Discussion
Jimboka said:
Funny how his party gave the conservatives a kicking at recent by-election & came close in the other.
Come election time in a year or two, they will gain many MPs, as the only true anti-brexit party.
A sensible choice to be the voice of the 48% +
Ahhh bless - just goes to show what an absolute failure care in the community was Come election time in a year or two, they will gain many MPs, as the only true anti-brexit party.
A sensible choice to be the voice of the 48% +
Fastdruid said:
Jimboka said:
Funny how his party gave the conservatives a kicking at recent by-election & came close in the other.
Come election time in a year or two, they will gain many MPs, as the only true anti-brexit party.
A sensible choice to be the voice of the 48% +
By-elections have minuscule turnouts and almost invariably the government gets a kicking. Come election time in a year or two, they will gain many MPs, as the only true anti-brexit party.
A sensible choice to be the voice of the 48% +
That is the "normal" state of affairs.
What would be far more telling is if the Conservatives win Copeland.
Guybrush said:
Fastdruid said:
Jimboka said:
Funny how his party gave the conservatives a kicking at recent by-election & came close in the other.
Come election time in a year or two, they will gain many MPs, as the only true anti-brexit party.
A sensible choice to be the voice of the 48% +
By-elections have minuscule turnouts and almost invariably the government gets a kicking. Come election time in a year or two, they will gain many MPs, as the only true anti-brexit party.
A sensible choice to be the voice of the 48% +
That is the "normal" state of affairs.
What would be far more telling is if the Conservatives win Copeland.
For the party in power to win a safe seat in a by-election is an almost unheard of event. Outside of shenanigans we're talking about the first government gain in a by election from an opposition party overturning a majority of over 3% without a disqualification, defection, or major change in the parties standing since 1873.
Fastdruid said:
It's a staggering result. Both for Labour and the Lib Dems. More so IMO for Labour as the Lib Dems did at least increase their vote share.
For the party in power to win a safe seat in a by-election is an almost unheard of event. Outside of shenanigans we're talking about the first government gain in a by election from an opposition party overturning a majority of over 3% without a disqualification, defection, or major change in the parties standing since 1873.
I guess the Lib Dems picked up some Labour voters.For the party in power to win a safe seat in a by-election is an almost unheard of event. Outside of shenanigans we're talking about the first government gain in a by election from an opposition party overturning a majority of over 3% without a disqualification, defection, or major change in the parties standing since 1873.
hornetrider said:
Personally think Tim nice but dim will be a big winner from today's announcement. Will surely reap a remoaner backlash at the polls.
Have they got any money in the kitty? The by-election here where they came second must have left them almost penniless. Then they won a local election (just - 63 votes!) and I have never experienced in almost 50 years such harassment (the 'only' word for it) by a party. They even sent me 2 personalised letters (all in blue of all colours, printed on pale blue paper! Perhaps to deceive?) on the day of polling, and called me by phone 3 times in a week even when I had told them that I'd never vote Lib-Dum Ever. Persistent little buggers, I'll give them that.
They still do live up to their photos though of being Lib-Dum. That one that did the rounds on here a while back, can't find it so here's the latest.
dandarez said:
Have they got any money in the kitty? The by-election here where they came second must have left them almost penniless.
Then they won a local election (just - 63 votes!) and I have never experienced in almost 50 years such harassment (the 'only' word for it) by a party. They even sent me 2 personalised letters (all in blue of all colours, printed on pale blue paper! Perhaps to deceive?)
At the last general election, the constituency where I live in Dorset was seen as a key marginal seat (which the Lib Dems lost to the Torys in fact). The Lib Dems put out an amazing amount of crap - including a fake propaganda newspaper (imaginatively titled "Dorset News") - I thought some of it was probably sailing a bit close to the wind. Didn't help also that the previous candidate retired, and her replacement is seen locally as having a bit of a "Marmite" personality (probably in common with most politicians I guess...). Then they won a local election (just - 63 votes!) and I have never experienced in almost 50 years such harassment (the 'only' word for it) by a party. They even sent me 2 personalised letters (all in blue of all colours, printed on pale blue paper! Perhaps to deceive?)
But I agree - if they campaign on the basis of reversing Article 50 (if that's even possible), they stand a good chance of doing fairly well (perhaps better than labour, but I doubt as well as the Torys... who currently have a massive lead in every opinion poll?).
stevesuk said:
At the last general election, the constituency where I live in Dorset was seen as a key marginal seat (which the Lib Dems lost to the Torys in fact). The Lib Dems put out an amazing amount of crap - including a fake propaganda newspaper (imaginatively titled "Dorset News") - I thought some of it was probably sailing a bit close to the wind. Didn't help also that the previous candidate retired, and her replacement is seen locally as having a bit of a "Marmite" personality (probably in common with most politicians I guess...).
But I agree - if they campaign on the basis of reversing Article 50 (if that's even possible), they stand a good chance of doing fairly well (perhaps better than labour, but I doubt as well as the Torys... who currently have a massive lead in every opinion poll?).
From the brief input form the libdems that I've seen since the announcement it would appear that they are going for the 'ability to control the manner of exit' sort of thing. I think that will generate more support than a rather silly 'let's stay'. But I agree - if they campaign on the basis of reversing Article 50 (if that's even possible), they stand a good chance of doing fairly well (perhaps better than labour, but I doubt as well as the Torys... who currently have a massive lead in every opinion poll?).
I think the election has been called a little early for them to reap too many benefits from the labour debacle unless, and it is a big if, some of the labour candidates jump ship after being deselected.
Derek Smith said:
stevesuk said:
At the last general election, the constituency where I live in Dorset was seen as a key marginal seat (which the Lib Dems lost to the Torys in fact). The Lib Dems put out an amazing amount of crap - including a fake propaganda newspaper (imaginatively titled "Dorset News") - I thought some of it was probably sailing a bit close to the wind. Didn't help also that the previous candidate retired, and her replacement is seen locally as having a bit of a "Marmite" personality (probably in common with most politicians I guess...).
But I agree - if they campaign on the basis of reversing Article 50 (if that's even possible), they stand a good chance of doing fairly well (perhaps better than labour, but I doubt as well as the Torys... who currently have a massive lead in every opinion poll?).
From the brief input form the libdems that I've seen since the announcement it would appear that they are going for the 'ability to control the manner of exit' sort of thing. I think that will generate more support than a rather silly 'let's stay'. But I agree - if they campaign on the basis of reversing Article 50 (if that's even possible), they stand a good chance of doing fairly well (perhaps better than labour, but I doubt as well as the Torys... who currently have a massive lead in every opinion poll?).
Fastdruid said:
Derek Smith said:
stevesuk said:
At the last general election, the constituency where I live in Dorset was seen as a key marginal seat (which the Lib Dems lost to the Torys in fact). The Lib Dems put out an amazing amount of crap - including a fake propaganda newspaper (imaginatively titled "Dorset News") - I thought some of it was probably sailing a bit close to the wind. Didn't help also that the previous candidate retired, and her replacement is seen locally as having a bit of a "Marmite" personality (probably in common with most politicians I guess...).
But I agree - if they campaign on the basis of reversing Article 50 (if that's even possible), they stand a good chance of doing fairly well (perhaps better than labour, but I doubt as well as the Torys... who currently have a massive lead in every opinion poll?).
From the brief input form the libdems that I've seen since the announcement it would appear that they are going for the 'ability to control the manner of exit' sort of thing. I think that will generate more support than a rather silly 'let's stay'. But I agree - if they campaign on the basis of reversing Article 50 (if that's even possible), they stand a good chance of doing fairly well (perhaps better than labour, but I doubt as well as the Torys... who currently have a massive lead in every opinion poll?).
As another poster suggested, there are many non-tory voters out there. Labour may or may not be in the dreadful state suggested by the press, but they seem to be making themselves unattractive to the centre/centre left. That's a big chunk of voters.
The current political situation is unusual, to say the least, and predictions are little more than guesswork. May seems sure that her majority will increase, but then Cameron was sure there'd be a remain vote. I wonder if she has the same advisers.
If ever there was a time for stability, this is it. The countdown is progressing. The EU negotiators must be rubbing their hands as everything is up for grabs.
My expectation is that the tory majority will increase but that is little more than a guess.
The libdems have a massive infrastructure that, whilst damaged in their pathetic voting for the trebling of uni fees, still exists. If - and it would be a brave person who would suggest they wont - the labour party indulges in internal squabbles then the only beneficiary will be the libdems.
Much will depend of Farron. John Smith turned the labour party from a rabble into something electable. Had he not, rather selfishly, died he would have been PM. All it took was a new leader.
To be rather simplistic, Corbyn lacks presence. He does not generate confidence in his ability. I can't see him gaining the popular vote. My unevidenced opinion is that there might well be a new second party.
What a time to risk the unknown. Nice one, May.
johnxjsc1985 said:
all I can see is the Libdems taking Labour Votes to let in more Conservatives.. They will come second in a lot of seats Labour will be squeezed from all sides.
Barring some horrific economic figures coming out or a government-toppling scandal, this is what will happen.hidetheelephants said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
all I can see is the Libdems taking Labour Votes to let in more Conservatives.. They will come second in a lot of seats Labour will be squeezed from all sides.
Barring some horrific economic figures coming out or a government-toppling scandal, this is what will happen.Also, there have been endless arguments put forward by the remoaners about the idea that leavers didn't have chance to vote for what type of leave they actually wanted. So what is their alternative strategy ? I doubt many who voted leave would see staying in the common market, which in turn means complete freedom of movement for people, as actually leaving the EU. But leaving the common market means 'hard Brexit'. So what exactly are lib dems going to put forward in the way of 'soft Brexit' ? Now's the time they have to stop moaning and actually be constructive with their counter proposals if they are to offer a choice......I don't see what that alternative is
Meanwhile, there seems to have be an assumption by remoaners that many who voted leave now regret it. And that nobody who voted remain has changed their mind. I'm not so sure that's right - for all those that do seem upset, many who voted remain seem lees upset now about leaving than they did at the time of the election. And leavers are so upset with the way they have been talked down to pos-referendum, they won't change their mind now on principle.
hidetheelephants said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
all I can see is the Libdems taking Labour Votes to let in more Conservatives.. They will come second in a lot of seats Labour will be squeezed from all sides.
Barring some horrific economic figures coming out or a government-toppling scandal, this is what will happen.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff