foreign markets?

If someone is not an entrepreneurial, they will struggle with the concept of risk (even where there is potential reward) and will constantly fail to spot opportunities. It's simple.

I agree we may get some new trade agreement in 7-8 years, mind you we have to replace the ones we loose by leaving the SM.

Other than that its just words and team leave have no idea.

Give 'em a call, no doubt they will be clamouring to sign you up.

Sure to be a role there for "chief naysayer and stick-in-the-mud".

Nope already taken by slasher...........

Mind you Mrr T runs him a close second

[B'stard Child]

Gargamel said:

Junkcer again in a massive failure of self awareness. A large part of the reason for Brexit is Junkcer's total refusal to negotiate prior to the referendum. Had he LED the EU to some proper talks and an agreement with Cameron, then arguably the UK might not have voted out.

Oh woe, its a failure and a tragedy - yes Claude - its YOUR failure

And he has already provided his excuse

Junkers said:

Much as I would have liked to respond factually and truthfully to each and every piece of misinformation spread by the Brexit campaign, it was important that I stayed out of the domestic political debate. It was David Cameron's task to win the UK referendum, not ours.

[Burwood]

B'stard Child said:

Gargamel said:

Junkcer again in a massive failure of self awareness. A large part of the reason for Brexit is Junkcer's total refusal to negotiate prior to the referendum. Had he LED the EU to some proper talks and an agreement with Cameron, then arguably the UK might not have voted out.

Oh woe, its a failure and a tragedy - yes Claude - its YOUR failure

And he has already provided his excuse

Junkers said:

Much as I would have liked to respond factually and truthfully to each and every piece of misinformation spread by the Brexit campaign, it was important that I stayed out of the domestic political debate. It was David Cameron's task to win the UK referendum, not ours.

except he did wade in at the 11th hour to remind us all that a leave vote = good shoeing. Ironicaly that helped leave over the line

[B'stard Child]

Burwood said:

B'stard Child said:

Gargamel said:

Junkcer again in a massive failure of self awareness. A large part of the reason for Brexit is Junkcer's total refusal to negotiate prior to the referendum. Had he LED the EU to some proper talks and an agreement with Cameron, then arguably the UK might not have voted out.

Oh woe, its a failure and a tragedy - yes Claude - its YOUR failure

And he has already provided his excuse

Junkers said:

Much as I would have liked to respond factually and truthfully to each and every piece of misinformation spread by the Brexit campaign, it was important that I stayed out of the domestic political debate. It was David Cameron's task to win the UK referendum, not ours.

except he did wade in at the 11th hour to remind us all that a leave vote = good shoeing. Ironicaly that helped leave over the line

well sometimes you take help from whatever source......

[OzzyR1]

An interesting article and one I agree with (as far as opinions of Juncker go at least!)

Jean-Claude Juncker is now the hardest Brexiter there is:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/jean-claude-ju...

Edited by OzzyR1 on Friday 24th March 13:52

[Burwood]

OzzyR1 said:

An interesting article and one I agree with (as far as opinions of Juncker go at least!)

Jean-Claude Juncker is now the hardest Brexiter there is:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/jean-claude-ju...

Edited by OzzyR1 on Friday 24th March 13:52

I'm sure that would be his intention/wish. To inflict harm. However countries like Germany, with so much to lose also will be the big influencers.

[Sway]

Mrr T said:

So with world food prices lower than most UK food production costs how will you deal with the UK agriculture which will no longer be economic?

You need to look at the types of agricultural production.

The UK really doesn't do mass production. What it does do well is specialised and high quality - for the things we are able to produce. Hence we've never really competed on price.

The introduction of the Single Market exacerbated that - especially things like poultry, where Poland as an example has vastly lower welfare standards, as well as lower criteria for terms like 'free range', where they can claim their climate precludes it.

Then we get onto stuff that we cannot produce, or our season is massively shorter.

Chillies from Kenya.
Sweet potatoes from the US or Honduras.
Asparagus from Chile, where they have vast microclimate terraces that mean they can harvest virtually all year round.

Cereals in the great plains of the US.
Decent (but not 'special') beef from Australia.

All these things can be significantly cheaper for consumers, without really impacting UK producers. They focus on 'made in Britain' crops (British summer strawberries), specialist high quality and rare breed versions of beef, pork, lamb and poultry.

This really is an example where there are clear complimentary industries globally to improve things for our consumers and businesses, without very much downside at all...

[Garvin]

With due credit to Monty Python's Life of Brian there are Remainers on here who are beginning to sound like they belong to the People's Front of the EU - but apart from the new trade deals, the control of our borders, escape from the ludicrous decisions of the ECHR, the saving of the net contribution to the EU, the abandonment of the unelected EU Commission, the removal of unnecessary and unwanted rules and regulations . . . . . . what have the Brexiteers ever done for us?

I wonder if they will join their 'sister' organisation, the EU People's front - I, for one, damn well hope so!

[B'stard Child]

Garvin said:

With due credit to Monty Python's Life of Brian there are Remainers on here who are beginning to sound like they belong to the People's Front of the EU - but apart from the new trade deals, the control of our borders, escape from the ludicrous decisions of the ECHR, the saving of the net contribution to the EU, the abandonment of the unelected EU Commission, the removal of unnecessary and unwanted rules and regulations . . . . . . what have the Brexiteers ever done for us?

Garvin said:

I wonder if they will join their 'sister' organisation, the EU People's front - I, for one, damn well hope so!

Splitters

[Mrr T]

Sway said:

All these things can be significantly cheaper for consumers, without really impacting UK producers. They focus on 'made in Britain' crops (British summer strawberries), specialist high quality and rare breed versions of beef, pork, lamb and poultry.

I am no expert on modern British farming but I suspect the above is rubbish.

My guess is no more than 5% of British agriculture is in specialist products.

[maffski]

Mrr T said:

...how will you deal with the UK agriculture which will no longer be economic?

The same way you deal with anything that is no longer economic? By not doing it.

JawKnee said:

Single Market access is "critical" says kipper.

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-03-24/ukip-acce...

Person whose job relies on the opinion of Welsh famers says 'Welsh farmers opinions matter'

[Sway]

Mrr T said:

Sway said:

All these things can be significantly cheaper for consumers, without really impacting UK producers. They focus on 'made in Britain' crops (British summer strawberries), specialist high quality and rare breed versions of beef, pork, lamb and poultry.

I am no expert on modern British farming but I suspect the above is rubbish.

My guess is no more than 5% of British agriculture is in specialist products.

You can suspect all you want, but I have worked in modern British farming, including winning two British best factory awards for efficiency in farming/packhouse operations.

Those firms solely work in specialised produce (semi exotic and exotics), and have farming land covering more than a million acres across five countries in the UK, Spain, Mexico, Kenya and Chile.

UK production is very different from UK produce...

Note I also stated about the non-UK sourcable produce, and the 'high quality/welfare if not specialist' market.

Don't let the 'poor tenant dairy farmer' crying into his cereal bowl at 3am every morning fool you...

[Blackpuddin]

Juncker and his ilk have finally worked out that stretching out the detachment process guarantees them 'work' (for which read champagne) for the next however many years.

[JawKnee]

maffski said:

JawKnee said:

Single Market access is "critical" says kipper.

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-03-24/ukip-acce...

Person whose job relies on the opinion of Welsh famers says 'Welsh farmers opinions matter'

A bit like the gushing crocodile tears from Brexiteers last June for this country's fishermen.