The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[B'stard Child]

///ajd said:

Mrr T said:

You are missing the point.

UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.

rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.

Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.

The interesting thing here is that we will not have "fully left" until after the next election.

Just one year into our transition arrangements, we will go to the polls.

Alternative view

In 6 - 8 mths time the negotiations will be deemed by UK gov to be a complete waste of time - the most important aspect of the negotiation (right to remain for both UK in EU and UE in UK) will have been sorted

And we will leave - they will whistle for the divorce settlement

[Burwood]

B'stard Child said:

///ajd said:

Mrr T said:

You are missing the point.

UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.

rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.

Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.

The interesting thing here is that we will not have "fully left" until after the next election.

Just one year into our transition arrangements, we will go to the polls.

Alternative view

In 6 - 8 mths time the negotiations will be deemed by UK gov to be a complete waste of time - the most important aspect of the negotiation (right to remain for both UK in EU and UE in UK) will have been sorted

And we will leave - they will whistle for the divorce settlement

Indeed, if the EU act like idiots. Up sticks and leave. I have a feeling they need the money
As I've always said. The tail doesn't wag the dog

[Burwood]

B'stard Child said:

///ajd said:

Mrr T said:

You are missing the point.

UK Government Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit and an FTA.
2. Leave in 2019 with maybe some transition arrangements.

rEU Plan
1. 2 years to negotiate the exit.
2. Once substantial progress has been made on 1 about we can start on the FTA.
3. Post 2019 for 3 years transition arrangements where the UK remains effectively part of the rEU (with FOML) but with no voting rights while FTA is finalised.
4. 2022 finally leave the EU.
So all treaties will apply till 2022 except we get no votes in the EU council.

Today TM seemed to suggest they will agree the EU plan.

The interesting thing here is that we will not have "fully left" until after the next election.

Just one year into our transition arrangements, we will go to the polls.

Alternative view

In 6 - 8 mths time the negotiations will be deemed by UK gov to be a complete waste of time - the most important aspect of the negotiation (right to remain for both UK in EU and UE in UK) will have been sorted

And we will leave - they will whistle for the divorce settlement

Indeed, if the EU act like idiots. Up sticks and leave. I have a feeling they need the money
As I've always said. The tail doesn't wag the dog

[B'stard Child]

Burwood said:

Indeed, if the EU act like idiots. Up sticks and leave. I have a feeling they need the money
As I've always said. The tail doesn't wag the dog

I agree - both times

[alfie2244]

B'stard Child said:

Burwood said:

Indeed, if the EU act like idiots. Up sticks and leave. I have a feeling they need the money
As I've always said. The tail doesn't wag the dog

I agree - both times

Hear hear.

[KrissKross]

[Trabi601]

KrissKross said:

It's exactly this kind of backward looking nonsense that has brought us to where we are now.

The EU will lose our net contribution - but it's a drop in the ocean, equating to around £320m per member country per year. In EU budget terms this is the small change down the back of the sofa.

Same with the trade deficits, split everything between member countries, and you'll find we're not quite as significant as some think we are.

It's not 1950 anymore - and it's time that many of those 52% remembered this.

[alfie2244]

Trabi601 said:

It's exactly this kind of backward looking nonsense that has brought us to where we are now.

The EU will lose our net contribution - but it's a drop in the ocean, equating to around £320m per member country per year. In EU budget terms this is the small change down the back of the sofa.

Same with the trade deficits, split everything between member countries, and you'll find we're not quite as significant as some think we are.

It's not 1950 anymore - and it's time that many of those 52% remembered this.

Another red bus incoming for the miserable sods to whinge about

[B'stard Child]

Trabi601 said:

KrissKross said:

It's exactly this kind of backward looking nonsense that has brought us to where we are now.

<snip>

It's not 1950 anymore - and it's time that many of those 52% remembered this.

Actually it isn't that kind of backwards nonsense at all it was the inability of the EU to adapt and change that got us here - their only answer to adapt and change was more EU

It's 2017 and a protectionist trading block with desires on being an EuSSR is not going to cut it in the world - it time that many of those 48% started realsing this

copywrite sidkicks HTH

[anonymous-user]

KrissKross said:

-picture-

Badly dressed and unhealthy.
Genetically compromised.

Addicted to a habit that will kill it early.

[Trabi601]

B'stard Child said:

Actually it isn't that kind of backwards nonsense at all it was the inability of the EU to adapt and change that got us here - their only answer to adapt and change was more EU

It's 2017 and a protectionist trading block with desires on being an EuSSR is not going to cut it in the world - it time that many of those 48% started realsing this

copywrite sidkicks HTH

The laughable thing about all these claims of a 'protectionist trading bloc' is that most of those who claim this think nothing of creating a protectionist economy for the UK outside of the EU.

[B'stard Child]

Trabi601 said:

B'stard Child said:

Actually it isn't that kind of backwards nonsense at all it was the inability of the EU to adapt and change that got us here - their only answer to adapt and change was more EU

It's 2017 and a protectionist trading block with desires on being an EuSSR is not going to cut it in the world - it time that many of those 48% started realsing this

copywrite sidkicks HTH

The laughable thing about all these claims of a 'protectionist trading bloc' is that most of those who claim this think nothing of creating a protectionist economy for the UK outside of the EU.

Can't beat em join em

I only voted Leave so we could stop entering Eurovision

[KrissKross]

Trabi601 said:

It's exactly this kind of backward looking nonsense that has brought us to where we are now.

It's not 1950 anymore

[anonymous-user]

KrissKross said:

Another st picture

What's the relevance to the topic at hand?

[Trabi601]

KrissKross said:

Ahhh, you're one of those, aren't you.

"I want to leave Europe to stop those brown people coming here"

[KrissKross]

Trabi601 said:

Ahhh, you're one of those, aren't you.

One of millions.

[Rich_W]

confused_buyer said:

PRTVR said:

Interestingly the main focus of the EU is money, that's all they are interested in, putting it top of the agenda.

Their concern is that when confronted with a massive hole in their budget there will be a huge argument tearing the remaining 27 apart. It will happen eventually but the longer they can delay it the better as far as they are concerned.

Either some countries will have to put a lot more in, the EU will have to do less and many countries receive less or - horror of horrors for many - some net recipients will have to become contributors.

Pretty much. They somehow think that the mooted 50Bn will shore it up long enough to get themselves through the next wave of elections (France, Germany etc) and that they can then drop the financial bombs on those nations afterwards when their preferred politician is elected. And that politician won't challenge it.

Ignoring the fact that the populations of said countries are hardly going to rubber stamp more of the same when it comes to politicians.

Marine Le Pen was polling high 40s in the last poll I saw. (I have to assume they are better than the ones we saw pre Election/Brexit/Trump

[anonymous-user]

KrissKross said:

One of millions.

Cry baby.


What's the relevance to the thread?

[KrissKross]

desolate said:

What's the relevance to the topic at hand?

They started talking about dogs, I like dogs.

Then everyone started getting angry, a bit odd if you ask me.

[KrissKross]

desolate said:

KrissKross said:

One of millions.

Cry baby.


What's the relevance to the thread?

Why are you relevant, and who is crying?

Rather odd questions.