Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 8

[biggbn]

Huge result for snp regardless of the independence question. I genuinely believe Boris Tories win should be respected and the mandate if gives them to carry out Brexit honoured. But not everyone who voted for them made it about Brexit. Pretty similar up here with snp. Anyone who voted for them and for whom imdependence is not a huge issue must surely know it IS for the party they are voting for. It is THE bedrock of that parties beliefs. Therefore, using the goose/gander rule, I would suggest this result gives SNP a decent shout at getting another indyref

[Evercross]

biggbn said:

Therefore, using the goose/gander rule, I would suggest this result gives SNP a decent shout at getting another indyref

Seriously? I'd like to hear your version of their path towards this rather than just a hunch?

• s.30 isn't happening for the next 5 years.
• 'Being dragged out of the EU against our will' expires as a soundbite in 49 days.
• 'Scotland does not meet the conditions for application as an EU member' becomes the official message from the EU Commission

The independence mountain just got a lot harder to climb and a wee shift in votes towards the SNP in a poll that wasn't all about independence by Nicola's own admission makes diddly squat difference to that.

Nicola's best hope was a hung parliament with the SNP as kingmakers. That's the prism this result should be viewed under. Many Scots voters read her intentions and interpreted them as SNP/Labour = same thing.

What she secretly hoped for was a deal with Labour for a fixed-date indyref (in the knowledge that Labour would not have been able to meet their timeline for renegotiation and a people's vote) and to get the indyref done before the Brexit date/revocation.

That ship has now sailed.

Edited by Evercross on Friday 13th December 14:52

[anonymous-user]

Is it possible that SNP are just using thread of 2nd ref as leverage to get other stuff devolved?

[biggbn]

Evercross said:

Seriously? I'd like to hear your version of their path towards this rather than just a hunch?

• s.30 isn't happening for the next 5 years.
• 'Being dragged out of the EU against our will' expires as a soundbite in 49 days.
• 'Scotland does not meet the conditions for application as an EU member' becomes the official message from the EU Commission

The independence mountain just got a lot harder to climb and a wee shift in votes towards the SNP in a poll that wasn't all about independence by Nicola's own admission makes diddly squat difference to that.

Nicola's best hope was a hung parliament with the SNP as kingmakers, which sent a message to many Scottish voters that SNP/Labour = same thing. That's the prism this result should be viewed under.

Edited by Evercross on Friday 13th December 14:44

Not an snp supporter man, voted none of the above due to their parlous state. Snp seem pretty strong up here for a party that is based around a single issue. I do not give a damn about Scotland staying in Europe, if pressed I am in favour of both brexit and independence, but these issues are never at the forefront of my thoughts.

[Evercross]

biggbn said:

Not an snp supporter man, voted none of the above due to their parlous state. Snp seem pretty strong up here for a party that is based around a single issue. I do not give a damn about Scotland staying in Europe, if pressed I am in favour of both brexit and independence, but these issues are never at the forefront of my thoughts.

That doesn't bring independence any closer though, which is what you said.

For many, voting SNP is still just a protest vote against Conservatism (Strocky hinted at that above).

[biggbn]

Evercross said:

biggbn said:

Not an snp supporter man, voted none of the above due to their parlous state. Snp seem pretty strong up here for a party that is based around a single issue. I do not give a damn about Scotland staying in Europe, if pressed I am in favour of both brexit and independence, but these issues are never at the forefront of my thoughts.

That doesn't bring independence any closer though, which is what you said.

For many, voting SNP is still just a protest vote against Conservatism (Strocky hinted at that above).

I said this result gives them a good shout at getting another indyref man, at least represent what I said correctly. Anyone who voted snp as a protest vote and did not see such a potentiality is surely not a the kind of tool I am likely to slice my finger on, are they?

There are many who voted Tory as there was no credible alternative. They will also have to suck up any policy implementation that they do not like, be it budget or brexit.

Edited by biggbn on Friday 13th December 15:02

[hotchy]

Theres still more people in scotland who did not vote for the SNP than did. Those numbers will show the true intentions of the people. I dont want indy2. Infact I'm sick to death of the constant uncertainty. If we leave the uk, I'm off to england.

[anonymous-user]

Sambucket said:

Is it possible that SNP are just using thread of 2nd ref as leverage to get other stuff devolved?

Absolutely.

The SNP don’t want another referendum at the moment. They know they’re not going to win. Better to look like Boris is stopping the will of the people.

I don’t think Salmond wanted one when Cameron called their bluff last time.

Boris should do the same.

[Evercross]

biggbn said:

I said this result gives them a good shout at getting another indyref man, at least represent what I said correctly.

Semantics. That takes them closer to achieving independence (which is what I said you said). Getting another indyref means that a s.30 order has been granted. Without that they are not getting independence - full stop.

[biggbn]

hotchy said:

Theres still more people in scotland who did not vote for the SNP than did. Those numbers will show the true intentions of the people. I dont want indy2. Infact I'm sick to death of the constant uncertainty. If we leave the uk, I'm off to england.

Regardless, the snp are the definitive party of power. And they are essentially, when you strip away any other rhetoric, a single issue party. It's kinda spelt out in their name.

[rossub]

biggbn said:

Huge result for snp regardless of the independence question. I genuinely believe Boris Tories win should be respected and the mandate if gives them to carry out Brexit honoured. But not everyone who voted for them made it about Brexit. Pretty similar up here with snp. Anyone who voted for them and for whom imdependence is not a huge issue must surely know it IS for the party they are voting for. It is THE bedrock of that parties beliefs. Therefore, using the goose/gander rule, I would suggest this result gives SNP a decent shout at getting another indyref

Not really. We’ll keep saying it - they only got 45% of the vote.

That 45% got them 81% of the seats
Pro Union parties got 54% of the vote, but 19% of the seats

Doesn’t look quite as good then does it?

[biggbn]

Evercross said:

biggbn said:

I said this result gives them a good shout at getting another indyref man, at least represent what I said correctly.

Semantics. That takes them closer to achieving independence (which is what I said you said). Getting another indyref means that a s.30 order has been granted. Without that they are not getting independence - full stop.

Disagree entirely, I think if they get another referendum they will.lose again. Scotland are not ready as a nation to take the step. Is it only semantics if a view doesn't agree with yours? And who defines 'meaning'? Semantics from one perspective does not give a holistic definition and it's not for one person to decide on anothers intent in usage or presentation.

[biggbn]

rossub said:

biggbn said:

Huge result for snp regardless of the independence question. I genuinely believe Boris Tories win should be respected and the mandate if gives them to carry out Brexit honoured. But not everyone who voted for them made it about Brexit. Pretty similar up here with snp. Anyone who voted for them and for whom imdependence is not a huge issue must surely know it IS for the party they are voting for. It is THE bedrock of that parties beliefs. Therefore, using the goose/gander rule, I would suggest this result gives SNP a decent shout at getting another indyref

Not really. We’ll keep saying it - they only got 45% of the vote.

That 45% got them 81% of the seats
Pro Union parties got 54% of the vote, but 19% of the seats

Doesn’t look quite as good then does it?

So our voting system is broken? And presumably broken throughout the country? How do we square this circle? I believe London, the most densely populated area, voted mostly remain and are mostly anti conservative? That huge populace would skew results using your simple %age measurents? I am not disrespecting your point, it makes sense to me, but what are our options

Edited by biggbn on Friday 13th December 15:13

[Big-Bo-Beep]

Big Easy said:

Yes, the DVLA is definitely the biggest issue to be considered. Scotland would obviously be incapable of taking over the fine work that they do and we'd have to revert to walking, maybe cycling if we can figure out how to maintain a bicycle.

Scotland is going to have to rely on the goodwill of the new UK for many years post separation, DVLA, Passports, Rail and Air accident investigations, what happens if a major air crash or rail accident happens in Scotland ? such independent infrastructures will take years to put in place.

Even something as simple as a on-track crane, Network Rail have none in Scotland.

[hidetheelephants]

Sambucket said:

Is it possible that SNP are just using thread of 2nd ref as leverage to get other stuff devolved?

I doubt it; look at the horlicks they've made from their devolved taxation, receipts are down because high earners are investing in the means of avoiding the increases.

[Leithen]

biggbn said:

So our voting system is broken? And presumably broken throughout the country? How do we square this circle? I believe London, the most densely populated area, voted mostly remain and are mostly anti conservative? That huge populace would skew results using your simple %age measurents? I am not disrespecting your point, it makes sense to me, but what are our options

Edited by biggbn on Friday 13th December 15:13

General Elections are useless at determining the will of the electorate on single issues.

If a party pretends to be a single issue party, but then attempts to control or influence other issues at the same time, it immediately removes any ability to use its electoral performance as an indicator of the original single issue.

If it then fails to get more than 50% of the votes counted at any election, it also destroys any credibility that it has a mandate for that single issue.

[Big Easy]

Big-Bo-Beep said:

Scotland is going to have to rely on the goodwill of the new UK for many years post separation, DVLA, Passports, Rail and Air accident investigations, what happens if a major air crash or rail accident happens in Scotland ? such independent infrastructures will take years to put in place.

Even something as simple as a on-track crane, Network Rail have none in Scotland.

I'm not denying that there would be a huge amount of work required if independence ever happened, though I don't believe that these matters are insurmountable.

[biggbn]

Leithen said:

biggbn said:

So our voting system is broken? And presumably broken throughout the country? How do we square this circle? I believe London, the most densely populated area, voted mostly remain and are mostly anti conservative? That huge populace would skew results using your simple %age measurents? I am not disrespecting your point, it makes sense to me, but what are our options

Edited by biggbn on Friday 13th December 15:13

General Elections are useless at determining the will of the electorate on single issues.

If a party pretends to be a single issue party, but then attempts to control or influence other issues at the same time, it immediately removes any ability to use its electoral performance as an indicator of the original single issue.

If it then fails to get more than 50% of the votes counted at any election, it also destroys any credibility that it has a mandate for that single issue.

That merely reidentifies the problem mentioned. Are there any solutions? I would suggest as essentially a single issue party, the snp do pretty well, particularly in comparison to farage's rabble.

[simoid]

Big Easy said:

Big-Bo-Beep said:

Scotland is going to have to rely on the goodwill of the new UK for many years post separation, DVLA, Passports, Rail and Air accident investigations, what happens if a major air crash or rail accident happens in Scotland ? such independent infrastructures will take years to put in place.

Even something as simple as a on-track crane, Network Rail have none in Scotland.

I'm not denying that there would be a huge amount of work required if independence ever happened, though I don't believe that these matters are insurmountable.

Or instead of spending all the time and money duplicating UK resources, we could spend that money on our schools and NHS and transport and stuff. Some sort of pooling and sharing of resources while we have our own politicians to spend our money...

Nah it’ll never catch on (and work fine for 300 years.)

[Leithen]

What's the current thinking on how long a generation is?