tesla , the future ?
Discussion
poo at Paul's said:
Zoon said:
durbster said:
Perhaps I overestimate the diligence of the British public but I doubt many people are going to buy a car they can't charge.
You've missed my point, I'm referring to the occasions when you reach the nearest charger and it is out of order or in use.Assuming the entire population have access to a home charger and never need to use public charge points then it becomes less of an issue.
What's the approximate average time one is at petrol station? 3 minutes ? 5 minutes tops? Now if they can get the charging done as quickly as that, I can see them taking over, but if this is possible, at what cost will it be? Part of the viability of EVs present is the cheap or free charging, you can bet that once the infrastructure is in place to make it viable universally, it will be neither free nor cheap.
The massive investment in infrastructure will need to be recouped and then a profit made. Ultimately, the arrival of this new tech universally will cost the motorist / public, no way around that, and naïve in the extreme to think otherwise.
If charging points were installed in places you parked for longer ( supermarkets, sport centre car parks, public car parks, etc), then your EV could spend time charging while you're doing other things. So you'd be less likely to need a 5 minute charge particularly often.
REALIST123 said:
V8 Fettler said:
Average annual mileage in the UK = 8k, A 1000 mile range means recharge perhaps once a month. Tesla could probably build a lightweight version of one of their current offerings with a range of 500 miles. Can roof mounted solar cells trickle charge an EV when it's at rest?
The little-used back roads will deteriorate due to lack of maintenance, some will be pounded into rubble by heavy agricultural vehicles. Enthusiasts who wish to travel far from the maddening crowd whilst controlling obsolete vehicles powered by controlled explosions will then turn to the various Land Rover products.
The little-used back roads will deteriorate due to lack of maintenance, some will be pounded into rubble by heavy agricultural vehicles. Enthusiasts who wish to travel far from the maddening crowd whilst controlling obsolete vehicles powered by controlled explosions will then turn to the various Land Rover products.
If Tesla can do the then why don't they? I'd be interested in one of those.
What would the tech be? What does the battery itself weigh? How much does weight affect overall range? Where would they lose the weight?
then the 500 mile range EV probably exists https://electrek.co/2017/04/27/tesla-model-s-p100d...
Also: http://nordic.businessinsider.com/the-energy-lego-...
Why won't Tesla develop something with a 500 mile range? Perhaps that's in the pipeline? Perhaps there's a risk of overstretch?
DapperDanMan said:
SPACEX now reusing first stages and performing multiple launches per week.
As with many things Musk related this is technically accurate to an extent but gives a false impression. Yes, they have occasionally reused refurbished first stages, basically to prove it could be done. And yes, a couple of times they have launched more than one in a single week - but their launch tempo is nowhere near 'multiple per week' on average at the moment.The endless spin and misrepresentation gets boring after a while.
V8 Fettler said:
Why won't Tesla develop something with a 500 mile range? Perhaps that's in the pipeline? Perhaps there's a risk of overstretch?
Probably because for 99% of people 500 miles range in one hit isn't needed. Much better to role out the supercharger network.Any, all this discussion about Musk. Any guy who can retire young to a desert island with millions but instead starts his own company to land rockets like some Sci-fi film gets my full respect.
98elise said:
Why? Not everyone will be charging at the same time. You fill your car with energy not power, so you may have to throttle power locally (rate of charge) at peak power times but as long as you have enough energy then you are fine. During the night we have plenty of spare capacity.
That is very very easy to implement. I could design something to do that in a matter of hours, and could build it from a few simple components available in Maplins.
That is very very easy to implement. I could design something to do that in a matter of hours, and could build it from a few simple components available in Maplins.
You should let the national grid know you got this they can relax
My experience with an EV, showed that due to the fundamental charging vs fill with petrol difference, plus the "range anxiety" that some from running an EV, (in "" as for most people where an EV suits, they should have no such anxiety), is that they bring out the "selfish" in people. And by that I mean it was a bit like when we had the fuel depot blockages in 2000, people were filling up at every opportunity, as they never knew when they may be able to again! it is human nature, where a commodity is potentially scarce. So people with 90% charge would stop at a service station for a coffee and top up to 100% for 30 mins.......meaning someone with 10% had to wait for 30 mins til the point was free.
We topped up the Zoe every night initially, but later on if it had 50%, we left it, as we did not need to and got "lazy" or comfortable with doing only 20 miles per day. But certainly when travelling any distance, and without the luxury of a 2 min splash and dash should we need to divert, or hit delays, we were the same as everyone else, and would end up with an average capacity of 70% or so! And yet on a journey in an ICE car, so long as I have close to range to get there, or nearby, I just go and will fill up when I need to, and rarely actually "fill up", just keep enough in to get where I need to. Because I know that I can always get more easily. ..............unitl the next fuel blockage........at which point my ICE will become like and EV and I will have it 80% full at all times!
It's human nature. And as EVs become more popular, the selfishness will become worse and more of a bind. And the people offering "free" charging will stop and start to charge for it, on the back of trying to stop the selfishness. But again, when fuel was scarce, and normal price was 70p per litre, even putting it to 120p meant any fuel station had queues for hundreds of yards.
We topped up the Zoe every night initially, but later on if it had 50%, we left it, as we did not need to and got "lazy" or comfortable with doing only 20 miles per day. But certainly when travelling any distance, and without the luxury of a 2 min splash and dash should we need to divert, or hit delays, we were the same as everyone else, and would end up with an average capacity of 70% or so! And yet on a journey in an ICE car, so long as I have close to range to get there, or nearby, I just go and will fill up when I need to, and rarely actually "fill up", just keep enough in to get where I need to. Because I know that I can always get more easily. ..............unitl the next fuel blockage........at which point my ICE will become like and EV and I will have it 80% full at all times!
It's human nature. And as EVs become more popular, the selfishness will become worse and more of a bind. And the people offering "free" charging will stop and start to charge for it, on the back of trying to stop the selfishness. But again, when fuel was scarce, and normal price was 70p per litre, even putting it to 120p meant any fuel station had queues for hundreds of yards.
rscott said:
Given that most governments want users to switch to EVs, I can see duty/RFL, etc being tweaked to ensure EVs are the cheaper option though.
If charging points were installed in places you parked for longer ( supermarkets, sport centre car parks, public car parks, etc), then your EV could spend time charging while you're doing other things. So you'd be less likely to need a 5 minute charge particularly often.
But of course they did that with diesels 20 years ago and look how that worked out. Sadly I think there are fundamental flaws in the policies as there were with the rise of the diesel all them years ago, and now it's all going back the other way. And as was the case with diesel,, they "incentivised" diesel on RFL, and penalised petrol, and what happened......the oil companies stuck up the price of diesel so it was 15% or so more than petrol, whereas, before, due to the lower level of refining and legacy of agricultural use, diesel was always 15% cheaper! If charging points were installed in places you parked for longer ( supermarkets, sport centre car parks, public car parks, etc), then your EV could spend time charging while you're doing other things. So you'd be less likely to need a 5 minute charge particularly often.
I think the same will happen with EV, (it already is to a degree). Cheap RFL will just mean the charging companies will increase their rates and joe public will have no alternative. The complete lack of any meaningful competition in the electricity market in UK also is a concern. Our electricity is not cheap, as we all know.
I can see the Western Developed world developing all this tech and infrastructure, but hamstringing itself as it does so, and less "green" and concerned nations thriving with continued existing ICE technology. Let us make all the "mistakes" (like we have with diesel) , let us sort it, then pick it up for free.
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There's only so much power you can put down a cable rated for the old peak. You start throttling peoples power and I think you will face fierce resistance to change. Not sure why you conflate infrastructure issues with Musk worship. The man is probably a genius but probably not a living god. I think TSLA is wildly overvalued but you'd have to be mad to bet against Musk. Jim Chanos has called many of the recent corporate failures from Enron to Lehman and made himself a billionaire in the process. He's been far more critical of TSLA than anyone on this thread...
fblm said:
RobDickinson said:
Yep utterly impossible, shame its already been done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/london-st...
They wont be fast chargers, just low wattage trickle charge meant for overnight topups I guess
Come on. How many of those can you put on one street? Think about it. That's a 4.6kW charger. A street with 10 lamp posts a side would need a 480A circuit! 480A at 240V! Does that mean anything to you? It's a solution that can only provide a tiny handful of locations in any area. It's so obviously not a solution beyond a few first adopters. Honestly, I just don't think you or many people appreciate how much power these cars need and the challenges of providing it to more than a handful of people at a time on circuits not designed for it.http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/london-st...
They wont be fast chargers, just low wattage trickle charge meant for overnight topups I guess
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surely that depends on where you live and your lifestyle. i accept i am far from the norm but i do around 30k miles every year just going recreational fishing. 350 mile round trips where the venue is in the back of beyond are a regular occurrence . i do not see many car sharing options for people like me,and there are plenty of us. climbers, hill walkers,trout/salmon anglers etc.
fblm said:
98elise said:
Why? Not everyone will be charging at the same time. You fill your car with energy not power, so you may have to throttle power locally (rate of charge) at peak power times but as long as you have enough energy then you are fine. During the night we have plenty of spare capacity.
That is very very easy to implement. I could design something to do that in a matter of hours, and could build it from a few simple components available in Maplins.
That is very very easy to implement. I could design something to do that in a matter of hours, and could build it from a few simple components available in Maplins.
You should let the national grid know you got this they can relax
If you do, how much energy do you think is needed on average per car per day, and do you believe that cannot be delivered by a domestic supply?
Edited by 98elise on Tuesday 17th October 19:01
DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.
I like Musk a lot not least because I made enough on TSLA last year to buy one... but he can be full of s
t (Mars?) when things aren't going his way and Tesla product launches are utterly cringe worthy but he see's a problem, learns everything there is to learn about it in very short order, then swings for the fences going for the most logical engineering solution, consensus be damned. It's hard not to have faith in a guy who puts his entire fortune on the line every time. As for power delivery, 'clever people are working on it' doesn't really cut it. I'm sure clever people worked on those ridiculous lamp post gimmicks above too. Are you suggesting, analogous to data transfer speeds, more power can be delivered down existing cables than they are currently rated for? Regardless, my point (and the national grids!) was simply that the far better solution for charging is centralised stations/carparks/work, not at home.
Zoon said:
durbster said:
Perhaps I overestimate the diligence of the British public but I doubt many people are going to buy a car they can't charge.
You've missed my point, I'm referring to the occasions when you reach the nearest charger and it is out of order or in use.Assuming the entire population have access to a home charger and never need to use public charge points then it becomes less of an issue.
Yes that's a point. Perhaps charging spots will be fought over in the future like parking spaces are today.
So Elon Musk, blaggard and shyster of the highest order.
Except he made millions taking on the banking system with paypal. Has a physics/economics degree. Has about the grandest vision for mankind any industry leader has ever shown. Created companies worth tens of billions by taking on banks, aerospace and motoring giant.
When he started SpaceX he couldnt hire many actual rocket scientists, who would want to work for a silly little startup? So he learned how to make rockets himself.
https://www.quora.com/How-did-Elon-Musk-learn-enou...
As for 500 mile Evs I'm sure there will be a model S equivalent in 6-7 years with that range, 150-170kWh battery.
But for 99%+ people thats going to be too much battery (size/weight/cost) so I think the typical EV target will be 80-100kWh, this should give a good 300-350mile practical range. means most people would need to charge once a week.
Except he made millions taking on the banking system with paypal. Has a physics/economics degree. Has about the grandest vision for mankind any industry leader has ever shown. Created companies worth tens of billions by taking on banks, aerospace and motoring giant.
When he started SpaceX he couldnt hire many actual rocket scientists, who would want to work for a silly little startup? So he learned how to make rockets himself.
https://www.quora.com/How-did-Elon-Musk-learn-enou...
Jim Cantrell said:
I helped Elon start the company and all of these answers are spot on. He still has my book on rocket propulsion.....
What I found from working with Elon is that he starts by defining a goal and he puts a lot of effort into understanding what that goal is and why it is a good and valid goal. His goal, as I see it, has not changed from the day he first called me in August of 2001. I still hear it in his speeches. His goal was to make mankind a multi planetary species and to do that he had to first solve the transportation problem.
Once he has a goal, his next step is to learn as much about the topic at hand as possible from as many sources as possible. He is by far the single smartest person that I have ever worked with ... period. I can't estimate his IQ but he is very very intelligent. And not the typical egg head kind of smart. He has a real applied mind. He literally sucks the knowledge and experience out of people that he is around. He borrowed all of my college texts on rocket propulsion when we first started working together in 2001. We also hired as many of my colleagues in the rocket and spacecraft business that were willing to consult with him. It was like a gigantic spaceapalooza. At that point we were not talking about building a rocket ourselves, only launching a privately funded mission to Mars. I found out later that he was talking to a bunch of other people about rocket designs and collaborating on some spreadsheet level systems designs for launchers. Once our dealings with the Russians fell apart, he decided to build his own rocket and this was the genesis of SpaceX.
So I am going to suggest that he is successful not because his visions are grand, not because he is extraordinarily smart and not because he works incredibly hard. All of those things are true. The one major important distinction that sets him apart is his inability to consider failure. It simply is not even in his thought process. He cannot conceive of failure and that is truly remarkable. It doesn't matter if its going up against the banking system (Paypal), going up against the entire aerospace industry (SpaceX) or going up against the US auto industry (Tesla). He can't imagine NOT succeeding and that is a very critical trait that leads him ultimately to success. He and I had very similar upbringings, very similar interests and very similar early histories. He was a bit of a loner and so was I. He decided to start a software company at age 13. I decided to design and build my own stereo amplifier system at age 13. Both of us succeeded at it. We both had engineers for fathers and were extremely driven kids. What separated us, I believe, was his lack of even being able to conceive failure. I know this because this is where we parted ways at SpaceX. We got to a point where I could not see it succeeding and walked away. He didn't and succeeded. I have 25 years experience building space hardware and he had none at the time. So much for experience.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-elon-musk-learned-rocket-science-for-spacex-2014-10?r=US&IR=TWhat I found from working with Elon is that he starts by defining a goal and he puts a lot of effort into understanding what that goal is and why it is a good and valid goal. His goal, as I see it, has not changed from the day he first called me in August of 2001. I still hear it in his speeches. His goal was to make mankind a multi planetary species and to do that he had to first solve the transportation problem.
Once he has a goal, his next step is to learn as much about the topic at hand as possible from as many sources as possible. He is by far the single smartest person that I have ever worked with ... period. I can't estimate his IQ but he is very very intelligent. And not the typical egg head kind of smart. He has a real applied mind. He literally sucks the knowledge and experience out of people that he is around. He borrowed all of my college texts on rocket propulsion when we first started working together in 2001. We also hired as many of my colleagues in the rocket and spacecraft business that were willing to consult with him. It was like a gigantic spaceapalooza. At that point we were not talking about building a rocket ourselves, only launching a privately funded mission to Mars. I found out later that he was talking to a bunch of other people about rocket designs and collaborating on some spreadsheet level systems designs for launchers. Once our dealings with the Russians fell apart, he decided to build his own rocket and this was the genesis of SpaceX.
So I am going to suggest that he is successful not because his visions are grand, not because he is extraordinarily smart and not because he works incredibly hard. All of those things are true. The one major important distinction that sets him apart is his inability to consider failure. It simply is not even in his thought process. He cannot conceive of failure and that is truly remarkable. It doesn't matter if its going up against the banking system (Paypal), going up against the entire aerospace industry (SpaceX) or going up against the US auto industry (Tesla). He can't imagine NOT succeeding and that is a very critical trait that leads him ultimately to success. He and I had very similar upbringings, very similar interests and very similar early histories. He was a bit of a loner and so was I. He decided to start a software company at age 13. I decided to design and build my own stereo amplifier system at age 13. Both of us succeeded at it. We both had engineers for fathers and were extremely driven kids. What separated us, I believe, was his lack of even being able to conceive failure. I know this because this is where we parted ways at SpaceX. We got to a point where I could not see it succeeding and walked away. He didn't and succeeded. I have 25 years experience building space hardware and he had none at the time. So much for experience.
As for 500 mile Evs I'm sure there will be a model S equivalent in 6-7 years with that range, 150-170kWh battery.
But for 99%+ people thats going to be too much battery (size/weight/cost) so I think the typical EV target will be 80-100kWh, this should give a good 300-350mile practical range. means most people would need to charge once a week.
98elise said:
...how much energy do you think is needed on average per car per day, and do you believe that cannot be delivered by a domestic supply?
250bn car miles a year, say 4 miles/kWh, 25m cars -> 6.8kWh / car day ? Overnight trickle charge 10 hrs, call it 1kW... of course a domestic supply can deliver that. Is that the point you're labouring? But demand isn't smooth unless you're going to limit chargers to 4A/1kW then at the street level on a bank holiday Monday evening you'll have half the street plugging their flat cars in at 32A... can that phase handle that? Seems a stretch. Better hope no one has a supercharger. Sure it's an outlier case but the infrastructure has to cope with the outlier case, like tea time in the world cup final, only 32 times more...(ish). Sure there are lots of ways in theory to mitigate the draw like scheduling and throttling but you're simply not going to convince people to switch to EV's by making them less convenient... Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff