The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
The signs of a nightmare Brexit scenario are now starting to emerge...
- UK economic growth slowing sharply in H1 2017...
- US prioritising Germany / EU first for a big trade deal...
- EU head Juncker saying >50% chance Brexit talks will NOT be completed in <2 years...
- Labour and Corbyn (and Blair returning) seeing a huge swing in betting and polling the past week and currently look on track to win the June election...
Yipper said:
The signs of a nightmare Brexit scenario are now starting to emerge...
WTF?- Labour and Corny (and Blair returning) seeing a huge swing in betting and polling the past week and currently look on track to win the June election...
Labour are 50-1 to win a majority.
HTH
Edited by sidicks on Monday 1st May 13:50
Mrr T said:
Deptford Draylons said:
smaller EU members will be leaned on ( as happened in your mentioned case )
Except in the case of the Canadian FTA the smaller EU nations did not blink Canada had to make consesions on visas.turbobloke said:
zygalski said:
Was he sober at the time?
The man's a posturing fool. If anyone takes anything he says seriously, they're foolish too.
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
zygalski said:
Was he sober at the time?
The man's a posturing fool. If anyone takes anything he says seriously, they're foolish too.
Deptford Draylons said:
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
zygalski said:
Was he sober at the time?
The man's a posturing fool. If anyone takes anything he says seriously, they're foolish too.
May's official spokesman said a few weeks ago 'The Prime Minister has been clear that the days of paying large sums of money into the EU are over. We're at the beginning of a negotiation process. Let's see what happens.'
Depends on if you consider £52bn a large sum of money I suppose.
Yipper said:
The signs of a nightmare Brexit scenario are now starting to emerge...
- UK economic growth slowing sharply in H1 2017...
- US prioritising Germany / EU first for a big trade deal...
- EU head Juncker saying >50% chance Brexit talks will NOT be completed in <2 years...
- Labour and Corbyn (and Blair returning) seeing a huge swing in betting and polling the past week and currently look on track to win the June election...
Growth in Q1 2017. 0.3%
Growth in Q1 2016. 0.4%
Growth in Q1 2015. 0.3%
In what way is that 'slowing sharply'?
zygalski said:
Deptford Draylons said:
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
zygalski said:
Was he sober at the time?
The man's a posturing fool. If anyone takes anything he says seriously, they're foolish too.
May's official spokesman said a few weeks ago 'The Prime Minister has been clear that the days of paying large sums of money into the EU are over. We're at the beginning of a negotiation process. Let's see what happens.'
Depends on if you consider £52bn a large sum of money I suppose.
Deptford Draylons said:
zygalski said:
Deptford Draylons said:
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
zygalski said:
Was he sober at the time?
The man's a posturing fool. If anyone takes anything he says seriously, they're foolish too.
May's official spokesman said a few weeks ago 'The Prime Minister has been clear that the days of paying large sums of money into the EU are over. We're at the beginning of a negotiation process. Let's see what happens.'
Depends on if you consider £52bn a large sum of money I suppose.
zygalski said:
I have no idea. This is a figure that has been banded about. Please enlighten us as to how much we would owe, in which circumstances, and how you decided on such a figure.
Surely it's up to the person stating the figure to justify how it was calculated and why it was the right number?Yipper said:
The signs of a nightmare Brexit scenario are now starting to emerge...
Nonsense. - UK economic growth slowing sharply in H1 2017...
- US prioritising Germany / EU first for a big trade deal...
- EU head Juncker saying >50% chance Brexit talks will NOT be completed in <2 years...
- Labour and Corbyn (and Blair returning) seeing a huge swing in betting and polling the past week and currently look on track to win the June election...
- Growth is fine, the benefits of the drop in the pound are settling in now.
- The US says it is going to 'prioritise' whichever political head it has just met. It's publicity and means nothing
- Junker has never wanted the negotiations to appear easy, other EU members have said a free trade deal is absolutely certain
- Labour knows it has lost the election, but cannot say so. Every sound bite out of them is about 'beating the odds' and a 'surge in support' - a surge on nothing is still nothing.
sidicks said:
Mrr T said:
Whereas TM continuing to suggest we will not pay our legal requirements and that no deal is an option makes her look wise and thoughtful. Not.
Where has she said she will not pay our Legal requirement? Surely the dispute is over what our legal requirement actually is?Others have estimated this at about £30bn.
Mrr T said:
Actually I do know for sure because the implications of being in EU terms a third country are easy to predict.
Lose of financial services, the channel becoming a hard border disrupting the supply chain of many large businesses, business relocating in to the rEu, UK food exports halted, the virtual collapse of farming in N Ireland.
The effects on UK tax revenue would mean the sort of cuts which would make the conservative unelecable for a generation.
So what are your economic benefits?
You're just repeating the same old stuff that was turned out in the run up to the vote, and little has changed since to validate it. If anything the only change has been that short range prophecies failed to materialise.Lose of financial services, the channel becoming a hard border disrupting the supply chain of many large businesses, business relocating in to the rEu, UK food exports halted, the virtual collapse of farming in N Ireland.
The effects on UK tax revenue would mean the sort of cuts which would make the conservative unelecable for a generation.
So what are your economic benefits?
As for divorce payments to the EU, I'm more than happy to pay transparent and justifiable payments as and when they are made transparent and justified. If we come to a "no deal" situation, however, I would expect that to include on payments either. Good with the bad for both parties.
Let's see what happens.
zygalski said:
Deptford Draylons said:
zygalski said:
Deptford Draylons said:
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
zygalski said:
Was he sober at the time?
The man's a posturing fool. If anyone takes anything he says seriously, they're foolish too.
May's official spokesman said a few weeks ago 'The Prime Minister has been clear that the days of paying large sums of money into the EU are over. We're at the beginning of a negotiation process. Let's see what happens.'
Depends on if you consider £52bn a large sum of money I suppose.
I'll treat the figure as a PR headline until someone details how exactly its derived. Surely that's a sensible thing to do for anyone, but of course the pro EU crowd are crapping their collective pants about a figure they know nothing about. Perhaps they will release some details on it and stick by it. They may also want to say why this is a legal requirement too while they are there. If its a clear legal requirement, then the EU won't be budging on it , will they ?
Tuna said:
Nonsense.
Which 'other EU members have said that a free trade deal is absolutely certain'? The US will prioritize what's good for US. 500m+ market vs 65m market. - Growth is fine, the benefits of the drop in the pound are settling in now.
- The US says it is going to 'prioritise' whichever political head it has just met. It's publicity and means nothing
- Junker has never wanted the negotiations to appear easy, other EU members have said a free trade deal is absolutely certain
- Labour knows it has lost the election, but cannot say so. Every sound bite out of them is about 'beating the odds' and a 'surge in support' - a surge on nothing is still nothing.
Tuna said:
Nonsense.
- Growth is fine, the benefits of the drop in the pound are settling in now.
- The US says it is going to 'prioritise' whichever political head it has just met. It's publicity and means nothing
- Junker has never wanted the negotiations to appear easy, other EU members have said a free trade deal is absolutely certain
- Labour knows it has lost the election, but cannot say so. Every sound bite out of them is about 'beating the odds' and a 'surge in support' - a surge on nothing is still nothing.
At times the radio and TV news offer fine comedy at the moment.
They keep saying nonsense like "If Labour wins the election Jeremy Corbyn will [insert uncosted bribe here]"
If Labour wins the election
As for Juncker, the Jailer-in-Chief, somebody should tell him - when he sobers up - that the stable door is flapping in the wind even as the first horse is leaving the building. The man is a joke and the joke's on the EU.
Tuna said:
Yipper said:
The signs of a nightmare Brexit scenario are now starting to emerge...
Nonsense. - UK economic growth slowing sharply in H1 2017...
- US prioritising Germany / EU first for a big trade deal...
- EU head Juncker saying >50% chance Brexit talks will NOT be completed in <2 years...
- Labour and Corbyn (and Blair returning) seeing a huge swing in betting and polling the past week and currently look on track to win the June election...
- Growth is fine, the benefits of the drop in the pound are settling in now.
- The US says it is going to 'prioritise' whichever political head it has just met. It's publicity and means nothing
- Junker has never wanted the negotiations to appear easy, other EU members have said a free trade deal is absolutely certain
- Labour knows it has lost the election, but cannot say so. Every sound bite out of them is about 'beating the odds' and a 'surge in support' - a surge on nothing is still nothing.
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