BLAIR, his latest intervention. Should he shut up ?

[Northern Munkee]

Here's a couple of things 68% just want to get on with it, including over 50% of the 18-35yr old category, there is no #Bregret yet, and he has an uphill task http://www.westmonster.com/just-15-now-want-to-blo... ICM poll is attached in the article for fact checkers.

Now I challenge any remainers or leavers to watch this Guardian event video by John Harris, (and yes it's the Guardian!) with a team of lefty intellectuals including Varoufakis, as they acknowledge there is a whole lot more than racism or stupidity to Brexit, than some would have you believe, indeed even though I disagree with some of their conclusions, but agree there are reasons for concerns, that are worrying, but not inevitable there is a whole lot more to Brexit, and the collapse of EU. What they want is a different sort of EU, I just don't believe that the turkey (EU) will vote for that Xmas, or any other sort of reconstitution.

Anyway the ideas and arguments are far more nuanced and balanced, than left vs right. I voted out and would still vote out, as even if I agree with a lot of what they say, my conclusion is different, this is worth 90mins of your time.

https://youtu.be/AraqxOnOS64

Edited by Northern Munkee on Saturday 18th February 16:26

[mybrainhurts]

Derek Smith said:

If the EU breaks up, the resulting instability and lack of direction will harm European trade and to an extent world trade. Everyone will suffer. What the UK wants post exit is a stable and successful EU.

I think you win the Twaddle Of The Month Award with that statement, Derek.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

The Government white paper.

You don't go into any negotiation without being prepared to walk away or you will have your pants pulled down every time.

[jjlynn27]

Northern Munkee said:

Here's a couple of things 68% just want to get on with it, including over 50% of the 18-35yr old category, there is no #Bregret yet, and he has an uphill task http://www.westmonster.com/just-15-now-want-to-blo... ICM poll is attached in the article for fact checkers.

Now I challenge any remainers or leavers to watch this Guardian event video by John Harris, (and yes it's the Guardian!) with a team of lefty intellectuals including Varoufakis, as they acknowledge there is a whole lot more than racism or stupidity to Brexit, than some would have you believe, indeed even though I disagree with some of their conclusions, but agree there are reasons for concerns, that are worrying, but not inevitable there is a whole lot more to Brexit, and the collapse of EU. What they want is a different sort of EU, I just don't believe that the turkey (EU) will vote for that Xmas, or any other sort of reconstitution.

Anyway the ideas and arguments are far more nuanced and balanced, than left vs right. I voted out and would still vote out, as even if I agree with a lot of what they say, my conclusion is different, this is worth 90mins of your time.

https://youtu.be/AraqxOnOS64

Edited by Northern Munkee on Saturday 18th February 16:26

Westmonster, setup by the bloke who financed leave campaign? Anyhow, from that poll;

ICM said:

Although there is only a 5-point difference between those who think Brexit will have a negative impact (43%) on the British economy compared to adopting a more positive interpretation (38%), this obscures a huge divide between Remainers and Leavers. Four in five Remainers (81%) think the economy will falter but seven in ten (70%) Leavers believe it will power on.

I doubt anyone normal claims that all Brexiters are racists and/or stupid. I hear that line often, never with any evidence.

I'm still of the opinion that there will be significant negative consequences to the economy in short to medium turn, I'm waiting to see what the result of negotiation is going to be. We've put contingency plan in place, so I guess we are more insulated than most people.

[Troubleatmill]

jjlynn27 said:

I doubt anyone normal claims that all Brexiters are racists and/or stupid. I hear that line often, never with any evidence.

Let's kill this nonsense about racism or stupidity.

99.99% of Brexiteers are not racist or stupid.
99.99% of Remainers are not racist or stupid.

There is nothing racist or stupid about wanting your country to be governed by representatives you elect.
What we do not expect them to do... is give all of that power away.

Edited by Troubleatmill on Saturday 18th February 18:36

[hairyben]

mybrainhurts said:

Derek Smith said:

If the EU breaks up, the resulting instability and lack of direction will harm European trade and to an extent world trade. Everyone will suffer. What the UK wants post exit is a stable and successful EU.

I think you win the Twaddle Of The Month Award with that statement, Derek.

why? seems perfectly a reasonable statement to me.

Brussels is trying to big this out with threats of trade tariffs etc but a lot of the problem economies in europe rely heavily on exporting to the UK, but stuff you can get anywhere, making it difficult for this to continue will see produce coming from morocco or somewhere instead, countries like spain and ireland on losing vast export markets may well default on their debt/have no choice but to crash out of the the eu and the crash will tank europe and probably screrw the whole world economy.

[Derek Smith]

mybrainhurts said:

Derek Smith said:

If the EU breaks up, the resulting instability and lack of direction will harm European trade and to an extent world trade. Everyone will suffer. What the UK wants post exit is a stable and successful EU.

I think you win the Twaddle Of The Month Award with that statement, Derek.

There's a lot of good argument in your post. I'm not sure it overrides the historical imperative of stability generating trade and the reverse with instability. The EU is a substantial trading block.

Any little hiccup can cause problems with international trade and the EU breaking up would be more than a little hiccup.

If the EU does break up then our best hope is for it to be gradual. Greece going, then Spain and Italy.

[Stickyfinger]

hairyben said:

why? seems perfectly a reasonable statement to me.

Brussels is trying to big this out with threats of trade tariffs etc but a lot of the problem economies in europe rely heavily on exporting to the UK, but stuff you can get anywhere, making it difficult for this to continue will see produce coming from morocco or somewhere instead, countries like spain and ireland on losing vast export markets may well default on their debt/have no choice but to crash out of the the eu and the crash will tank europe and probably screrw the whole world economy.

I personally know a buyer for a supermarket/large warehousing supply business. He is at present in a North African country talking to/assisting farmers who are expanding their farms/infrastructure so they can supply the UK directly precisely to avoid the increasing prices and regulations/transport costs of the EU.

[turbobloke]

zygalski said:

turbobloke said:

Derek Smith said:

cayman-black said:

We should all be happy as nearly all european countries now want what we had a vote on leaving europe.
We will be in a very good position once this gets moving.

If the EU breaks up, the resulting instability and lack of direction will harm European trade and to an extent world trade. Everyone will suffer. What the UK wants post exit is a stable and successful EU.

Anyone would think Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are lands of milk and honey thanks to the EU. Talk about suffering...

It's amazing to think they ever coped before the shining light of the EU lit them up.

One thing's for sure.
The impact of hard Brexit will be negligible on those who spend 10+ hours every day glued to a car website forum.

If they enjoy it, that's freedom of choice for you.

At 15-20 posts per day, each taking 30 seconds at most after about the same time reading the most recent posts in the threads I reply to, I only spend 20 minutes per day at most on PH, so can't speak from experience regarding the impact of Brexit on PHers who spend more time here.

The impact of Brexit on those spending 20 minutes per day is closer to home and in this particular instance it's very positive, I voted Leave and we're leaving, that's positive as I can take care of the rest having realised after the Referendum Act was passed that the vote could go either way.

[SKP555]

Derek Smith said:

If the EU does break up then our best hope is for it to be gradual. Greece going, then Spain and Italy.

Why? That could mean years of uncertainty, hesitating, resistance and back peddling. You like history so look at glasnost.

The more successful countries leaving the Soviet orbit were those who made fairly radical reforms early on like Slovenia and Czech. Short term pain yes, but not the lost decades experienced by Belarus as it tried (still tries) to cling to Soviet dogma and gradual reform.

If the EU had sensible intelligent leadership it would abandon the political union project immediately and be what it always should have been - a free trade area with optional areas of cooperation and harmonisation. They really missed the chance to do this when their constitution was rejected and they renamed it as the Lisbon Treaty and forced it through anyway. With Mr Blair's help.

The EU has no such wit for exactly the same reason as the Kremlin of the 1980s didn't - remote bureaucrats with little accountability or oversight are too arrogant to ever admit that their project is wrong. It may need a little tweaking, as slowly and mildly as possible to placate the masses, but we wouldn't want to rock the boat too much. Even if it's a boat with mass youth unemployment, spiralling public debt, a dysfunctional currency and all the rest.

Unfortunately because of this I am increasingly convinced that the break up of the EU will be messy and bitter, but mercifully sudden and terminal.

[mybrainhurts]

Derek Smith said:

mybrainhurts said:

Derek Smith said:

If the EU breaks up, the resulting instability and lack of direction will harm European trade and to an extent world trade. Everyone will suffer. What the UK wants post exit is a stable and successful EU.

I think you win the Twaddle Of The Month Award with that statement, Derek.

There's a lot of good argument in your post. I'm not sure it overrides the historical imperative of stability generating trade and the reverse with instability. The EU is a substantial trading block.

Any little hiccup can cause problems with international trade and the EU breaking up would be more than a little hiccup.

If the EU does break up then our best hope is for it to be gradual. Greece going, then Spain and Italy.

If your assertion were correct, Europe before the EU would have been catastrophic. It wasn't.

Tarrifs of a few % will not lead to Armageddon.

[turbobloke]

mybrainhurts said:

Derek Smith said:

mybrainhurts said:

Derek Smith said:

If the EU breaks up, the resulting instability and lack of direction will harm European trade and to an extent world trade. Everyone will suffer. What the UK wants post exit is a stable and successful EU.

I think you win the Twaddle Of The Month Award with that statement, Derek.

There's a lot of good argument in your post. I'm not sure it overrides the historical imperative of stability generating trade and the reverse with instability. The EU is a substantial trading block.

Any little hiccup can cause problems with international trade and the EU breaking up would be more than a little hiccup.

If the EU does break up then our best hope is for it to be gradual. Greece going, then Spain and Italy.

If your assertion were correct, Europe before the EU would have been catastrophic. It wasn't.

It was just fine, unlike now for Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Not long ago, Ireland too. All in the mire, some desperately so, for years.

We're about to do well as a nation, better than previously thought, and those prisoner nations remaining in the EU know it. Wonder which one will be the next to escape...

[Northern Munkee]

jjlynn27 said:

Northern Munkee said:

Here's a couple of things 68% just want to get on with it, including over 50% of the 18-35yr old category, there is no #Bregret yet, and he has an uphill task http://www.westmonster.com/just-15-now-want-to-blo... ICM poll is attached in the article for fact checkers.

Now I challenge any remainers or leavers to watch this Guardian event video by John Harris, (and yes it's the Guardian!) with a team of lefty intellectuals including Varoufakis, as they acknowledge there is a whole lot more than racism or stupidity to Brexit, than some would have you believe, indeed even though I disagree with some of their conclusions, but agree there are reasons for concerns, that are worrying, but not inevitable there is a whole lot more to Brexit, and the collapse of EU. What they want is a different sort of EU, I just don't believe that the turkey (EU) will vote for that Xmas, or any other sort of reconstitution.

Anyway the ideas and arguments are far more nuanced and balanced, than left vs right. I voted out and would still vote out, as even if I agree with a lot of what they say, my conclusion is different, this is worth 90mins of your time.

https://youtu.be/AraqxOnOS64

Edited by Northern Munkee on Saturday 18th February 16:26

Westmonster, setup by the bloke who financed leave campaign? Anyhow, from that poll;

ICM said:

Although there is only a 5-point difference between those who think Brexit will have a negative impact (43%) on the British economy compared to adopting a more positive interpretation (38%), this obscures a huge divide between Remainers and Leavers. Four in five Remainers (81%) think the economy will falter but seven in ten (70%) Leavers believe it will power on.

I doubt anyone normal claims that all Brexiters are racists and/or stupid. I hear that line often, never with any evidence.

I'm still of the opinion that there will be significant negative consequences to the economy in short to medium turn, I'm waiting to see what the result of negotiation is going to be. We've put contingency plan in place, so I guess we are more insulated than most people.

Strange. I never contended that 'all' Brexiters are racist or stupid. I said 'there was a whole lot more to Brexit than racism or stupidity'. That's not same thing at all, although there may have been elements, for some more than others, and for some not at all. As to ''anyone normal' what is 'normal'? There are plenty people across social media (which is where most discourse takes place and ideas are exchanged) implicit and explicit from some commentators, media and politicians, that some voters had displayed one or both. Stress some. And it would be true the trope 'Not all Brexiteers are racist, but most racists are Brexiteers' (Wil Self - fact checkers) springs to mind. A good old passive aggressive barb to set anyone on the defensive, designed to move the goal posts to 'I'm not one of them... some of my best friends are... (own goal).

As to polls I only posted it for the benefit of Brexiteers, as broad indicator, in so far as 23Jun is/ought to be the only poll that mattered/matters and that there is no need to panic about Blair's intervention, he has a right to speak, perhaps not to be given quite so much air time. Although the last time people rose up, in defiance of the govt, in any serious numbers, before a democratic disobedience on 23Jun, was in protest at the Iraq War, for which his motivation and integrity, on anything subsequently, must always be questioned. If he wants a second referendum he can fk off, but if he gets a 2nd referendum I'd like to think the electorate will send him packing (for good), preferably to the The Hague.

Which is not to say he is wrong on Brexit, because he lied (IMHO) about WMD. I believe he is wrong about Brexit, but he may still be right we will be worse off economically, although there is no way of knowing as we will never be able to agree a measure or period of time, and there will be no way to be certain that a counter factual reality would have been better, although we can all have an opinion. But like the "new left" in the video, the EU in its current form will collapse, its undemocratic, it doesn't work, it's strained now, more than ever, there is no common European identity or demos, as much as they are trying to force one on to it, no country called Europe, no home called Europe, or at least not from these islands this side of the channel, as I see it. Consequently I'd rather continue with this nation state, that does have those things, common language, broadly the same culture, even if it needs some fixing, or is still a work in progress, it's better than most for a 1000yrs or union for 300, if the 1707 Act of union distinction needs to be acknowledged. And like the intellectuals say without Brexit the EU will never be reformed, or not until something much uglier comes to pass, to pull it apart, which it may still need. Which is why I believe we are better off out, in control of our own destiny as far as we can.

Edited to fix grammar

Edited by Northern Munkee on Saturday 18th February 20:31

[anonymous-user]

Troubleatmill said:

jjlynn27 said:

I doubt anyone normal claims that all Brexiters are racists and/or stupid. I hear that line often, never with any evidence.

Let's kill this nonsense about racism or stupidity.

99.99% of Brexiteers are not racist or stupid.
99.99% of Remainers are not racist or stupid.

There is nothing racist or stupid about wanting your country to be governed by representatives you elect.
What we do not expect them to do... is give all of that power away.

Edited by Troubleatmill on Saturday 18th February 18:36

I think this is some of the yougov evidence, it of course, indicates education rather than stupidity and seems to link racism with being in a lower socioeconomic group.

Either way, evidence suggests brexiters were, generally less well off and less educated than remainers.

Make of that what you will. But it doesn't indicate brexiters were racist or thick.

Unfortunately on PHs the thickest and most racist posters seem to be mainly brexiters. I say unfortunately as I'm one of them and I find my team generally make the most ignorant comments. I know a great many reasonable and intelligent people that voted to leave but PHs gives a very negative and skewed opinion of Brexiters,

Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 18th February 20:38

[Vanin]

Blair at least managed to do one thing right to save his skin. He should have been hanged for treason as there is not a lot more treasonable than taking your country to war on a false premise
He managed to repeal the last remaining law where the death penalty was still in existence for treason in 1998 when he came to power.
Mind you coming home to Cherie every night might be a fate worse than hanging.

[loafer123]

Could you give a link to the data? I am struggling to find it on the YouGov site.

[alfie2244]

Now here's a funny thing:

"We will negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs" –Election address, 1983

Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...


http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...

[mybrainhurts]

alfie2244 said:

Now here's a funny thing:

"We will negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs" –Election address, 1983

Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...


http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...

Well, yes, but things have changed since then.

Plenty of lucrative non jobs for Tony in there now. He dreams of being President too.

Witness Mr and Mrs Welsh windbag, snouts firmly in troughs for a very long time.

[alfie2244]

mybrainhurts said:

alfie2244 said:

Now here's a funny thing:

"We will negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs" –Election address, 1983

Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...


http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...

Well, yes, but things have changed since then.

Plenty of lucrative non jobs for Tony in there now. He dreams of being President too.

Witness Mr and Mrs Welsh windbag, snouts firmly in troughs for a very long time.

You mean he who couldn't walk on pebbly beach without falling into the sea and making himself look a pratt........that welsh windbag?

[mybrainhurts]

alfie2244 said:

mybrainhurts said:

alfie2244 said:

Now here's a funny thing:

"We will negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs" –Election address, 1983

Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...


http://metro.co.uk/2007/05/02/the-things-tony-said...

Well, yes, but things have changed since then.

Plenty of lucrative non jobs for Tony in there now. He dreams of being President too.

Witness Mr and Mrs Welsh windbag, snouts firmly in troughs for a very long time.

You mean he who couldn't walk on pebbly beach without falling into the sea and making himself look a pratt........that welsh windbag?

That Welsh windbag, yes...