The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[London424]

PurpleMoonlight said:

She wants a unique UK trade deal, cos we are special, like.

5th largest economy in the world...I'd say so, yes.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Tuna said:

This is a historic change between some of the largest trading nations in the world, and you expect her to say what, exactly?

"Please punish us because PurpleMoonlight thinks we're not good enough"?

Do you not think that a trade deal specific to our circumstances would be of huge benefit to both sides?

We are leaving, we don't want to be member of their club any more, but we now what them to join a new club with just them and us. We will provide the cake.

[PurpleMoonlight]

The EU has several tiers of integration and May has just rubbished all of them as not acceptable to us. We want our own integration.

[Tuna]

PurpleMoonlight said:

We are leaving, we don't want to be member of their club any more, but we now what them to join a new club with just them and us. We will provide the cake.

It's a trade agreement. No club membership (the cake is a lie), just an agreement of how we'll do trade. That doesn't cost anything (or at least anything worth bothering in the context of the billions of pounds worth of trade).

Just to be clear, being nice to each other isn't a cost. Enabling trade is always going to be a benefit - and the more trade the better.

[Dr Jekyll]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Tuna said:

This is a historic change between some of the largest trading nations in the world, and you expect her to say what, exactly?

"Please punish us because PurpleMoonlight thinks we're not good enough"?

Do you not think that a trade deal specific to our circumstances would be of huge benefit to both sides?

We are leaving, we don't want to be member of their club any more, but we now what them to join a new club with just them and us. We will provide the cake.

We are already trading freely.
Free trade works to the benefit of all concerned.
So rather than go to the trouble of inventing barriers it seems more sensible to carry on trading freely.

[turbobloke]

PurpleMoonlight said:

The EU has several tiers of integration and May has just rubbished all of them as not acceptable to us.

The entire EU is being left. Being in the EU is no longer acceptable to sufficient people that we're leaving. In your way of thinking the EU has been rubbished.

[PurpleMoonlight]

turbobloke said:

The entire EU is being left. Being in the EU is no longer acceptable to sufficient people that we're leaving. In your way of thinking the EU has been rubbished.

Didn't the vote do that?

[Funkycoldribena]

PurpleMoonlight said:

We are leaving, we don't want to be member of their club any more, but we now what them to join a new club with just them and us. We will provide the cake.

I'm sorry to bring this up again but you didn't vote in the referendum,so the only one who wants cake is you.

[turbobloke]

PurpleMoonlight said:

turbobloke said:

The entire EU is being left. Being in the EU is no longer acceptable to sufficient people that we're leaving. In your way of thinking the EU has been rubbished.

Didn't the vote do that?

Exactly.

[anonymous-user]

PurpleMoonlight said:

jsf said:

Of course.

Based on everything I read, listen to, I expect the drive is towards a relaxing of UK tariff rates.

Based on everything I read, listen to, all the major trading nations want to talk about improving trading relationships.

Do you see things differently?

I have little faith in the Government effecting anything promptly or cost effectively.

Talk is easy, actions no so.

But you don't rule out what I said?

[PurpleMoonlight]

turbobloke said:

Exactly.

And yet May wants a special arrangement with them, that nobody in the world currently has.

I think we should just have gone for a FTA from day one, with the offer to consider a more comprehensive arrangement if that is what the EU wanted.

May's begging just shows her desperation.

[PurpleMoonlight]

jsf said:

But you don't rule out what I said?

Nothing is impossible but I don't see a comprehensively free trade world in my lifetime.

[anonymous-user]

PurpleMoonlight said:

jsf said:

But you don't rule out what I said?

Nothing is impossible but I don't see a comprehensively free trade world in my lifetime.

We are almost there already, where have you been for the last 20 years?

[PurpleMoonlight]

jsf said:

We are almost there already, where have you been for the last 20 years?

Shackled by the EU.

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

jsf said:

We are almost there already, where have you been for the last 20 years?

Shackled by the EU.

[anonymous-user]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Shackled by the EU.

You said world, I responded to the world position.

[Mrr T]

Firstly, Sway may I thank you for your replies on the other thread. I apologise other commitments meant I could not respond.

I hope you do not mind if I ask more questions on the IP process.

1. I questioned whether the process would quick enough to deal with movements by lorry which might only take a few hours to reach the tunnel. In your previous post you said using the process to facilitate lorry movement was not a problem because the movements where scheduled far in advance. Now I am sure there are plans for lorry movements but I am sure these get changed. So I still struggle to accept that the system designed to handle goods moving by a small number of ships will handle good moving by very large number of lorries.
2. I asked about system capacity and you only confirmed their where no system capacity issues for the users of the system. This I accept. However, my question was about the capacity of the HMRC systems to handle a many fold increase in volume.
3. you also stated all lorries crossing the channel are checked by HMRC. I expect they monitor a small number for duty paid goods but all? Immigration is a Border Force matter. As far as I am aware very few lorries are inspected. Introducing a system where a significant number of lorries have to be stopped and inspected and the data compared to a system will take time. Since this will be happening both sides of the channel I have to feel we are going to get delays.

Sway said:

As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.

Reading the HMRC web site it seems to apply to all goods whether finished or not. Also only a limited number of goods are covered by IP most goods are for import.

Sway said:

Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.

This is something I do know about. I also assume you mean wholesale rather than retail? So please tell me why the UK is so important because I do not know. The issuance market is not driven by the bankers in the middle, that a very competitive market. The drivers for the market are the issuers and the buyers of the issuance. If they are based in the EU (and about 70% of the market are) and the UK losses passporting the people selling to the main drivers of the market will also have to be based in the EU and not in the UK.

[Coolbanana]

Tuna said:

It's a trade agreement. No club membership (the cake is a lie), just an agreement of how we'll do trade. That doesn't cost anything (or at least anything worth bothering in the context of the billions of pounds worth of trade).

Just to be clear, being nice to each other isn't a cost. Enabling trade is always going to be a benefit - and the more trade the better.

So sod the 4 Freedoms, the Foundations of the EU and give the UK a special deal on Trade only - something no other country in Europe has?

Is it arrogance that makes some Brexiters think the UK deserves special treatment over all other Nations?

The EU should tell the UK to either accept a deal similar to Norway (daft, why not just be a full Member and have some influence) or leg it and go WTO. All this 'look at us, we are so special and better than the others' is nauseating. Have some pride. Own your decision to leave, have confidence in your convictions and leave 100%. Off you toddle.

None of this halfway house rubbish!

Seriously though, you are either in the EU and agree to the 4 Freedoms or you are out and on your own little feet. Transition deals, preferential deals...all a bit desperate and smacks of "Oh, no! We stuffed it! We're afraid actually. How do we rescue this and still deliver something to the Electorate?"

The Majority voted Leave. So Leave.

Then we can sit back and watch, with interest, see just how well the UK does fare all by itself. Oh, and no Passporting; that's preferential treatment so shouldn't be allowed.

None of the above is a punishment, it is what you voted for, to Leave. There were no caveats about preferential deals or halfway houses on the Ballot.

You can then trade via WTO in the same way as, saaaay, Angola does with the EU.

[AC43]

Coolbanana said:

Seriously though, you are either in the EU and agree to the 4 Freedoms or you are out and on your own little feet.

The Majority voted Leave. So Leave.

Then we can sit back and watch, with interest, see just how well the UK does fare all by itself. Oh, and no Passporting; that's preferential treatment so shouldn't be allowed.

None of the above is a punishment, it is what you voted for, to Leave. There were no caveats about preferential deals or halfway houses on the Ballot.

You can then trade via WTO in the same way as, saaaay, Angola does with the EU.

Just about sums it up.

[anonymous-user]

Coolbanana said:

Is it arrogance that makes some Brexiters think the UK deserves special treatment over all other Nations?

The UK is more important commercially, legally and politically than most other countries to the world as a whole. That distinction is real, its not some utopian made up concept, its a reality.

Why do you think that isn't the case?