Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

[Smollet]

The Mad Monk said:

We have got to move on. A bad trade deal is infinitely better than no trade deal.

Surely no trade deal is a bad trade deal.

[768]

Smollet said:

The Mad Monk said:

We have got to move on. A bad trade deal is infinitely better than no trade deal.

Surely no trade deal is a bad trade deal.

No, it's not a trade deal. It leaves us without restrictions that could be in a bad trade deal and still leaves us open to continuing to negotiate a trade deal with the EU, in a political environment that wouldn't have the pressure of being tied up with exiting the EU. It may well be easier to negotiate an improved situation for both parties from a point of having no deal than for both sides to try and win something from where we are now.

[g7orge]

768 said:

Smollet said:

The Mad Monk said:

We have got to move on. A bad trade deal is infinitely better than no trade deal.

Surely no trade deal is a bad trade deal.

No, it's not a trade deal. It leaves us without restrictions that could be in a bad trade deal and still leaves us open to continuing to negotiate a trade deal with the EU, in a political environment that wouldn't have the pressure of being tied up with exiting the EU. It may well be easier to negotiate an improved situation for both parties from a point of having no deal than for both sides to try and win something from where we are now.

I agree

[Pan Pan Pan]

Given that the UK has been a net contributor of funds into the EU for almost the entire time it has been a member, it should not have to pay the EU anything to leave. But since the EU is a corrupt money grasping organization, we cannot expect fairness in the way the EU deals with the UK`s exit. Given this, paying a bill pf 40 to 50 billion pounds as a one off payment to get out of the whole stinking mess seems like a bargain, especially as it cost the UK 88 billion pounds to be in the EU for just 2016 alone.

[Roboraver]

You do realise a "no deal" means WTO and a hard border ?

[mx5nut]

Pan Pan Pan said:

especially as it cost the UK 88 billion pounds to be in the EU for just 2016 alone.

Just wait until you see the bill for replicating everything we lose once we've left

[Burwood]

mx5nut said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

especially as it cost the UK 88 billion pounds to be in the EU for just 2016 alone.

Just wait until you see the bill for replicating everything we lose once we've left

It will be worth it for a lot of people. The EU prove that point every day

[Pan Pan Pan]

mx5nut said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

especially as it cost the UK 88 billion pounds to be in the EU for just 2016 alone.

Just wait until you see the bill for replicating everything we lose once we've left

Wont be a problem since we will have an immediate 88 billion pounds to spend on bringing UK businesses up to speed.

[Robertj21a]

Burwood said:

It will be worth it for a lot of people. The EU prove that point every day

Seems that the 'lot of people' who feel all this cost and silliness will be worth it may be increasing all the time too !
If the costs are broadly in line with what is being suggested it sounds like a good bargain. Perhaps our negotiating team aren't as stupid as many like to suggest.

[Zod]

digimeistter said:

Not really the opposite, i stand by what I said, they are preparing for WTO in earnest

Really? I thought they'd abandoned the lorry park plan.

[Zod]

Pan Pan Pan said:

it cost the UK 88 billion pounds to be in the EU for just 2016 alone.

Really now? Explain, please.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Zod said:

digimeistter said:

Not really the opposite, i stand by what I said, they are preparing for WTO in earnest

Really? I thought they'd abandoned the lorry park plan.

The lorry parks will mainly be for HGV`s trying to return to the EU after dumping their 71 billion pounds worth of goods, above what the UK sells into the EU, only without the UK having to pay an extra 12 billion pounds for the privilege of letting the EU do this.

[alfie2244]

When do we get an itemised breakdown of how the ransom figure (whatever the final amount ends up) has been arrived at?

[MDMetal]

50 billion euros divided by 70 odd million is 714 euros each, it's not exactly mental is it? Clearly it would be nicer to be less but even at 20 billion we'd be paying 300 euros each or so

[TooMany2cvs]

V8 Fettler said:

Aren't these proposed new borders primarily about keeping the immigrants out?

No - that's the least of it. RoI isn't Schengen, so passports need to be shown to get into RoI. Nobody's suggesting EU nationals won't be able to enter the UK freely, perhaps only as tourists, but... The CTA free movement of people only applies to Irish nationals and UK nationals, not to any other EU nationals.

It's all about trade. If the UK leaves the single market, then there needs to be a customs line of some kind between the UK and the EU. That's easy at ports where there's passport control - but much harder with a long, wiggly, rural land border. The only place there's a land border is between NI and RoI. There's no passport control there because of the CTA, and somewhat less than zero political desire for any.

There can't be any kind of customs border between RoI and the rest of the EU - because they're single market.
There can't be any kind of customs border between NI and GB - because they're both part of the same country, the UK.
There must be some kind of customs border between NI and RoI - because RoI is single market, UK isn't.

Yet, apparently, there can't be any kind of customs border between NI and RoI - because we've said so.

So what gives? Something has to. Otherwise there's single-market-membership by the back door. Anybody in Germany or Poland or Romania or Spain who wants to trade with the UK without doing any kind of customs/tariffs/duties will simply do so through RoI.

This has been blatantly obvious all along... Agreeing the numbers was the easy bit - last night's "We'll pay what we owe, and what we need to pay, and no more" is really just what May's been saying for months - and no different to what the EU27 have been saying for even longer. Next up - not shafting people who've already moved between UK and EU27... That shouldn't be hard, either. Then we can get on to the tricky stuff - the trade agreements.

[Pan Pan Pan]

MDMetal said:

50 billion euros divided by 70 odd million is 714 euros each, it's not exactly mental is it? Clearly it would be nicer to be less but even at 20 billion we'd be paying 300 euros each or so

Whilst I feel that given the UKs net contributions into the EU for over 40 years it should not be paying anything as a ransom fee to get out of the whole stinking mess, a one off, final payment of 40 to 50 billion to get out seems like a bargain, compared to just one year of what the UK has to pay to be in the EU.

[wc98]

CrutyRammers said:

Mrr T said:

Whist I had always been concerned about a lack of democracy in the EU the referendum made me reconsider the issue. When I did I had to conclude that whist the EU may not be democratic it was difficult to complain since I already lived in one of the least democratic countries in Europe.

With about 400 seats so safe they will never change hands. The fact is less than 25% (in a close election 7%) of voters will decide the government. With a second chamber made up of those who gained favour with a king several hundred years ago, and a majority who’s only qualification is years of sucking at the public teat. Where is takes 7% more voters of one party to elect an MP than the other (thanks TM for losing the boundary review).

Maybe we should have sorted out the UK.

We are. Leaving the eu is the first step along the way.

i strongly agree with both you and mrr t here. the first step to sorting out our own issues is to reduce the number of politicians and bureaucrats that have any effect upon us from afar. now the "because eu" excuse will no longer be an option the feet of our own lot should be a little closer to the fire.

[Camoradi]

MDMetal said:

50 billion euros divided by 70 odd million is 714 euros each, it's not exactly mental is it? Clearly it would be nicer to be less but even at 20 billion we'd be paying 300 euros each or so

I shouldn't have to pay 714 euros. I didn't have wine or a starter!

[captain_cynic]

Zod said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

it cost the UK 88 billion pounds to be in the EU for just 2016 alone.

Really now? Explain, please.

1. Ignore any figures from official sources.
2. Take a deep breath.
3. Try to touch your toes.
4. Exhale.
5. Bend over further as you inhale.
6. Extract a scary number from your backside
7. Divide it into the largest sounding number.
8. Paint on bus.

For the rest of us, Table C 3 is useful.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploa...

[captain_cynic]

wc98 said:

i strongly agree with both you and mrr t here. the first step to sorting out our own issues is to reduce the number of politicians and bureaucrats that have any effect upon us from afar. now the "because eu" excuse will no longer be an option the feet of our own lot should be a little closer to the fire.

The thing is, leaving the EU will increase the bureaucracy and number of Jobsworths politicians here in the UK. All the functions currently done by the EU will need to be done here in the UK and to be frank, as bad and inefficient as the EU is, the UK is worse at it.

Over the last few years, the crazy decisions have come from Whitehall, not Brussels. I.E. the conservatives want to censor the internet (because torrents are evil), Brussels says that's a bad thing (yet we ended up with DNS filters anyway, so, so much for the European Dictators having any power over us).