The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
jjlynn27 said:
Jockman said:
I'm noticing this thread starting to conflate Trumpism with Brexit.
Interesting angle.
all trump fans on this forum happen to be brexiters. Probably coincidence. Interesting angle.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=...
Garvin said:
Nice try and there you see the remainer problem writ large. You seem to infer that all is rosey with the EU accounts - this is clearly not the case as you well know. Publishing inaccurate and/or misleading information does not count as publishing the proper accounts. Since 2007 it appears that the accounts have been given a 'fair and accurate' rating by the auditors . . . . . but, what's this, they all appear to have 'material error' in the payments. Let's go back pre 2007 where the auditors did not consider them 'fair and accurate' and 'material errors' consistently appear in the payments, errors that cause the auditors to have raised an 'adverse opinion' as their 'qualifications'!
One can publish any old tosh, that doesn't make it acceptable.
So many remainers blindly accept that the EU can do no wrong and are willing to overlook the significant failings of the regime as if they are just trivial matters. Debate is impossible wih people of such blind faith.
So "doesn't dare to publish its accounts" really means "does indeed publish its accounts but I think they may be dodgy". Thanks for clearing that one up! Call a Brexiteer out on a lie and he/she will immediately carry the goalposts to the next available continent. One can publish any old tosh, that doesn't make it acceptable.
So many remainers blindly accept that the EU can do no wrong and are willing to overlook the significant failings of the regime as if they are just trivial matters. Debate is impossible wih people of such blind faith.
I know of no one who thinks the EU to be perfect, and most who support staying in it also support reform, and criticise its many flaws. This is called realism. What remain supporters tend not to do is believe in the magical land of Brit-Narnia where all will be wonderful once the evil yoke of the EU is removed, and where all the benefits of EU membership can be enjoyed with none of the burdens. It's laughable, loony stuff, but it was enough to convince 37% of the electorate, and, as we now know, 37 % is an unquestionable democratic mandate.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Garvin said:
Nice try and there you see the remainer problem writ large. You seem to infer that all is rosey with the EU accounts.
He doesn't infer that at all. You infer that he infers that which means I infer you're someone willing to be wilfully obtuse/disingenuous/blind whatever you want to call the thing that goes on in here all day every day. Whaddya think you're so special? 
Breadvan72 said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
...Said it before, not all Brexiteers are racists - far from it, but I'd bet all racists are Brexiteers.
.
I agree..
Who's the more racist? The one who prefers a political system that puts Western Europeans on a pedestal or the one who would put everyone on the same?
Regardless, the term race is moronic, there are no races of human. Just ignorance about biology. There are different cultures however and preference to certain cultures is entirely logical and the only way to have a progressive whole.
Breadvan72 said:
I know of no one who thinks the EU to be perfect, and most who support staying in it also support reform, and criticise its many flaws. This is called realism. What remain supporters tend not to do is believe in the magical land of Brit-Narnia where all will be wonderful once the evil yoke of the EU is removed, and where all the benefits of EU membership can be enjoyed with none of the burdens. It's laughable, loony stuff, but it was enough to convince 37% of the electorate, and, as we now know, 37 % is an unquestionable democratic mandate.
Yet very few can call out a realistic approach to achieving that reform, or indeed what it should look like.Meanwhile, someone posts a rational and detailed analysis that shows 'Brit-narnia' isn't actually fiction, nor does it rely on some form of crumb tossing by the EU - yet you completely ignore that and only focus on the posts that reinforce your view of 'hard Brexiteers'...
Disappointing BV, you've generally been better than that.
Breadvan72 said:
There you see the Brexit problem writ large. Some (many?) Brexiteers believe in nonsense. The accounts are published. Also, they are signed off by auditors. The auditors enter some qualifications. Do some basic fact checking, eh? Some (many?) Brexiteers trot out the same nonsense again and again. Debunk it again and again and they still cling on to the fictions. Debate is impossible when people believe in made up hoo hah and cannot be bothered to do even the most basic research.
David Cameron appeared to be very plausible but actually he was full of hot airBreadvan72 said:
FiF said:
There was no rant about it. You once again, like so many of your fellow travellers just continue along the line of suggesting that someone is saying something that clearly they have not said, indeed in this case said something quite different. Not worth carrying on communications, frankly.
Cue, but I'm hearing things in the Temple, don't-cha-know. Ignored.
Bog-standard NPE rightist: Posts nonsense, gets challenged on nonsense. Claims butthurt and adds another evil leftist conspirator to the ignore list. Debate? Er, what's that?Cue, but I'm hearing things in the Temple, don't-cha-know. Ignored.
It is interesting to look back on all the promises and how they are all disintegrating. No one seems to mind, that's OK, this is what I expected. Etc.
Davis has been shown to be completely wrong in his promises. The hope seems to be that now it will be OK at the last minute. Then what when that crumbles? Don't worry it will be fine after we have left with no deal.....
///ajd said:
I think the problem was you proved he was wrong about Davis and the trade deal promises. Notice how the bile turns on the remainers for pointing this out? Always someone elses fault.
It is interesting to look back on all the promises and how they are all disintegrating. No one seems to mind, that's OK, this is what I expected. Etc.
Davis has been shown to be completely wrong in his promises. The hope seems to be that now it will be OK at the last minute. Then what when that crumbles? Don't worry it will be fine after we have left with no deal.....
"WE have left"!It is interesting to look back on all the promises and how they are all disintegrating. No one seems to mind, that's OK, this is what I expected. Etc.
Davis has been shown to be completely wrong in his promises. The hope seems to be that now it will be OK at the last minute. Then what when that crumbles? Don't worry it will be fine after we have left with no deal.....
You don't even live here!
///ajd said:
Breadvan72 said:
FiF said:
There was no rant about it. You once again, like so many of your fellow travellers just continue along the line of suggesting that someone is saying something that clearly they have not said, indeed in this case said something quite different. Not worth carrying on communications, frankly.
Cue, but I'm hearing things in the Temple, don't-cha-know. Ignored.
Bog-standard NPE rightist: Posts nonsense, gets challenged on nonsense. Claims butthurt and adds another evil leftist conspirator to the ignore list. Debate? Er, what's that?Cue, but I'm hearing things in the Temple, don't-cha-know. Ignored.
It is interesting to look back on all the promises and how they are all disintegrating. No one seems to mind, that's OK, this is what I expected. Etc.
Davis has been shown to be completely wrong in his promises. The hope seems to be that now it will be OK at the last minute. Then what when that crumbles? Don't worry it will be fine after we have left with no deal.....
Post Brexit he is given a very tough job and in some quarters lauded as the man who will Get Things Done.
Yet the public persona of the avuncular buffoon has proved to the true measure of the individual. So much so that the PM has had to ask the EU publicly for a two year extension for Davis to do his job. If the EU declines this request, where do we go then? Davis certainly isn't the man to rescue the situation.
Breadvan72 said:
Bog-standard NPE rightist: Posts nonsense, gets challenged on nonsense. Claims butthurt and adds another evil leftist conspirator to the ignore list. Debate? Er, what's that?
It's you that is spouting nonsense old fruit. What was the context of Davis's comment where you wrote 2 years and the date of him making that statement. Despite that date being before even the referendum not even 2 years have passed since then. If he referenced two years from article 50 trigger, then we are only just 6 months past that date. If he meant two years after exit, well we aren't even there yet.You completely fail to counter the point that it is stupid for people to complain that there is nothing available in public domain setting out agreements, putative agreements, or even progress towards trade agreements, when to do such would be waving a red rag to a bull.
Instead, petty personal supercilious comments ensue. THAT is why you are not worth further engagement. I can't imagine why you seem to be concerned about butt hurt, my butt is really in rather fine order, thanks.
Breadvan72 said:
Who are these unicorns? They have become a trope, but do they really exist in any significant numbers? Are they any less a stereotype than angry Huddersfield bloke in a flat roofed pub?
Breadvan, I am going to have a waffle.London is absolutely stuffed full of metro-elites. I think the problem is that 'angry in Huddersfield' does not have any power to influence things other than to use their political vote when asked to by central and local government. This is partly due to the diminished role unions are playing in representing this part of the country than they would have played if this was 1977. These people lacked a voice until UKIP came along.
The metropolitan elite are a group of people who hold greater influence due to their business and/or political connections which are more closely wired to the decision makers in central London. Because of this it is more likely that decisions will be made that benefit them than 'angry in huddersfield'.
I include Senior Ministers, CEO's, Judges, Lawyers, Fund managers in this definition. Where are they mostly? they are in London.
Steve Bannon actually widens the net slightly in his definition of this enemy to include over-paid metrosexual men that frequent large cities simply because they are the living embodiment of a financial system that has benefitted them at the expense of many, many more 'angry in huddersfield'.
Sorry to single out one group in particular but your usual European hedge/fund/M&A manager in his £450 shirt who does not leave London Zone 2 but has a British passport and UK voting rights as they have £1m+ in the bank is exactly the type of problem customer that the London system panders to, the system is too skewed in their favour and has been for too long. These people would not even be able to place Huddersfield on a map, lest visit it and yet, their voice is much louder.
This group does not deserve to be insulted, I would sooner play the ball than the man however, the term 'metropolitan elite' is valid because unless you can admit there is a problem you can't discuss the solutions to address them.
Greg66 said:
If the EU declines this request, where do we go then?
It's the EU that has been pushing for a transition period to get them through the current budget to conclusion. That removes one of the major problems for the EU27 governments because they no longer now face a shortfall in funding, so they don't have to go to their populations and explain why they have had to pay more themselves.What May has committed to is paying the costs of full membership through the two year period that ends the transition agreement period, this coincides with the EU budget period so you get a politically acceptable situation for both parties.
The new EU budget can then be set knowing what needs funding and who is going to be paying what for what project.
What we also appear to be heading towards is the UK continuing to fund our fair share of the costs of the programs we wish to participate in, for example the university and science partnerships. This has to be good news for people like ///ajd as it looks like his Erasmus babies will continue to be born.
You are also going to see an act of parliament that specifically enshrines in law the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK at the moment we leave the EU, so they will have a concrete legal position which can be used in court.
May is also offering that the ECJ rulings will be taken into account with regards to EU citizens rights, so the ECJ has a role in interpreting laws, but the UK court will have the final say on what weight they put on the ECJ compared to the UK act of parliament. That allows both sides to move on with workable practices.
May has also confirmed we will leave the SM and CU, so we will be able to arrange our own trade deals and set our own tariffs, staying in the SM and CU during the transition period means business will have certainty of how they trade during this period and don't have to implement temporary practices for two years. It means they only have to make one change and they will have a timeframe to work with that is manageable for any viable business.
I cant see how any remainer should have a problem with this, their concerns have been taken into account as much as is practically possible taking into account the vote result was to leave the EU.
If the EU reject this offer out of hand, then we are going to leave with no deal, because if this offer isn't enough of a reflection of a manageable deal we can build on, nothing will be. Of course the negotiations are going to continue to firm up the details and there will be disagreements, but if the tone of the EU doesn't alter and they don't move on to discussing the future trade terms quickly, you can forget any deal and we leave under WTO.
There is still very much a possibility that we leave with no deal, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, so if the EU want to play silly buggers they will have the problems of their budget shortfall, they will have their problems of dealing with a clean break WTO and the UK will also have its problems with a clean break WTO.
Are they really going to do that to themselves with a much better opportunity where they can have their cake and eat it?
One way or another, this next week will be a turning point in how difficult for the UK and EU this divorce will be, lets hope we see some pragmatic realism play out.
Carl_Manchester said:
Breadvan, I am going to have a waffle.
London is absolutely stuffed full of metro-elites. I think the problem is that 'angry in Huddersfield' does not have any power to influence things other than to use their political vote when asked to by central and local government. This is partly due to the diminished role unions are playing in representing this part of the country than they would have played if this was 1977. These people lacked a voice until UKIP came along.
The metropolitan elite are a group of people who hold greater influence due to their business and/or political connections which are more closely wired to the decision makers in central London. Because of this it is more likely that decisions will be made that benefit them than 'angry in huddersfield'.
I include Senior Ministers, CEO's, Judges, Lawyers, Fund managers in this definition. Where are they mostly? they are in London.
Steve Bannon actually widens the net slightly in his definition of this enemy to include over-paid metrosexual men that frequent large cities simply because they are the living embodiment of a financial system that has benefitted them at the expense of many, many more 'angry in huddersfield'.
Sorry to single out one group in particular but your usual European hedge/fund/M&A manager in his £450 shirt who does not leave London Zone 2 but has a British passport and UK voting rights as they have £1m+ in the bank is exactly the type of problem customer that the London system panders to, the system is too skewed in their favour and has been for too long. These people would not even be able to place Huddersfield on a map, lest visit it and yet, their voice is much louder.
This group does not deserve to be insulted, I would sooner play the ball than the man however, the term 'metropolitan elite' is valid because unless you can admit there is a problem you can't discuss the solutions to address them.
Wow.London is absolutely stuffed full of metro-elites. I think the problem is that 'angry in Huddersfield' does not have any power to influence things other than to use their political vote when asked to by central and local government. This is partly due to the diminished role unions are playing in representing this part of the country than they would have played if this was 1977. These people lacked a voice until UKIP came along.
The metropolitan elite are a group of people who hold greater influence due to their business and/or political connections which are more closely wired to the decision makers in central London. Because of this it is more likely that decisions will be made that benefit them than 'angry in huddersfield'.
I include Senior Ministers, CEO's, Judges, Lawyers, Fund managers in this definition. Where are they mostly? they are in London.
Steve Bannon actually widens the net slightly in his definition of this enemy to include over-paid metrosexual men that frequent large cities simply because they are the living embodiment of a financial system that has benefitted them at the expense of many, many more 'angry in huddersfield'.
Sorry to single out one group in particular but your usual European hedge/fund/M&A manager in his £450 shirt who does not leave London Zone 2 but has a British passport and UK voting rights as they have £1m+ in the bank is exactly the type of problem customer that the London system panders to, the system is too skewed in their favour and has been for too long. These people would not even be able to place Huddersfield on a map, lest visit it and yet, their voice is much louder.
This group does not deserve to be insulted, I would sooner play the ball than the man however, the term 'metropolitan elite' is valid because unless you can admit there is a problem you can't discuss the solutions to address them.
Better than Daily Mash this place sometimes.
"Can't even place Huddersfield on a map" - the chips are big with this one.
Farage is not one of these elite of course.
jsf said:
It's the EU that has been pushing for a transition period to get them through the current budget to conclusion.
Really? I don't recall seeing any reports that the EU wants a transition period. Their negotiating position is better if they stick to the two year deadline.The EU certainly wants money from us, but I'm not at all convinced that that has anything to do with wanting a transition period after the A50 two years is up. The EU's position is that we owe money for X years' worth of pre-Brexit commitments. A transition period is irrelevant to that position.
Greg66 said:
jsf said:
It's the EU that has been pushing for a transition period to get them through the current budget to conclusion.
Really? I don't recall seeing any reports that the EU wants a transition period. Their negotiating position is better if they stick to the two year deadline.The EU certainly wants money from us, but I'm not at all convinced that that has anything to do with wanting a transition period after the A50 two years is up. The EU's position is that we owe money for X years' worth of pre-Brexit commitments. A transition period is irrelevant to that position.
This is what Verhofstadt said yesterday evening.
"Six months after the triggering of article 50, it appears that the position of the UK is becoming more realistic. Finally, the UK Government concedes a transition period will be necessary, as the European Parliament already indicated in its resolution of the 5th of April"
Read his full comment on May's speech at https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=101561...
Interesting that Macron is repeating the need for “clarity” and other EU politicians are still overtly hoping we will change our minds.
For clarity, this is where I think we are;
The UK is leaving the EU. Definitely. Stop hoping it might not happen.
We want a free trade deal to cover both physical trade and services.
We want a transitional arrangement to minimise negative impacts on both the EU and UK economies.
We will pay our net contribution during the current budget period if there is a trade deal and therefore a transitional arrangement.
We will consider further payments for long term liabilities if there is a trade deal, with those liabilities having to be reasonable and offset by our share of long term assets that we are foregoing by leaving. If we cannot agree on further liabilities, we will be willing to refer the calculation to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
We may consider ongoing contributions to specific joint projects after leaving, for example Erasmus, Euratom and Europol, where mutually acceptable.
We will not pay for access to the single market as part of a free trade deal.
We will not remain in the single market.
We will not remain in the Customs Union.
We will not create a hard border at the ROI/NI border whether or not there is a trade deal. If there is no trade deal, we will deal with ROI/NI customs via soft controls, declarations and random checks.
EU citizens working in the UK will require a working visa.
EU citizens living in the UK at the point we leave the EU are welcome to remain as long as they want and will be automatically granted a working visa under grandfathering arrangements if they register for one. Immediate relations will be welcome to join them, but will not have automatic working visas. If those relations apply for working visas in the future, their existing residency will give them precedence over new immigrants from the EU.
Disputes over visas and EU citizens rights in the UK will be dealt with by the UK courts.
If there is a trade deal, we will consider a joint UK arbitration panels for disputes over EU citizens with grandfathered visas.
John145 said:
2 fools peddling the same dirty insinuation.
Who's the more racist? The one who prefers a political system that puts Western Europeans on a pedestal or the one who would put everyone on the same?
Regardless, the term race is moronic, there are no races of human. Just ignorance about biology. There are different cultures however and preference to certain cultures is entirely logical and the only way to have a progressive whole.
Read this four times now & it still makes no sense, other than the grammatically deficient fools opener. Who's the more racist? The one who prefers a political system that puts Western Europeans on a pedestal or the one who would put everyone on the same?
Regardless, the term race is moronic, there are no races of human. Just ignorance about biology. There are different cultures however and preference to certain cultures is entirely logical and the only way to have a progressive whole.
Carl_Manchester said:
Breadvan, I am going to have a waffle.
London is absolutely stuffed full of metro-elites. I think the problem is that 'angry in Huddersfield' does not have any power to influence things other than to use their political vote when asked to by central and local government. This is partly due to the diminished role unions are playing in representing this part of the country than they would have played if this was 1977. These people lacked a voice until UKIP came along.
The metropolitan elite are a group of people who hold greater influence due to their business and/or political connections which are more closely wired to the decision makers in central London. Because of this it is more likely that decisions will be made that benefit them than 'angry in huddersfield'.
I include Senior Ministers, CEO's, Judges, Lawyers, Fund managers in this definition. Where are they mostly? they are in London.
Steve Bannon actually widens the net slightly in his definition of this enemy to include over-paid metrosexual men that frequent large cities simply because they are the living embodiment of a financial system that has benefitted them at the expense of many, many more 'angry in huddersfield'.
Sorry to single out one group in particular but your usual European hedge/fund/M&A manager in his £450 shirt who does not leave London Zone 2 but has a British passport and UK voting rights as they have £1m+ in the bank is exactly the type of problem customer that the London system panders to, the system is too skewed in their favour and has been for too long. These people would not even be able to place Huddersfield on a map, lest visit it and yet, their voice is much louder.
This group does not deserve to be insulted, I would sooner play the ball than the man however, the term 'metropolitan elite' is valid because unless you can admit there is a problem you can't discuss the solutions to address them.
Posts like this one are the reason that I just love PH. Absolutely priceless. Steve Bannon, champion of the good old, god fearing folk.London is absolutely stuffed full of metro-elites. I think the problem is that 'angry in Huddersfield' does not have any power to influence things other than to use their political vote when asked to by central and local government. This is partly due to the diminished role unions are playing in representing this part of the country than they would have played if this was 1977. These people lacked a voice until UKIP came along.
The metropolitan elite are a group of people who hold greater influence due to their business and/or political connections which are more closely wired to the decision makers in central London. Because of this it is more likely that decisions will be made that benefit them than 'angry in huddersfield'.
I include Senior Ministers, CEO's, Judges, Lawyers, Fund managers in this definition. Where are they mostly? they are in London.
Steve Bannon actually widens the net slightly in his definition of this enemy to include over-paid metrosexual men that frequent large cities simply because they are the living embodiment of a financial system that has benefitted them at the expense of many, many more 'angry in huddersfield'.
Sorry to single out one group in particular but your usual European hedge/fund/M&A manager in his £450 shirt who does not leave London Zone 2 but has a British passport and UK voting rights as they have £1m+ in the bank is exactly the type of problem customer that the London system panders to, the system is too skewed in their favour and has been for too long. These people would not even be able to place Huddersfield on a map, lest visit it and yet, their voice is much louder.
This group does not deserve to be insulted, I would sooner play the ball than the man however, the term 'metropolitan elite' is valid because unless you can admit there is a problem you can't discuss the solutions to address them.
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