The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[gizlaroc]

///ajd said:

You can argue the % and the times to look at.

Bottom line - we performed well in the EU relative to our peers. Look how we compare to FR since the 1970s. Look how we were worse before.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

Now with all these fantastic opportunities for free trade with x, y, z, we'll zoom off even faster, yes?

Many would argue 'Yes'.

Did anyone read the report I posted yesterday?


http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/mythandpar...

It really is worth a read.

[Mrr T]

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

Missed it but:
China – Only interesting in exporting
India – Only interesting in exporting
Japan – Only interesting in exporting
Pakistan – Very poor
Taiwan - Only interesting in exporting
USA - Only interesting in exporting

So reply is just a list with no explanation why they offer such fabulous opportunities.

A Taiwanese company flew me to Taiwan and put me up in a top hotel for a week so I could offer them advice on how to look after their imported British products, they tried to recruit me to relocate to Taipei and run the operation.

But yeh, Taiwan are not interested in importing British goods.

Look back and set my comments in context. I never suggested FTA would not increase trade.

The poster I queried said Brexit would bring "fabulous" opportunities. One reason I support the EEA/EFTA Brexit option is that we can then negotiate paperless access to the CU and leave the CU and then negotiate our own trade agreements.

I believe this will benefit the UK but not "fabulous".

[LasseV]

hyphen said:

How much of this 230 million Euros was funded by a grant from the Finnish innovation fund, Tekes?

None.

[///ajd]

vonuber said:

One good thing from Brexit is that pret- who employ mainly eu nationals- have realised they need to de-risk brecht and so are offering some decent, well paid training and experience to teenagers.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/25/p...

Oh no, wait - it's a weeks free labour.

Yes, not much discussion on these wages for "UK nationals" at Pret.

Presumably this is now immigrants fault for NOT coming to the UK.

[Murph7355]

Mrr T said:

...
The poster I queried said Brexit would bring "fabulous" opportunities. One reason I support the EEA/EFTA Brexit option is that we can then negotiate paperless access to the CU and leave the CU and then negotiate our own trade agreements.
...

It may just be me, but I'm not understanding the bold bit

CU = Customs' Union I'm assuming.

I can't figure out whether you're saying to be in or out of it. And I thought being in (the Customs Union) meant we could not organise our own FTAs elsewhere? (It would actually make no logical sense to allow it as you'd be giving non-CU countries a potential route in on the sly ).

[davepoth]

///ajd said:

vonuber said:

One good thing from Brexit is that pret- who employ mainly eu nationals- have realised they need to de-risk brecht and so are offering some decent, well paid training and experience to teenagers.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/25/p...

Oh no, wait - it's a weeks free labour.

Yes, not much discussion on these wages for "UK nationals" at Pret.

Presumably this is now immigrants fault for NOT coming to the UK.

The Guardian is (how surprisingly) being naughty here. It's work experience, and when I was 16 and did work experience I wasn't paid. I didn't do much work either, it was mainly a week of being passed around departments while people showed me what spreadsheets they typed things into.

Ironically, the only thing I did get competent at was making the tea.

[///ajd]

davepoth said:

The Guardian is (how surprisingly) being naughty here. It's work experience, and when I was 16 and did work experience I wasn't paid. I didn't do much work either, it was mainly a week of being passed around departments while people showed me what spreadsheets they typed things into.

Ironically, the only thing I did get competent at was making the tea.

It is still counter to the hollow brexiteer promise of increasing low paid wages - not that Pret are even below min wage anyway as from previous posts.

[Dr Jekyll]

Murph7355 said:

And I thought being in (the Customs Union) meant we could not organise our own FTAs elsewhere? (It would actually make no logical sense to allow it as you'd be giving non-CU countries a potential route in on the sly ).

+1

That's the definition of a customs union as opposed to an FTA.

[davepoth]

///ajd said:

It is still counter to the hollow brexiteer promise of increasing low paid wages - not that Pret are even below min wage anyway as from previous posts.

I don't recall anything about work experience days in either campaign, could you point me to a link please?

What this announcement by Pret shows is that they've realised that they'll have to get UK teenagers into their shops. What this scheme will tell them is that they will need to make their offer significantly more compelling to do so.

[confused_buyer]

Murph7355 said:

It may just be me, but I'm not understanding the bold bit

CU = Customs' Union I'm assuming.

I can't figure out whether you're saying to be in or out of it. And I thought being in (the Customs Union) meant we could not organise our own FTAs elsewhere? (It would actually make no logical sense to allow it as you'd be giving non-CU countries a potential route in on the sly ).

The current EEA/EFTA members are not in the Customs Union. They are in the Single Market but not Customs. They can therefore, and indeed do, negotiate their own FTAs.

So, to take that to it's logical inclusion if we went the "Norway" option we would be able to have FTAs. What I find worrying is that a lot of leading politicians when talking about it do not seem to realise this - there are customs stops between Sweden and Norway.

Edited by confused_buyer on Saturday 25th March 12:15

Edited by confused_buyer on Saturday 25th March 12:16

[don'tbesilly]

gizlaroc said:

///ajd said:

You can argue the % and the times to look at.

Bottom line - we performed well in the EU relative to our peers. Look how we compare to FR since the 1970s. Look how we were worse before.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD...

Now with all these fantastic opportunities for free trade with x, y, z, we'll zoom off even faster, yes?

Many would argue 'Yes'.

Did anyone read the report I posted yesterday?


http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/mythandpar...

It really is worth a read.

It is an interesting read, however ///ajd will have scanned through realised it didn't suit the agenda/bias & moved on after finding more doom & gloom from the usual rags, the Guardian/Independent, full of 'might's'/'maybe's'/ 'if's' and 'but's' which when examined and questioned paint a picture of anything but which ///ajd implies and would appear to desire.

[don'tbesilly]

She looks quite chipper.

Nice day in London for a pointless crusade led by a pointless individual namely Tim (nice but dim) Farron.

Roll on the 29th March

[Murph7355]

confused_buyer said:

The current EEA/EFTA members are not in the Customs Union. They are in the Single Market but not Customs. They can therefore, and indeed do, negotiate their own FTAs.

So, to take that to it's logical inclusion if we went the "Norway" option we would be able to have FTAs. What I find worrying is that a lot of leading politicians when talking about it do not seem to realise this - there are customs stops between Sweden and Norway.
...

Latterly the bigger issues people have raised seem to have been customs checks and delays to the movement of goods. Which means being part of the customs union though. No?

Or are we acknowledging that it is eminently possibly not to be a labelled part of the customs union but still manage these things sensibly? (I'm referring to MrrT's post specifically. He may have mixed letters up I guess).

[///ajd]

Some important points made here

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com...

- 50% of new taxi comes into UK
- brexit pound fall already due to hit new taxi profits
- hard brexit could put >£2k on cost of UK car

Overall message is a deal is needed to protect the sector.

[Mrr T]

confused_buyer said:

Murph7355 said:

It may just be me, but I'm not understanding the bold bit

CU = Customs' Union I'm assuming.

I can't figure out whether you're saying to be in or out of it. And I thought being in (the Customs Union) meant we could not organise our own FTAs elsewhere? (It would actually make no logical sense to allow it as you'd be giving non-CU countries a potential route in on the sly ).

The current EEA/EFTA members are not in the Customs Union. They are in the Single Market but not Customs. They can therefore, and indeed do, negotiate their own FTAs.

So, to take that to it's logical inclusion if we went the "Norway" option we would be able to have FTAs. What I find worrying is that a lot of leading politicians when talking about it do not seem to realise this - there are customs stops between Sweden and Norway.

Edited by confused_buyer on Saturday 25th March 12:15

Edited by confused_buyer on Saturday 25th March 12:16

In my view it's essential we keep the channel ports and tunnel, and the Irish border open and frictionless.

Customs borders are about 3 things, mutual recognition of standards, tarriffs, and processing.

In my view 1 and 2 are best covered by remaining in EEA via EFTA. It's then down to processing. It might require the UK to remain in the CU on Brexit. Then when the UK has agreed access to the paperless customs processing, has made sure our system can cope, that Dover, Calais, and Ireland N and S are ready we can withdraw from the CU.

[Sway]

///ajd said:

Some important points made here

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com...

- 50% of new taxi comes into UK
- brexit pound fall already due to hit new taxi profits
- hard brexit could put >£2k on cost of UK car

Overall message is a deal is needed to protect the sector.

As I keep saying, virtually every sector will be looking to influence the outcome of the negotiations to suit themselves.

Some would far prefer a 'hard' Brexit.

Of course, you're very willing to put up your 'concerns',but when challenged aren't willing to put your personal odds of 'hard' Brexit.

I've offered evens that we'll get a broad FTA including FS sector. No one who's throwing up these myriad 'concerns' has yet been willing to take those odds...

[///ajd]

Sway said:

///ajd said:

Some important points made here

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com...

- 50% of new taxi comes into UK
- brexit pound fall already due to hit new taxi profits
- hard brexit could put >£2k on cost of UK car

Overall message is a deal is needed to protect the sector.

As I keep saying, virtually every sector will be looking to influence the outcome of the negotiations to suit themselves.

Some would far prefer a 'hard' Brexit.

Of course, you're very willing to put up your 'concerns',but when challenged aren't willing to put your personal odds of 'hard' Brexit.

I've offered evens that we'll get a broad FTA including FS sector. No one who's throwing up these myriad 'concerns' has yet been willing to take those odds...

Look its just some analysis that can be discussed - it puts some of the bks talked about the fall in the pound in context. £2k on car is a shed load given how tight margins are.

It makes a compelling case for a deal.

Instead of wailing and crapping themselves with fake bravado about "lets make the best of it", it would be better if those that pretend to care made the case that no deal will be catastrophic.

[confused_buyer]

Murph7355 said:

Latterly the bigger issues people have raised seem to have been customs checks and delays to the movement of goods. Which means being part of the customs union though. No?

Yes. What I find depressing is when you get politicians and commentators advocating the EEA/EFTA option because "it will mean no customs controls". Umm......no....but they slick way they do it over thousands of miles of Norway/Sweden border might be a suitable model.

[Sway]

///ajd said:

Sway said:

///ajd said:

Some important points made here

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com...

- 50% of new taxi comes into UK
- brexit pound fall already due to hit new taxi profits
- hard brexit could put >£2k on cost of UK car

Overall message is a deal is needed to protect the sector.

As I keep saying, virtually every sector will be looking to influence the outcome of the negotiations to suit themselves.

Some would far prefer a 'hard' Brexit.

Of course, you're very willing to put up your 'concerns',but when challenged aren't willing to put your personal odds of 'hard' Brexit.

I've offered evens that we'll get a broad FTA including FS sector. No one who's throwing up these myriad 'concerns' has yet been willing to take those odds...

Look its just some analysis that can be discussed - it puts some of the bks talked about the fall in the pound in context. £2k on car is a shed load given how tight margins are.

It makes a compelling case for a deal.

Instead of wailing and crapping themselves with fake bravado about "lets make the best of it", it would be better if those that pretend to care made the case that no deal will be catastrophic.

Here you go again...

'just a discussion point', yet once again you resort to 'bks talked about the fall in the pound'.

I've posted a few times about the experiences post Brexit result for my client. There have been many pointing out similar. Including the article yesterday about a huge surge in tourism.

You ignore every one, or try to counter it with negativity. Every single time.

You then revert to 'Brexiteers', as though that's even remotely representative of those posting on here, or in the wider world.

There's very little blind optimism, but rather a lot of blind negativity. It's tiresome to the extreme.

[FN2TypeR]

Sway said:

Here you go again...

'just a discussion point', yet once again you resort to 'bks talked about the fall in the pound'.

I've posted a few times about the experiences post Brexit result for my client. There have been many pointing out similar. Including the article yesterday about a huge surge in tourism.

You ignore every one, or try to counter it with negativity. Every single time.

You then revert to 'Brexiteers', as though that's even remotely representative of those posting on here, or in the wider world.

There's very little blind optimism, but rather a lot of blind negativity. It's tiresome to the extreme.

How dare he post articles or information that align with his point of view.

///ajd you disgust me.