The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[loafer123]

Eddie Strohacker said:

loafer123 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-19...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4280229/households-w...

You've linked a Sun article that quotes Minford & then Bootle. There is nothing backing up your assertion that Bootle backs Minford at all and it's the pissing Sun. You cannot be serious? Got anything that's written for grown ups?

Would you prefer CityAM?

http://www.cityam.com/270525/group-pro-brexit-econ...

You seem to be unaware that Minford and Bootle are both part of Economists for Brexit, who are preparing the report on unilateral free trade as a good outcome alternative to WTO.

Even an LSE report on the subject acknowledged this would be better than WTO.

[anonymous-user]

Eddies been triggered.

[///ajd]

Bootle and Minford were both part of the 8 economists who published the "Economists for Brexit".

I'll always admit there were 8 of them, but I can't see where it has gained more traction - and whilst Bootle and Minford were both in the brexit camp, Bootle has in past said they come at it from very different angles.

I don't understand this fixation on import tariffs alone. Yes, they are one issue and of course ditching the external tariff would make some stuff cheaper, but whilst also putting pressure on industries such as domestic farming. Whilst I have nothing to do with farming, I do see a strategic interest in protecting our domestic industry - and I also challenge the view that farmers are anti EU protectionism - same as the fishing/shellfish industry - dispute the rhetoric that they all are.

I'm more concerned about the external tariffs impacting of 44% of exports to the EU - including e.g. 10% on cars. If not addressed this could be enough to see some industry alter their supply chains to avoid this tariff. Attacking a 10% impact on your costs is a pretty easy target. Who wants to see an exported Jag XF jump from 40000Euro to 44000Euro? Not going to help sales or profits. And yes the currency has dropped 25% but none of this helps.

[KrissKross]

///ajd said:

I note KK seems to think trade deals are irrelevant as business just works around barriers. He doesn't seem to see the risk that businesses relocate out of the UK into the EU if we screw this up. They will indeed adapt, I suspect he doesn't have the vision or scale to move his operation between countries - others however do. And that's GDP.

You sir only seem to think in one direction with serious blinkers. I never said trade deals are irrelevant but the people who you seem to feel are experts in this area are usually not, hence why we end up worse off, the route cause of this is the EU monster, not Brexit.

I have setup a manufacturing facility in China, (10 staff), I have also been several times to Sialkot in Pakistan where a specific region specialises in making medical hand tools. I also trade with most serious countries around the planet. Vision is what I have plenty of and have travelled and met every major culture on our planet.

Your bland open ended insults and negative statements are the real problem we face, people like you unfortunately are usually in government and run their lives on some odd power trip.

Many people on this form make very sensibly comments, wherever you end up you usually ignore what they say or make negative or snide remarks, people like you are one reason I spend less time on PH, its a shame really.

[Eddie Strohacker]

jsf said:

Eddies been triggered.

[loafer123]

///ajd said:

And yes the currency has dropped 25% but none of this helps.

Errr..why doesn't this help? I can assure you that German sales for one of my businesses are thriving due to the currency devaluation, and that devaluation is far greater than the tariff would be under WTO rules.

For that business, we buy from the US (cheaper to pay the higher transport and import duties than buying from Germany, even though it is the same product made in Asia), and then sell across Europe, as well as our core market in the UK.

[Eddie Strohacker]

loafer123 said:

Would you prefer CityAM?

http://www.cityam.com/270525/group-pro-brexit-econ...

You seem to be unaware that Minford and Bootle are both part of Economists for Brexit, who are preparing the report on unilateral free trade as a good outcome alternative to WTO.

Even an LSE report on the subject acknowledged this would be better than WTO.

Yes, I'm aware of the group. So let's take one last look at the work.

Minford accounted for fall in sterling when estimating competitiveness of exports while ignoring increased cost of inputs. Oops.

That's a pretty big oversight when you consider we, as an economy mostly deal with intermediary products:



He also assumes that UK exporters would face no new EU non-tariff barriers. Again, not very credible. So, all in all, I remain surprised his work is given the prominence it has, I can only ascribe it to a desire to provide some form of balance to the impending avalanche of fk up we are about to experience. More on Economists for Brexit here:


http://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2017/04/19/will-el...

[don'tbesilly]

KrissKross said:

///ajd said:

I note KK seems to think trade deals are irrelevant as business just works around barriers. He doesn't seem to see the risk that businesses relocate out of the UK into the EU if we screw this up. They will indeed adapt, I suspect he doesn't have the vision or scale to move his operation between countries - others however do. And that's GDP.

You sir only seem to think in one direction with serious blinkers. I never said trade deals are irrelevant but the people who you seem to feel are experts in this area are usually not, hence why we end up worse off, the route cause of this is the EU monster, not Brexit.

I have setup a manufacturing facility in China, (10 staff), I have also been several times to Sialkot in Pakistan where a specific region specialises in making medical hand tools. I also trade with most serious countries around the planet. Vision is what I have plenty of and have travelled and met every major culture on our planet.

Your bland open ended insults and negative statements are the real problem we face, people like you unfortunately are usually in government and run their lives on some odd power trip.

Many people on this form make very sensibly comments, wherever you end up you usually ignore what they say or make negative or snide remarks, people like you are one reason I spend less time on PH, its a shame really.

Thanks for that, informative/ enlightening and entertaining in equal measure

[KrissKross]

don'tbesilly said:

Thanks for that, informative/ enlightening and entertaining in equal measure

Appreciate that (I think). In the real world I employ a lot of people (from many parts of the world) and work with some extremely intelligent folk. The issue is perhaps if you brag or say such things on here people will just think you are a liar.

[Tuna]

Eddie Strohacker said:

Okey dokey, although it's almost as if you missed it on purpose?!! I'd be interested to see one other credible academic study that supports Minford, if you can provide one? And I don't mean a BBC economics correspondent, straining to fulfil thier obligation for balance, especially not from someone with a fair few posts in the BBC bias love in thread. That gives the unfortunate appearance of having your cake & eating it.

Anyway, here you go....

<snip>

Ah, my mistake, I thought that was your opinion rather than something backed with some research. Turns out it was a copy and paste from The Independent. Fair enough, Winters thinks the modelling is optimistic. Can't say I agree with his predictions, especially since the comparative analyses quoted are looking at the complete Brexit package rather than just the implications of tariff reductions.

It also seems that opinions are shifting somewhat since those older reports came out:

https://iea.org.uk/publications/a-trade-policy-for...

[anonymous-user]

EU document written by the EU with regards to the goals of the now abandoned TTIP

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/january...

[don'tbesilly]

KrissKross said:

don'tbesilly said:

Thanks for that, informative/ enlightening and entertaining in equal measure

Appreciate that (I think). In the real world I employ a lot of people (from many parts of the world) and work with some extremely intelligent folk. The issue is perhaps if you brag or say such things on here people will just think you are a liar.

Yes we see the latter far too often.

It must be particularly galling for a business owner to be accused of lacking vision when the accuser knows nothing of the business, or the person behind it.

Hey ho, it will happen again, so best not to dwell on it.

[///ajd]

KrissKross said:

You sir only seem to think in one direction with serious blinkers. I never said trade deals are irrelevant but the people who you seem to feel are experts in this area are usually not, hence why we end up worse off, the route cause of this is the EU monster, not Brexit.

I have setup a manufacturing facility in China, (10 staff), I have also been several times to Sialkot in Pakistan where a specific region specialises in making medical hand tools. I also trade with most serious countries around the planet. Vision is what I have plenty of and have travelled and met every major culture on our planet.

Your bland open ended insults and negative statements are the real problem we face, people like you unfortunately are usually in government and run their lives on some odd power trip.

Many people on this form make very sensibly comments, wherever you end up you usually ignore what they say or make negative or snide remarks, people like you are one reason I spend less time on PH, its a shame really.

Why so nasty? I debunk immigration myths, so what? If that offends, it is certainly not my issue.

I like to think I think of things in several directions. You claim to have set up manufacturing outside the EU and presumably import to the UK. By this measure you stand to gain from hard brexit. Good for you.

Do you manufacture anywhere in the EU or sell into the EU?

Should those that currently manufacture in the UK follow your example and move offshore?

Do you see any negatives to being outside the SM/CU for anyone?

[KrissKross]

///ajd said:

Why so nasty? I debunk immigration myths, so what? If that offends, it is certainly not my issue.

I like to think I think of things in several directions. You claim to have set up manufacturing outside the EU and presumably import to the UK. By this measure you stand to gain from hard brexit. Good for you.

Do you manufacture anywhere in the EU or sell into the EU?

Should those that currently manufacture in the UK follow your example and move offshore?

Do you see any negatives to being outside the SM/CU for anyone?

Again you are making assumptions without knowing the full story, please ask any question you like but don't assume you know me.

I have employed and worked with immigrants for many years, I am currently helping an Indian lad get a work visa. His skills are out of this world and he will be a real asset to this country.

Immigrants that have no skills or cause trouble are a different story, they should be expelled immediately, its really that simple as they are giving the good immigrants a bad name, this is what causes tension and problems.

My Chinese business was in the past, i shut down the entire operation and returned back to the UK, we now manufacture in the UK and are extremely proud and strong advocates of British Manufacturing. And by the way we are more profitable as a result.

[alfie2244]

Sometimes it is not what you say but how you say it that influences whether people actually take note of what you are saying.............. just saying.

[KrissKross]

don'tbesilly said:

It must be particularly galling for a business owner to be accused of lacking vision when the accuser knows nothing of the business, or the person behind it.

This is why when some subjects have been raised and people seem to know a lot, in the past I ask have asked what they do in the real world, many times no answer is forthcoming. Hence you can tell quickly who just likes shouting for no apparent reason.

Not that I want to be nosy or know who they really are but if they are genuinely experts in a subject I would like to listen and learn from them.

Ideally I would like to see a 5 start rating system on PH so we can rate each other in some way.

[anonymous-user]

KrissKross said:

This is why when some subjects have been raised and people seem to know a lot, in the past I ask have asked what they do in the real world, many times no answer is forthcoming. Hence you can tell quickly who just likes shouting for no apparent reason.

Not that I want to be nosy or know who they really are but if they are genuinely experts in a subject I would like to listen and learn from them.

Ideally I would like to see a 5 start rating system on PH so we can rate each other in some way.

So long as it has a negative scale too.

I tend not to look at the name before reading the content so as not to try and prejudice my thoughts of what is written, but I can often tell who is posting without looking at their names based on the bks spouted.

[///ajd]

KrissKross said:

Again you are making assumptions without knowing the full story, please ask any question you like but don't assume you know me.

I have employed and worked with immigrants for many years, I am currently helping an Indian lad get a work visa. His skills are out of this world and he will be a real asset to this country.

Immigrants that have no skills or cause trouble are a different story, they should be expelled immediately, its really that simple as they are giving the good immigrants a bad name, this is what causes tension and problems.

My Chinese business was in the past, i shut down the entire operation and returned back to the UK, we now manufacture in the UK and are extremely proud and strong advocates of British Manufacturing. And by the way we are more profitable as a result.

I didn't intend to assume anything, just trying to piece together your point of view from what you post - this sometimes can lead to false assumptions.

I'm glad you see yourself as an ambassador for UK manufacturing; I share your enthusiasm for supporting that, even if we not may agree on whether brexit is the best way to support it. At the end of the day the well being of UK industry (a broad range, but yes, including my own) and the economy is my main interest. I couldn't care less about immigration, and I consider the number of "bad 'uns" is trivial in the big scheme of things. But its just my view.

[anonymous-user]

KrissKross said:

don'tbesilly said:

It must be particularly galling for a business owner to be accused of lacking vision when the accuser knows nothing of the business, or the person behind it.

This is why when some subjects have been raised and people seem to know a lot, in the past I ask have asked what they do in the real world, many times no answer is forthcoming. Hence you can tell quickly who just likes shouting for no apparent reason.

Not that I want to be nosy or know who they really are but if they are genuinely experts in a subject I would like to listen and learn from them.

Ideally I would like to see a 5 start rating system on PH so we can rate each other in some way.

I expect many posters have great jobs and are experts in their fields but for privacy reasons don’t want to let others know who or where they work. Perhaps it’s also linked to their social media policy, perhaps it’s just common sense,

TBH I’m surprised how many people post on contentious issues and their PHs posts or even profiles can be linked to their employment in some way, seems a very bad idea to me and many other posters too aparently,

[Tuna]

El stovey said:

I expect many posters have great jobs and are experts in their fields but for privacy reasons don’t want to let others know who or where they work. Perhaps it’s also linked to their social media policy, perhaps it’s just common sense,

Posting on here is like shouting at Question Time... not quite as therapeutic as you'd like

Most people work in environments that tend to match their political and social outlook, so some of the opinions on here might shock other members, but would probably seem less surprising to the poster's friends and family. Most of the people I know, know that I'm an asshat, and are used to ignoring my ranting, so that works out OK