Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 8

[Edinburger]

Evercross said:

simoid said:

Maybe she’ll ACTUALLY call a referendum

I'd love to see her try....

I read we'll hear "detailed and substantive" plans for Scottish independence.

We live in interesting times...

[andy_s]

Edinburger said:

Evercross said:

simoid said:

Maybe she’ll ACTUALLY call a referendum

I'd love to see her try....

I read we'll hear "detailed and substantive" plans for Scottish independence.

We live in interesting times...

Didn't we have those in 2014....?

For a party wanting independence since 1935 they certainly like to leave it very late in the day to describe exactly what life will be like after the glorious day. I can't imagine why that would be.

Hopefully there will be a neat click-bait tagline that'll fit on the side of an Edinburgh tram [rather than a red bus] that'll sway the masses into making a decision that will be the mere work of an afternoon to execute..

[simoid]

Edinburger said:

I read we'll hear "detailed and substantive" plans for Scottish independence.

We live in interesting times...

Where did you read that?

She’ll need to have some indication of a wish to possibly desire another referendum in the future so SNP get their votes in the European elections. “Look - some people voted SNP in an election therefore we must have a referendum at some point in the not-too-near-so-it’s-actually-tangible but not-too-distant future.”

[Evercross]

andy_s said:

Didn't we have those in 2014....?

And 2018!

simoid said:

Where did you read that?

I'll bet 'burger's exact phrase "detailed and substantive" will be used to describe yet another vague rehash of what they think will keep their impatient core vote on the leash for another wee while. Subsequently, anyone actually looking for the meat on the bones will get the full wrath of the core vote for daring to question the orthodoxy,

simoid said:

She’ll need to have some indication of a wish to possibly desire another referendum in the future so SNP get their votes in the European elections. “Look - some people voted SNP in an election therefore we must have a referendum at some point in the not-too-near-so-it’s-actually-tangible but not-too-distant future.”

Professor Curtice makes that exact point in his interview. The SNP have fully embraced the notion of continued EU membership and supporting a second vote on Brexit, so with EU elections coming up they have to stick to the timeline, which gives them the perfect excuse to stall a bit longer on the indy calls - applying a 'wait and see' approach which is actually a reverse psychology tactic - support us in this election and your indyref becomes more likely (honest, guv).

Truth is though that EU membership needs to be settled one way or the other for the SNP regardless of the outcome as their core vote are as divided on the issue as every other parties', and Nicola's bet on Brexit going one way only was woefully premature.

Edited by Evercross on Tuesday 23 April 18:48

[Edinburger]

Evercross said:

andy_s said:

Didn't we have those in 2014....?

And 2018!

simoid said:

Where did you read that?

I'll bet 'burger's exact phrase "detailed and substantive" will be used to describe yet another vague rehash of what they think will keep their impatient core vote on the leash for another wee while. Subsequently, anyone actually looking for the meat on the bones will get the full wrath of the core vote for daring to question the orthodoxy,

simoid said:

She’ll need to have some indication of a wish to possibly desire another referendum in the future so SNP get their votes in the European elections. “Look - some people voted SNP in an election therefore we must have a referendum at some point in the not-too-near-so-it’s-actually-tangible but not-too-distant future.”

Professor Curtice makes that exact point in his interview. The SNP have fully embraced the notion of continued EU membership and supporting a second vote on Brexit, so with EU elections coming up they have to stick to the timeline, which gives them the perfect excuse to stall a bit longer on the indy calls - applying a 'wait and see' approach which is actually a reverse psychology tactic - support us in this election and your indyref becomes more likely (honest, guv).

Truth is though that EU membership needs to be settled one way or the other for the SNP regardless of the outcome as their core vote are as divided on the issue as every other parties', and Nicola's bet on Brexit going one way only was woefully premature.

Edited by Evercross on Tuesday 23 April 18:48

Ms Sturgeon is making a speech on "Brexit and Scotland's future" at 1:30 p.m. My bet is that she focuses on lines such as "Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against her will" and "not what Scotland voted for", etc., etc.

The result of the EU referendum has played right into the hands of Scottish nationalists. I also think that there is an argument for another independence referendum - with or without a Section 30 order - and I think that Scotland will vote for independence this time. Too much has changed and Westminster's handling of Brexit will result in many Scots voting for something new and refreshing. I'm fairly open-minded but I see and hear a lot of people talking about independence again.

I can also see a reunited Ireland within ten years or so. Ireland and Scotland will (re)join the EU leaving England and Wales in a fairly hapless position.

Sorry state of affairs.

[mcdjl]

Edinburger said:

Ms Sturgeon is making a speech on "Brexit and Scotland's future" at 1:30 p.m. My bet is that she focuses on lines such as "Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against her will" and "not what Scotland voted for", etc., etc.

The result of the EU referendum has played right into the hands of Scottish nationalists. I also think that there is an argument for another independence referendum - with or without a Section 30 order - and I think that Scotland will vote for independence this time. Too much has changed and Westminster's handling of Brexit will result in many Scots voting for something new and refreshing. I'm fairly open-minded but I see and hear a lot of people talking about independence again.

I can also see a reunited Ireland within ten years or so. Ireland and Scotland will (re)join the EU leaving England and Wales in a fairly hapless position.

Sorry state of affairs.

I think its exposed the madness of their position. Union A of which we make up 10% is bad and bullying us, we want out. Union B of which we make up 1% is great and will love us.
The Brexit 'easiest deal ever' BS is nothing in comparison to 'we'll have left within 2 years and it'll cost under £60m'. What happens when that 2 years is up Scotland isn't independant and the people want to have a vote on the deal they've got of leaving the UK....a scottish peoples vote?
Everything that's playing out now with the UK leaving the EU will happen again if Scotland leaves the UK...but 10x worse due to being a lot more intertwined as a result of 300 years of union rather than 30.
United ireland in 10 years? I admire the optimism. The aim is to remove the 'peace walls within 4' in northern ireland. They can't even agree on where that journalist was shot last week, Derry or Londonderry? Theres a long way to go before Northern Ireland can talk to itself civilly.

[Borghetto]

Edinburger said:

- and I think that Scotland will vote for independence this time. Too much has changed and Westminster's handling of Brexit will result in many Scots voting for something new and refreshing. I'm fairly open-minded but I see and hear a lot of people talking about independence again.

Who do you think you're kidding :rolleyes

[Dinoboy]

The biggest thing that Brexit has taught us(as if we didn't already know) is that Mp's across the board have been exposed as utterly self serving, hopeless short term thinkers who I wouldn't trust to take my dog for a walk.

[Pastor Of Muppets]

Edinburger said:

Ms Sturgeon is making a speech on "Brexit and Scotland's future" at 1:30 p.m. My bet is that she focuses on lines such as "Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against her will" and "not what Scotland voted for", etc., etc.

The result of the EU referendum has played right into the hands of Scottish nationalists. I also think that there is an argument for another independence referendum - with or without a Section 30 order - and I think that Scotland will vote for independence this time. Too much has changed and Westminster's handling of Brexit will result in many Scots voting for something new and refreshing. I'm fairly open-minded but I see and hear a lot of people talking about independence again.

I can also see a reunited Ireland within ten years or so. Ireland and Scotland will (re)join the EU leaving England and Wales in a fairly hapless position.

Sorry state of affairs.

[Alpacaman]

Edinburger said:

Ms Sturgeon is making a speech on "Brexit and Scotland's future" at 1:30 p.m. My bet is that she focuses on lines such as "Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against her will" and "not what Scotland voted for", etc., etc.

So exactly the same as she has been doing since the EU referendum?

Edinburger said:

The result of the EU referendum has played right into the hands of Scottish nationalists. I also think that there is an argument for another independence referendum - with or without a Section 30 order - and I think that Scotland will vote for independence this time. Too much has changed and Westminster's handling of Brexit will result in many Scots voting for something new and refreshing. I'm fairly open-minded but I see and hear a lot of people talking about independence again.

That is assuming you ignore the large number of Scottish nationalists who voted leave, presumably on the basis that they didn't want to leave one union to simply join another? Strange I haven't heard any rational arguments for another independence referendum, nor has anyone come up with a convincing argument as to why Scotland would be better off independent. As to holding one without a Section 30 order, it would have no legal basis and therefore the result would, rightly, be ignored. Having seen how hard leaving a union is I doubt many people would vote for something that was far more difficult and costly. I suspect Scots would vote for something new and refreshing, sadly the SNP and their independence plans are old and stale and past their sell by date. The only people I hear talking about independence are the SNP and the Greens, everyone else is sick to death of them rambling on about it.

Edinburger said:

I can also see a reunited Ireland within ten years or so. Ireland and Scotland will (re)join the EU leaving England and Wales in a fairly hapless position.

Sorry state of affairs.

I can't see a reunited Ireland anytime in the next 50 years but then I doubt the EU will survive that long anyway. Plus it would take at least that long for an independent Scotland to be in a stable enough position financially to have any hope of re-joining the EU even if they wanted to.

[andy_s]

Dinoboy said:

The biggest thing that Brexit has taught us(as if we didn't already know) is that Mp's across the board have been exposed as utterly self serving, hopeless short term thinkers who I wouldn't trust to take my dog for a walk.

Look what Brexit the dog did -

[andy_s]

Edinburger said:

Ms Sturgeon is making a speech on "Brexit and Scotland's future" at 1:30 p.m. My bet is that she focuses on lines such as "Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against her will" and "not what Scotland voted for", etc., etc.

Scotland was about to drag itself out of the EU and UK anyway as part of the cost of being independent. The line of logic is fallacious, the ramifications horrendous and the intent is duplicitous.

As above, we should learn the lesson - no politician is there to better anyone's lot except their own. This is no longer the cynical view but the proven one. Let's grow up.

[andy_s]

Alpacaman said:

I can't see a reunited Ireland anytime in the next 50 years

Was it not part of the GFA that a referendum would be held in 2025 and repeated every three years? Something I remember from the dim and distant, could be wrong [obviously!].

[Borghetto]

andy_s said:

Was it not part of the GFA that a referendum would be held in 2025 and repeated every three years? Something I remember from the dim and distant, could be wrong [obviously!].

I doubt Dublin would want reunification while a large percentage of the North is aganist. We've all seen how flexible the DUP is and I don't believe their core views will be changing anytime soon.

[simoid]

andy_s said:

Was it not part of the GFA that a referendum would be held in 2025 and repeated every three years? Something I remember from the dim and distant, could be wrong [obviously!].

That not the Edinburgh agreement?

[Alpacaman]

andy_s said:

Alpacaman said:

I can't see a reunited Ireland anytime in the next 50 years

Was it not part of the GFA that a referendum would be held in 2025 and repeated every three years? Something I remember from the dim and distant, could be wrong [obviously!].

I had not heard that, it could possibly be true, the fear would be if it created a fraction of the anger the Scottish one did, that it could be bad for peace in Ireland. Why on earth you would keep repeating it, if you don't believe what people tell you, why ask them?. There should be a law against repeating referenda within a set period (maybe once in a generation or a lifetime).

[simoid]

Alpacaman said:

andy_s said:

Alpacaman said:

I can't see a reunited Ireland anytime in the next 50 years

Was it not part of the GFA that a referendum would be held in 2025 and repeated every three years? Something I remember from the dim and distant, could be wrong [obviously!].

I had not heard that, it could possibly be true, the fear would be if it created a fraction of the anger the Scottish one did, that it could be bad for peace in Ireland. Why on earth you would keep repeating it, if you don't believe what people tell you, why ask them?. There should be a law against repeating referenda within a set period (maybe once in a generation or a lifetime).

From https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explaine... -

The UK Government has the power to call a referendum in Northern Ireland.

The Good Friday Agreement states that "the Secretary of State" should call a referendum "‘if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

[simoid]

Hears cries of “that graph is out of date! Brexit has changed everything about Ireland!”

[andy_s]

Thanks for the clarification simoid, I was getting conflated with the reports of a majority Catholic population by 2021 allied to the mechanism for a referendum as you pointed out.

[Edinburger]

Here we go - Ms Sturgeon said 'Indyref2' should take place "within this parliamentary term" once the Brexit path has been determined to allow an informed choice to be made.

Seems sensible to me.