Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

[mx5nut]

s2art said:

Roboraver said:

Sorry but I must sound like a broken record.

Until the N.I border issue is resolved (still no valid solutions I might add) then brexit will not happen. Simples.

Dream on. A fudge will be found.

Absolutely. The fudge will be "Brexit In Name Only", and happen as soon as they come up with a way to sell it to the general public

[JagLover]

Jockman said:

jsf said:

There were two choices, continue down the path of EU integration or leave and rebuild the UK as an independent nation state.

These are my sentiments but I think the majority of brexit voters did not think like this.

Maybe not but that was the implied consequences of their actions.

It all came back to sovereignty, whether you wanted to make certain changes to our own welfare system, whether you wanted better control over our borders, whether you wanted the ability to make our own free trade deals. The basic problem was that the only way voters had to gain control over any of these issues (and many more besides) was a Brexit vote. No GE vote could deliver it due to power already handed over to Brussels.

[JagLover]

Roboraver said:

Sorry but I must sound like a broken record.

Until the N.I border issue is resolved (still no valid solutions I might add) then brexit will not happen. Simples.

I'd say it is more likely that we will leave without a deal due to the NI situation.

[PurpleMoonlight]

s2art said:

Dream on. A fudge will be found.

As likely will apply to the whole of Brexit.

[Robertj21a]

Roboraver said:

Sorry but I must sound like a broken record.

Until the N.I border issue is resolved (still no valid solutions I might add) then brexit will not happen. Simples.

Not 'Simples' at all. We will be leaving the EU, regardless of how the Irish issue is resolved/fudged.

[ClaphamGT3]

Roboraver said:

Sorry but I must sound like a broken record.

Until the N.I border issue is resolved (still no valid solutions I might add) then brexit will not happen. Simples.

I would agree. Of the 'Big Four' brexit issues. This is shaping up to be the most intractable.

[V8 Fettler]

Good opportunity to re-unite Ireland.

[johnxjsc1985]

V8 Fettler said:

Good opportunity to re-unite Ireland.

more chance of the rest of the UK becoming part of a united Ireland. N.I is part of the UK although it seems the EU seem to forget this and only talk of "Ireland".
Lets see who blinks first because this negotiation has somehow come down to this.

[s2art]

V8 Fettler said:

Good opportunity to re-unite Ireland.

At what cost? The UK is overwhelmingly the biggest trade partner of the ROI and NI. You would put then on the wrong side of a customs border to their main trade partner?

[PurpleMoonlight]

s2art said:

At what cost? The UK is overwhelmingly the biggest trade partner of the ROI and NI. You would put then on the wrong side of a customs border to their main trade partner?

Like the UK and EU you mean?

[CrutyRammers]

Mrr T said:

Whist I had always been concerned about a lack of democracy in the EU the referendum made me reconsider the issue. When I did I had to conclude that whist the EU may not be democratic it was difficult to complain since I already lived in one of the least democratic countries in Europe.

With about 400 seats so safe they will never change hands. The fact is less than 25% (in a close election 7%) of voters will decide the government. With a second chamber made up of those who gained favour with a king several hundred years ago, and a majority who’s only qualification is years of sucking at the public teat. Where is takes 7% more voters of one party to elect an MP than the other (thanks TM for losing the boundary review).

Maybe we should have sorted out the UK.

We are. Leaving the eu is the first step along the way.

[dromong]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Roboraver said:

Sorry but I must sound like a broken record.

Until the N.I border issue is resolved (still no valid solutions I might add) then brexit will not happen. Simples.

I would agree. Of the 'Big Four' brexit issues. This is shaping up to be the most intractable.

Byssaceous, fibrous, unsubstantiated asseverations as ever I heard , You know nothing more of how the future will eventuate than I do.

When you purchased your crystal ball did you expressly order the parti pris version?, because that's the one you got, (and owned by a few of the immutable Snothackers that reside herein.

[frisbee]

mx5nut said:

Absolutely. The fudge will be "Brexit In Name Only", and happen as soon as they come up with a way to sell it to the general public

Brilliant I can so see that happening, the Bretards will manage to claim we have left while we still pay all the costs of membership but loosing any influence over the EU's direction.

I wonder if we'll get to keep the Union Jack or whether they'll even manage to negotiate us having to the use the European flag?

[V8 Fettler]

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

Good opportunity to re-unite Ireland.

At what cost? The UK is overwhelmingly the biggest trade partner of the ROI and NI. You would put then on the wrong side of a customs border to their main trade partner?

NI currently costs the rest of the UK about £7 billion per annum, so there's a potential cost saving

https://www.quora.com/How-much-do-Scotland-Wales-N...

Aren't these proposed new borders primarily about keeping the immigrants out?

[s2art]

PurpleMoonlight said:

s2art said:

At what cost? The UK is overwhelmingly the biggest trade partner of the ROI and NI. You would put then on the wrong side of a customs border to their main trade partner?

Like the UK and EU you mean?

Not even close. Take a look at the average tariffs of the trade. For Ireland to the UK they would(could) face the large tariffs on agricultural products. The UK would average approx 3% average tariffs with the EU. Approx 75% of NI trade is with the rest of the UK. Approx 40% of UK trade is with the rest of the EU.

[s2art]

V8 Fettler said:

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

Good opportunity to re-unite Ireland.

At what cost? The UK is overwhelmingly the biggest trade partner of the ROI and NI. You would put then on the wrong side of a customs border to their main trade partner?

NI currently costs the rest of the UK about £7 billion per annum, so there's a potential cost saving

https://www.quora.com/How-much-do-Scotland-Wales-N...

Aren't these proposed new borders primarily about keeping the immigrants out?

I meant at what cost to the ROI sand NI.

[BlackLabel]

Looks like a deal has been done.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/u...

[HD Adam]

Could?

It's a definite maybe then?

[richie99]

s2art said:

At what cost? The UK is overwhelmingly the biggest trade partner of the ROI and NI. You would put then on the wrong side of a customs border to their main trade partner?

I know this thread is about the bill but worth mentioning that the ROI trade with the UK is about 17% of its GDP. Roughly the same as Belgium. I didn't believe it when I first saw it reported so I checked. The 40% figure often reported is for trade in agricultural products (I think).

[The Mad Monk]

robm3 said:

This is going to be interesting. I see there's also a £2-3b potential bill for 'failing to crack down' on duty fraud.

In the grand scheme of things, that is peanuts.

We have got to move on. A bad trade deal is infinitely better than no trade deal.