The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[B'stard Child]

KrissKross said:

///ajd said:

KrissKross said:

///ajd said:

I'm not making it up.

Yes you are.

What, I'm making up Just In Time manufacturing? Which bits?

Yet more questions cross my mind about what exactly you do.

I am a paid troll, sent here by aliens just to annoy you.

Thank you for your service

[Garvin]

Never in the history of JIT manufacturing has so much utter tripe been stated by so few.

The manufacturing time of a unit (let's say a car) is governed by its longest lead item or, maybe, items. These are generally only a minority of the total components. All other items can be delivered within this timescale so whilst it is true that the overall lead time for a complete unit may be extended it is simply bks to assume that the total inventory held has to increase. One just adjusts the lead time of the call off for the various non longest lead components to match the throughput. The effect on overall efficiency and throughput is minimal.

In addition that only really holds if manufacturing is at at maximum capacity - generally the call off for components matches the steady state demand which is within the maximum capacity of the final assembly line.

When the demand is within the capacity of the line then any increase in lead time can be accommodated by ordering earlier in the cycle and, if necessary, upping the rate. If the demand exceeds the maximum capacity of the line then, generally, the unit is in great demand and the customer will wait that little bit longer for it.

[Tuna]

Garvin said:

Never in the history of JIT manufacturing has so much utter tripe been stated by so few.

The manufacturing time of a unit (let's say a car) is governed by its longest lead item or, maybe, items. These are generally only a minority of the total components. All other items can be delivered within this timescale so whilst it is true that the overall lead time for a complete unit may be extended it is simply bks to assume that the total inventory held has to increase. One just adjusts the lead time of the call off for the various non longest lead components to match the throughput. The effect on overall efficiency and throughput is minimal.

In addition that only really holds if manufacturing is at at maximum capacity - generally the call off for components matches the steady state demand which is within the maximum capacity of the final assembly line.

When the demand is within the capacity of the line then any increase in lead time can be accommodated by ordering earlier in the cycle and, if necessary, upping the rate. If the demand exceeds the maximum capacity of the line then, generally, the unit is in great demand and the customer will wait that little bit longer for it.

Is that a long way of saying //ajd is talking rubbish?

I did wonder how having something spend an extra day in customs meant you had to hold more of that stock.

[mickmcpaddy]

That piece of st blair is at it again.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4896678/To...

He blamed this on the economic crash and a sense of anger at social and wealth inequality.

So he blames himself then seen as it was him and that japs eyed wker that caused the crash in the first place. What a despicable spunk faced cretin he is.

[Garvin]

Tuna said:

Is that a long way of saying //ajd is talking rubbish?

[Urquart]You might think that. I couldn't possibly comment.[/Urquart]

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

I suspect you might be surprised at the leadtimes in a modern production facility employing JIT or similar methodologies.

It's been a long time since I was involved in the engineering side of such manufacturing, but it is not unusual for some production lines to demand stock to arrive only hours before it is assembled into product.

A need to double stock levels in your example could be a considerable disadvantage in a given supply chain. It is not only about the time taken for a product to reach a customer - typical benefits to an industrial process include:

- better quality products
- quality the responsibility of every worker, not just quality control inspectors
- reduced scrap and rework
- reduced cycle times
- lower setup times
- smoother production flow
- less inventory, of raw materials, work-in-progress and finished goods
- cost savings
- higher productivity
- higher worker participation
- more skilled workforce, able and wiling to switch roles
- reduced space requirements
- improved relationships with suppliers

Manufacturing Engineering degree from the University of Cut and Paste?

[Crackie]

///ajd said:

I suspect you might be surprised at the leadtimes in a modern production facility employing JIT or similar methodologies.

It's been a long time since I was involved in the engineering side of such manufacturing, but it is not unusual for some production lines to demand stock to arrive only hours before it is assembled into product.

A need to double stock levels in your example could be a considerable disadvantage in a given supply chain. It is not only about the time taken for a product to reach a customer - typical benefits to an industrial process include:

- better quality products
- quality the responsibility of every worker, not just quality control inspectors
- reduced scrap and rework
- reduced cycle times
- lower setup times
- smoother production flow
- less inventory, of raw materials, work-in-progress and finished goods
- cost savings
- higher productivity
- higher worker participation*****
- more skilled workforce, able and wiling to switch roles
- reduced space requirements
- improved relationships with suppliers****

An automotive manufacturer that has leaned out its production and maximised the benefits of custom free supply chains will be pretty hacked off if Govt fumbling on brexit shafts their hard won efficiency.

The suggestion that they should be preparing for hard brexit by inserting fat and inefficiency in their supply chains is frankly hilarious. Not quite up there with bankers into fishermen, but another example of how "ignoring experts" is not going to end well.

Hardly surprising but that is complete and utter nonsense ajd. Please explain how JIT benefits the fields shown, in bold above, in any way whatsoever.........
In my experience the fields identified with asterisks suffer as a result of JIT....

Edited by Crackie on Monday 18th September 23:11

[B'stard Child]

///ajd said:

typical benefits to an industrial process include:

- better quality products
- quality the responsibility of every worker, not just quality control inspectors
- reduced scrap and rework
- reduced cycle times
- lower setup times
- smoother production flow
- less inventory, of raw materials, work-in-progress and finished goods
- cost savings
- higher productivity
- higher worker participation
- more skilled workforce, able and wiling to switch roles
- reduced space requirements
- improved relationships with suppliers

The only benefits of JIT in my industry are the ones in Bold above

Get JIT wrong and the some of the disadvantages are

- increased cycle times and reduced output due to downtime associated with unplanned changes
- diss-jointed production flow
- increased inventory of work-in-progress or semi finished goods
- cost increases that outweigh any previously gained savings as a result of JIT supply
- lower productivity
- poor relationships with suppliers

[s2art]

B'stard Child said:

///ajd said:

typical benefits to an industrial process include:

- better quality products
- quality the responsibility of every worker, not just quality control inspectors
- reduced scrap and rework
- reduced cycle times
- lower setup times
- smoother production flow
- less inventory, of raw materials, work-in-progress and finished goods
- cost savings
- higher productivity
- higher worker participation
- more skilled workforce, able and wiling to switch roles
- reduced space requirements
- improved relationships with suppliers

The only benefits of JIT in my industry are the ones in Bold above

Get JIT wrong and the some of the disadvantages are

- increased cycle times and reduced output due to downtime associated with unplanned changes
- diss-jointed production flow
- increased inventory of work-in-progress or semi finished goods
- cost increases that outweigh any previously gained savings as a result of JIT supply
- lower productivity
- poor relationships with suppliers

Yup. And its easy to go wrong. It was termed 'Just too late' at one major manufacturer.

[Crackie]

///ajd said:

KrissKross said:

///ajd said:

I'm not making it up.

Yes you are.

What, I'm making up Just In Time manufacturing? Which bits?

Which bits ? Most of it ajd, most of your post about JIT was inaccurate gibberish.......

[Murph7355]

Garvin said:

Never in the history of JIT manufacturing has so much utter tripe been stated by so few.

The manufacturing time of a unit (let's say a car) is governed by its longest lead item or, maybe, items. These are generally only a minority of the total components. All other items can be delivered within this timescale so whilst it is true that the overall lead time for a complete unit may be extended it is simply bks to assume that the total inventory held has to increase. One just adjusts the lead time of the call off for the various non longest lead components to match the throughput. The effect on overall efficiency and throughput is minimal.

In addition that only really holds if manufacturing is at at maximum capacity - generally the call off for components matches the steady state demand which is within the maximum capacity of the final assembly line.

When the demand is within the capacity of the line then any increase in lead time can be accommodated by ordering earlier in the cycle and, if necessary, upping the rate. If the demand exceeds the maximum capacity of the line then, generally, the unit is in great demand and the customer will wait that little bit longer for it.

This makes far, far more logical sense and fits with "good process" in other fields IME.

[B'stard Child]

Crackie said:

///ajd said:

KrissKross said:

///ajd said:

I'm not making it up.

Yes you are.

What, I'm making up Just In Time manufacturing? Which bits?

Which bits ? Most of it ajd, most of your post about JIT was inaccurate gibberish.......

To be fair he did say.........

///ajd said:

It's been a long time since I was involved in the engineering side of such manufacturing, but it is not unusual for some production lines to demand stock to arrive only hours before it is assembled into product.

But I think he just googled "JIT advantages" and copied and pasted.........

If you google "JIT" it always returns advantages and disadvantages.........

We run JIT on 9 product lines and it can be fun when there is an accident on the UK roads, disruption on the European ports side or bad weather in the "la Manche"

I have run JIT on materials sourced from the USA by container ship but that was an accident

[anonymous-user]

Murph7355 said:

The article read far more as a vested interest party using/trying to use leverage rather than there being genuine, material issues..

I would read it differently-yes they've been deliberately shown but the main source of the article seems to be internal memos, not public statements.

I am kind of amused though that at every juncture the resident Brexiteers can just tell that there's no real risk. The CEO's etc don't know anything about their businesses or it's just companies trying to use their leverage.

Is there anything in that the Brexiteers would consider worrying? If not that's a bit worrying in itself!

[Sway]

cookie118 said:

Murph7355 said:

The article read far more as a vested interest party using/trying to use leverage rather than there being genuine, material issues..

I would read it differently-yes they've been deliberately shown but the main source of the article seems to be internal memos, not public statements.

I am kind of amused though that at every juncture the resident Brexiteers can just tell that there's no real risk. The CEO's etc don't know anything about their businesses or it's just companies trying to use their leverage.

Is there anything in that the Brexiteers would consider worrying? If not that's a bit worrying in itself!

There is plenty of things I'd be worried about.

However, a deliberately leaked 'memo' that contains statements that don't stand logical reading (and as you may have noticed there's a chunk of people here with professional knowledge of JIT, likely beyond that of a CEO) then you have to question things...

[John145]

cookie118 said:

Murph7355 said:

The article read far more as a vested interest party using/trying to use leverage rather than there being genuine, material issues..

I would read it differently-yes they've been deliberately shown but the main source of the article seems to be internal memos, not public statements.

I am kind of amused though that at every juncture the resident Brexiteers can just tell that there's no real risk. The CEO's etc don't know anything about their businesses or it's just companies trying to use their leverage.

Is there anything in that the Brexiteers would consider worrying? If not that's a bit worrying in itself!

TBH I was worried about the idea of an EU army but was reassured when our glorious remainer leaders said this would never happen.

One thing for me is power creep and the lack of acknowledgement by one side of the argument to this.

What worries me about Brexit? That it won't happen. We're either fully in or fully out and this half way house we've had for the past decade is farcical and expensive. So for me, we're fully out and I can appreciate there are those who are fully in. To be fully in is to end the monarchy, the HoL, the HoC, the Supreme Court and accept complete dominion of the EU.

[Crackie]

B'stard Child said:

Crackie said:

///ajd said:

KrissKross said:

///ajd said:

I'm not making it up.

Yes you are.

What, I'm making up Just In Time manufacturing? Which bits?

Which bits ? Most of it ajd, most of your post about JIT was inaccurate gibberish.......

To be fair he did say.........

///ajd said:

It's been a long time since I was involved in the engineering side of such manufacturing, but it is not unusual for some production lines to demand stock to arrive only hours before it is assembled into product.

But I think he just googled "JIT advantages" and copied and pasted.........

If you google "JIT" it always returns advantages and disadvantages.........

We run JIT on 9 product lines and it can be fun when there is an accident on the UK roads, disruption on the European ports side or bad weather in the "la Manche"

I have run JIT on materials sourced from the USA by container ship but that was an accident

Fair enough, ajd did qualify his post slightly by saying he hadn't been involved for a long time and I qualified mine by saying most of ajd's post was bks, not all of it. However, it does little for ajd's credibility, such that it is, to patronise, condescend and pontificate on PH about a subject he clearly limited knowledge or understanding of.

[Troubleatmill]

Crackie said:

Fair enough, ajd did qualify his post slightly by saying he hadn't been involved for a long time and I qualified mine by saying most of ajd's post was bks, not all of it. However, it does little for ajd's credibility, such that it is, to patronise, condescend and pontificate on PH about a subject he clearly limited knowledge or understanding of.

Slasher ensures this thread is comedy gold almost on a daily basis.

[turbobloke]

cookie118 said:

I am kind of amused though that at every juncture the resident Brexiteers can just tell that there's no real risk.

Having missed all those posts you've seen ('no real risk') a quote or two and a link would be very helpful at this point - it's curious you chose not to give an example or two given that this absence makes your claim look like it's made up.

There's real risk in Remaining, real risk in getting out of bed - particularly when taking a phone call while in bed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howabou...

Lancashire County Council paid £5,500 to a member of staff who injured their back when they fell while getting out of bed to respond to a work call.

[Murph7355]

cookie118 said:

...
Is there anything in that the Brexiteers would consider worrying? If not that's a bit worrying in itself!

In that specific article?

The veiled threats of reversing decisions/production plans aren't great and the risk of losing a chunk of manufacturing jobs is not ideal. Far from it.

But here's the rub...

No matter which way the vote had gone, that risk was omnipresent.

Car manufacturing jobs have moved location for many reasons in the past. Had we voted remain, there is absolutely no guarantee that would not have continued. And no guarantee the risk was lesser with a remain vote.

Same thing goes for FS jobs.

In a globalised world, nobody owes the country a living whether we're part of a protectionist bloc or not. We need to adapt, be agile and our politicians need to be careful to balance their responses to lobbying.

So yes, the article presents some alarm bells. Are they unique to the referendum outcome? No.

[Tuna]

cookie118 said:

Is there anything in that the Brexiteers would consider worrying? If not that's a bit worrying in itself!

Personally I'd find a political fudge very worrying as it could give us all the disadvantages Remainers worry about (no influence in Europe etc,) and all the disadvantages Leavers worry about (hands tied over trade and regulation). We've got to get it into our heads that we don't need to be reliant on Europe for the success of this country. That would be true whether we stayed in or out, but a compromise agreement risks enshrining the idea that we need their help to exist whilst preventing us growing as an independent nation.

I worry about this ending up as an additional layer of legislation and bureaucracy rather than a step towards lean and agile trade and government.

I really worry about Blair.

At the moment though, my biggest concern is that the negotiations get compromised by pundits desperate for an early 'result' that suits their prejudices. It's a huge amount of pressure to put on one team, but they've got to go through the process.

I'm also worried that May will be pressured to be seen to be in charge, so will make some knee jerk pronouncement on the direction of the talks.