The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
Mrr T said:
skahigh said:
Mrr T said:
“What did everyone expect”
I think you will find out the dream leave team, DD,BJ,LF, expected something very different. The government even published a white paper saying something completely different.
It seems while the EU council where silent between the referendum and art 50 the EU council they were doing a lot of planning. Whereas our department for leaving the EU under the chief brexit buffoon was making up slogans and posing for pictures in front of a union jack.
WhitepaperI think you will find out the dream leave team, DD,BJ,LF, expected something very different. The government even published a white paper saying something completely different.
It seems while the EU council where silent between the referendum and art 50 the EU council they were doing a lot of planning. Whereas our department for leaving the EU under the chief brexit buffoon was making up slogans and posing for pictures in front of a union jack.
Government whitepaper section 12 said:
Delivering a smooth, mutually beneficial exit will require a coherent and coordinated approach on both sides. We want to avoid a disruptive cliff-edge, and we should consider the need for phasing in any new arrangements we require as the UK and the EU move towards a new partnership.
????It now seems we will only leave the EU in 2022. If that’s not a change of mind what is?
You made a statement that if I understood it correctly, appears to be remarkably simple to prove as completely false.
How do you think I quoted out of context? The context is the entire white paper (the link I conveniently put in my post) which, funnily enough, you brought up.
Also, what about the following is not completely clear?
Section 12.2 said:
From that point onwards, we believe a phased process of implementation, in which the UK, the EU institutions and Member States prepare for the new arrangements that will exist between us, will be in our mutual interest. This will give businesses enough time to plan and prepare for those new arrangements. This might be about our immigration controls, customs systems or the way in which we cooperate on criminal and civil justice matters. Or it might be about the future legal and regulatory framework for business. For each issue, the time we need to phase in the new arrangements may differ; some might be introduced very quickly, some might take longer. And the interim arrangements we rely upon are likely to be a matter of negotiation.
skahigh said:
Also, what about the following is not completely clear?
You missed the preceeding section?Section 12.2 said:
From that point onwards, we believe a phased process of implementation, in which the UK, the EU institutions and Member States prepare for the new arrangements that will exist between us, will be in our mutual interest. This will give businesses enough time to plan and prepare for those new arrangements. This might be about our immigration controls, customs systems or the way in which we cooperate on criminal and civil justice matters. Or it might be about the future legal and regulatory framework for business. For each issue, the time we need to phase in the new arrangements may differ; some might be introduced very quickly, some might take longer. And the interim arrangements we rely upon are likely to be a matter of negotiation.
Section 12.1 said:
We will formally trigger the process of leaving the EU by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union no later than the end of March this year. As set out in Article 50, the Treaties of the EU will cease to apply to the UK when the withdrawal agreement enters into force, or failing that, two years from the day we submit our notification, unless there is a unanimous agreement with the other 27 Member States to extend the process.
Mrr T said:
skahigh said:
Also, what about the following is not completely clear?
You missed the preceeding section?Section 12.2 said:
From that point onwards, we believe a phased process of implementation, in which the UK, the EU institutions and Member States prepare for the new arrangements that will exist between us, will be in our mutual interest. This will give businesses enough time to plan and prepare for those new arrangements. This might be about our immigration controls, customs systems or the way in which we cooperate on criminal and civil justice matters. Or it might be about the future legal and regulatory framework for business. For each issue, the time we need to phase in the new arrangements may differ; some might be introduced very quickly, some might take longer. And the interim arrangements we rely upon are likely to be a matter of negotiation.
Section 12.1 said:
We will formally trigger the process of leaving the EU by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union no later than the end of March this year. As set out in Article 50, the Treaties of the EU will cease to apply to the UK when the withdrawal agreement enters into force, or failing that, two years from the day we submit our notification, unless there is a unanimous agreement with the other 27 Member States to extend the process.
There is no shift in the statements being reported today compared to the White Paper, and bringing up press articles to support that assertion is a tad weak when your claim was very specific...
Sway said:
Real comprehension failures here - that paragraph you've quoted as contradicting the one after it is absolutely true. Any transition agreement as part of the overall future relationship agreement will not by definition be the Treaties of the EU (so Lisbon, Maastricht, etc.).
There is no shift in the statements being reported today compared to the White Paper, and bringing up press articles to support that assertion is a tad weak when your claim was very specific...
You are missing the point.There is no shift in the statements being reported today compared to the White Paper, and bringing up press articles to support that assertion is a tad weak when your claim was very specific...
UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
Real comprehension failures here - that paragraph you've quoted as contradicting the one after it is absolutely true. Any transition agreement as part of the overall future relationship agreement will not by definition be the Treaties of the EU (so Lisbon, Maastricht, etc.).
There is no shift in the statements being reported today compared to the White Paper, and bringing up press articles to support that assertion is a tad weak when your claim was very specific...
You are missing the point.There is no shift in the statements being reported today compared to the White Paper, and bringing up press articles to support that assertion is a tad weak when your claim was very specific...
UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.
WinstonWolf said:
""It seems that for the most part Brexit is not just the hideous social and political turn we have taken as a country but is also comedic poison.""Is he really this unaware? amazing.
jsf said:
WinstonWolf said:
""It seems that for the most part Brexit is not just the hideous social and political turn we have taken as a country but is also comedic poison.""Is he really this unaware? amazing.
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
Real comprehension failures here - that paragraph you've quoted as contradicting the one after it is absolutely true. Any transition agreement as part of the overall future relationship agreement will not by definition be the Treaties of the EU (so Lisbon, Maastricht, etc.).
There is no shift in the statements being reported today compared to the White Paper, and bringing up press articles to support that assertion is a tad weak when your claim was very specific...
You are missing the point.There is no shift in the statements being reported today compared to the White Paper, and bringing up press articles to support that assertion is a tad weak when your claim was very specific...
UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.
On the post I've quoted - the EU's position has changed massively. The original wording against step 2 was "complete", now it's a vague "substantial progress".
Step 3 - there's no implication that a transitional agreement means that it's three years of full EU membership obligations, it's been stated as being a roadway where we bring back full control of different areas at different times through that transition period - which is what I believe you've been arguing for, and now are complaining that the EU and UK both agree?
So no, not all Treaties will apply until 2022. Indeed legally none will apply, although some terms of some of the Treaties will be copied across into the transition agreement (except with the important legal difference of having an end date against them).
May does sound like she agrees with decent chunks of what the EU is proposing as the timeline and steps, which isn't a surprise as they are thr pragmatic and logical steps to occur. As always, the devil will be in the detail - such as "substantial progress" meaning a recognition of the legal validity of liability sharing being balanced with asset sharing. The term divorce keeps being used.
Then of course you have the (poorly worded, but sufficient for this crucial aspect) Article 50 terms, which state pretty clearly that the future relationship must be considered as part of the EU Council and Parliament's ratification process - which by default means that they'll have to have the broad outlines of the desired relationship agreed by the end of the two years...
nigel farage having a friendly chat with the EU
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2U16waR2Jg
Interestingly the main focus of the EU is money, that's all they are interested in, putting it top of the agenda.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2U16waR2Jg
Interestingly the main focus of the EU is money, that's all they are interested in, putting it top of the agenda.
PRTVR said:
nigel farage having a friendly chat with the EU
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2U16waR2Jg
Interestingly the main focus of the EU is money, that's all they are interested in, putting it top of the agenda.
I don't agree with most of what his party stands for but the man is 100% spot on.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2U16waR2Jg
Interestingly the main focus of the EU is money, that's all they are interested in, putting it top of the agenda.
PRTVR said:
Interestingly the main focus of the EU is money, that's all they are interested in, putting it top of the agenda.
Their concern is that when confronted with a massive hole in their budget there will be a huge argument tearing the remaining 27 apart. It will happen eventually but the longer they can delay it the better as far as they are concerned.Either some countries will have to put a lot more in, the EU will have to do less and many countries receive less or - horror of horrors for many - some net recipients will have to become contributors.
Mrr T said:
You are missing the point.
UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
3. After the transition period, finally leave the EU
rEU Plan
1a. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
1b. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
2. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
3. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
I have edited your post above to illustrate that the two sides are actually rather close together on their aspirations for the process and timing, despite your efforts to find a yawning gap that doesn't exist.UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
3. After the transition period, finally leave the EU
rEU Plan
1a. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
1b. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
2. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
3. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Mrr T said:
You are missing the point.
UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.
Maybe some transition arrangements = their time tables aren't all that far apart in actuality but you feel the need to try and make a meal out of the situation anyway, I take it. UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
And yet the 24 billion pound UK/EU trade deficit in just the first 3 months of 2016 alone, dwarf any benefits the UK has derived from being in the EU.
If this is added to the almost 40 years that the UK has run a billions of pounds a year trade deficit with the EU, the benefits for the UK as a whole of being in the EU are somewhat in deeply negative territory.
Still as long as `some' business have made a little by being in the EU, it really doesn't matter about the UK as a whole, does it?
I'm not sure what point you are making.If this is added to the almost 40 years that the UK has run a billions of pounds a year trade deficit with the EU, the benefits for the UK as a whole of being in the EU are somewhat in deeply negative territory.
Still as long as `some' business have made a little by being in the EU, it really doesn't matter about the UK as a whole, does it?
Are you claiming the UK would have produced those imported goods in house had we not been members of the EU.
I think he's pointing out that, in terms of trade, the rest of the EU members have done better out of the UK than we have done out of them.
There are obviously many reasons for this but clearly our membership has benefited them more than it has us, or at least some of them, in terms of trade.
It also means that no deal, or a bad deal, will hurt them at least as much as it will us. I'm sure they know that, and that an equitable deal is possible, but it's becoming clear that some of the EU politicians might be prepared to seriously damage their own people and other members' people, in the cause of revenge.
Mrr T said:
You are missing the point.
UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.
The interesting thing here is that we will not have "fully left" until after the next election. UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.
rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.
Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.
Just one year into our transition arrangements, we will go to the polls.
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