Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 4

[turbobloke]

LoonyTunes said:

When are the effects of this Solar minimum supposed to set in, only:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-...

First things first: "joint hottest summer on record for the UK" so not a new record even within the hypoerbolic interpretation of record. Then there's "along with 2006, 2003 and 1976, all of which are within 0.03C of each other" so it's another not-really-a-record among several not-really-records due to uncertainty in measurements. For modern day near surface temperature data the overall uncertainty is ± 0.07 deg C at the 95% confidence level.

With no causality to humans in any record either genuine or pretend, it's not of any profound consequence anyway but such headlines will heat the globes of activists for sure.

As to solar and temperature data still indicating a potential Dalton (or Maunder) minimum, we can report back on how the data progressed and any impacts present or absent ca 2030.

For an illustration of range regarding local impact see data below from Armagh Observatory NI (Dr John Butler).

Armagh solar data is continuous from 1740 and the observatory environs have been protected from urban sprawl and the UHIE more than other sites in an attempt to limit light pollution which would restrict observations. As to which is which (below, from Butler) note that the average sunspot cycle length is 11 years (not magnetic, which is 22 years av).



As everyone agw supporters included will know, carbon dioxide levels do not show any such fingerprint and note that solar leads temperature which is even clearer in the data due to the scale of the plot.

Edited by turbobloke on Monday 3rd September 15:49

[wc98]

LoonyTunes said:

When are the effects of this Solar minimum supposed to set in, only:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-...

yet the hottest temp of the year was recorded by a weather station not part of the international data recording stations and only has a history going back to 1996 ? still didn't beat the record temp recorded in a more rural area in 1906 that was 1.2 c higher , hmmm, where is that warming trend.
given land use changes since 1906 and general increase in uhi i would say the fact that record temps that are over 100 years old are not being smashed (not bouncing around a tenth of a degree that wasn't recorded back in the day when the resolution was 0.5c at best in many cases) regularly in the uk says something about the forecast warming doom and gloom.

[dickymint]

LoonyTunes said:

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

When are the effects of this Solar minimum supposed to set in, only:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-...

2019/2020 according to NASA do you have a problem with that?

I'm looking forward to the big-cooling. It's coming right? Definitely...yes?

According to NASA? or you? Definately not by any model

[turbobloke]

LoonyTunes said:

I'm looking forward to the big-cooling. It's coming right? Definitely...yes?

Check the data for yourself over time. solar and temp. Climate models will tell you nothing of use.

This representation of historical data is also from Dr John Butler at Armagh and illustrates the local impact that can be expected at a generally UHIE-free location depending on what the data shows.

[dickymint]

Quote on the BBC just now "the cold events are not quite as cold as they used to be"

[LoonyTunes]

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

When are the effects of this Solar minimum supposed to set in, only:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-...

2019/2020 according to NASA do you have a problem with that?

I'm looking forward to the big-cooling. It's coming right? Definitely...yes?

According to NASA? or you? Definately not by any model

According to Turbobloke no?

[LoonyTunes]

turbobloke said:

Check the data for yourself over time. solar and temp. Climate models will tell you nothing of use.

This representation of historical data is also from Dr John Butler at Armagh and illustrates the local impact that can be expected at a generally UHIE-free location depending on what the data shows.

I'm afraid the axis aren't clear on this on my PC - got a better resolved copy?

[dickymint]

LoonyTunes said:

According to Turbobloke no?

Grow up!

[Diderot]

Dicky, he's got an axis to grind.

[LoonyTunes]

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

According to Turbobloke no?

Grow up!

But...but...just last year Turbobloke was saying:

"Based on solar data, climate cooling is still on the cards, imminent rather than current and Dalton or Maunder in extent."

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[Diderot]

LoonyTunes said:

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

According to Turbobloke no?

Grow up!

But...but...just last year Turbobloke was saying:

"Based on solar data, climate cooling is still on the cards, imminent rather than current and Dalton or Maunder in extent."

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

And there was a pause in warming for 18 years that none of your consensus scientists or their flawed models predicted and none of them has yet been able to explain (though there are some 60 or so attempts at justifying their failure floating around like turds in a sewer). Indeed in the Climategate emails Trenberth (leading consensus scientist) describes the issue and the lack of being able to account for the lack of warming, as a travesty.

So, I can’t quite see your point. Given the abject and utter failure of any model to match the data, I’d suggest that a game of pin the tail on the donkey might have more success at predicting any future warming, pauses or cooling.

[turbobloke]

LoonyTunes said:

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

According to Turbobloke no?

Grow up!

But...but...just last year Turbobloke was saying:

"Based on solar data, climate cooling is still on the cards, imminent rather than current and Dalton or Maunder in extent."

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Was on the cards, still is on the cards, according to the data not me (agw supporters like to offer non-points by attempting to shoot the messenger) but no crystal ball exists so follow the data.

NASA scientist David Hathaway has said something rather similar and in the New York Times no less in 2009:

David Hathaway of NASA said:

Still, something like the Dalton Minimum - two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots - lies in the realm of the possible.

Better late than never.

This was posted in a PH climate thread in 2011 and not for the first time iirc.



Like IPCC climate model outputs, Dalton/Maunder ideas will be tested against data and on many occasions where a possible Dalton or Maunder event is being discussed I've pointed out that the only thing to do is keep an eye on the data.

Not for the first time in 2017 I also said:

We can do no more than keep an eye on the data

With summer temperature non-records in the news today on PH, this came to light looking through a climate thread back in 2010. It's a Climategate email regarding one of The Team's cunning and very "inventive" plans.

Jenkins in email 0848679780 said:

Remember all the fun we had last year over 1995 global temperatures, with the early release of information (via Australia) “inventing” the December monthly value, letters to Nature, etc., etc.? I think we should have a cunning plan about what to do this year, simply to avoid a lot of wasted time.

In another climate thread dating back to 2007 this (image below) shows that the so-called consensus was/is invented to help convince politicians. It's a page in a book which quotes a statement by a former Head of IPCC (Houghton) about how the IPCC first 'orchestrated' a consensus to gull politicians.

[gadgetmac]

Diderot said:

LoonyTunes said:

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

According to Turbobloke no?

Grow up!

But...but...just last year Turbobloke was saying:

"Based on solar data, climate cooling is still on the cards, imminent rather than current and Dalton or Maunder in extent."

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

And there was a pause in warming for 18 years that none of your consensus scientists or their flawed models predicted and none of them has yet been able to explain (though there are some 60 or so attempts at justifying their failure floating around like turds in a sewer). Indeed in the Climategate emails Trenberth (leading consensus scientist) describes the issue and the lack of being able to account for the lack of warming, as a travesty.

So, I can’t quite see your point. Given the abject and utter failure of any model to match the data, I’d suggest that a game of pin the tail on the donkey might have more success at predicting any future warming, pauses or cooling.

I think you can’t see his point because you’re too busy going off on a tangent to defend Turbobloke with something he’s not actually talking about.

WTF has the 18 years of supposed non-warming (https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm) got to do with the anticipted drop of temperatures starting next year???

You’re a funny bloke

[Diderot]

gadgetmac said:

Diderot said:

LoonyTunes said:

dickymint said:

LoonyTunes said:

According to Turbobloke no?

Grow up!

But...but...just last year Turbobloke was saying:

"Based on solar data, climate cooling is still on the cards, imminent rather than current and Dalton or Maunder in extent."

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

And there was a pause in warming for 18 years that none of your consensus scientists or their flawed models predicted and none of them has yet been able to explain (though there are some 60 or so attempts at justifying their failure floating around like turds in a sewer). Indeed in the Climategate emails Trenberth (leading consensus scientist) describes the issue and the lack of being able to account for the lack of warming, as a travesty.

So, I can’t quite see your point. Given the abject and utter failure of any model to match the data, I’d suggest that a game of pin the tail on the donkey might have more success at predicting any future warming, pauses or cooling.

I think you can’t see his point because you’re too busy going off on a tangent to defend Turbobloke with something he’s not actually talking about.

WTF has the 18 years of supposed non-warming (https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm) got to do with the anticipted drop of temperatures starting next year???

You’re a funny bloke

I thought New York/Miami/Cleethorpes/Tuvalu/Maldives etc was supposed to be underwater by now, or was it a billion climate refugees displaced, or was Fat Albert Gore going be living in a yellow submersible or was it fireball earth or some other fairytale extrapolation/armaggedon/judgement day scenario?

Oh and BTW how are those failed model predictions doing? Still utterly/completely/entirely/absolutely/consummately/definitively wrong? Or do you still deny the data?

[turbobloke]

On the one hand there's peer-reviewed science so loved by The Team e.g. Fife et al "Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years" Nature Climate Change 3, 767–769 (2013) with sound stats, and their update paper. On the other hand there's the global warming advocacy blog (non)SkepticalScience where content should also be judged on its merits and demerits, People can and will make up their own minds.

[robinessex]

WTF has the 18 years of supposed non-warming (https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm) got to do with the anticipted drop of temperatures starting next year???

Has anyone got the date and time this will happen so I can get my jumper(s) out!

[LoonyTunes]

turbobloke said:

People can and will make up their own minds.

I think you'll find they have which is why you and your cult are arguing your point on a car forum in a tiny corner of the Internet.

[LoonyTunes]

robinessex said:

WTF has the 18 years of supposed non-warming (https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm) got to do with the anticipted drop of temperatures starting next year???

Has anyone got the date and time this will happen so I can get my jumper(s) out!

I dunno, ask Turbobloke as apparently it's far more likely and imminent t'boot (see the post at 18:01 yesterday).

[turbobloke]

LoonyTunes said:

robinessex said:

WTF has the 18 years of supposed non-warming (https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm) got to do with the anticipted drop of temperatures starting next year???

Has anyone got the date and time this will happen so I can get my jumper(s) out!

I dunno, ask Turbobloke as apparently it's far more likely and imminent t'boot (see the post at 18:01 yesterday).

I didn't use the word imminent in my post at 1801 as that was somebody else, so the above is a misrepresentation. The coffee I'm about to brew is imminent.

As posted previously, keep an eye on the data as this is the only way to see how solar-temperature is progressing.

The New York Times has tried and failed to scare readers (surprise) using a blend of averages and models rather than empirical data alone. Not quite "Mike's Nature Trick" but a good effort.

http://www.climatedepot.com/2018/09/03/nyts-latest...

.

[LoonyTunes]

turbobloke said:

I didn't use the word imminent in my post at 1801 as that was somebody else, so the above is a misrepresentation.

What is the matter with you Turbobloke? No seriously? That's just an outright lie.

A link was supplied to you using the word "imminent".

Click on the link FFS and here's what you said:

turbobloke said:

Keep your wick dry for a while yet. Based on solar data, climate cooling is still on the cards, imminent rather than current and Dalton or Maunder in extent.

It's no wonder only the cult believe you fella. They'll overlook this as usual though.