The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
We are leaving so can we stop looking backwards and look to the future as this thread is about the economic consequences of Brexit, not . . . . . . . hang on, I've already done that bit!
Perhaps we need another thread where the Brexiteers and Remoaners can carry on going round and round the same arguments about how the Brexiteers absolutely handed the Remoaners arses to them . . . . and some. Although I think we had one of those which fizzled out due to nothing new being posted and endless repetition becoming tedious.
Now about the future economic consequences of Brexit . . . . . . .
Perhaps we need another thread where the Brexiteers and Remoaners can carry on going round and round the same arguments about how the Brexiteers absolutely handed the Remoaners arses to them . . . . and some. Although I think we had one of those which fizzled out due to nothing new being posted and endless repetition becoming tedious.
Now about the future economic consequences of Brexit . . . . . . .
Garvin said:
We are leaving so can we stop looking backwards and look to the future as this thread is about the economic consequences of Brexit, not . . . . . . . hang on, I've already done that bit!
Perhaps we need another thread where the Brexiteers and Remoaners can carry on going round and round the same arguments about how the Brexiteers absolutely handed the Remoaners arses to them . . . . and some. Although I think we had one of those which fizzled out due to nothing new being posted and endless repetition becoming tedious.
Now about the future economic consequences of Brexit . . . . . . .
Maybe if we had some answers about what Brexit will look like we'd have some progress on the thread.Perhaps we need another thread where the Brexiteers and Remoaners can carry on going round and round the same arguments about how the Brexiteers absolutely handed the Remoaners arses to them . . . . and some. Although I think we had one of those which fizzled out due to nothing new being posted and endless repetition becoming tedious.
Now about the future economic consequences of Brexit . . . . . . .
The reason why the same arguments get redone over and over again is because they're not resolved. We voted to leave, but will we remain in the customs union, the single market? We don't know hence why we're still having arguments about the benefit of the single market to the uk.
Then there's the fact that Brexiteers don't seem to be particularly bothered about anyone's concerns about leaving and immmediately label anyone with concern about leaving as a remoaner or accuses them of trying to talk the country down. There's no attempt at explanation just a sneering attitude of 'we won you lost'.
cookie118 said:
Maybe if we had some answers about what Brexit will look like we'd have some progress on the thread.
The reason why the same arguments get redone over and over again is because they're not resolved. We voted to leave, but will we remain in the customs union, the single market? We don't know hence why we're still having arguments about the benefit of the single market to the uk.
Then there's the fact that Brexiteers don't seem to be particularly bothered about anyone's concerns about leaving and immmediately label anyone with concern about leaving as a remoaner or accuses them of trying to talk the country down. There's no attempt at explanation just a sneering attitude of 'we won you lost'.
Well we will not know until the negotiations are very materially complete. The reason why the same arguments get redone over and over again is because they're not resolved. We voted to leave, but will we remain in the customs union, the single market? We don't know hence why we're still having arguments about the benefit of the single market to the uk.
Then there's the fact that Brexiteers don't seem to be particularly bothered about anyone's concerns about leaving and immmediately label anyone with concern about leaving as a remoaner or accuses them of trying to talk the country down. There's no attempt at explanation just a sneering attitude of 'we won you lost'.
Currently we're just looking at how to split and agree that nothing more.
cookie118 said:
Maybe if we had some answers about what Brexit will look like we'd have some progress on the thread.
At the moment both sides seem to agree the UK will not be in the EEA or Customs Union. That leaves us with either a trade agreement or WTO, and possibly some transition arrangement from where we are to where we will be.People are still under discussion. UK wants a 5 year eligibility and the EU wants less.
EU want's 100BN and the UK says it will pay what is appropriate.
I think move to WTO tariffs for now and try and get a trade deal sorted after we have left, when the industries start to put pressure on the EU.
Footwear and clothing has one of the biggest impacts, many have said that, with tariffs at 8% it is classed as high. However, all my suppliers have agreed they will cover half of that and we will cover the other half. So being realistic, worse case scenario is a 4% hike in an area where many spend a fair chuck of their money.
We see bigger fluctuations each season based on the trade price of cotton than 8%.
Footwear and clothing has one of the biggest impacts, many have said that, with tariffs at 8% it is classed as high. However, all my suppliers have agreed they will cover half of that and we will cover the other half. So being realistic, worse case scenario is a 4% hike in an area where many spend a fair chuck of their money.
We see bigger fluctuations each season based on the trade price of cotton than 8%.
cookie118 said:
We voted to leave, but will we remain in the customs union, the single market?
No and No.We voted to leave the EU.
Being in the single market means we have not left the EU.
Being in the customs union means we have not left the EU.
For democracy to be carried out to our wishes - we will have left the EU.
turbobloke said:
cookie118 said:
Maybe if we had some answers about what Brexit will look like we'd have some progress on the thread.
Which make of time machine do you recommend for travelling into the future and back again?Murph7355 said:
...
You'd have thought Remain could have put up better arguments to persuade the older, more stupid of the country. Or found better ways to combat the huge proportion of racists in this country. How does it reflect on them that they couldn't?
Not sure where you get the 'racist' from. Please clarify, as I never said anything of the kind. We can go from there. You'd have thought Remain could have put up better arguments to persuade the older, more stupid of the country. Or found better ways to combat the huge proportion of racists in this country. How does it reflect on them that they couldn't?
Murph7355 said:
But really, all you had to do was state the bit in bold and I would have conceded to you. After all, if "big data analysis" was involved it MUST have all been true. Big data analysis can never be wrong or skewed to say what you want. GO's analysis of the immediate post vote aftermath. The green agenda etc. "Big Data Analysis" so must be on the money. Hard to argue with that sort of logic jj 
Why would Banks want for his research to say that vote was primarily down to immigration if it wasn't?The logic is BDA on which you've spent £7.5m of your money is significantly more valuable and accurate than exit polls in which you don't want to be seen as a xenophobe or whatever you might think that honest answer would imply, so you say that you want control.
I don't understand 'green agenda' part.
cookie118 said:
Maybe if we had some answers about what Brexit will look like we'd have some progress on the thread.
The reason why the same arguments get redone over and over again is because they're not resolved. We voted to leave, but will we remain in the customs union, the single market? We don't know hence why we're still having arguments about the benefit of the single market to the uk.
Then there's the fact that Brexiteers don't seem to be particularly bothered about anyone's concerns about leaving and immmediately label anyone with concern about leaving as a remoaner or accuses them of trying to talk the country down. There's no attempt at explanation just a sneering attitude of 'we won you lost'.
All the major players have said we will leave the single market and the customs union.The reason why the same arguments get redone over and over again is because they're not resolved. We voted to leave, but will we remain in the customs union, the single market? We don't know hence why we're still having arguments about the benefit of the single market to the uk.
Then there's the fact that Brexiteers don't seem to be particularly bothered about anyone's concerns about leaving and immmediately label anyone with concern about leaving as a remoaner or accuses them of trying to talk the country down. There's no attempt at explanation just a sneering attitude of 'we won you lost'.
There has been 12 months worth of explanations, you just don't like what that tells you.
I don't think the campaign reflected well on either side. Politicians select and distort truth for their own ends - that's pretty much a given, but that process went well into simplistic economics and unpleasant undertones of racism. I don't think anyone had or has the faintest idea of what would be involved in withdrawal from the EU, and the cheery notion that we can select the good bits is ludicrous. Lots of people don't seem to understand the good done by the EU either - there are several projects around this corner of Scotland made possible by EU funding, and nobody knows whether this funding will continue. Again, up here, the fishing industry relies heavily on the EU, not just for process workers but for markets. Twenty or thirty years back, squid was discarded but now goes to the continent, as does lots of other stuff. So now what? I like wine, and wonder how that will be affected.
As a young man, I was a Customs Officer for a couple of years or so and I remember how complex some regulations were to interpret and implement, so all that will need to be redone, I suppose. Our station in Shetland also ran immigration on a sort of agency arrangement for the immigration service proper, so there is another shedload of stuff to sort.
I'm not naturally pessimistic but I am curious and cynical. Looking over last century's history of Europe, and indeed centuries prior to that, leaving a peaceful and organised bloc like the EU seems simply tragic.
As a young man, I was a Customs Officer for a couple of years or so and I remember how complex some regulations were to interpret and implement, so all that will need to be redone, I suppose. Our station in Shetland also ran immigration on a sort of agency arrangement for the immigration service proper, so there is another shedload of stuff to sort.
I'm not naturally pessimistic but I am curious and cynical. Looking over last century's history of Europe, and indeed centuries prior to that, leaving a peaceful and organised bloc like the EU seems simply tragic.
Perseverant said:
I'm not naturally pessimistic but I am curious and cynical. Looking over last century's history of Europe, and indeed centuries prior to that, leaving a peaceful and organised bloc like the EU seems simply tragic.
As long as they're peaceful and organised, that's alright then.
turbobloke said:
cookie118 said:
Maybe if we had some answers about what Brexit will look like we'd have some progress on the thread.
Which make of time machine do you recommend for travelling into the future and back again?No human can predict the future, but all humans can create the future. Positivity creates positive results, negativity... well you get the point.
Troubleatmill said:
cookie118 said:
We voted to leave, but will we remain in the customs union, the single market?
No and No.We voted to leave the EU.
Being in the single market means we have not left the EU.
Being in the customs union means we have not left the EU.
For democracy to be carried out to our wishes - we will have left the EU.
There are all manner of combinations possible. For example we can leave the EU which carries out the wishes of the will of the peopleTM but maintain membership of the Customs Union.
Edited by Dindoit on Sunday 9th July 16:28
So I went to Brighton yesterday. Was full of Europe tourists as it always is, no change. So there doesn't appear to be any Britain is racist, lets avoid it consequences.
Also the Lake District has been made a World Heritage site recently, so that should attract a lot more, and wealthier tourists too.
Also the Lake District has been made a World Heritage site recently, so that should attract a lot more, and wealthier tourists too.
cookie118 said:
. There's no attempt at explanation just a sneering attitude of 'we won you lost'.
Not addressing this to you personally, but I suspect the attitude to which you refer will, in many cases, be born of the fact that explanations have been given time after time after time. The problem is that some on the Remain side :1. Don't like the explanations offered
2. Refuse to engage with the explanations offered
3. Never really wanted the explanations, but instead are using their "questions" as a way of finding ways perpetuate some sort of Remain narrative and to continue to subvert the vote to leave
Lastly, when you consider just how sneering, insulting and dismissive some on the Remain side were towards Brexit voters in the run up to and the immediate aftermath of the Referendum vote you can surely see why some Brexiters get a bit exasperated - I'm not condoning or excusing abuse on either side.
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