The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
I reluctantly voted for Brexit.
The main driver for my decision was the intransigence of the EU to acknowledge that a fair proportion of inhabitants of member countries had a problem,rightly or wrongly,with e.g. the speed and quantity of immigration.
The drive towards federalism,which must be the end game for the EU.
The Euro,of which we are not part,however the consequences of being in the EU would have consequences for us,
Let's take the problem e.g. that Italy is having with a constant flow of mainly economic immigrants.
Other EU countries are very reluctant to play their part in helping Italy with this problem.
If the EU had been a strong economic market and had not exposed several member countries to the Euro for which they were not financially prepared I would have stayed in.
Nevertheless,if we are to stay in the single market,we will have to conform to many EU laws and not have a seat at the table where decisions are made.
In that case we well might have been better off to stay in.
I also acknowledge the awful campaign from both Remainers and Brexiteers that led some to vote with their hearts and not their heads.
When Remainers state their case it must be that they have a crystal ball.
No one knows exactly how this will pan out but at least Brexit,in theory,gives the UK the opportunity that we plough our own fields.
The main driver for my decision was the intransigence of the EU to acknowledge that a fair proportion of inhabitants of member countries had a problem,rightly or wrongly,with e.g. the speed and quantity of immigration.
The drive towards federalism,which must be the end game for the EU.
The Euro,of which we are not part,however the consequences of being in the EU would have consequences for us,
Let's take the problem e.g. that Italy is having with a constant flow of mainly economic immigrants.
Other EU countries are very reluctant to play their part in helping Italy with this problem.
If the EU had been a strong economic market and had not exposed several member countries to the Euro for which they were not financially prepared I would have stayed in.
Nevertheless,if we are to stay in the single market,we will have to conform to many EU laws and not have a seat at the table where decisions are made.
In that case we well might have been better off to stay in.
I also acknowledge the awful campaign from both Remainers and Brexiteers that led some to vote with their hearts and not their heads.
When Remainers state their case it must be that they have a crystal ball.
No one knows exactly how this will pan out but at least Brexit,in theory,gives the UK the opportunity that we plough our own fields.
Office of Budget Responsibility in its first fiscal risks report has amongst other things stated that a bill of €75bn (£66bn), or around 3pc of GDP, was unlikely to pose a serious threat to the public finances. “As a one-off hit, this would not be a serious threat to fiscal sustainability."
More important are deals with trading partners which would be good for continued growth in the economy.
More important are deals with trading partners which would be good for continued growth in the economy.
FiF said:
Office of Budget Responsibility in its first fiscal risks report has amongst other things stated that a bill of €75bn (£66bn), or around 3pc of GDP, was unlikely to pose a serious threat to the public finances. “As a one-off hit, this would not be a serious threat to fiscal sustainability."
More important are deals with trading partners which would be good for continued growth in the economy.
Just fire up the printing presses. More important are deals with trading partners which would be good for continued growth in the economy.
It's small change, compared to the money printed after the banking crisis.
Jimboka said:
Just fire up the printing presses.
BoE are not going to start QE with inflation at 2.7% and unemployment sub easily 5% to assist the government with a brexit. If anything they'll be thinking about raising rates. It'll actually end up on the never-never with the other £1.56 trillion. Either that or they do a one off household brexit tax, assuming 26m households in the UK and a final amount of about £66bn that's going to be just over £2500 per household.
Perseverant said:
I don't think the campaign reflected well on either side. Politicians select and distort truth for their own ends - that's pretty much a given, but that process went well into simplistic economics and unpleasant undertones of racism. I don't think anyone had or has the faintest idea of what would be involved in withdrawal from the EU, and the cheery notion that we can select the good bits is ludicrous. Lots of people don't seem to understand the good done by the EU either - there are several projects around this corner of Scotland made possible by EU funding, and nobody knows whether this funding will continue. Again, up here, the fishing industry relies heavily on the EU, not just for process workers but for markets. Twenty or thirty years back, squid was discarded but now goes to the continent, as does lots of other stuff. So now what? I like wine, and wonder how that will be affected.
As a young man, I was a Customs Officer for a couple of years or so and I remember how complex some regulations were to interpret and implement, so all that will need to be redone, I suppose. Our station in Shetland also ran immigration on a sort of agency arrangement for the immigration service proper, so there is another shedload of stuff to sort.
I'm not naturally pessimistic but I am curious and cynical. Looking over last century's history of Europe, and indeed centuries prior to that, leaving a peaceful and organised bloc like the EU seems simply tragic.
i agree with your first sentence. regarding squid ,i can't remember if it is gardenstown or pennan that has the wee cafe with the big squid pictures in it. they have been targeting squid that was sold to the continent for a lot longer than 30 years. the reason the big hauls were discarded was down to the catching method (that was designed for whitefish/prawns) leaving them unfit for sale . specifically designed gear along with improvements in handling,packing and storage added to dropping fish quota were the main reasons for the boom in the squid industry.As a young man, I was a Customs Officer for a couple of years or so and I remember how complex some regulations were to interpret and implement, so all that will need to be redone, I suppose. Our station in Shetland also ran immigration on a sort of agency arrangement for the immigration service proper, so there is another shedload of stuff to sort.
I'm not naturally pessimistic but I am curious and cynical. Looking over last century's history of Europe, and indeed centuries prior to that, leaving a peaceful and organised bloc like the EU seems simply tragic.
a funny aside is the bloke that makes the best squid nets in europe is an old spanish guy in his late 70's . he has orders for nets to keep him going for more than 10 years . they are handmade from a very soft and pliant material to reduce damage to the catch and cost an absolute fortune . i think he might want to take an apprentice on or some people are going to end up disappointed.
Edited by wc98 on Friday 14th July 08:07
turbobloke said:
Citi are moving a couple of hundred staff to Frankfurt - while maintaining London as their european headquarters.
What a disaster! For any poor booger having to move from London to Frankfurt.
Are these the bankers that "pfffft, won't be leaving, don't be a daft bedwetting scaremonger!" ?What a disaster! For any poor booger having to move from London to Frankfurt.
"No-one will go to Frankfurt". Unless they want to keep their job that is.
And this is one bank.
There are well over 150 in the UK.
Still, did we get a couple of hundred new trawlers in exchange?
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
Citi are moving a couple of hundred staff to Frankfurt - while maintaining London as their european headquarters.
What a disaster! For any poor booger having to move from London to Frankfurt.
Are these the bankers that "pfffft, won't be leaving, don't be a daft bedwetting scaremonger!" ?What a disaster! For any poor booger having to move from London to Frankfurt.
"No-one will go to Frankfurt". Unless they want to keep their job that is.
And this is one bank.
There are well over 150 in the UK.
Still, did we get a couple of hundred new trawlers in exchange?
Do you think leaving the Citi european centre of ops in London for an outpost will be sought after and such small numbers will result in the end of western political civilisation - the end that we were promised pre-vote?
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
Citi are moving a couple of hundred staff to Frankfurt - while maintaining London as their european headquarters.
What a disaster! For any poor booger having to move from London to Frankfurt.
Are these the bankers that "pfffft, won't be leaving, don't be a daft bedwetting scaremonger!" ?What a disaster! For any poor booger having to move from London to Frankfurt.
"No-one will go to Frankfurt". Unless they want to keep their job that is.
And this is one bank.
There are well over 150 in the UK.
Still, did we get a couple of hundred new trawlers in exchange?
Do you think leaving the Citi european centre of ops in London for an outpost will be sought after and such small numbers will result in the end of western political civilisation - the end that we were promised pre-vote?
Arguably more realistic perspectives on the City after Brexit:
London will remain europe's financial capital despite Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/30/l...
The idea that London will be replaced as europe's financial centre is potty.
http://www.cityam.com/260998/idea-london-replaced-...
Brexit won't break London as financial centre
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/brexit-wont-...
London will remain europe's financial capital despite Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/30/l...
The idea that London will be replaced as europe's financial centre is potty.
http://www.cityam.com/260998/idea-london-replaced-...
Brexit won't break London as financial centre
https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/brexit-wont-...
turbobloke said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
Several brexiteers said "no one will move to Frankfurt from London". Wrong then.
Who?///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
kahn said:
He also revealed that the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, had told him on a visit – “only half-jokingly” – that she would “roll out the red carpet” to welcome London-based companies to her city if Britain voted to leave.
now he is bang on the money here with half joking. yes she's making a little joke, but she is also deadly serious. this is a revealing insight into one of my main reasons to remain.
///ajd said:
germany, but especially france, will take every opportunity to benefit from brexit - and make no mistake they will be ruthless, and ultimately reasonably effective at dong so.
turbobloke said:
Should I be afraid?
It's not working.
///ajd said:
do you appreciate it is a genuine issue?
it seems not, but it is still a very significant risk to any brexit plan.
turbobloke said:
We've overtaken the French economy in spite of remaining in the EU and would have done so earlier without Labour and without the EU. I modelled that on my own set of assumptions. We're scheduled to overtake Germany in the near future and if the HMT model was re-programmed with a different set of assumptions to George's instructions we would do so more quickly, not more slowly, outside the EU.
Of course there's nothing to Fear.
---
In summary - Turbowrong:
- nothing to fear (from jobs going to London) - wrong - watch them leave
- we're soon overtake Germany - wrong - went from fastest to now slowest economy in EU)
///ajd said:
Are these the bankers that "pfffft, won't be leaving, don't be a daft bedwetting scaremonger!" ?
"No-one will go to Frankfurt". Unless they want to keep their job that is.
And this is one bank.
There are well over 150 in the UK.
Still, did we get a couple of hundred new trawlers in exchange?
Citi employ 9,000 people in the UK...."No-one will go to Frankfurt". Unless they want to keep their job that is.
And this is one bank.
There are well over 150 in the UK.
Still, did we get a couple of hundred new trawlers in exchange?
jsf said:
Where in that does he say people will or wont move to Frankfurt?
I'm more inclined to question the validity of the quotes - seeing as someone has previous for manipulating quotes from others even in threads......I mean how hard is it to press quote and reply, snaffle the relevant info and the paste into notepad or similar and then re-post in a new thread.....
I can't find anything that says Citi are moving 150-250 jobs to Frankfurt.
press releases said:
The choice to expand the bank’s existing broker-dealer in the German city means it will create between 150 and 250 new roles there, said the person, who asked not to be identified talking about internal policies. It’s yet to be decided if the jobs will be filled by moving existing employees or by hiring locally, and it’s likely to be some combination, the person said.
Isn't this just Citi bolstering their existing workforce in Frankfurt which would seem pretty sensible given Brexit? In a company the size of Citi, this wouldn't make the press if it weren't for the anti-Brexit angle some will spin it on today.B'stard Child said:
jsf said:
Where in that does he say people will or wont move to Frankfurt?
I'm more inclined to question the validity of the quotes - seeing as someone has previous for manipulating quotes from others even in threads......I mean how hard is it to press quote and reply, snaffle the relevant info and the paste into notepad or similar and then re-post in a new thread.....
But here it is.
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
There are no doubt others but that was a quick google.
It does capture the optimism of brexiteering pre ref - we were going to shoot ahead of others in the EU back in the heady days of £350M buses etc. it seems.
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
jsf said:
Where in that does he say people will or wont move to Frankfurt?
I'm more inclined to question the validity of the quotes - seeing as someone has previous for manipulating quotes from others even in threads......I mean how hard is it to press quote and reply, snaffle the relevant info and the paste into notepad or similar and then re-post in a new thread.....
But here it is.
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
There are no doubt others but that was a quick google.
It does capture the optimism of brexiteering pre ref - we were going to shoot ahead of others in the EU back in the heady days of £350M buses etc. it seems.
///ajd said:
Several brexiteers said "no one will move to Frankfurt from London". Wrong then.
I'm guessing you can't as a result of the diversions above.'Frenchie' fails again.
don'tbesilly said:
///ajd said:
B'stard Child said:
jsf said:
Where in that does he say people will or wont move to Frankfurt?
I'm more inclined to question the validity of the quotes - seeing as someone has previous for manipulating quotes from others even in threads......I mean how hard is it to press quote and reply, snaffle the relevant info and the paste into notepad or similar and then re-post in a new thread.....
But here it is.
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
There are no doubt others but that was a quick google.
It does capture the optimism of brexiteering pre ref - we were going to shoot ahead of others in the EU back in the heady days of £350M buses etc. it seems.
///ajd said:
Several brexiteers said "no one will move to Frankfurt from London". Wrong then.
I'm guessing you can't as a result of the diversions above.'Frenchie' fails again.
Tell that to the employees now looking at their jobs going to Frankfurt in your sneering tone. Plus the link may say they haven't decided whether to employ new or relocate, but that suggests these are not just "new" jobs.
Read that "we'll be streaming ahead of France and Germany" post again. Oh dear - blind misguided optimism, much?
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