The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[amgmcqueen]

Is anybody else in a manufacturing industry? I ask because every single manufacturing company I have dealt with seems to be booming. Exports are very good and jobs are being created.

Unemployment is also at a 12year low... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/une...

[B'stard Child]

amgmcqueen said:

Is anybody else in a manufacturing industry? I ask because every single manufacturing company I have dealt with seems to be booming. Exports are very good and jobs are being created.

Yes an it's not too bad

[stongle]

FN2TypeR said:

BRRD?

Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive. It's a complex bit of regs (and bank levies), but ultimately it rolls up all bank losses or failures up to holding company level. The opposite of Vickers and the seperation of IBs from Retails arms.

[Digga]

B'stard Child said:

amgmcqueen said:

Is anybody else in a manufacturing industry? I ask because every single manufacturing company I have dealt with seems to be booming. Exports are very good and jobs are being created.

Yes an it's not too bad

Snap.

I can actually foresee potential for a real manufacturing revival and significant FDI if the government tweeks things to encourage capital investment and demonstrates an intent to steer a steady course in that regard.

[Digga]

stongle said:

More impacted by macro prudential regs and the potential actions of the Trump administration than minor migrations to pseudo branches in the EU. With the notable exception of Goldman Sachs that uses the ECB as an extension of its balance sheet for punting shoddy credit - most other banks will have a legal and structural issue with BRRD. The games up for the EC trying to lower the Capital floor for the EU banks as they are overloaded with poor credit and increasing Loan Loss Provisioning. If the larger and better capitalised UK and US banks do move (via legal trickery) into Europe, the EU banks are all screwed and the EC knows that too.

The relationship between GS and the EU is surely a conflict of interest and highly questionable. How else does a former communist like Barroso end up being gifted a position at GS, replacing another ex-EU head in the process?

[pim]

If everything is booming and so marvelous at the moment why are so many workers on zero hrs contracts and low wages.

I can see more unemployment factories moving and us the U.K going around with a begging bowl for contracts around the world out of the E.U.

Freedom of movement by Europeans and replaced by visa's what a future we got ourselves into.

The financial sector does what it likes to do if anything goes wrong the taxpayer will bail them out.What happened in 2008 and guess who paid the price.

[Sway]

pim said:

If everything is booming and so marvelous at the moment why are so many workers on zero hrs contracts and low wages.

I can see more unemployment factories moving and us the U.K going around with a begging bowl for contracts around the world out of the E.U.

Freedom of movement by Europeans and replaced by visa's what a future we got ourselves into.

The financial sector does what it likes to do if anything goes wrong the taxpayer will bail them out.What happened in 2008 and guess who paid the price.

ZHCs have the highest satisfaction rate of any contract type. Wages are driven by supply and demand - demand has risen however supply has risen faster...

The rest of your post is full of conjecture based upon your own personal pessimism.

[sidicks]

pim said:

If everything is booming and so marvelous at the moment why are so many workers on zero hrs contracts and low wages.

Who said that, or is that just a nonsense straw man?

pim said:

I can see more unemployment factories moving and us the U.K going around with a begging bowl for contracts around the world out of the E.U.

Freedom of movement by Europeans and replaced by visa's what a future we got ourselves into.

The financial sector does what it likes to do if anything goes wrong the taxpayer will bail them out.What happened in 2008 and guess who paid the price.

I'm amazed that someone spout so much nonsense in just one post - you should be very proud of yourself!

Edited by sidicks on Sunday 14th May 19:53

[stongle]

pim said:

The financial sector does what it likes to do if anything goes wrong the taxpayer will bail them out.What happened in 2008 and guess who paid the price.

There is a very strong argument that the BASLE accords require banks to support public sector debt burden. The worlds a lot more complicated than the press portray it - particularly the nonsense on the BBC.

To start the process of resetting your political bias; start with the Collins amendment to the Dodd Frank Act (section 171 I believe), where it comes from and what the same party is pushing now........

[JawKnee]

Uh oh. That big bad nasty undemocratic EU are just too democratic. It's as if we were lied to.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16...

[Digga]

JawKnee said:

Uh oh. That big bad nasty undemocratic EU are just too democratic. It's as if we were lied to.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16...

It's a good example of why we need to be out - it's an absurdity. Until or unless the EU becomes both a currency union and a common fiscal policy area, the need to involve all states in every decision is a major cause of delay, inflexibility and bureaucracy.

[Fittster]

B'stard Child said:

amgmcqueen said:

Is anybody else in a manufacturing industry? I ask because every single manufacturing company I have dealt with seems to be booming. Exports are very good and jobs are being created.

Yes an it's not too bad

ONS = Fake news?

Britain's manufacturing and construction sectors contracted in March and the country's trade deficit widened as the economy continues to falter.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed manufacturing output fell 0.6% in March, construction dipped 0.7% while industrial output as a whole slumped 0.5%, its third straight monthly decline.

http://www.aol.co.uk/news/2017/05/11/contraction-f...

[turbobloke]

JawKnee said:

Uh oh. That big bad nasty undemocratic EU are just too democratic. It's as if we were lied to.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16...

The link doesn't say that. It considers one decision on one deal. It's as if we've been lied to.

[barryrs]

Fittster said:

ONS = Fake news?

Britain's manufacturing and construction sectors contracted in March and the country's trade deficit widened as the economy continues to falter.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed manufacturing output fell 0.6% in March, construction dipped 0.7% while industrial output as a whole slumped 0.5%, its third straight monthly decline.

http://www.aol.co.uk/news/2017/05/11/contraction-f...

Quick question.

Isn't that a drop in forecast rather than production?

I thought i had read that manufacturing had grown by 2.4% which was a drop in a predicted growth of 3%

[Digga]

Fittster said:

ONS = Fake news?

Could simply be asking the wrong, or even just not enough businesses, perhaps? It's only a poll after all.

[Mrr T]

https://www.cips.org/en-gb/news/news/businesses-pr...

[stongle]

Mrr T said:

https://www.cips.org/en-gb/news/news/businesses-pr...

It's asymmetric by industry. Some industries do have an issue, there's nothing new in here. Carney has been interesting over the last week for someone (saying something) with a bit more gravitas. We are about to hit the post Brexit chop, which given the timing of the election is convienient. Or if May is being touted as bland and the master of vague statements she's pulling a machevilian master stroke. She's betting the farm on getting a good outcome (which maynot be a deal dependent on the sh*te state of the Eurozone), and that any fiscal program Hammond puts together "sh*ts Tiffany cufflinks" before 2022 (Labour don't have a fiscal plan, just a car crash).

It's not a weak position. A negotiation, big or small is about getting a trade done. We only have to find the motivated seller and that's the market. Will UK plc or one of 28 (or is 27 now?) blink first. If anyone in the EU they fracture their interests (and will get picked off one way or another).

Now we are about to see the economic effects of Brexit. Strap in for the ride.

[zygalski]

amgmcqueen said:

Is anybody else in a manufacturing industry? I ask because every single manufacturing company I have dealt with seems to be booming. Exports are very good and jobs are being created.

Unemployment is also at a 12year low... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/une...

Hate to piss in anyone's champers but I would have thought the important point is what that graph looks like 5 or 10 years after Brexit, not whilst we're still members of the EU and will probably remain so for the next few years.

[Hub]

BIANCO said:

perhaps I should start a new topic on the economic consequences of a Corbyn goverment?

If we're on our own we need to be as competitive as possible - to attract new investment and encourage others to stay. So let's whack up corporation tax, wages, worker's rights etc... extremely worrying how brexit is barely mentioned!

[turbobloke]

Hub said:

BIANCO said:

perhaps I should start a new topic on the economic consequences of a Corbyn goverment?

If we're on our own we need to be as competitive as possible - to attract new investment and encourage others to stay. So let's whack up corporation tax, wages, worker's rights etc... extremely worrying how brexit is barely mentioned!

The whole Labour show is an exercise in demonstrating incompetence.