The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
Eddie Strohacker said:
Good hit on the typo.
I realised the lack of profit in offering humour to JSF, so decided to bin it, failing to account for the fact there's always some doofus with nothing better to do at midnight. And I do have something better to do, so happy rofling into the cyber abyss.
You should have just copied and paste my spelling and you could have kept your record of always being right on everything......never mind it just means you are not as special as you think you are.I realised the lack of profit in offering humour to JSF, so decided to bin it, failing to account for the fact there's always some doofus with nothing better to do at midnight. And I do have something better to do, so happy rofling into the cyber abyss.
As for the rest of your post..stop digging and have another
Personally, I'm moderately happy to see at least a bit of Realpolitik in May's speech. The transition period is required for both parties to not make a mess of things. Going to be interesting to see how far the EU will push though, e.g. would expect to see Maggie's rebate go away which will drive up the cost of the transition period.
Greg66 said:
Perhaps you ought to read the European Parliament’s resolution then, and not listen to what Verhofstadt says he wants. Because he isn’t the European Parliament.
And FYI, if someone is posturing, it doesn’t cease to be posturing if they keep it up “for a long time”.
I read them when they came out. It's pretty clear to me what they have been looking to achieve and the method most likely employed to achieve it.And FYI, if someone is posturing, it doesn’t cease to be posturing if they keep it up “for a long time”.
I don't usually post in this thread, but I do know that we were all promised that things would be much better for our country once we left the EU.
I very much look forward to that happening.
Does anyone have an estimate on how long to I have to wait before we are all feeling this improvement?
I very much look forward to that happening.
Does anyone have an estimate on how long to I have to wait before we are all feeling this improvement?
It depends entirely on following through the exit of the SM and CU and sorting out an FTA with the EU. If that happens then we should be able to see gains as soon as we leave after the transition agreement is over. If we don't get a sensible FTA then we are going to need a bit more time for GDP to catch up the loss from disruption of a WTO exit.
This all of course depends on the EU not blowing up in a Euro crisis that is entirely possible, even in the timeframe of the transition agreement period. Plus of course no geopolitical screw-ups such as a war in Korea.
This all of course depends on the EU not blowing up in a Euro crisis that is entirely possible, even in the timeframe of the transition agreement period. Plus of course no geopolitical screw-ups such as a war in Korea.
FiF said:
[
... What was the context of Davis's comment where you wrote 2 years and the date of him making that statement. Despite that date being before even the referendum not even 2 years have passed since then. If he referenced two years from article 50 trigger, then we are only just 6 months past that date. If he meant two years after exit, well we aren't even there yet.
...
As I clearly stated (please pay attention): (1) Davis made his prediction in an article for Conservative Home in February 2016. Context suggests that the two years that he had in mind were the two years from either (1) the referendum decision, or (2) more likely, the date of an Article 50 notice. It would be unkind to Davis to suggest that he meant two years from Feb 2016, and there is no rational reason to suppose that he meant two years from actual exit date. His message was that the UK could and would be up and running with super cool deals once it ditched the EU stuff. ... What was the context of Davis's comment where you wrote 2 years and the date of him making that statement. Despite that date being before even the referendum not even 2 years have passed since then. If he referenced two years from article 50 trigger, then we are only just 6 months past that date. If he meant two years after exit, well we aren't even there yet.
...
Your response is to say "oh, two years aren't up yet". Is that really your answer? If you are seriously suggesting that the wonderful trade deals can be done in whatever portion of two years would now be left (starting the clock in either June 2016 or more sensibly in March 2017), then you may be an even greater optimist than Davis himself.
Note also that this is not a a case of deliberate choice not to negotiate deals because that would be against EU Rules (the UK is leaving, remember? It is amusing to see Brexiteers wriggling as they try to give Davis a let out by being super punctilious about despised rules). Nor is it a case of the deals being negotiated in secret. The open position is that no negotiations have started because the Government does not have the capacity to start negotiations, Such is the ability of the Conservative Party to place its own factional interests above national interest that Government is now bogged down in Brexit. Try getting almost anything done across Government right now and there is a notable degree of paralysis because of what was problem number something below but not far from 99 on the UK's list of problems before the country was hijacked by a group of fraudulent careerists such as Johnson and Farage.
Have a read of the Davis article. It is a breathtaking piece of fatuity, produced by a politician of astonishingly low personal ability - a buffoon who is now in nominal charge of the Brexit process.
SantaBarbara said:
Breadvan72 said:
You chose to see it that way. Others may take a broader view. It's not a childish issue of getting what you want, it's a question of the wider public interest. Would you seriously argue that Trumpism is good for the US or the World? Brexit may be good for Britain, but there are serious arguments as to why it might not be.
BTW, was a clever person mean to you as a child? You seem here and elsewhere to have a thing about clever and/or educated people.
The referendum was last year, why are you still rehearsing the tired old argument?BTW, was a clever person mean to you as a child? You seem here and elsewhere to have a thing about clever and/or educated people.
Breadvan72 said:
SantaBarbara said:
Breadvan72 said:
You chose to see it that way. Others may take a broader view. It's not a childish issue of getting what you want, it's a question of the wider public interest. Would you seriously argue that Trumpism is good for the US or the World? Brexit may be good for Britain, but there are serious arguments as to why it might not be.
BTW, was a clever person mean to you as a child? You seem here and elsewhere to have a thing about clever and/or educated people.
The referendum was last year, why are you still rehearsing the tired old argument?BTW, was a clever person mean to you as a child? You seem here and elsewhere to have a thing about clever and/or educated people.
Nope, he was saying "suck it up", or, to be more polite, the debate about what is in the national interest is now closed. That debate can never be closed (on any subject) in any democracy. One of the sad things about 2016 is that the debate never really opened - the quality of discussion was remarkably poor, with both sides telling whoppers, and the question itself being framed in a bone headed way. Never in the field of human con tricks can so many have been so misled by so few.
OK, that is not true, because history is replete with popular delusions and errors, but Trump and Brexit are two important examples of recent ones. Erdogan is another, but that's another story.
OK, that is not true, because history is replete with popular delusions and errors, but Trump and Brexit are two important examples of recent ones. Erdogan is another, but that's another story.
Breadvan72 said:
FiF said:
[
... What was the context of Davis's comment where you wrote 2 years and the date of him making that statement. Despite that date being before even the referendum not even 2 years have passed since then. If he referenced two years from article 50 trigger, then we are only just 6 months past that date. If he meant two years after exit, well we aren't even there yet.
...
As I clearly stated (please pay attention): (1) Davis made his prediction in an article for Conservative Home in February 2016. Context suggests that the two years that he had in mind were the two years from either (1) the referendum decision, or (2) more likely, the date of an Article 50 notice. It would be unkind to Davis to suggest that he meant two years from Feb 2016, and there is no rational reason to suppose that he meant two years from actual exit date. His message was that the UK could and would be up and running with super cool deals once it ditched the EU stuff. ... What was the context of Davis's comment where you wrote 2 years and the date of him making that statement. Despite that date being before even the referendum not even 2 years have passed since then. If he referenced two years from article 50 trigger, then we are only just 6 months past that date. If he meant two years after exit, well we aren't even there yet.
...
Your response is to say "oh, two years aren't up yet". Is that really your answer? If you are seriously suggesting that the wonderful trade deals can be done in whatever portion of two years would now be left (starting the clock in either June 2016 or more sensibly in March 2017), then you may be an even greater optimist than Davis himself.
Note also that this is not a a case of deliberate choice not to negotiate deals because that would be against EU Rules (the UK is leaving, remember? It is amusing to see Brexiteers wriggling as they try to give Davis a let out by being super punctilious about despised rules). Nor is it a case of the deals being negotiated in secret. The open position is that no negotiations have started because the Government does not have the capacity to start negotiations, Such is the ability of the Conservative Party to place its own factional interests above national interest that Government is now bogged down in Brexit. Try getting almost anything done across Government right now and there is a notable degree of paralysis because of what was problem number something below but not far from 99 on the UK's list of problems before the country was hijacked by a group of fraudulent careerists such as Johnson and Farage.
Have a read of the Davis article. It is a breathtaking piece of fatuity, produced by a politician of astonishingly low personal ability - a buffoon who is now in nominal charge of the Brexit process.
My point is that, whichever 2 years you or he choose as context, as previously clearly stated (please also pay attention) any 2 year timeframe is irrelevant as firstly it is not sensible to be openly declaring what, if anything, we are doing or not doing as it would simply cause friction in the EU negotiations or another stick to be used by others. Secondly, following the May Florence speech, reiterating the desire for transitional arrangements then the two years to do this or that is now largely irrelevant.
That is all. Cannot say it any more simply than that.
And yet not only was he doing that exact thing, he was bragging about it in the press whilst simultaneously promising trade deals greater than the economy of Earth. What a guy!
I mean the Brexit disciples may well yet find they're cheering on a British version of Forest Gump, some form of idiot savant who somehow wins the day as a happy side effect of his bumbling. The rest of us might equally look askance & conclude there goes a boy amongst men.
I mean the Brexit disciples may well yet find they're cheering on a British version of Forest Gump, some form of idiot savant who somehow wins the day as a happy side effect of his bumbling. The rest of us might equally look askance & conclude there goes a boy amongst men.
I am mocking Davis for claiming two years as the period within which the super mega deals would be obtained. I am not suggesting that would ever have happened. I mention Davis' prediction to make the point that Davis is an idiot. The fact that keen Brexiteers are desperate to distance themselves from the bloke who is the Secretary of State for Brexit is almost too funny.
The significance of Davis' absurd claims was that some voters (maybe not those posting here, but who knows?) fell for that sort of claptrap. Many fell for the bus claptrap (despite the claims by one or two here that they never even heard of the bus blah). Irresponsible promises and whacky predictions were a hallmark of the leave campaign. Voters, sadly, do not always apply BS detectors to stuff spouted by people on telly in suits.
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