The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
Eddie Strohacker said:
andymadmak said:
My old mum used to say "if you can't say anything positive, then don't say anything at all".
Did she now?andymadmak last week said:
The left..... beneath contempt
Shame you couldn't take her advice.andymadmak said:
In the main I do. Sometimes I lapse. What's your excuse?
I don't like blinkered ideologues intent on stiffing the country for reasons of sovereignty so amorphous & misrepresented whilst piling into an irreparable fifty year Tory party schism the collateral damage of which trashes the UK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society & I don't regard that as an excuse either.Breadvan72 said:
You are missing a point - ET legislation is scrutinised by the EU Parliament, and the member states, as pointed out before, all have democratically elected Governments, which send delegates to meetings. If your objection is to the location of the democratic action, because you wish the action to take place in Westminster and not in Brussels or Strasbourg, that is OK (although it tends to belie the argument that the principled and pro democratic Brexiteer is not in any way concerned about foreign-ness, leaving the foreigner-hating to all the silly hatey Brexiteers that you principled ones regrettably have to share a trench with). The problem that you face is that the post Brexit settlement is offering less democracy and not more.
Well, the problem I guess is that the democratically elected members they send are Ministers. You can't, on the one hand, argue Ministers taking decisions in London as democratically elected people under H VIII clauses is undemocratic and the same people doing so sitting in Brussels is democratic. As for the European Parliament yes, it does scrutinise, but it's role is more akin to the Lords than Commons and whilst (like the Lords) it has scrutinising and revising powers it's powers to outright reject are in practice quite limited.I'm not clear exactly what powers are being grabbed. If you are referring to the Repeal Bill it is a long way from passing in it's current form and doesn't have many powers in it anyway.
In practice, with the current arithmetic, Parliament (the UK one) has enormous power and influence over the Government at the moment.
Edited by confused_buyer on Friday 22 September 11:56
andymadmak said:
I voted exit after much careful consideration. I have not changed my mind. I honestly do not know any genuine Brexit voter who has changed their mind. I DO know a small number of Remain voters who have changed their mind and who would now vote Brexit.
Some of the reasons mentioned by these new converts include their utter disgust at the way the EU is going about the negotiations (100bn demands, arrogant dismissal of UK discussion papers, veiled threats etc) and the constant drip drip drip of thinly disguised bile towards Brexit voters on social media and in the mainstream media, particularly the BBC, Guardian and Independent.
Me too. I voted Leave but it was a very, very narrow decision. Even when the vote was called I was still minded towards Remain. I am pro-European. I've never been very anti-EU and in fact I strongly think there should be a Europe wide organisation which means the European countries can act and work together, particularly internationally. Some of the reasons mentioned by these new converts include their utter disgust at the way the EU is going about the negotiations (100bn demands, arrogant dismissal of UK discussion papers, veiled threats etc) and the constant drip drip drip of thinly disguised bile towards Brexit voters on social media and in the mainstream media, particularly the BBC, Guardian and Independent.
Edited by andymadmak on Friday 22 September 11:35
There are many things I will miss about the EU. I am sad to lose my European Citizenship. Nonetheless I voted Leave with a heavy heart as I came to the conclusion the EU is not the organisation it should be or one I could continue to support our membership of for all sorts of reasons. I have not changed my mind at all and do not regret my vote.
Eddie Strohacker said:
I don't like blinkered ideologues intent on stiffing the country for reasons of sovereignty so amorphous & misrepresented whilst piling into an irreparable fifty year Tory party schism the collateral damage of which trashes the UK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society & I don't regard that as an excuse either.
So, if I understand you correctly you believe that the UK exiting the EU trashes the UK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society, is that right? If so, then I think you are wrong. In fact i don't think the UK leaving the EU has any significant impact on theUK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society. Not wanting to be part of a particular trading bloc is not a reflection of our liberal values in any way.
I genuinely find your position bizarre in the extreme!
Dr Jekyll said:
pgh said:
Sway said:
The Customs Union is not the driver for Free Trade within the EU. They are separate things, although it is fair to say that the process smoothing the Customs Union creates can only be enabled when there is Free Trade...
As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Informative, pragmatic and good use of statistics to back up an argument. This sort of post makes it worth reading through all the stirring and mud slinging present here. Thanks Sway!As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Edited by pgh on Friday 22 September 11:06
The level of stupidity beggars belief at times. Just to pick one, "why have we not heard any details about progress on post-Brexit trade deals?" Where the hell do you start with that one, not to mention, do we actually want such details waved about at this stage of the negotiation theatre?
andymadmak said:
So, if I understand you correctly you believe that the UK exiting the EU trashes the UK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society, is that right?
If so, then I think you are wrong. In fact i don't think the UK leaving the EU has any significant impact on theUK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society. Not wanting to be part of a particular trading bloc is not a reflection of our liberal values in any way.
I genuinely find your position bizarre in the extreme!
Believing a remainer's outlook is 'Bizarre' is a handy illustration of how polarised the matter is. You're bizarre, no you are, no you are etc. etc.If so, then I think you are wrong. In fact i don't think the UK leaving the EU has any significant impact on theUK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society. Not wanting to be part of a particular trading bloc is not a reflection of our liberal values in any way.
I genuinely find your position bizarre in the extreme!
Interestingly you betray your view that I find so common amongst leavers when you talk about the EU as just some trading bloc as if that's all it is. It's so much more than that. It's a place where people move around & make lives. It's a bulwark against a truly grisly 20th century history, it's interdependence for the common good & if you can't see the problems with isolating the country from all of that, then I guess - apart from surmising you're not a French Nurse or a Spanish Teacher working here with kids, a home, roots then there's not much to be gained from arguing on. It's all just economics to you.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Believing a remainer's outlook is 'Bizarre' is a handy illustration of how polarised the matter is. You're bizarre, no you are, no you are etc. etc.
Interestingly you betray your view that I find so common amongst leavers when you talk about the EU as just some trading bloc as if that's all it is. It's so much more than that. It's a place where people move around & make lives. It's a bulwark against a truly grisly 20th century history, it's interdependence for the common good & if you can't see the problems with isolating the country from all of that, then I guess - apart from surmising you're not a French Nurse or a Spanish Teacher working here with kids, a home, roots then there's not much to be gained from arguing on. It's all just economics to you.
People currently move around outside the EU. Post Brexit people will still be able to 'move around inside and outside the EU' - did you not realise? Interestingly you betray your view that I find so common amongst leavers when you talk about the EU as just some trading bloc as if that's all it is. It's so much more than that. It's a place where people move around & make lives. It's a bulwark against a truly grisly 20th century history, it's interdependence for the common good & if you can't see the problems with isolating the country from all of that, then I guess - apart from surmising you're not a French Nurse or a Spanish Teacher working here with kids, a home, roots then there's not much to be gained from arguing on. It's all just economics to you.
PurpleMoonlight said:
JagLover said:
What is said and what is the negotiating position may be different things. If we do not reach a deal by March 2019 then we will indeed leave without one. All that is required by the government is inaction.
Our opening bid for a trade deal is reported as £20bn. Wonder where it will end up.Which would have been our net contribution in any case had we remained in the EU.
Helps to put some of the media hysteria over this number into perspective.
Eddie Strohacker said:
andymadmak said:
So, if I understand you correctly you believe that the UK exiting the EU trashes the UK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society, is that right?
If so, then I think you are wrong. In fact i don't think the UK leaving the EU has any significant impact on theUK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society. Not wanting to be part of a particular trading bloc is not a reflection of our liberal values in any way.
I genuinely find your position bizarre in the extreme!
Believing a remainer's outlook is 'Bizarre' is a handy illustration of how polarised the matter is. You're bizarre, no you are, no you are etc. etc.If so, then I think you are wrong. In fact i don't think the UK leaving the EU has any significant impact on theUK's global reputation as an inclusive forward looking progressive liberal society. Not wanting to be part of a particular trading bloc is not a reflection of our liberal values in any way.
I genuinely find your position bizarre in the extreme!
Interestingly you betray your view that I find so common amongst leavers when you talk about the EU as just some trading bloc as if that's all it is. It's so much more than that. It's a place where people move around & make lives. It's a bulwark against a truly grisly 20th century history, it's interdependence for the common good & if you can't see the problems with isolating the country from all of that, then I guess - apart from surmising you're not a French Nurse or a Spanish Teacher working here with kids, a home, roots then there's not much to be gained from arguing on. It's all just economics to you.
They move around EUROPE!
Totally different to the EU.
FiF said:
Dr Jekyll said:
pgh said:
Sway said:
The Customs Union is not the driver for Free Trade within the EU. They are separate things, although it is fair to say that the process smoothing the Customs Union creates can only be enabled when there is Free Trade...
As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Informative, pragmatic and good use of statistics to back up an argument. This sort of post makes it worth reading through all the stirring and mud slinging present here. Thanks Sway!As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Edited by pgh on Friday 22 September 11:06
The level of stupidity beggars belief at times. Just to pick one, "why have we not heard any details about progress on post-Brexit trade deals?" Where the hell do you start with that one, not to mention, do we actually want such details waved about at this stage of the negotiation theatre?
And why does every negotiation go way beyond and into a crisis meeting?
To fill the bureaucrats back pockets more.
And more.
And more ditto.
The sooner we leave the greed the better.
Eddie Strohacker said:
I don't think that, you know I don't think that & in passing, why not give the 'you don't understand' schtick a rest?
I can only go by what you post! Perhaps you need to be clearer and demonstrate that you actually do understand!Eddie Strohacker said:
It's tedious in the extreme since you do it to every poster here.
I find you extremely tedious, as do others, are you going to change your approach?Edited by sidicks on Friday 22 September 12:54
dandarez said:
FiF said:
Dr Jekyll said:
pgh said:
Sway said:
The Customs Union is not the driver for Free Trade within the EU. They are separate things, although it is fair to say that the process smoothing the Customs Union creates can only be enabled when there is Free Trade...
As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Informative, pragmatic and good use of statistics to back up an argument. This sort of post makes it worth reading through all the stirring and mud slinging present here. Thanks Sway!As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Edited by pgh on Friday 22 September 11:06
The level of stupidity beggars belief at times. Just to pick one, "why have we not heard any details about progress on post-Brexit trade deals?" Where the hell do you start with that one, not to mention, do we actually want such details waved about at this stage of the negotiation theatre?
And why does every negotiation go way beyond and into a crisis meeting?
To fill the bureaucrats back pockets more.
And more.
And more ditto.
The sooner we leave the greed the better.
sidicks said:
I find you extremely tedious, as do others, are you going to change your approach?
You & others are free to ignore me. You choose not to, preferring usually to denigrate people personally or repeatedly insinuate they're less intelligent than you. Edited by sidicks on Friday 22 September 12:54
I find that tedious as do others...
Edited by Eddie Strohacker on Friday 22 September 13:02
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