The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
Sway said:
If we're talking about lean operations, then that level of transport waste should have already been designed out...
Exactly my point the waste has been designed out but the Government wants to change the design.Sway said:
Further, in that scenario everyone other than the final shipment to customer would be operating under IPR, and so would have pre-cleared customs. There are also many routes by which goods can take to minimise any variations.
Some commodity components may well travel back and forth. Fortunately, as commodities utilised across many manufacturers within the industry and sold by spares providers, they're not going to be an issue, and are often run via kanban - and the costs and risks of inventory holding are significantly reduced.
I am fully aware of modern manufacturing supply chain operations and the complexity within them - I am currently half way through introducing the very things we are talking about here for my current client, taking a third out of the controllable material spend per device, in an industry which has far lower volumes and far greater external variability that that seen in automotive mass production, which is a doddle in comparison...
Do you mean this IP? Which only covers customs duties nothing about standards.Some commodity components may well travel back and forth. Fortunately, as commodities utilised across many manufacturers within the industry and sold by spares providers, they're not going to be an issue, and are often run via kanban - and the costs and risks of inventory holding are significantly reduced.
I am fully aware of modern manufacturing supply chain operations and the complexity within them - I am currently half way through introducing the very things we are talking about here for my current client, taking a third out of the controllable material spend per device, in an industry which has far lower volumes and far greater external variability that that seen in automotive mass production, which is a doddle in comparison...
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/inward-processing
John145 said:
SilverSixer said:
jsf said:
SilverSixer said:
Vote Leave's Project Fear was the real Project Fear. All the blather about Remain being fear based was merely projection. The economic fallout of brexit is beginning, is real and will be enormously difficult to arrest.
Do you still believe the Osborne treasury report on the impact of leaving the EU is correct?But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
I glad someone can see excitement in my list of brexit-induced calamities. I certainly feel none.
SilverSixer said:
John145 said:
SilverSixer said:
jsf said:
SilverSixer said:
Vote Leave's Project Fear was the real Project Fear. All the blather about Remain being fear based was merely projection. The economic fallout of brexit is beginning, is real and will be enormously difficult to arrest.
Do you still believe the Osborne treasury report on the impact of leaving the EU is correct?But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
I glad someone can see excitement in my list of brexit-induced calamities. I certainly feel none.
John145 said:
So people are leaving the country in droves regardless of SES? I'd love to see even an iota of evidence for this. What's actually happening is there are slightly fewer arrivals than last year, so no new record for net migration. A good thing.
Here's your "good thing". Lot less tax being collected. Lots of business unable to fill vacancies. It's only going to get worse.https://www.ft.com/content/81b25aa0-4129-11e7-9d56...
SilverSixer said:
Here's your "good thing". Lot less tax being collected. Lots of business unable to fill vacancies. It's only going to get worse.
https://www.ft.com/content/81b25aa0-4129-11e7-9d56...
But the Government claims we have the highest employment ever.https://www.ft.com/content/81b25aa0-4129-11e7-9d56...
SilverSixer said:
What's contradictory about the fact we're losing both skilled and unskilled workers? Both can happen simultaneously. Both categories are seeing better opportunities elsewhere because of such things as the depressed exchange rate.
I glad someone can see excitement in my list of brexit-induced calamities. I certainly feel none.
The population of the UK is continuing to increase and will do so for some time to come. So some people may well be emigrating (it has always been so) but more are coming in to replace them. We are not losing workers, the working population is growing, which is why we have record numbers of people in work and the lowest unemployed as a percentage of the available workforce for decades.I glad someone can see excitement in my list of brexit-induced calamities. I certainly feel none.
Put the hyperbole down and think about what you are typing.
SilverSixer said:
John145 said:
So people are leaving the country in droves regardless of SES? I'd love to see even an iota of evidence for this. What's actually happening is there are slightly fewer arrivals than last year, so no new record for net migration. A good thing.
Here's your "good thing". Lot less tax being collected. Lots of business unable to fill vacancies. It's only going to get worse.https://www.ft.com/content/81b25aa0-4129-11e7-9d56...
Did you also read in the FT that house prices were showing a slow down? Is this doom and gloom or good? Guess it just depends on what story you want to spin.
For me it's quite a simple question, do house price rises exceed salary rises? Yes = bad, no = good.
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
If we're talking about lean operations, then that level of transport waste should have already been designed out...
Exactly my point the waste has been designed out but the Government wants to change the design.Sway said:
Further, in that scenario everyone other than the final shipment to customer would be operating under IPR, and so would have pre-cleared customs. There are also many routes by which goods can take to minimise any variations.
Some commodity components may well travel back and forth. Fortunately, as commodities utilised across many manufacturers within the industry and sold by spares providers, they're not going to be an issue, and are often run via kanban - and the costs and risks of inventory holding are significantly reduced.
I am fully aware of modern manufacturing supply chain operations and the complexity within them - I am currently half way through introducing the very things we are talking about here for my current client, taking a third out of the controllable material spend per device, in an industry which has far lower volumes and far greater external variability that that seen in automotive mass production, which is a doddle in comparison...
Do you mean this IP? Which only covers customs duties nothing about standards.Some commodity components may well travel back and forth. Fortunately, as commodities utilised across many manufacturers within the industry and sold by spares providers, they're not going to be an issue, and are often run via kanban - and the costs and risks of inventory holding are significantly reduced.
I am fully aware of modern manufacturing supply chain operations and the complexity within them - I am currently half way through introducing the very things we are talking about here for my current client, taking a third out of the controllable material spend per device, in an industry which has far lower volumes and far greater external variability that that seen in automotive mass production, which is a doddle in comparison...
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/inward-processing
IPR relief means the tariffs aren't a consideration. Standards is a doddle - these components are certified for multiple jurisdictions already, and a customs officer really isn't going to hold things up when there is so much documentation provided instantly upon request.
SilverSixer said:
Presume what you like old pip. I thought the Treasury was probably a bit over the top but broadly right, and I believe if we go ahead with brexit the way it's being handled currently they're likely to be borne out as broadly accurate in the end. Hope that answers your concerns.
What I'm interested in now is that the country's being dragged down economically and reputationally by this ludicrous project, the remain side warned you of all these consequences, and no-one seems willing to either progress the project like a grown-up or admit it's too hard and stop it - yet. We can but hope.
A bit over the top? They skewed the figures by a huge margin, for example using a figure of 115% (over double) advantage to being in the EU for inter country trade exporters when that figure is the average for the whole EU and the UK figure is only 25%. This was how they came up with the figure they did for the loss of GDP if we leave. They also neglected to take into account any movement in sterling or any gains we could make by trading under our own tariff regime. They also neglected to take into account our trade with the EU even if we stay in was forecast to drop further to below 35%. The overall effect of our membership of the EU is we are paying 7% of our export value in cost to save an average 4% tariff if we were not members, that's not a good deal economically for the nation as a whole.What I'm interested in now is that the country's being dragged down economically and reputationally by this ludicrous project, the remain side warned you of all these consequences, and no-one seems willing to either progress the project like a grown-up or admit it's too hard and stop it - yet. We can but hope.
There is nothing ludicrous about extracting ourselves from such a protectionist block, just on economic terms we will be better off long term.
If the boe raised interest rates to 4.5% the pound would sky rocket.
It is currently buried as it is an easy sell at the moment and is not based on fundamentals.
You could argue that some drop was due to capital outflow but an interest rate rise would stem the bleeding as our cousins in the eurozone can only dream of raising rates as they preside over a zombie economy.
The current malaise with the pound is down to BOE mismanagement of interest rates.
It is currently buried as it is an easy sell at the moment and is not based on fundamentals.
You could argue that some drop was due to capital outflow but an interest rate rise would stem the bleeding as our cousins in the eurozone can only dream of raising rates as they preside over a zombie economy.
The current malaise with the pound is down to BOE mismanagement of interest rates.
jsf said:
SilverSixer said:
Presume what you like old pip. I thought the Treasury was probably a bit over the top but broadly right, and I believe if we go ahead with brexit the way it's being handled currently they're likely to be borne out as broadly accurate in the end. Hope that answers your concerns.
What I'm interested in now is that the country's being dragged down economically and reputationally by this ludicrous project, the remain side warned you of all these consequences, and no-one seems willing to either progress the project like a grown-up or admit it's too hard and stop it - yet. We can but hope.
A bit over the top? They skewed the figures by a huge margin, for example using a figure of 115% (over double) advantage to being in the EU for inter country trade exporters when that figure is the average for the whole EU and the UK figure is only 25%. This was how they came up with the figure they did for the loss of GDP if we leave. They also neglected to take into account any movement in sterling or any gains we could make by trading under our own tariff regime. They also neglected to take into account our trade with the EU even if we stay in was forecast to drop further to below 35%. The overall effect of our membership of the EU is we are paying 7% of our export value in cost to save an average 4% tariff if we were not members, that's not a good deal economically for the nation as a whole.What I'm interested in now is that the country's being dragged down economically and reputationally by this ludicrous project, the remain side warned you of all these consequences, and no-one seems willing to either progress the project like a grown-up or admit it's too hard and stop it - yet. We can but hope.
There is nothing ludicrous about extracting ourselves from such a protectionist block, just on economic terms we will be better off long term.
SilverSixer said:
Who cares? He's history. The real damage to the British economy is now beginning. Slowing growth, inflation, entrenched stagnation of wages, brain drain, loss of unskilled migrant workers, loss of critical NHS staff in huge numbers, weakness of pound discouraging people from living, working and setting up business here, not to mention business failing to invest and planning to jump ship, rising interest rates soon.
But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
Haven't noticed a blind bit of difference to anything much, frankly. Good or Bad. Life goes on. Also, if we have those things, where have you been for the last 10 years when we also had them? But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
Carl_Manchester said:
If the boe raised interest rates to 4.5% the pound would sky rocket.
It is currently buried as it is an easy sell at the moment and is not based on fundamentals.
You could argue that some drop was due to capital outflow but an interest rate rise would stem the bleeding as our cousins in the eurozone can only dream of raising rates as they preside over a zombie economy.
The current malaise with the pound is down to BOE mismanagement of interest rates.
It is currently buried as it is an easy sell at the moment and is not based on fundamentals.
You could argue that some drop was due to capital outflow but an interest rate rise would stem the bleeding as our cousins in the eurozone can only dream of raising rates as they preside over a zombie economy.
The current malaise with the pound is down to BOE mismanagement of interest rates.
confused_buyer said:
SilverSixer said:
Who cares? He's history. The real damage to the British economy is now beginning. Slowing growth, inflation, entrenched stagnation of wages, brain drain, loss of unskilled migrant workers, loss of critical NHS staff in huge numbers, weakness of pound discouraging people from living, working and setting up business here, not to mention business failing to invest and planning to jump ship, rising interest rates soon.
But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
Haven't noticed a blind bit of difference to anything much, frankly. Good or Bad. Life goes on. Also, if we have those things, where have you been for the last 10 years when we also had them? But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
He must be a bundle of joy at the breakfast table.
SilverSixer said:
Who cares? He's history. The real damage to the British economy is now beginning. Slowing growth, inflation, entrenched stagnation of wages, brain drain, loss of unskilled migrant workers, loss of critical NHS staff in huge numbers, weakness of pound discouraging people from living, working and setting up business here, not to mention business failing to invest and planning to jump ship, rising interest rates soon.
Two things.1) I don't know which crystal ball you're using, but I'm not seeing any real evidence for the things you're claiming outside of fairly natural variance.
2) Do you also happen to have any evidence whatsoever that things would be any different if we'd stayed?
It really feels like some groups are talking themselves into a state of hysteria. All the people I'm working with seem to be pretty happy - and the business I'm working with is drowning in orders and enquiries from around the world. We're spending thousands on new equipment and recruiting as fast as we can.
Anyone who isn't expecting interest rates to rise is a bit of an idiot. We've had a sustained period of historically minimal rates whilst QE and other instruments have been running unchecked. What happens next is predictable and nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit. Whilst the timings may be different, it's more than likely to happen on the continent as well. For that matter, a market crash wouldn't be too much of a surprise. But apparently according to some people the only thing affecting our economy right now is David Davies sitting in a room in Brussels.
turbobloke said:
Indeed - however for anyone minded to swallow BBC / Guardian dreck, we're doomed beyond Captain Mainwaring's worst fears.
TB I have nothing but respect for you, but in this instance you are wrong. It was PrivateFraser who was doomed.
Edited by princealbert23 on Tuesday 19th September 19:46
Funkycoldribena said:
confused_buyer said:
SilverSixer said:
Who cares? He's history. The real damage to the British economy is now beginning. Slowing growth, inflation, entrenched stagnation of wages, brain drain, loss of unskilled migrant workers, loss of critical NHS staff in huge numbers, weakness of pound discouraging people from living, working and setting up business here, not to mention business failing to invest and planning to jump ship, rising interest rates soon.
But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
Haven't noticed a blind bit of difference to anything much, frankly. Good or Bad. Life goes on. Also, if we have those things, where have you been for the last 10 years when we also had them? But yeah, woo yay brexit. I'm being an unpatriotic moaner talking the country down.
He must be a bundle of joy at the breakfast table.
If the brain drain is reducing on eastern Europe and people now don't have to travel to the UK to do a crap job for crap money and can now stay in their own country if they wish to and do a decent job for decent money surely that is progress and a good thing if you actually give a s
t about the well being of Europe at large?That may mean the UK has to abandon the economic fantasy of "growth" derived from cheap immigrant labour, expanding population and house prices and actually build an economy based around decent jobs paying decent wages to both natives and immigrants alike. If so, good, Brexit or not.
Cheap labour from Europe was never going to last forever and if it equalises across Europe more it is better for everyone and means the UK will need to get it's arse in gear.
confused_buyer said:
A lot of it is basically bemoaning that the UK should have an innate right to extract the brightest and the best from the poorer European countries (ignoring the very negative effect said brain drain will have on them ever developing their economies to the same wealth as other EU countries) and also implies the UK should build it's economy based on a never ending supply of cheap, desperate Eastern & Southern European labour the British can basically exploit and make a packet out of paying them bugger all to do menial jobs and get rich on. Nice "European" liberal attitude that is.
If the brain drain is reducing on eastern Europe and people now don't have to travel to the UK to do a crap job for crap money and can now stay in their own country if they wish to and do a decent job for decent money surely that is progress and a good thing if you actually give a st about the well being of Europe at large?
That may mean the UK has to abandon the economic fantasy of "growth" derived from cheap immigrant labour, expanding population and house prices and actually build an economy based around decent jobs paying decent wages to both natives and immigrants alike. If so, good, Brexit or not.
Cheap labour from Europe was never going to last forever and if it equalises across Europe more it is better for everyone and means the UK will need to get it's arse in gear.
I've said very similar before.If the brain drain is reducing on eastern Europe and people now don't have to travel to the UK to do a crap job for crap money and can now stay in their own country if they wish to and do a decent job for decent money surely that is progress and a good thing if you actually give a s
t about the well being of Europe at large?That may mean the UK has to abandon the economic fantasy of "growth" derived from cheap immigrant labour, expanding population and house prices and actually build an economy based around decent jobs paying decent wages to both natives and immigrants alike. If so, good, Brexit or not.
Cheap labour from Europe was never going to last forever and if it equalises across Europe more it is better for everyone and means the UK will need to get it's arse in gear.
I wonder if those shouting the loudest are in danger of losing their cheap labour?
There was a documentary a couple of years ago where it was showing ghost towns in Poland, there was a certain irony that North Koreans were picking their fruit. (Nks Banned now).
Interesting to see the mocking over JIT.
I made it clear it was a long time ago since I have been involved in production engineering, but the principles are fairly clear and not rocket science.
Murph seemed to really struggle with what methodologies like JIT, MRP and Kanban are about, so I tried to provide examples, and why it is really nothing to do with the leadtime of a product from factory to a customer. He seemed to think it was about an extra days delay to a customers car. This could not really be further from the real point of such methodologies.
The list I cut and paste to was from a JIT source, so hardly "utter garbage" - I was just trying to shed a little light on the subject for someone with no idea - not a criticism, but obvious nevertheless.
It is not possible today to dismiss a supply chain/logistic impact from brexit as no-one knows how frictionless our borders will remain. Certainly anyone saying "it will be no problem" is only guessing.
BMW / Rolls Royce mentioned supply chain considerations may lead to a relocation of their production to Germany. They are not talking "utter garbage" just for giggles.
My final observation would be that I have wondered for some time who the professional engineers are here, and who perhaps who like to think they are but are not.
Certainly I would be very surprised if any CEng would describe my short description & list of JIT benefits as "utter garbage". A chippy technician might, or someone so blinkered by Brexit that they are willing to dismiss any concerns as non-existent. I could be wrong of course, hard to really tell, but that is the perception given.
I made it clear it was a long time ago since I have been involved in production engineering, but the principles are fairly clear and not rocket science.
Murph seemed to really struggle with what methodologies like JIT, MRP and Kanban are about, so I tried to provide examples, and why it is really nothing to do with the leadtime of a product from factory to a customer. He seemed to think it was about an extra days delay to a customers car. This could not really be further from the real point of such methodologies.
The list I cut and paste to was from a JIT source, so hardly "utter garbage" - I was just trying to shed a little light on the subject for someone with no idea - not a criticism, but obvious nevertheless.
It is not possible today to dismiss a supply chain/logistic impact from brexit as no-one knows how frictionless our borders will remain. Certainly anyone saying "it will be no problem" is only guessing.
BMW / Rolls Royce mentioned supply chain considerations may lead to a relocation of their production to Germany. They are not talking "utter garbage" just for giggles.
My final observation would be that I have wondered for some time who the professional engineers are here, and who perhaps who like to think they are but are not.
Certainly I would be very surprised if any CEng would describe my short description & list of JIT benefits as "utter garbage". A chippy technician might, or someone so blinkered by Brexit that they are willing to dismiss any concerns as non-existent. I could be wrong of course, hard to really tell, but that is the perception given.
///ajd said:
Interesting to see the mocking over JIT.
I made it clear it was a long time ago since I have been involved in production engineering, but the principles are fairly clear and not rocket science.
Murph seemed to really struggle with what methodologies like JIT, MRP and Kanban are about, so I tried to provide examples, and why it is really nothing to do with the leadtime of a product from factory to a customer. He seemed to think it was about an extra days delay to a customers car. This could not really be further from the real point of such methodologies.
The list I cut and paste to was from a JIT source, so hardly "utter garbage" - I was just trying to shed a little light on the subject for someone with no idea - not a criticism, but obvious nevertheless.
It is not possible today to dismiss a supply chain/logistic impact from brexit as no-one knows how frictionless our borders will remain. Certainly anyone saying "it will be no problem" is only guessing.
BMW / Rolls Royce mentioned supply chain considerations may lead to a relocation of their production to Germany. They are not talking "utter garbage" just for giggles.
My final observation would be that I have wondered for some time who the professional engineers are here, and who perhaps who like to think they are but are not.
Certainly I would be very surprised if any CEng would describe my short description & list of JIT benefits as "utter garbage". A chippy technician might, or someone so blinkered by Brexit that they are willing to dismiss any concerns as non-existent. I could be wrong of course, hard to really tell, but that is the perception given.
When you are in a hole - stop digging.I made it clear it was a long time ago since I have been involved in production engineering, but the principles are fairly clear and not rocket science.
Murph seemed to really struggle with what methodologies like JIT, MRP and Kanban are about, so I tried to provide examples, and why it is really nothing to do with the leadtime of a product from factory to a customer. He seemed to think it was about an extra days delay to a customers car. This could not really be further from the real point of such methodologies.
The list I cut and paste to was from a JIT source, so hardly "utter garbage" - I was just trying to shed a little light on the subject for someone with no idea - not a criticism, but obvious nevertheless.
It is not possible today to dismiss a supply chain/logistic impact from brexit as no-one knows how frictionless our borders will remain. Certainly anyone saying "it will be no problem" is only guessing.
BMW / Rolls Royce mentioned supply chain considerations may lead to a relocation of their production to Germany. They are not talking "utter garbage" just for giggles.
My final observation would be that I have wondered for some time who the professional engineers are here, and who perhaps who like to think they are but are not.
Certainly I would be very surprised if any CEng would describe my short description & list of JIT benefits as "utter garbage". A chippy technician might, or someone so blinkered by Brexit that they are willing to dismiss any concerns as non-existent. I could be wrong of course, hard to really tell, but that is the perception given.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff