Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

[robm3]

Looks like the EU are consolidating their position!

All for one and one for all....

Any bets on what the amount is you end up paying?

I'm going in for 12 billion Euro.

[John145]

In 6 months time the cracks will appear in the EU's resolve. Any "motion" that takes 1 minute to get total approval to me sounds like some hooky democracy you'd see in Russia or East Asia.

Once the EU's self interest becomes apparent again the member states will revolt.

[Eddie Strohacker]

John145 said:

In 6 months time the cracks will appear in the EU's resolve. Any "motion" that takes 1 minute to get total approval to me sounds like some hooky democracy you'd see in Russia or East Asia.

Once the EU's self interest becomes apparent again the member states will revolt.

This is massively deluded. 27 of them, one of us is the major clue in their attitude to all this. Anyhow, let's see how preparations are going at the very top of government:

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/8588109533...

[powerstroke]

WTO please ,

[alock]

Even the BBC is now saying Macron says EU must reform or face 'Frexit'.

It could just be them trying not to lose too many voters, but it reminds me of how Cameron spoke before the 2015 election and the promises of a better deal.

[johnxjsc1985]

Eddie Strohacker said:

This is massively deluded. 27 of them, one of us is the major clue in their attitude to all this. Anyhow, let's see how preparations are going at the very top of government:

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/8588109533...

not at all the German Car makers Unions are already starting to make noises about job losses.The EU is already going to lose £12billion in our contributions losing our trade as well will affect many Countries. Common sense will prevail.

[///ajd]

powerstroke said:

WTO please ,

That would be a terrible outcome for the UK and the perfect outcome for a second referendum.

52% with WTO trade? I really suspect not.

It is hard to see how all sides won't aim for a deal. Ironically no deal really would prompt a rethink.

[CaptainSlow]

alock said:

Even the BBC is now saying Macron says EU must reform or face 'Frexit'.

It could just be them trying not to lose too many voters, but it reminds me of how Cameron spoke before the 2015 election and the promises of a better deal.

That's just him trying to gather up the floating voters, he'll forget he even said that in a month's time and will be a full time card carrying member of the gravy train.

[CaptainSlow]

///ajd said:

That would be a terrible outcome for the UK and the perfect outcome for a second referendum.

There won't be a second referendum.

[don'tbesilly]

CaptainSlow said:

///ajd said:

That would be a terrible outcome for the UK and the perfect outcome for a second referendum.

There won't be a second referendum.

///ajd is voting team Farron, I'd leave him in that 'special' place which looks like Disneyland on a good day.

[CaptainSlow]

don'tbesilly said:

CaptainSlow said:

///ajd said:

That would be a terrible outcome for the UK and the perfect outcome for a second referendum.

There won't be a second referendum.

///ajd is voting team Farron, I'd leave him in that 'special' place which looks like Disneyland on a good day.

Oh, I understand now. It's the referendum Farron will insist on using his 6 MPs to challenge the Government (Farron won't be going anywhere near Disneyland, a little too gay friendly for the Liberal leader).

[speedy_thrills]

Puggit said:

Rumour is that this bill will be paid in exchange for single market access

Very unlikely, the EU has tied the free movement of people and trade as issues. Might tie payment to the subsequent agreement being reached as leverage.

MYOB said:

I think the UK has to pay otherwise the EU will not allow its members to negotiate trade agreements with the UK after the "divorce".

Other way around, no way some nations are going to ratify a trade deal (look at what happened to the Canadian deal) without full payment. Each state can block a deal autonomously.

There will be a deal I expect, including full repayment of any amount the EU sees fit, but it might drag on to the eleventh hour or beyond and obviously it'll have to be a compromise.

[alock]

In a divorce, it is the financially weaker partner who typically get the assets and often additional cash payments. The EU wants the assets and additional payments.

Is the EU really this financially broken? Why does anyone think this makes the EU look strong? If the EU was such a great place, wouldn't they just say 'thanks and goodbye, we need to get on with processing the list of other countries who want to join.'

[gothatway]

According to http://bruegel.org/2017/02/the-uks-brexit-bill-cou..., the EU has assets worth ~EUR150Bn. How should they be divvied up ? Certainly not 1/28th to each member, as those members have been members for various lengths of time and made various levels of contribution towards obtaining those assets. Is there any fair way of sharing out that value other than on the basis of contributions made by each country since the EU began (or the EEC or ECSC for any assets inherited from them) ?

[jurbie]

johnxjsc1985 said:

Eddie Strohacker said:

This is massively deluded. 27 of them, one of us is the major clue in their attitude to all this. Anyhow, let's see how preparations are going at the very top of government:

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/8588109533...

not at all the German Car makers Unions are already starting to make noises about job losses.The EU is already going to lose £12billion in our contributions losing our trade as well will affect many Countries. Common sense will prevail.

You're right but so far it's only on the EU side, unless this is some genius negotiating strategy then May has shown she really doesn't have a clue.

We've been told that for 40 years the EU's tentacles have reached into all parts of British life which is why we have to leave but apparently not so much that we can just undo it all and walk away overnight. Delusional

[Eddie Strohacker]

Or our future is dependent on the welcome belligerence of German trade unions. Literally fantastical.

[Dogwatch]

jurbie said:

We've been told that for 40 years the EU's tentacles have reached into all parts of British life which is why we have to leave but apparently not so much that we can just undo it all and walk away overnight. Delusional

I reckon that realistically it'll take 5-10 years after Brexit to unwind the more malign EU legislation (shrieks of horror from the chattering classes) and re-establish ourselves as a State outside the EU. For a start Parliament, wherever it decamps to, will have to get used to initiating legislation and considering the consequences, not just rubber-stamping Brussels handouts.

[Pan Pan Pan]

gothatway said:

According to http://bruegel.org/2017/02/the-uks-brexit-bill-cou..., the EU has assets worth ~EUR150Bn. How should they be divvied up ? Certainly not 1/28th to each member, as those members have been members for various lengths of time and made various levels of contribution towards obtaining those assets. Is there any fair way of sharing out that value other than on the basis of contributions made by each country since the EU began (or the EEC or ECSC for any assets inherited from them) ?

If Brexit `is' a divorce as the EU have been describing it, the `usual' procedure is to examine who has put what, into the partnership over the years it has been in existence, and then try to make as equitable as possible settlement taking into account ALL assets that have been put in/taken out by each partner.
It just seems strange (but not surprising) that the EU seems to think this will be a one way exercise, where money/assets will only flow from the UK and into the EU. But considering this has been the case ever since the UK joined the EEC, again it is hardly surprising.

[amgmcqueen]

Shouldn't the EU be paying us to buy back our shares in this failed project?

This figure has been plucked out of Junckers arse and I will be bitterly disappointed if May pays them a single penny. I would also like to see the audited accounts of the EU to see where all our hard earned money has been pissed away over the years.

Seriously this whole corrupt lot need throwing into the sea while the real business leaders of all nations come together to strike real trade deals that will affect the lives of millions. What we don't need is the likes of Juncker/Tusk/Merkel giving it the billy big bks over their bruised ego's.

[paulrockliffe]

If you believe the EU rhetoric then we won't be paying a penny, we'll be leaving without any agreement at all. There's no way we'll agree to the Gibraltar nonsense, that a reunified Ireland is in the EU, that the City of London is excluded from any trade agreements and then to give them a barrow load of cash too.

It'll be interesting to see whether the EU have backed themselves into a corner they can't move out of, or whether they're able to back down and come to a sensible arrangement.