The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[shielsy]

Einion Yrth said:

shielsy said:

the huge drop in the pound.

Forex changes pretty unremarkable; agenda much?

It's still what, 10% down on where it was? Although as I write that I do realise it has been a long time since the vote and it can't be assumed that the £ would be worth more now if the vote went the other way. Forget the £ argument then.

But the rest of it hasn't come free of charge up until now. Do you think we are better off now than 18 months ago Einion Yrth? Economically, politically or on any other basis?

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

shielsy said:

It's impossible to calculate even a ball park figure of what Brexit is going to cost in the long run... far too many variables and unknowns.

Including the benefits, to consider alongside the costs.

No, no, the glass is always half empty, you damn optimist.

[shielsy]

turbobloke said:

shielsy said:

It's impossible to calculate even a ball park figure of what Brexit is going to cost in the long run... far too many variables and unknowns.

Including the benefits, to consider alongside the costs.

I'll take that, good point

[turbobloke]

shielsy said:

Einion Yrth said:

shielsy said:

the huge drop in the pound.

Forex changes pretty unremarkable; agenda much?

It's still what, 10% down on where it was? Although as I write that I do realise it has been a long time since the vote and it can't be assumed that the £ would be worth more now if the vote went the other way. Forget the £ argument then.

But the rest of it hasn't come free of charge up until now. Do you think we are better off now than 18 months ago Einion Yrth? Economically, politically or on any other basis?

Why should we be better off now than 18 months ago?

People in work are usually better off 18 hours after pay day, it changes and varies over time.

There are also many variables beyond brexit that have an impact on how well off 'we' are. Are you capable of separating these out? How?

[anonymous-user]

shielsy said:

turbobloke said:

shielsy said:

It's impossible to calculate even a ball park figure of what Brexit is going to cost in the long run... far too many variables and unknowns.

Including the benefits, to consider alongside the costs.

I'll take that, good point

What we are doing now will set the countries direction for a long period, I have never looked at Brexit as a short term change, its far more about what kind of politics and economy the next generations will live through. The short term costs of implementation are insignificant.

[citizensm1th]

shielsy said:

Just a thought as I read todays Brexit news on the Beeb... Regarding the imminent transition deal Mrs May is scheduled to deliver tomorrow. Something in the region of €20bn to keep us in the single market for couple of additional years.

It's impossible to calculate even a ball park figure of what Brexit is going to cost in the long run... far too many variables and unknowns.

Having said that I'd love to know what the cost of Brexit is so far, given that it doesn't require a crystal ball to calculate. I'm talking everything from the referendum itself, the campaigns, the last election, the government man hours, the various new committees, negotiations so far and the huge drop in the pound. It must be utterly collosal already let alone in 5 years time.

But any price is worth paying for our freedom silly boy

you know self determination in a global market place with globalised markets will be worth any price even if we have sold our future generations a bucket full of uncertainty.

let alone restricting their opportunity to experience working in europe (unless they are in the lucky position of being qualified and experienced in some esoteric skill so in demand and so obscure that no other european can do it)

think of all the poor lads who no longer will be able to bugger off to spain for the summer working in time share and bars and shagging swedes

this may or may not be a serious post as arguing on here about brexit is pointless and our brexiteer friends will never admit that its not quite going to go the way they would wish it on the road to the land of honey and milk.

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

[turbobloke]

jsf said:

shielsy said:

turbobloke said:

shielsy said:

It's impossible to calculate even a ball park figure of what Brexit is going to cost in the long run... far too many variables and unknowns.

Including the benefits, to consider alongside the costs.

I'll take that, good point

What we are doing now will set the countries direction for a long period, I have never looked at Brexit as a short term change, its far more about what kind of politics and economy the next generations will live through. The short term costs of implementation are insignificant.

True enough. Then in the longer-term, as shielsy pointed out above, separating out and quantifying the "brexit only" aspects will be pretty much impossible anyway.

Another factor to consider is that some benefits won't be measurable in GBP. They were important to Leave voters and will remain so.

[CaptainSlow]

I don't think any Brexiters said it would be pain free in the short term...however many if not most Remainers predicted "immediate" and "profound" economic disaster after a leave vote.

[B'stard Child]

citizensm1th said:

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

Indeed they will but I might have to wait a bit longer than a couple of years

[shielsy]

turbobloke said:

There are also many variables beyond brexit that have an impact on how well off 'we' are. Are you capable of separating these out? How?

No, I'm not capable of that. Not by any stretch.

Although I am capable of searching Google for "cost of Brexit so far" and reading what people who are qualified in this field have got to say about it.

[Funkycoldribena]

B'stard Child said:

citizensm1th said:

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

Indeed they will but I might have to wait a bit longer than a couple of years

Oh there's been a few already.
Emergency budgets etc.
I'm still waiting for celebrities to up and move like they said they will (both sides of the pond).

[citizensm1th]

B'stard Child said:

citizensm1th said:

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

Indeed they will but I might have to wait a bit longer than a couple of years

I wont one of mine is unfolding as we type

[turbobloke]

shielsy said:

turbobloke said:

There are also many variables beyond brexit that have an impact on how well off 'we' are. Are you capable of separating these out? How?

No, I'm not capable of that. Not by any stretch.

Although I am capable of searching Google for "cost of Brexit so far" and reading what people who are qualified in this field have got to say about it.

Did they list all the factors they considered, quantified and with error bars? You were on the money when mentioning how complex the situation is, with so many variables, some depending on factors other than Brexit as well as on Brexit. They're guessing, basically, and more than likely in keeping with their own preferences. As they're 'experts' call it educated guesswork but it changes little.

Even way down the line well beyond the UK leaving the EU, the quantified position will be impossible to determine, particularly when people ask the inevitable question about whether we'd have been better off staying in the EU.

Quite apart from the point already made that to some (many?) Leave voters there are benefits that cannot be measured including in GBP, we cannot go back in time to change the vote to Remain in order to see how it pans out in order to make a proper comparison.

[don'tbesilly]

citizensm1th said:

B'stard Child said:

citizensm1th said:

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

Indeed they will but I might have to wait a bit longer than a couple of years

I wont one of mine is unfolding as we type

Has Brexit made apostrophes unaffordable?

[citizensm1th]

don'tbesilly said:

citizensm1th said:

B'stard Child said:

citizensm1th said:

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

Indeed they will but I might have to wait a bit longer than a couple of years

I wont one of mine is unfolding as we type

Has Brexit made apostrophes unaffordable?

i cant say i saw anyone forecasting that one

[B'stard Child]

citizensm1th said:

don'tbesilly said:

citizensm1th said:

B'stard Child said:

citizensm1th said:

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

Indeed they will but I might have to wait a bit longer than a couple of years

I wont one of mine is unfolding as we type

Has Brexit made apostrophes unaffordable?

i cant say i saw anyone forecasting that one

Caps Lock too expensive as well - fking Brexit..........

[citizensm1th]

B'stard Child said:

citizensm1th said:

don'tbesilly said:

citizensm1th said:

B'stard Child said:

citizensm1th said:

how ever the i told you so moments will be such fun

Indeed they will but I might have to wait a bit longer than a couple of years

I wont one of mine is unfolding as we type

Has Brexit made apostrophes unaffordable?

i cant say i saw anyone forecasting that one

Caps Lock too expensive as well - fking Brexit..........

times is ard in tooting fking tories

[B'stard Child]

Breadvan72 said:

I would be interested to hear from those who voted Leave whether you feel content with how the negotiations are going. Leave aside the merits of the arguments as to the substance of deals or no deals, who should do what, pay what, or what not.

Going as expected - both sides are miles apart and aren't moving closer very quickly - the EU aren't interested in making life easy for anyone to leave

Breadvan72 said:

Do you feel that this Government knows what it is doing?

Not really - hardly a well trod path and I don't have much faith in governments full stop

Breadvan72 said:

Are you comfortable with the fact that, past the half way point for the agreement of all Mr Davis' fab non EU trade deals, not a single one has even been started, let alone finished?

You mean the trade deal negotiations that the UK can't start till we've left.... Yeah I'd like all the details on those published.... not

Breadvan72 said:

Assume that you are still pro the idea of leaving, are any of you bothered by the state of things as they have in fact turned out?

Turning out better than expected aside from the risks of a fudge from TM

Breadvan72 said:

The few thoughtful and well informed Brexiteers that I know are candid in saying that they expect the economy to take a major hit after the leave date, but they say that they thought that was a price worth paying because they thought that we would get better Government.

No chance we will get a better government but we will have one that we can hold to account.

Breadvan72 said:

They now say that they think that is not happening, and seems very unlikely to happen, and wish that the vote had gone the other way.

And as an opposite some very opinionated people I know who were horrified by the referendum result are now saying to me they wish they'd voted leave

Funny old world

[mx5nut]

citizensm1th said:

this may or may not be a serious post as arguing on here about brexit is pointless and our brexiteer friends will never admit that its not quite going to go the way they would wish it on the road to the land of honey and milk.

You can tell when people start to regret their votes. They suddenly become "sick of talking about politics" or "don't even care anymore and just wish people would shut up about Brexit"

[Funkycoldribena]

mx5nut said:

You can tell when people start to regret their votes. They suddenly become "sick of talking about politics" or "don't even care anymore and just wish people would shut up about Brexit"

I don't know anyone who regrets voting leave.
Then again I only know one remainer.