The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Garvin]

Burwood said:

Garvin said:

Burwood said:

FiF said:

London424 said:

https://order-order.com/2017/06/28/european-commis...

I'm sure the EU countries can't wait!

Translate that into what appears to be the current negotiating strategy. We can't afford for them to leave so we'll be as impossible as we can be in the hope they say "oh sod this for a game of soldiers. Ok then we'll stay."

It's going to work so well for them, not.

Or ask for 100B euro divorce payment to get a decent deal and said 100b could create an annuity close to our current contribution. One way or the other we will get a deal but it will cost us some serious coin. I don't mind actually as long as we tell them to foxtrot oscar. It's net bad for business(mine) but I'm thinking of the country

Handing the EU €100Bn is not going to fly with the UK public, no matter how fierce a Brexiteer they may be - it would be complete political suicide for whoever even dares to suggest it! Will the EU dare risk the UK just walking? It will be an interesting six months in a year's time!

My good man, I didn't propose such a thing. Merely suggested why they are asking. I think we'll continue to pay a large amount though. 5b plus give or take without the current strings. They want our money and our intelligence. Well 5 eyes intelligence. They are blind without it. Tough st if it means security issues for them.

I know you didn't propose capitulation and handing over €100M, I was just making a general point that it ain't never gonna happen. The EU are making noises about us continuing with our commitments already made which is fair enough. However, if the UK has made contributions to whatever then it retains rights in whatever that is but the EU are hinting that on leaving UK will have to give up those rights. That isn't going to fly either.

It will come down to how much we have to pay for what retained benefit and that will be a value for money judgement at the time. It will come down to simple 'horse trading' with both sides having real financial pressures on them. It looks like it's squaring up to be quite a balanced bun fight!

[AC43]

powerstroke said:

Burwood said:

Garvin said:

Burwood said:

FiF said:

London424 said:

https://order-order.com/2017/06/28/european-commis...

I'm sure the EU countries can't wait!

Translate that into what appears to be the current negotiating strategy. We can't afford for them to leave so we'll be as impossible as we can be in the hope they say "oh sod this for a game of soldiers. Ok then we'll stay."

It's going to work so well for them, not.

Or ask for 100B euro divorce payment to get a decent deal and said 100b could create an annuity close to our current contribution. One way or the other we will get a deal but it will cost us some serious coin. I don't mind actually as long as we tell them to foxtrot oscar. It's net bad for business(mine) but I'm thinking of the country

Handing the EU €100Bn is not going to fly with the UK public, no matter how fierce a Brexiteer they may be - it would be complete political suicide for whoever even dares to suggest it! Will the EU dare risk the UK just walking? It will be an interesting six months in a year's time!

My good man, I didn't propose such a thing. Merely suggested why they are asking. I think we'll continue to pay a large amount though. 5b plus give or take without the current strings. They want our money and our intelligence. Well 5 eyes intelligence. They are blind without it. Tough st if it means security issues for them.

I'm hoping our negotiating team will just say ... Hold on guys is there any EU country that doesn't want to trade freely with the
UK post brexit ?? , we ARE leaving and no we don't need your stty cars ,trucks white goods , wine or other crap we can get it from people who like us so wind your silly necks in or we are going to give you the same sort of deal you gave Cameron...

All well and good until you remember that 80% of out economy is based on services and not on manufacturing. Dick around with our imports from the EU and they'll shaft our services sector.

[Tryke3]

Burwood said:

I've said before. I will sell the German cars if those pricks try it on. I really don't want a Land Rover or jag but I will do it. The French can stick their cheese and the Italians their pasta lol

Do you know italy s gdp in 2016 was 2.3 trillion and uks was 2.6 trillion, a lot of pasta ey ? Or just very stupid

[amusingduck]

Tryke3 said:

Burwood said:

I've said before. I will sell the German cars if those pricks try it on. I really don't want a Land Rover or jag but I will do it. The French can stick their cheese and the Italians their pasta lol

Do you know italy s gdp in 2016 was 2.3 trillion and uks was 2.6 trillion, a lot of pasta ey ? Or just very stupid

??????

Have you just plucked that figure out of your arse?

IMF 2016: ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,629,188
8 Italy 1,850,735

World Bank 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,497

UN 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,580

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by...

[powerstroke]

Tryke3 said:

Burwood said:

I've said before. I will sell the German cars if those pricks try it on. I really don't want a Land Rover or jag but I will do it. The French can stick their cheese and the Italians their pasta lol

Do you know italy s gdp in 2016 was 2.3 trillion and uks was 2.6 trillion, a lot of pasta ey ? Or just very stupid

not just Pasta , they make all sorts of things from widgets to huge ships engines , fast Fiats, trucks etc...

[anonymous-user]

powerstroke said:

cookie118 said:

powerstroke said:

I'm hoping our negotiating team will just say ... Hold on guys is there any EU country that doesn't want to trade freely with the
UK post brexit ?? , we ARE leaving and no we don't need your stty cars ,trucks white goods , wine or other crap we can get it from people who like us so wind your silly necks in or we are going to give you the same sort of deal you gave Cameron...

And they'll say we don't need your banks, JCBs, Jaguars/Landrovers or your people to build nissans/hondas.

Then what?

It's almost like it's more a more complicated process than telling them where to stick it...

you think so ?? what we sell then is tiny in comparison , I bellive Russia buys more JCB's and more japanesse brand cars
are exported to Japan from our world class plants, than the Euros buy !!! we have a trade deficit with Europe , for instance currently a lot the parts for those cars etc have to come from the EU, once we are out manufactures will be free to source parts worldwide making them even more competitive , win win

Edited by powerstroke on Friday 30th June 07:25

Edited by powerstroke on Friday 30th June 07:28

People often forget that they are talking about very large multinational organisations that operate GLOBALLY. These aren't some midlands only manufacturing setup that will go bust and lose 500 jobs if European countries stop buying the plant. (no doubt mentioned a million times previously but reminders are always good)

JCB is a prime example.....

Manufacturing plants in:

USA
China
India
Brazil

All of which are MASSIVE markets compared to the puny EU.

Large emerging economies are a far more attractive marketplace to sell your plant to based primarily on the fact that large emerging economies tend to build a lot of stuff. Europe, the last time I checked, was pretty stagnant in that area.

On the subject of manufacturing, there are companies such as Airbus (and therefore Rolls Royce) that the UK and other European countries are intrinsically linked. Massive aircraft programmes that requires a HIGHLY skilled workforce to take the conceptional design all the way to end product handover.

These types of set-ups are very unlikely to change imo. The cost involved would be astronomical and put the company deep into the red. Not to mention the fact that it would be borderline impossible to source the chief engineers, designers etc etc from other countries within the EU. Then there is the complex manufacturing process, large scale manufacturing sites and the thousands of companies in the supply chain that need to be established.

I'd hazzard that both industries will weather the storm just fine.

[anonymous-user]

DoubleTime said:

People often forget that they are talking about very large multinational organisations that operate GLOBALLY. These aren't some midlands only manufacturing setup that will go bust and lose 500 jobs if European countries stop buying the plant. (no doubt mentioned a million times previously but reminders are always good)

JCB is a prime example.....

Manufacturing plants in:

USA
China
India
Brazil

All of which are MASSIVE markets compared to the puny EU.

Large emerging economies are a far more attractive marketplace to sell your plant to based primarily on the fact that large emerging economies tend to build a lot of stuff. Europe, the last time I checked, was pretty stagnant in that area.

You're right in that JCB and other companies sell a lot of stuff into emerging markets-but a lot of those products are designed and built out in those markets.

So while the global companies will be ok if European sales dip, the U.K. operations of those companies might see a decline and job losses etc.

[paulrockliffe]

cookie118 said:

And they'll say we don't need your banks

And it'll be a lie. The Euro wouldn't survive very long after the loss of access to capital, it'd be dead even faster when the Euro clearance machines are unplugged.

Does anyone know what that actual infrastructure position is around Financial Services, I'm just guessing really. Is it theoretically possible to turn a few things off in the middle of a difficult negotiation session to cause a bit of panic to drive home the point?

[loafer123]

amusingduck said:

Tryke3 said:

Burwood said:

I've said before. I will sell the German cars if those pricks try it on. I really don't want a Land Rover or jag but I will do it. The French can stick their cheese and the Italians their pasta lol

Do you know italy s gdp in 2016 was 2.3 trillion and uks was 2.6 trillion, a lot of pasta ey ? Or just very stupid

??????

Have you just plucked that figure out of your arse?

IMF 2016: ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,629,188
8 Italy 1,850,735

World Bank 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,497

UN 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,580

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by...

Facts and maths are not high on the list of socialists strong points.

They are, however, excellent at spouting nonsense.

[anonymous-user]

cookie118 said:

You're right in that JCB and other companies sell a lot of stuff into emerging markets-but a lot of those products are designed and built out in those markets.

So while the global companies will be ok if European sales dip, the U.K. operations of those companies might see a decline and job losses etc.

Granted some jobs could be lost in that scenario however the company remains strong. "Competitive" is a word largely spouted when the media refers to the UK and brexit.

Suppose it all comes down to cost then doesn't it? JCB manufacture the plant in India with cheap labor force and sell it back to the EU to compete with the likes of DOOSAN, for example. That is simple offshoring that many UK companies already do to remain competitive and maximize revenue, don't they? So in that scenario, it may well be that JCB (insert any other global co.) decided to offshore their UK operations anyway. Brexit or no Brexit.

[Sway]

paulrockliffe said:

And it'll be a lie. The Euro wouldn't survive very long after the loss of access to capital, it'd be dead even faster when the Euro clearance machines are unplugged.

Does anyone know what that actual infrastructure position is around Financial Services, I'm just guessing really. Is it theoretically possible to turn a few things off in the middle of a difficult negotiation session to cause a bit of panic to drive home the point?

Whether it's possible or not (I suspect it is technically possible, but likely illegal) - that's a proper armageddon scenario.

Doing that sort of thing doesn't cause 'a bit of panic', it causes massive problems for everyone.

However, the EU negotiators know that their nations absolutely require unfettered access to the City...

[Garvin]

loafer123 said:

amusingduck said:

Tryke3 said:

Burwood said:

I've said before. I will sell the German cars if those pricks try it on. I really don't want a Land Rover or jag but I will do it. The French can stick their cheese and the Italians their pasta lol

Do you know italy s gdp in 2016 was 2.3 trillion and uks was 2.6 trillion, a lot of pasta ey ? Or just very stupid

??????

Have you just plucked that figure out of your arse?

IMF 2016: ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,629,188
8 Italy 1,850,735

World Bank 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,497

UN 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,580

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by...

Facts and maths are not high on the list of socialists strong points.

They are, however, excellent at spouting nonsense.

The real danger is that they are now using social media to spout all this crap to the younger and not so wise generations in order to con them and sweep the left into power. It's tragic but, due to the lack of any real analysis by our younger generations, it appears to be working!

[Murph7355]

amusingduck said:

??????

Have you just plucked that figure out of your arse?
...

I think he may be mistaking "Italy" for "India".

Which is an understandably easy thing to do. Though he should probably stock up on immodium for the annual summer holiday

[AC43]

Garvin said:

loafer123 said:

amusingduck said:

Tryke3 said:

Burwood said:

I've said before. I will sell the German cars if those pricks try it on. I really don't want a Land Rover or jag but I will do it. The French can stick their cheese and the Italians their pasta lol

Do you know italy s gdp in 2016 was 2.3 trillion and uks was 2.6 trillion, a lot of pasta ey ? Or just very stupid

??????

Have you just plucked that figure out of your arse?

IMF 2016: ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,629,188
8 Italy 1,850,735

World Bank 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,497

UN 2015 ($Millions)
5 United Kingdom 2,858,003
8 Italy 1,821,580

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by...

Facts and maths are not high on the list of socialists strong points.

They are, however, excellent at spouting nonsense.

The real danger is that they are now using social media to spout all this crap to the younger and not so wise generations in order to con them and sweep the left into power. It's tragic but, due to the lack of any real analysis by our younger generations, it appears to be working!

Facebook and Twitter seem to make people really stupid. I can't be arsed with either. There's so much guff on both.

[Murph7355]

AC43 said:

Facebook and Twitter seem to make people really stupid. I can't be arsed with either. There's so much guff on both.

I think it's the other way round.

When I rule the world I will be tackling its biggest problem - over population - by implementing a Logan's Run style euthanasia system, but instead of being based on age it will be based on usage of Twitter/Facebook/Instagram/Snapchat/WhatsApp, applications to reality TV shows and readership lists of Hello!, OK! and Grazia! magazines. Dail Mail readership will be added once my folks and inlaws are no longer a consideration too.

[anonymous-user]

DoubleTime said:

Granted some jobs could be lost in that scenario however the company remains strong. "Competitive" is a word largely spouted when the media refers to the UK and brexit.

Suppose it all comes down to cost then doesn't it? JCB manufacture the plant in India with cheap labor force and sell it back to the EU to compete with the likes of DOOSAN, for example. That is simple offshoring that many UK companies already do to remain competitive and maximize revenue, don't they? So in that scenario, it may well be that JCB (insert any other global co.) decided to offshore their UK operations anyway. Brexit or no Brexit.

The location does come down to cost-but if components etc sources from the continent become more expensive due to tariffs etc then it tips the balance in favour of offshore manufacturing rather than manufacturing in the U.K.

Surely even the most ardent brexiteer can see that?

[Dr Jekyll]

cookie118 said:

The location does come down to cost-but if components etc sources from the continent become more expensive due to tariffs etc then it tips the balance in favour of offshore manufacturing rather than manufacturing in the U.K.

Surely even the most ardent brexiteer can see that?

So why would we charge tariffs in that case? The EU forces us to charge tariffs on rest of world imports so accusing Brexiteers of ignoring the problems of import tariffs makes no sense.

[anonymous-user]

Dr Jekyll said:

So why would we charge tariffs in that case? The EU forces us to charge tariffs on rest of world imports so accusing Brexiteers of ignoring the problems of import tariffs makes no sense.

I don't know-maybe ask some of the other brexiteers on here who seem to think we'll tariff everything to hold the EU to ransom.

[Murph7355]

cookie118 said:

I don't know-maybe ask some of the other brexiteers on here who seem to think we'll tariff everything to hold the EU to ransom.

I don't think anyone's been saying that (save for Remain advocates trying to make a point ).

We will have the option to set whatever tariffs we want against different product categories.

Just as with immigration, we will have the choice without having to pander to EU arbitrariness or 27 other nations. We'll have our own arbitrariness in its place

Options under our sole control.

[Tuna]

cookie118 said:

I don't know-maybe ask some of the other brexiteers on here who seem to think we'll tariff everything to hold the EU to ransom.

I'm not a Brexiteer, but I am one of the people who believe that if we're going to do this, we've got to do it properly.

And to be clear Tariffs are bad. Any tariff that we impose hurts us more than it hurts the people we it them to. People on both sides of the Brexit discussion fail to grasp this simple fact - the tariff a trading nation/block imposes is more damaging to that nation/block than the other trading nation/block. The aim of a healthy economy is to extract maximum value for its citizens - and a tariff does the exact opposite, making citizens pay more for stuff they want. Any study of tariffs quickly shows up that the 'protectionist' element doesn't offset that, and overall they slow the economy imposing them.

On the whole, if the EU slapped us with tariffs on all our exports to them and we removed all tariffs on imports from them, we'd be winning - by a long way. There is no value to tit-for-tat tariff arrangements, and no-one should be advocating using the threat of tariffs to force the discussions. Quite the opposite.