The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
///ajd said:
Rather surprised May is offering £20Bn extra to the EU to carry on as we are for a bit.
She's trying to keep you happy - I think she's a bloody loon///ajd said:
Also, how can someone have researched their leave vote in detail but then claim to be unaware of the £350m bus only a few sentences later?
I don't know anyone who took the bus seriously.... seriously..... But then I am just a thick racist xenophobe who hates brown people - apparently
FiF said:
Dr Jekyll said:
pgh said:
Sway said:
The Customs Union is not the driver for Free Trade within the EU. They are separate things, although it is fair to say that the process smoothing the Customs Union creates can only be enabled when there is Free Trade...
As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Informative, pragmatic and good use of statistics to back up an argument. This sort of post makes it worth reading through all the stirring and mud slinging present here. Thanks Sway!As I've posted repeatedly on here and on other threads, having a tariff border with the EU is not the massive problem it's presented as. Firstly, it only effects finished goods. Components being shipped through global supply chains are eligible for Inwards Processing Relief, and do not have any tariffs.
Considering that the bulk of our exports are to countries not in the EU, at worst we stay exactly the same as today with those nations. If the EU does not wish free trade with the UK post Brexit, then our goods to the EU are likely to cost on average under 10% more than today - which is less than normal fx fluctuations.
The converse is however very valid. The EU requires massive tariffs on goods from the RoW that increase our costs of living significantly. Yes, it'd be a ballache for a VW Golf to be 10% more expensive, however this is less than the ballache today of food that is over 20% more expensive than it should be based upon global market prices. That hits everyone, every single day - and adds up to a far greater cost than the extra couple of grand on the aforementioned Golf (for which there are UK produced competitors that are likelt to benefit).
Every single nation that has unilaterally dropped inward tariff barriers has seen benefits for their economy... I do acknowledge that this is perhaps unlikely to be a proposal from the Government, however I can lobby for it to become the case (which I cannot do today).
The UK has far more levers to pull than you suggest. The Belgian trade minister is worried about the current EU position - over 50% of the exports from Zebrugge are destined for one of the top three consumer nations in the world, us. Further, over 80% of retail lending within Germany is facilitated via London. That will not change, for so many reasons it's boring to type them out.
They also have a very worrying situation developing regarding the national bank reconciliation process within the Eurozone (or rather, the lack of reconciliation). Once the German electorate, who have made their feelings very clear previously, realise that they have extended over a trillion euros of unbacked lending, with no requirement for repayment at any point, nor any form of interest, the excrement will hit the rotating air movement device...
On the negotiations, is there a single example of EU negotiations every proceeding differently? For the last 30 years, every single internal or external negotiation they have entered has required a 'crisis meeting' through the night the day prior to the deadline, with what could have been forecasted as the broadly pragmatic agreement being signed at the eleventh hour...
Edited by pgh on Friday 22 September 11:06
The level of stupidity beggars belief at times. Just to pick one, "why have we not heard any details about progress on post-Brexit trade deals?" Where the hell do you start with that one, not to mention, do we actually want such details waved about at this stage of the negotiation theatre?
Thanks for making the effort
andymadmak said:
Breadvan72 said:
zygalski said:
I sense a huge amount of deflection from the Brexit boys in the next few months, along the lines of 'Brexit could've been a success if not for... *insert one of a dozen or more reasons*
It is the hoary old "stab in the back" argument, used by rightists since forever. If only we had not been betrayed by trahison des clercs and so on, say the faux-populist rightists. If only everyone else (ie the 62% who did not vote to leave) had got behind this project, all would have been fab! Get your excuses in early.You and others have made a few posts on recent pages suggesting that Brexit voters have either changed their minds or have regrets/shame.
My own experiences are very different to your assumptions.
I voted exit after much careful consideration. I have not changed my mind. I honestly do not know any genuine Brexit voter who has changed their mind. I DO know a small number of Remain voters who have changed their mind and who would now vote Brexit.
Some of the reasons mentioned by these new converts include their utter disgust at the way the EU is going about the negotiations (100bn demands, arrogant dismissal of UK discussion papers, veiled threats etc) and the constant drip drip drip of thinly disguised bile towards Brexit voters on social media and in the mainstream media, particularly the BBC, Guardian and Independent.
I rarely post on Brexit threads now because, frankly I am tired of the arguments and the snide personal attacks from the usual protagonists.
I am not a racist, I am not thick, I am not a pensioner, I am not xenophobic, I don't "hate" european people, I am not "afraid" of immigrants, I did not believe the 350m NHS bus thing (I actually was not even aware of it) , I was not conned - but I recognise that both sides were not 100% square with the truth. I made my choice for valid reasons that I believe still hold true today.
I am tired of the likes of slasher, strohacker et al who, even when presented with salient information will nevertheless, at the next turn (or next thread) go back to promoting the same old nonsense that they always do. And it's all done with that faux wide eyed innocence that is guaranteed to make my teeth itch. So I ask myself, "why bother with these guys?" It's not as if anything that I (and others) may have to say would in any way change their opinions. They are entrenched in their belief that brexit voters are largely ignorant racists and that Brexit must surely be an utter disaster - they are the people who believe that the certain smile on the face of the NISSAN CEO is all the proof needed to support their assertions....
I am most certainly not ashamed of my vote, nor am I looking to blame anyone else for what comes next in the history of our country.
It's been said that posting on a forum cannot and will not influence the outcome of the negotiations. That might be true, but the constant deliberate misinterpretation and misrepresentation of events is unhelpful to achieving the kind of national consensous that would be ideal if we are to get the best deal and make the best of the future. Division is not helpful. Those that seek to ferment that division (presumably in the hope that they can squeak "I told you so" at some point down the line) are equally unhelpful.
I am genuinely disappointed that Mr Corbyn and his team have decided to put party advantage ahead of positive engagement in this vital process. I wished and still do wish that the best minds of all political shades would engage themselves in working out the best exit deal for and on behalf of the country, regardless of how they had voted in June 2016.
My old mum used to say "if you can't say anything positive, then don't say anything at all". She also used to say that "it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and prove it!"
Both are sayings that some on the Remain side would be well advised to heed.
Debate and engagement are fine. Disagreement is good and healthy. But cynicism, sneering, double speak and efforts to wreck just so that one can say I told you so (even if those efforts are ineffectual in the great scheme of things) should have no part in any sensible Brexit discussion.
Edited by andymadmak on Friday 22 September 11:35
B'stard Child said:
andymadmak said:
Breadvan72 said:
zygalski said:
I sense a huge amount of deflection from the Brexit boys in the next few months, along the lines of 'Brexit could've been a success if not for... *insert one of a dozen or more reasons*
It is the hoary old "stab in the back" argument, used by rightists since forever. If only we had not been betrayed by trahison des clercs and so on, say the faux-populist rightists. If only everyone else (ie the 62% who did not vote to leave) had got behind this project, all would have been fab! Get your excuses in early.You and others have made a few posts on recent pages suggesting that Brexit voters have either changed their minds or have regrets/shame.
My own experiences are very different to your assumptions.
I voted exit after much careful consideration. I have not changed my mind. I honestly do not know any genuine Brexit voter who has changed their mind. I DO know a small number of Remain voters who have changed their mind and who would now vote Brexit.
Some of the reasons mentioned by these new converts include their utter disgust at the way the EU is going about the negotiations (100bn demands, arrogant dismissal of UK discussion papers, veiled threats etc) and the constant drip drip drip of thinly disguised bile towards Brexit voters on social media and in the mainstream media, particularly the BBC, Guardian and Independent.
I rarely post on Brexit threads now because, frankly I am tired of the arguments and the snide personal attacks from the usual protagonists.
I am not a racist, I am not thick, I am not a pensioner, I am not xenophobic, I don't "hate" european people, I am not "afraid" of immigrants, I did not believe the 350m NHS bus thing (I actually was not even aware of it) , I was not conned - but I recognise that both sides were not 100% square with the truth. I made my choice for valid reasons that I believe still hold true today.
I am tired of the likes of slasher, strohacker et al who, even when presented with salient information will nevertheless, at the next turn (or next thread) go back to promoting the same old nonsense that they always do. And it's all done with that faux wide eyed innocence that is guaranteed to make my teeth itch. So I ask myself, "why bother with these guys?" It's not as if anything that I (and others) may have to say would in any way change their opinions. They are entrenched in their belief that brexit voters are largely ignorant racists and that Brexit must surely be an utter disaster - they are the people who believe that the certain smile on the face of the NISSAN CEO is all the proof needed to support their assertions....
I am most certainly not ashamed of my vote, nor am I looking to blame anyone else for what comes next in the history of our country.
It's been said that posting on a forum cannot and will not influence the outcome of the negotiations. That might be true, but the constant deliberate misinterpretation and misrepresentation of events is unhelpful to achieving the kind of national consensous that would be ideal if we are to get the best deal and make the best of the future. Division is not helpful. Those that seek to ferment that division (presumably in the hope that they can squeak "I told you so" at some point down the line) are equally unhelpful.
I am genuinely disappointed that Mr Corbyn and his team have decided to put party advantage ahead of positive engagement in this vital process. I wished and still do wish that the best minds of all political shades would engage themselves in working out the best exit deal for and on behalf of the country, regardless of how they had voted in June 2016.
My old mum used to say "if you can't say anything positive, then don't say anything at all". She also used to say that "it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and prove it!"
Both are sayings that some on the Remain side would be well advised to heed.
Debate and engagement are fine. Disagreement is good and healthy. But cynicism, sneering, double speak and efforts to wreck just so that one can say I told you so (even if those efforts are ineffectual in the great scheme of things) should have no part in any sensible Brexit discussion.
Edited by andymadmak on Friday 22 September 11:35
///ajd said:
Moody's downgrades UK to AA2, now two steps below the highest rating.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-moody...
Remember when we used to be AAA? Back in (early) June 2016, Standard & Poor's.
--
Rather surprised May is offering £20Bn extra to the EU to carry on as we are for a bit.
An offer worthy of another red bus : VOTE LEAVE - Let's send £734m/week to the EU and take money from the NHS.
--
Also, how can someone have researched their leave vote in detail but then claim to be unaware of the £350m bus only a few sentences later?
Oh look it's ///ajd, JIT https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-moody...
Remember when we used to be AAA? Back in (early) June 2016, Standard & Poor's.
--
Rather surprised May is offering £20Bn extra to the EU to carry on as we are for a bit.
An offer worthy of another red bus : VOTE LEAVE - Let's send £734m/week to the EU and take money from the NHS.
--
Also, how can someone have researched their leave vote in detail but then claim to be unaware of the £350m bus only a few sentences later?
As I recall, it was only a few weeks to go and Breadvan was still undecided on how to vote. From memory, the main reason given was the EU being undemocratic.
I imagine it was one of ///ajd's posts here where he 'debunked' ( his actual wording ) that line of argument for BV and showed the error of his ways that there was no actual valid reason anyone could vote for Brexit.
I imagine it was one of ///ajd's posts here where he 'debunked' ( his actual wording ) that line of argument for BV and showed the error of his ways that there was no actual valid reason anyone could vote for Brexit.
Deptford Draylons said:
I imagine it was one of ///ajd's posts here where he 'debunked' ( his actual wording ) that line of argument for BV and showed the error of his ways that there was no actual valid reason anyone could vote for Brexit.
Yep every single one of my 273 reasons to leave have been comprehensively debunked by slasher* see noteActually just one........ 273 Eurovision but that was my room 101 and if you can't get that level of humor then I give up
ash73 said:
Just catching up on May's speech and expected to see a meltdown on here.
Offering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
Absolutely correctOffering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
ash73 said:
Just catching up on May's speech and expected to see a meltdown on here.
Offering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
Nail on head. If the government had the balls to stop wasting time on this pointless charade, revoke article 50 and start focusing on issues which actually matter, this country might start moving back in the right direction. Won't hold my breath. 4 wasted years to come. Offering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
ash73 said:
Just catching up on May's speech and expected to see a meltdown on here.
Offering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
That's not the way the conservatives or labour see it. For the first time in a while the cabinet are singing from the same sheet, even Labour cant complain as its what they wanted.Offering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
You aren't seeing a meltdown because its what's we have all been talking about for ages on here, its the pragmatic option that most have been expecting to come out of this. End of EU membership in 2019, 2 year time limited transition deal to prepare for the new arrangements outside the CU and SM. New FTA and security treaties, end of ECJ supremacy, no ECJ oversight of any new FTA but an independent arbitrator. Even John Redwood is happy, so she has brought along a major faction of the "hard brexiteers" whilst giving the "soft brexiteers" a bone.
With regards to the moodys downgrade, it sure sucks to have the same rating as France, but I guess that's what happens when you agree to give some of the public sector a pay rise and change your countries future direction.
///ajd said:
Moody's downgrades UK to AA2, now two steps below the highest rating.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-moody...
Remember when we used to be AAA? Back in (early) June 2016, Standard & Poor's.
--
Rather surprised May is offering £20Bn extra to the EU to carry on as we are for a bit.
An offer worthy of another red bus : VOTE LEAVE - Let's send £734m/week to the EU and take money from the NHS.
--
Also, how can someone have researched their leave vote in detail but then claim to be unaware of the £350m bus only a few sentences later?
Pages of discussion on Florence and that's the best you can up with.https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-moody...
Remember when we used to be AAA? Back in (early) June 2016, Standard & Poor's.
--
Rather surprised May is offering £20Bn extra to the EU to carry on as we are for a bit.
An offer worthy of another red bus : VOTE LEAVE - Let's send £734m/week to the EU and take money from the NHS.
--
Also, how can someone have researched their leave vote in detail but then claim to be unaware of the £350m bus only a few sentences later?
The bus obsession is preventing you from moving on. We're now discussing transition arrangements. Feel free to carry on about the bus but that really is last years news.
Re Moody's. Fair enough; we'll see if actuals reflect their reality. The detail on Bloomberg aims heavy on political uncertainty yet throughout the last 18 month of uncertainty the U.K. Growth rate has held up reasonably. They are assuming a fiscal splurge undermining the overall debt position. That may happen but it's got bugger all to do with Europe.
ash73 said:
Just catching up on May's speech and expected to see a meltdown on here.
Offering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
I don't see anything in A50 that requires us to contribute to the EU budget after we leave.Offering to continue paying our membership fee for another two years as a "transition" is just a smokescreen; the reality is we can't extract ourselves from the existing EU budget... so we might as well continue being members.
The output of the next phase will be a "unique" arrangement to pay the same to get the same; single market, four freedoms, immigrants just have to fill in a form (optional) to appease UKIP voters ooop North.
We're never going to leave, except as a technicality, what a complete waste of time.
I don't see us not leaving.
I don't see us getting a unique arrangement.
May admitted in the speech that the UK won't be ready to implement boarder and customs controls with the EU by 2019. That is the real reason for the transitional arrangement and the £20bn. A typical Government f
k up.FiF said:
+2, you have more patience than me Sway.
The level of stupidity beggars belief at times. Just to pick one, "why have we not heard any details about progress on post-Brexit trade deals?" Where the hell do you start with that one, not to mention, do we actually want such details waved about at this stage of the negotiation theatre?
If concerned about that level of stupidity, your beef is with David Davis, who confidently predicted that the UK would secure non EU trade deals within two years. He made that prediction in February 2016.The level of stupidity beggars belief at times. Just to pick one, "why have we not heard any details about progress on post-Brexit trade deals?" Where the hell do you start with that one, not to mention, do we actually want such details waved about at this stage of the negotiation theatre?
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 23 September 05:57
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