The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[turbobloke]

Mrr T said:

The brexit buffoons hate Richard North because he does not fit in with the group think. You know the one where the tanned PH company director says in his (it’s always a man) hands we would be out in 2 days.

Extreme fiction?!

[Blue Oval84]

Mrr T said:

The fact is if the civil service are pointing out the complexity TM and colleagues are not listening.

The next few months will be interesting. It will be fascinating as team TM get pushed closer and closer to the cliff edge.

Well I'm just thankful that she's partial to the odd U-turn...

[Tuna]

Mrr T said:

The brexit buffoons hate Richard North because he does not fit in with the group think. You know the one where the tanned PH company director says in his (it’s always a man) hands we would be out in 2 days.

The fact as North points out are that leaving an organisation we have been closely integrated in, and deciding to leave the SM and the CU at the same time is immensely complicated.

TM continues to spout NDIBTBD. Even though brexit buffoon in chief DD has admitted they have no idea what no deal means.

I read conservativehome and last week they had a serious of articles on the WTO exit. What was fascinating was that none of the articles address a no deal option. Every article was about the WTO but where the UK/rEU agreed this or agree that.

The fact is if the civil service are pointing out the complexity TM and colleagues are not listening.

The next few months will be interesting. It will be fascinating as team TM get pushed closer and closer to the cliff edge.

North holds contempt for the Tories and it informs his writing and analysis. In his view, they are all stupid, therefore anything they propose is stupid. Cogito ergo sum. Hardly a deep insight or proof of anything though, is it?

The Civil Service are in full on Yes Minister mode.. you can just imagine Sir Humphrey vibrating with horror as Ministers propose *gasp* doing something different. "But.. Minister.. this is the way it has always been done!".

And to be honest, pointing out the complexity (well, duh!) does not mean that it's impossible, or that it shouldn't be done (that ship has sailed), just that it's complex. It's fairly clear that (1) before negotiations have even started, there is little point in making grand plans for infrastructure changes that may be wildly wrong, or just not needed. The cries of terror that we're not already building massive new customs processing centres are ridiculous fear mongering at its best. (2) The two year deadline is not a brick wall beyond which any current agreements cannot pass. There will be priorities and transitional agreements and phased changes in many areas simply because you can't co-ordinate a switch over of this magnitude to all occur on a single date.

As ever, people fear change, and fear uncertainty even more. How can it all possibly work? You know what, if you stop characterising everyone apart from yourself as buffoons, you might realise that this is still a country of pragmatic, smart, hardworking people who are perfectly capable of getting a huge amount done in very short time. This obsession with not having everything mapped out and handed to you in nice outline diagrams that you can colour in in crayon misses the point that we're at the start of the process, we know what we have to achieve and we're just going to get on with it - regardless of who's in power.

[Mrr T]

Tuna said:

North holds contempt for the Tories and it informs his writing and analysis. In his view, they are all stupid, therefore anything they propose is stupid. Cogito ergo sum. Hardly a deep insight or proof of anything though, is it?

The Civil Service are in full on Yes Minister mode.. you can just imagine Sir Humphrey vibrating with horror as Ministers propose *gasp* doing something different. "But.. Minister.. this is the way it has always been done!".

And to be honest, pointing out the complexity (well, duh!) does not mean that it's impossible, or that it shouldn't be done (that ship has sailed), just that it's complex. It's fairly clear that (1) before negotiations have even started, there is little point in making grand plans for infrastructure changes that may be wildly wrong, or just not needed. The cries of terror that we're not already building massive new customs processing centres are ridiculous fear mongering at its best. (2) The two year deadline is not a brick wall beyond which any current agreements cannot pass. There will be priorities and transitional agreements and phased changes in many areas simply because you can't co-ordinate a switch over of this magnitude to all occur on a single date.

As ever, people fear change, and fear uncertainty even more. How can it all possibly work? You know what, if you stop characterising everyone apart from yourself as buffoons, you might realise that this is still a country of pragmatic, smart, hardworking people who are perfectly capable of getting a huge amount done in very short time. This obsession with not having everything mapped out and handed to you in nice outline diagrams that you can colour in in crayon misses the point that we're at the start of the process, we know what we have to achieve and we're just going to get on with it - regardless of who's in power.

You are a tanned PH company director and I claim my £5.

Whatever North’s views of the tory party are his blog shows facts supported by links.

So the day after the election will be 2 ½ months after Art 50 and nothing has happened, except from the rEU. The rEU has already said it will take 6 months for the final approval of any deal. So the UK now has 15 ½ months to negotiate an exit of deal immense complexity.

The exit deal has to be negotiated with 27 countries. It does not matter how many tanned PH company directors are involved from the UK side, the limit will be getting agreement from the rEU. The rEU has already said negotiations meeting will be 3 months apart so get all the rEU positions agreed. That’s 5 meeting to sort this out.

The UK brexit buffoons have already ruled out the only workable option and their only mantra is NDIBTABD.

I do not fear change I fear a train crash.

[alfie2244]

Mrr T said:

I do not fear change I fear a train crash.

Well the EU won't change and we won't be on their gravy train when it crashes into the buffers.

[Murph7355]

Mrr T said:

The brexit buffoons hate Richard North because he does not fit in with the group think. ...

There was a time when I'd have read the rest of what you had to say. And then you started using silly, petty name calling throughout every post.

North very much fits into "group think". It's just that it's your "group think" and not the Brexit one. All of which is fair enough. But his version of "group think" failed. Doesn't make it less right or wrong, but regurgitating the same stuff in the same condescending manner doesn't exactly win people over (though it does explain why you like him so much ).

North isn't around the negotiating table. We'll see in a decade whether he was right or not. Maybe.

[Tuna]

Mrr T said:

You are a tanned PH company director and I claim my £5.

What does that actually even mean? Seriously?

You're right though - spent the whole weekend camping and my nose is peeling. Does that somehow feel relevant to you?

Mrr T said:

Whatever North’s views of the tory party are his blog shows facts supported by links.

I know it's all true because I read it on the Internet!

Mrr T said:

So the day after the election will be 2 ½ months after Art 50 and nothing has happened, except from the rEU. The rEU has already said it will take 6 months for the final approval of any deal. So the UK now has 15 ½ months to negotiate an exit of deal immense complexity.

Are you seriously saying that? Are you completely unaware of the meetings and discussions that have been going on? Do you actually need to be led by the hand in person to each talk, each dinner, each discussion to be convinced they actually happened? Should the UK Government just CC you into all of their emails?

You keep stating just how complex the deal is going to be - and then in the next breath you demand that *just two months in* you should be able to see all the workings out? Have you no self-awareness at all?

Mrr T said:

I do not fear change I fear a train crash.

Feet of clay

[Luther Blissett]

The whole internet control speech crystallises the No Deal/Bad Deal issue for me.
If that was the bloke down the pub talking about encryption like Theresa May did you'd set him straight,
and yet there is the actual Prime Minister on telly talking total bks with that tone of voice as if she's
someone we should trust. It only works on you if you're as savvy as the Prime Minister is.

[Smiler.]

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

You are a tanned PH company director and I claim my £5.

What does that actually even mean?

It means:

"My argument is weak & anyway, what I actually want is just that, an argument & not to debate like an adult. Let's see if this gets a rise."

[turbobloke]

Luther Blissett said:

The whole internet control speech crystallises the No Deal/Bad Deal issue for me.
If that was the bloke down the pub talking about encryption like Theresa May did you'd set him straight,
and yet there is the actual Prime Minister on telly talking total bks with that tone of voice as if she's
someone we should trust. It only works on you if you're as savvy as the Prime Minister is.

In which case, across the UK population at large, it will work extremely well.

[turbobloke]

Smiler. said:

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

You are a tanned PH company director and I claim my £5.

What does that actually even mean?

It means:

"My argument is weak & anyway, what I actually want is just that, an argument & not to debate like an adult. Let's see if this gets a rise."

Many a true word is spoken in jest, and there we have 29 words, 2 ampersands and 1 smiley.

[Luther Blissett]

turbobloke said:

In which case, across the UK population at large, it will work extremely well.

What, Theresa May's specious argument about Brexit or the one about encryption?
I can't see how misleading an entire country this way can ever work out well.

[turbobloke]

Luther Blissett said:

turbobloke said:

In which case, across the UK population at large, it will work extremely well.

What, Theresa May's specious argument about Brexit or the one about encryption?
I can't see how misleading an entire country this way can ever work out well.

Either - and anything that fits your criterion of "only works on you if you're as savvy as the Prime Minister is".

That was quite obviously a sarcastic nod to the fact that the PM is not savvy. The thing is, such a description applies also to a large slice of the population, they're not savvy either (the country isn't populated by techies or brexit experts) so May's approach will work according to your own criterion.

[gavsdavs]

I take it that the Brexit loving PH massive consider this to be a good thing amirite ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-...

[alfie2244]

gavsdavs said:

I take it that the Brexit loving PH massive consider this to be a good thing amirite ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-...

" according to a person familiar with the matter"

[gavsdavs]

alfie2244 said:

gavsdavs said:

I take it that the Brexit loving PH massive consider this to be a good thing amirite ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-...

" according to a person familiar with the matter"

Don't get it - are you saying that because you don't like the language used that you think it's completely made up to antagonise brexiteers ?

[alfie2244]

gavsdavs said:

alfie2244 said:

gavsdavs said:

I take it that the Brexit loving PH massive consider this to be a good thing amirite ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-...

" according to a person familiar with the matter"

Don't get it - are you saying that because you don't like the language used that you think it's completely made up to antagonise brexiteers ?

Don't like the language? If that's the best you can come back with then quite honestly I can't be arsed to reply any further past this point...have a nice evening.

[gavsdavs]

alfie2244 said:

gavsdavs said:

alfie2244 said:

gavsdavs said:

I take it that the Brexit loving PH massive consider this to be a good thing amirite ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-...

" according to a person familiar with the matter"

Don't get it - are you saying that because you don't like the language used that you think it's completely made up to antagonise brexiteers ?

Don't like the language? If that's the best you can come back with then quite honestly I can't be arsed to reply any further past this point...have a nice evening.

I do apologise, I didn't realise there was some sort of standard to meet ?

I'm asking you directly if you believe or don't believe the article. Your initial 'rolf' response suggest you don't want to take it seriously. Which wouldn't surprise me because I don't think you can seriously consider it (if true) to be a positive economic consequence.

[Murph7355]

gavsdavs said:

I take it that the Brexit loving PH massive consider this to be a good thing amirite ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-...

Except this has been part of their strategy since well before Brexit. It has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, and if anything reinforces why it would be a good idea for us to rebalance which sectors contribute to GDP

(It's not great no matter what the reason. But CS has its own problems to sort out and is a Swiss bank...they need to do whatever they need to do)

[CaptainSlow]

JLR announce 5,000 new jobs "mainly in the UK"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40324352


This "immediate" and "profound" recession is the strangest immediate and profound recession I've ever seen.