tesla , the future ?
Discussion
REALIST123 said:
That sounds contradictory. If it's 'held' in cash, which sounds like they can't touch it, how is it a liability?
If it's on the BS as a liability the implication is that they're using it, isn't it?
I think the chance of a tits up event is small. Whilst I agree with the likes of Chanos and Einhorn about Teslas cash situation and valuation I think they underestimate the cult like following the cars and even TSLA stock seems to have. If they did a secondary issue half the retail shareholders would probably be happy to buy more and dilute themselves! More likely they can always hit up the junk bond mkt again (they did $1.8bn earlier this summer at under 6%).
Read on Jalopnik, that during some conference call with Elon, he was asked directly about whether they could achieve the quoted production rate in 2018. Apparently there was a good 10seconds of silence before he answered. He finally admitted that they’ve dropped a clanger...but only realised this quite recently.
Still... it’s not all rosy for everyone else either. BMW are recalling 1.4 million cars in the US due to a possible fire risk.
As said, they just need to be a bit more realistic, but more honest, transparent and take it one step at a time. I understand their rush, but at the same time there are clearly very many people who want them to succeed and wouldn’t like to see it all fall by the way side at the last hurdle.
Still... it’s not all rosy for everyone else either. BMW are recalling 1.4 million cars in the US due to a possible fire risk.
As said, they just need to be a bit more realistic, but more honest, transparent and take it one step at a time. I understand their rush, but at the same time there are clearly very many people who want them to succeed and wouldn’t like to see it all fall by the way side at the last hurdle.
A big feature on Tesla in the FT today, led by a front page snippet below. It sounds like they are struggling with the reality of ramping up production. I’ve got no axe to grind and think it’s done a great job of moving the EV forward in leaps and bounds, but I think we may well have seen the top for the share price.
limpsfield said:
A big feature on Tesla in the FT today, led by a front page snippet below. It sounds like they are struggling with the reality of ramping up production. I’ve got no axe to grind and think it’s done a great job of moving the EV forward in leaps and bounds, but I think we may well have seen the top for the share price.
Post-production Uplift isn't all that crazy in manufacturing. Could be as simple as a certain seat option has been delayed by a supplier or plug-and-play box needs a hardware modification.Rather than sit all the vehicles in one site and bring in technicians, sent the cars to the dealers and let them do it.
Seems unlikely in this case though.
Plus the official press statement comes out with some BS explanation involving giving customers continuous improvement, nothing about shortages.
Considering the cost and effort involved it feels most likely they shipped to get their figures up rather than put cars in storage and wait to get things done properly. Though having seen the state of some of what comes out of the factory maybe getting the dealers to do it instead might be an improvement.
Plus the official press statement comes out with some BS explanation involving giving customers continuous improvement, nothing about shortages.
Considering the cost and effort involved it feels most likely they shipped to get their figures up rather than put cars in storage and wait to get things done properly. Though having seen the state of some of what comes out of the factory maybe getting the dealers to do it instead might be an improvement.
Lord.Vader said:
Tesla suggest they managed to make 250 cars in Q3, just over 15% of their target, expected rate is 5000 per week in 2018.
Really?
Are they suggest in the total Q3 they built 260 cars and yet by early 2018 they expect to be building 5000 per week, or are the BBC figures wrong?
As someone who works in the industrialisation and ramp up / down of an aerospace supply chain / manufacturing facilities an increase from 22 cars per week (260/12 weeks for Q3) to 5000 per week, is unachievable in 6months.
Q1 almost over... would you be shocked to learn Q1 deliveries are looking more like 600 per week? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4158040-tesla-may...Really?
Are they suggest in the total Q3 they built 260 cars and yet by early 2018 they expect to be building 5000 per week, or are the BBC figures wrong?
As someone who works in the industrialisation and ramp up / down of an aerospace supply chain / manufacturing facilities an increase from 22 cars per week (260/12 weeks for Q3) to 5000 per week, is unachievable in 6months.
Company downgraded yesterday, stock down a 1/3 in 6 months and estimates are it's going to need 6-8bn fresh capital over the next 18 months(!)...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4159701-tesla-dre...
How low does it go before they sort model 3 production out? Down 9% yesterday!
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 29th March 05:26
Bloomberg say over 1000 a week and they lag quite a bit they are registering 2500 vin a week at the moment..
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-trac...
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-trac...
RobDickinson said:
Bloomberg say over 1000 a week and they lag quite a bit they are registering 2500 vin a week at the moment..
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-trac...
Conversly Tesla can block book Vin numbers so they have them available to be allocated to vehicles not yet manufacturered.https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-trac...
Thats one way that a company could try to give the impression that it is making more cars than they actually are.
It is of course a very short term measure and would look very shady once the subtrefuge was discovered. However if you manage to stop the slide in share value and gain some much needed investments in the meantime it may be just what is needed to keep the company afloat.
Cheers,
Tony
RobDickinson said:
Bloomberg say over 1000 a week and they lag quite a bit they are registering 2500 vin a week at the moment..
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-trac...
That's the peak, not the average over the quarter. Still a fraction of even January forecast, encouraging trend though. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-trac...
have we had this yet ? sec investigation not mentioned to shareholders ? https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/m...
did someone mention a recall may be a bigger issue for them than established manufacturers ? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29...
it should all be fine though because people working for free will be able to achieve what paid employees can't. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29...
did someone mention a recall may be a bigger issue for them than established manufacturers ? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29...
it should all be fine though because people working for free will be able to achieve what paid employees can't. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29...
Evanivitch said:
limpsfield said:
A big feature on Tesla in the FT today, led by a front page snippet below. It sounds like they are struggling with the reality of ramping up production. I’ve got no axe to grind and think it’s done a great job of moving the EV forward in leaps and bounds, but I think we may well have seen the top for the share price.
Post-production Uplift isn't all that crazy in manufacturing. Could be as simple as a certain seat option has been delayed by a supplier or plug-and-play box needs a hardware modification.Rather than sit all the vehicles in one site and bring in technicians, sent the cars to the dealers and let them do it.
Every manufacturer has to prove that their cars are manufactured to a standard, in the same way and place
Even setting up a separate facility need separate COP..
I once encountered issues with DVSA as one Doc had the Factory address and one had the manufacturer's Head office address on.
No N1 Cert for me
Having assembly completed in numerous places would give your average DVSA man a Connery.
Jazzy Jag said:
This would take them outside the scope of their Conformity of Production (COP) and cause all sorts of Type Approval issues IMHO.
Every manufacturer has to prove that their cars are manufactured to a standard, in the same way and place
Even setting up a separate facility need separate COP..
I once encountered issues with DVSA as one Doc had the Factory address and one had the manufacturer's Head office address on.
No N1 Cert for me
Having assembly completed in numerous places would give your average DVSA man a Connery.
When is that baseline cut?Every manufacturer has to prove that their cars are manufactured to a standard, in the same way and place
Even setting up a separate facility need separate COP..
I once encountered issues with DVSA as one Doc had the Factory address and one had the manufacturer's Head office address on.
No N1 Cert for me
Having assembly completed in numerous places would give your average DVSA man a Connery.
There is a long history of dealer fitted options, or software updates and recalls being performed at dealerships. As long as the CoP outlines their deficiencies (and I assume has an appropriate concession attached) then I don't see the issue?
(All from a position of ignorance. I work with Certificate of Conformity and Certificates of Design on prototype hardware generally so I'm intrigued how mass production manages these issues)
Evanivitch said:
When is that baseline cut?
There is a long history of dealer fitted options, or software updates and recalls being performed at dealerships. As long as the CoP outlines their deficiencies (and I assume has an appropriate concession attached) then I don't see the issue?
(All from a position of ignorance. I work with Certificate of Conformity and Certificates of Design on prototype hardware generally so I'm intrigued how mass production manages these issues)
There is a long history of dealer fitted options, or software updates and recalls being performed at dealerships. As long as the CoP outlines their deficiencies (and I assume has an appropriate concession attached) then I don't see the issue?
(All from a position of ignorance. I work with Certificate of Conformity and Certificates of Design on prototype hardware generally so I'm intrigued how mass production manages these issues)
I developed a commercial derivative of an SUV which involved taking out the rear seats, fitting a flat floor, fitting shear off bolts to the seat belt anchor points, disconnect the rear electric windows and fitting film over the rear side windows to obscure them.
All the CoC docs, which meant that you could go to DVLA and register it and carry 7 people goes out the window. Start again.
Boxes are obviously more valuable than lives.
I had to produce the individual test reports for every area of approval which DVSA then read and picked holes in, like the addresses for the approval holder being different on different tests. One is HQ while another is the factory.
I then had to get CoP for the import centre, even down to calibration to tools and torque wrenches and training records for the staff carrying out the work.
The UK parts supplier had to get CoP for the kit of parts.
If a dealer wanted to convert a stock vehicle we weren't allowed to send a kit as that broke my N1 type approval.
We could ship the vehicle back to the import centre and do it there, but not at the dealership.
The real difficult part came when the DVSA man spotted that the part number moulded into the air filter cover had a different suffix to the approval doc and that in some instances a part number was written as xxx xxx x in in another it was xxx.xxx.x or xxxxxxx.
Clearly carrying boxes of stuff requires a much higher safety standard than just people.
It took me 6 months of paperwork exercises with DVSA, overseas manufacturer and TUV to make a van.
Fitting seats as part of the production process at a dealership, by staff and tooling outside the scope of the manufacturers CoP is a big
Seats are a huge issue in type approval in terms of anchor points and what is referred to as the R point (all to do with the relationship between the seat, seatbelt anchor and the occupants hip) difficult when the seat moves up, down, backwards and forward.
It's a bloody minefield.
Jazzy Jag said:
I developed a commercial derivative of an SUV which involved taking out the rear seats, fitting a flat floor, fitting shear off bolts to the seat belt anchor points, disconnect the rear electric windows and fitting film over the rear side windows to obscure them.
All the CoC docs, which meant that you could go to DVLA and register it and carry 7 people goes out the window. Start again.
Boxes are obviously more valuable than lives.
I had to produce the individual test reports for every area of approval which DVSA then read and picked holes in, like the addresses for the approval holder being different on different tests. One is HQ while another is the factory.
I then had to get CoP for the import centre, even down to calibration to tools and torque wrenches and training records for the staff carrying out the work.
The UK parts supplier had to get CoP for the kit of parts.
If a dealer wanted to convert a stock vehicle we weren't allowed to send a kit as that broke my N1 type approval.
We could ship the vehicle back to the import centre and do it there, but not at the dealership.
The real difficult part came when the DVSA man spotted that the part number moulded into the air filter cover had a different suffix to the approval doc and that in some instances a part number was written as xxx xxx x in in another it was xxx.xxx.x or xxxxxxx.
Clearly carrying boxes of stuff requires a much higher safety standard than just people.
It took me 6 months of paperwork exercises with DVSA, overseas manufacturer and TUV to make a van.
Fitting seats as part of the production process at a dealership, by staff and tooling outside the scope of the manufacturers CoP is a big
Seats are a huge issue in type approval in terms of anchor points and what is referred to as the R point (all to do with the relationship between the seat, seatbelt anchor and the occupants hip) difficult when the seat moves up, down, backwards and forward.
It's a bloody minefield.
Murph7355 said:
Which begs the question - why didn't you just buy one of the myriad vans available
I was working for the importer.We had stock of vehicles which, due to an upcoming change in legislation would not be able to register after a certain date.
Making a commercial derivative offered an additional product range for a new market and sidestepped the change in legislation.
When you have a compound full of cars and some idiot gives you a date at which point they become paperweights is a
moment.In some instances you can give DVSA a VIN list and get a period of derogation but the number of vehicles you can derogate depends on how many vehicles you sold last year or on how DVSA feel on the day.
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