Snap General Election?
Discussion
Mojooo said:
At the end of the day if the cap is say 400k (i.e for a 500k house you must payback 400k and keep 100k) it will still wipe out most normal people - and of course if it is capped it only helps the rich!
What is the average cost of social care though - especially home care?I found this diagram which suggests the average care cost for somebody 85+ is around £11-12k
link to the report
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/blog/2015/11/social-c...
If this is true - the likelihood of somebody incurring £400k worth of home care costs is negligible. I have seen estimates for residential care costing around £40k per year if nursing is required (£30k per year if nursing is not required), so you would need 10+ years of residential care to incur £400k worth of cost - but again, people with properties are already subject to the full cost of residential care anyway and with a much lower floor level under the current system.
Home care costs (based on 14 hours per week) are estimated to be around 1/3rd that of residential care - so to rack up £400k worth of home care - you'd need to have that care for for ~36 years. I suspect most elderly people will require care for rather less time than that.
Edited by Moonhawk on Monday 22 May 23:53
I'll just put this here, an analysis this evening from that bastion of right wing thinking and Tory support, Channel 4 News.
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/is-theresa...
May has had a terrible few days, there is no doubt.
But she is still going to win with a large majority.
For it to win a majority Labour needs Scotland to completely change its tack, and the only way Scotland seems to be changing is going from Yellow to Blue in a few targetted seats. Labour has no chance in Scotland.
In turn poor old Jezzer really is going to to eviscerated by Andrew Neil who has already warmed up his "IRA supporter" questioning line in previous interviews with Labour party members stupid enough to volunteer to take one for the Party. We have seen how well the intellectually challenged labour leader is at controlling his temper and responses when he isn't being adored by his followers and instead gets some robust questioning.
I wouldn't be surprised if he just walks out when push comes to shove.
And then we have the Labour Magic Money tree. Andrew will have some fun with their Spending and Funding plans.
Someone said some pages back that perhaps the Tory wobble was a plan all along to get their vote out.
It will probably work if it was.
Cheers,
Tony
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/is-theresa...
May has had a terrible few days, there is no doubt.
But she is still going to win with a large majority.
For it to win a majority Labour needs Scotland to completely change its tack, and the only way Scotland seems to be changing is going from Yellow to Blue in a few targetted seats. Labour has no chance in Scotland.
In turn poor old Jezzer really is going to to eviscerated by Andrew Neil who has already warmed up his "IRA supporter" questioning line in previous interviews with Labour party members stupid enough to volunteer to take one for the Party. We have seen how well the intellectually challenged labour leader is at controlling his temper and responses when he isn't being adored by his followers and instead gets some robust questioning.
I wouldn't be surprised if he just walks out when push comes to shove.
And then we have the Labour Magic Money tree. Andrew will have some fun with their Spending and Funding plans.
Someone said some pages back that perhaps the Tory wobble was a plan all along to get their vote out.
It will probably work if it was.
Cheers,
Tony
Garvin said:
...
What is wrong with being nervous in front of a camera? What does it fundamentally change regarding the content?
...
For you and I, in theory, not much. But what about your average Britain's Got Talent/Jeremy Kyle viewer? Most people in the street?What is wrong with being nervous in front of a camera? What does it fundamentally change regarding the content?
...
And that pre-supposes there was strong content. There wasn't.
Tony427 said:
...
In turn poor old Jezzer really is going to to eviscerated by Andrew Neil who has already warmed up his "IRA supporter" questioning line in previous interviews with Labour party members stupid enough to volunteer to take one for the Party. We have seen how well the intellectually challenged labour leader is at controlling his temper and responses when he isn't being adored by his followers and instead gets some robust questioning.
...
I don't know enough about the fella as tbh I've just dismissed him as an irrelevance and a ticket for the Conservatives. But.In turn poor old Jezzer really is going to to eviscerated by Andrew Neil who has already warmed up his "IRA supporter" questioning line in previous interviews with Labour party members stupid enough to volunteer to take one for the Party. We have seen how well the intellectually challenged labour leader is at controlling his temper and responses when he isn't being adored by his followers and instead gets some robust questioning.
...
Some of the line of questioning he will face is pretty obvious and I reckon with some prep he could make a fist of it to at least hold his ground. But he'll need to be on his toes.
The IRA thing...times move on. Governments subsequent to his views appreciated the value of talking latterly to get some peace on the table and you don't get that by simply calling everyone a d
head etc etc. There's mileage in there to dismiss it as the ends justify the means and to note that he's moved on. Waste 15mins on that and that's 15mins less substantive stuff to talk about.Figures...assuming they have actually done some tricky sums, they just need to be more polished and avoid getting dragged in to too many exactitudes. Hammering the rich will resonate as few people regard themselves as rich. Just avoid setting a number/getting dragged into calculations. Keep it to percentiles etc.
I wouldn't bet money on him coming out on top, but you just never know. There's so much obvious flak he could get hit with that it may waste enough time for him to come out OK.
smn159 said:
PurpleAki said:
Rather that than a snake oil salesman and actor like Blair.
What she does behind closed doors is what matters, not being a publicity puppet.
Like deciding policy with just a handful of close advisors, not thinking through the consequences and leaving her cabinet colleagues hanging out to dry on the Sunday shows when she changes her mind at the first hint of dissent?What she does behind closed doors is what matters, not being a publicity puppet.
Yep, strong and stable.?
MarshPhantom said:
smn159 said:
PurpleAki said:
Rather that than a snake oil salesman and actor like Blair.
What she does behind closed doors is what matters, not being a publicity puppet.
Like deciding policy with just a handful of close advisors, not thinking through the consequences and leaving her cabinet colleagues hanging out to dry on the Sunday shows when she changes her mind at the first hint of dissent?What she does behind closed doors is what matters, not being a publicity puppet.
Yep, strong and stable.?
Somehow. I doubt it.
Vaud said:
PurpleAki said:
Still want to sit down and have a cup of tea with ISIS Jeremy?
Roughly my view. I'm not Mays biggest fan, but I have more faith in the Tory law and order system and position against terrorists than the shambles of an opposition.Official campaigning by the main political Parties has been suspended due to events. Those events will have several repercussions.
Justayellowbadge said:
Dementia tax won't be getting any coverage now.
Terrorist sympathizer going to be a hard position to justify though.
Terrorist sympathizer going to be a hard position to justify though.
turbobloke said:
Just watched a vid and read a summary of the Brillo interview with May.
She did well under the circumstances, given that it was self-inflicted.
Naturally, The Guardian thinks she 'struggled'.
Also online, the BBC are having a pop but less aggressivly than the red rag.
There was one tiny ray of impartiality in the beeb report when they included this:
"In her interview, with the BBC's Andrew Neil, Mrs May denied this (was a u-turn) and said the principle the policy was based on remained absolutely the same"
On which point she's correct, but it was still self-inflicted.
Yes Turbo, I was surprised the Beeb were relatively easy on TM, pleasant surprise and makes a change. She did well under the circumstances, given that it was self-inflicted.
Naturally, The Guardian thinks she 'struggled'.
Also online, the BBC are having a pop but less aggressivly than the red rag.
There was one tiny ray of impartiality in the beeb report when they included this:
"In her interview, with the BBC's Andrew Neil, Mrs May denied this (was a u-turn) and said the principle the policy was based on remained absolutely the same"
On which point she's correct, but it was still self-inflicted.
They obviously know she'll win, and their arses are on the line
Northbloke said:
And this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the dynamics as well. The silent majority were silenced by shouty Lefty types on social media and in the MSM but voted for their preferred candidate anyway. So if anything, if the trend in those events is followed it will be worse for Labour than the polls not better.
And I'm amazed that the same failed shouty tactics are still being used as evidenced by yet more Celebs popping out telling us how to think (Danny Devito!), the new arrivals on here flirting with sanity plus the dismal Trump thread where the consistently wrong carry on being consistently wrong. They try to play the "I'm considerably cleverer than yow" card yet haven't learnt a thing themselves.
Because most of them are brainless fAnd I'm amazed that the same failed shouty tactics are still being used as evidenced by yet more Celebs popping out telling us how to think (Danny Devito!), the new arrivals on here flirting with sanity plus the dismal Trump thread where the consistently wrong carry on being consistently wrong. They try to play the "I'm considerably cleverer than yow" card yet haven't learnt a thing themselves.
kwits. Moonhawk said:
What is the average cost of social care though - especially home care?
Social Care CalculatorSo where I live, it's about £40k per year for residential care, £19k per year for home care (based on 3 hours per day which is basically getting 3 meals cooked for you).
I think the residential care figure is without nursing, for which you can add another £10k pa
wiggy001 said:
Moonhawk said:
What is the average cost of social care though - especially home care?
Social Care CalculatorSo where I live, it's about £40k per year for residential care, £19k per year for home care (based on 3 hours per day which is basically getting 3 meals cooked for you).
I think the residential care figure is without nursing, for which you can add another £10k pa
What I was looking for is the average care cost per elderly person - which is a function of the type of care they need and the average length of time they need it for.
just a thought but how many of these "elderly" people could be looked after either in their homes or at the homes of family members as used to be the norm some years ago. Grand Parents used to regularly move in with a son or daughter and I know this is a different time but maybe paying families to take care of elderly at home may be cheaper in the long run and better also for the families.
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