Snap General Election?

[confused_buyer]

skahigh said:

My thoughts exactly, they got somewhere in the region of 4 million votes last time out, my money is on them getting around a quarter of that.

Absolutely and it is where that vote goes which will dictate the outcome of this election. I can't see many switching to the LibDems (even though, believe it or not some came from the LibDems) and your typical UKIP voters does not like Corbyn. Therefore I reckon they will either not vote or will vote Conservative.

Which they do will dictate the overall result.

[sidicks]

skahigh said:

confused_buyer said:

I think UKIP will get less than that and I suspect a big chunk of their vote will go directly to the Conservatives. This will put a big damper on the LibDems in many of their target seats as there are large UKIP votes in a lot of them looking for a home.

My thoughts exactly, they got somewhere in the region of 4 million votes last time out, my money is on them getting around a quarter of that.

I think for many people UKIP were primarily supported as a means of applying pressure for an EU referendum. Now that has happened (and as far as they are concerned, has succeeded) then I think their support will diminish significantly.

[turbobloke]

The Hypno-Toad said:

confused_buyer said:

Goldsmith has a good chance of taking Richmond. The LibDems will not be able to chuck their entire national resources into one seat as they will be needed elsewhere and Goldsmith will have the backing of the Conservative party machine this time.

Olney has a majority of 1800 which isn't a big buffer.

I certainly hope so. I remember her hopeless interview the day after the election where she was so flustered she had to go off to her "safe place" and handed her phone to an unnamed minder. Has she even made her maiden speech yet?

Was that the same interview when her minder basically pulled her off the mic and out of the studio? Stunning.

[Hayek]

Don said:

NJH said:

That is a revision of history really. One can't really blame Labour for the crash although many seem to swallow that one, up to that point they had 2 big problems that turned people against them in their droves:
1) Taking us into a war on a pack of lies, and then over-stretching us into another war that was impossible to win
2) Thousands of new laws backed up by increasingly petty fining of people that has made being slightly 'criminalised' normal, a very bad road to go down.

Both of those things got peoples blood boiling.

Except Blair got re-elected. At the time they'd have kept re-electing him ad infinitum. It was Brown and the crash that opened the door for the coalition.

Since then the public opinion on Blair is that of a war criminal. But so much came out afterwards. Blair could never be re-elected now.

But a Blairite Government, free of his taint, "Left Lite" would be a strong challenger against Mrs May's Tories, perhaps not now, but in 2022 its quite a possibility. So long as Corbyn keeps the party properly crazy, though, we won't have to worry about that.

FYI Cameron/May Tories are the Blairite government now. Blairism won't get the Labour party anywhere as the Tories are better at it and better funded.

[FiF]

turbobloke said:

confused_buyer said:

turbobloke said:

Nor do I, and it's the perception of a one-trick-pony that keeps UKIP from making further inroads, copying that fail will lead to...the same thing. Both Parties at around 10%-12% in June wouldn't surprise me.

I think UKIP will get less than that and I suspect a big chunk of their vote will go directly to the Conservatives. This will put a big damper on the LibDems in many of their target seats as there are large UKIP votes in a lot of them looking for a home.

I wouldn't be surprised if the LibDems pick up some seats in London (Vince Cable stands a good chance IMO) but I think they'll lose Richmond and might struggle to hold seats in places like Southport where they have a 1300 majority over the Conservatives but there were 7000+ UKIP votes in 2015.

Fair points. Hopefully my geographical neighbours in the SW will hold on to common sense and not allow the LDs to return. That regional wipe-out was most satisfying.

Lot of polling evidence coming in that UKIP vote in 2015GE is flooding back to Cons.

For the moment I'm sticking with my view of about 60-65 seat gain from combination of collapse in Labour vote and UKIP ditto.

Lib Dems will gain, but not as many as they thought. Still with initiatives like targeting the votes of EU citizens who : cough: aren't allowed to vote aiui, they'll do as well as we expect / hope. Can't believe I used to vote for these Muppets way back.

[Eddie Strohacker]

Tory landslide, no question. Not sure what the Lib Dems have set as an overall target, but you'd hope it's more than eight

Labour dead as disco.

[Likes Fast Cars]

FiF said:

Lot of polling evidence coming in that UKIP vote in 2015GE is flooding back to Cons.

For the moment I'm sticking with my view of about 60-65 seat gain from combination of collapse in Labour vote and UKIP ditto.

Lib Dems will gain, but not as many as they thought. Still with initiatives like targeting the votes of EU citizens who : cough: aren't allowed to vote aiui, they'll do as well as we expect / hope. Can't believe I used to vote for these Muppets way back.

That would make sense since a lot (but not all) of the UKIP voters were Conservatives wanting Brexit.

You're forgiven for voting for the muppets, you were obviously young & silly back then

[mx-6]

Hayek said:

FYI Cameron/May Tories are the Blairite government now. Blairism won't get the Labour party anywhere as the Tories are better at it and better funded.

I can't say I agree with that, I think a good Blairite Labour leader would potentially be electable (though whether the Labour membership would elect such a leader is debateable). Cameron was something of a centre-right successor to Blair it's true, especially in the earlier hug-a-hoody days, but in my view May is definitely to the right of Cameron based on what I've seen and heard thus far. To me she now has has a politically right stance on Brexit, plus there's the Grammar schools thing, and she seem more authoritarian on security and civil liberties.

Edited by mx-6 on Thursday 27th April 10:57

[Fastdruid]

Winning the Election is just not important to Labour any more.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017...

IMO they are going to be absolutely decimated.

[mx-6]

El stovey said:

turbobloke said:

Not forgetting the dour unoriginal insults regularly seen from left field, regardless of rare invitations to fisticuffs.

The thing about PH is that, unlike many alternative non-motoring media, the mods are looking at posting rules rather than ideology. This can at times give an impression there is more leeway given to 'tolerrant forms of expression' from the Left for the sake of some well-meaning aim for 'balance' gicen there are some posts that are trolling by any other name but remain on threads anyway. Not everyone will appreciate this but it's not our ball and the rules are enforced how mods see fit.

So basically, more insulting angry right wingers get banned and posts removed than left wingers because the mods, despite not being ideologically motivated, do it due to a well meaning attempt to balance the threads?

It's not evidence that right wingers are throwing around insults worthy of a ban though, it somehow shows the lefties are more insulting, even though much less of them ever get banned?

Is it perhaps possible that more right wingers get banned from threads as they're simply being more insulting?

Obviously it's also to do with the underhand lefties being a bit dishonourable and telling tales and trying to control people's freedom and impose political correctness on people all the time.

Turbobloke, if you were a leftie, you'd be known as the biggest lefty, never back downer, have the last worder in the forum. It's just because you're slightly right of the main right wing flow that you don't get insulted all the time by the masses. You're in the in group.

The lefties here aren't even mainly proper lefties. They're just pinkos, most are probably still conservatives or at best floating voters, I wish we did have some proper lefties on here. It wouldn't be much fun though for them with everyone shouting them down all the time and then getting accused of insulting people and wanting the last word.

In my view it's not a case of whether right or left wingers are more insulting than the other, I think it's generally fairly balanced. It's often more a case that the more extreme a persons views, on any issue not just politics, the less tolerant and open minded towards others they can tend to be. They often see their view as "correct" and the opposing view as "wrong", even when we're just talking about an arbitary opinion.

[Vaud]

Fastdruid said:

Winning the Election is just not important to Labour any more.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017...

IMO they are going to be absolutely decimated.

I have been on the periphery of a Union issue recently.

No names, no pack drill but it general quite a moderate and reasonable union who do a pretty good job for their members (I don't think they actually need a union but that is a separate point)

There is a minor change point being discussed (and it is genuinely minor) and the local chapter is in chaos - it has been infiltrated (their words) by a hard line trotskyite group who in their words "just want to cause disruption - not negotiate"

This new core don't give a stuff about their members - they just want to abuse their negotiating position for the sake of 6th form level politics. The difference being, the 6th formers are both better debaters and better negotiators.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Fastdruid said:

Winning the Election is just not important to Labour any more.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017...

IMO they are going to be absolutely decimated.

I can't wait for 8 June

[turbobloke]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Fastdruid said:

Winning the Election is just not important to Labour any more.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017...

IMO they are going to be absolutely decimated.

I can't wait for 8 June

Then there's the 9th which also ought to be worth waiting for

[skahigh]

Fastdruid said:

Winning the Election is just not important to Labour any more.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017...

IMO they are going to be absolutely decimated.

Fascinating read, thanks for sharing.

[Likes Fast Cars]

turbobloke said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Fastdruid said:

Winning the Election is just not important to Labour any more.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017...

IMO they are going to be absolutely decimated.

I can't wait for 8 June

Then there's the 9th which also ought to be worth waiting for

Absa-bloody-lutely! a non-working day, get totally plastered!

[anonymous-user]

skahigh said:

Fastdruid said:

Winning the Election is just not important to Labour any more.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017...

IMO they are going to be absolutely decimated.

Fascinating read, thanks for sharing.

The article said.

"The electoralist goals of Labour would always conflict with the goals of regrowing the grassroots, winning socialist arguments."

This is the key point. Labour is becoming a socialist protest movement. It's goals aren't to be in power. They want to become a far left ideology. An idea rather than MPs engaging in running the country.

If (new) labour MPs and candidates want to win an election or even survive and not get sent to the front on Corby Stalinist purges. They need to split the parliamentary Labour Party from the rest. I expect this election will be the stimulus. Not sure where they are going to get funding from without the unions though.

There is certainly a gap now in British politics for a centrist left party. Perhaps May will occupy this ground with her talk of fairer society? Perhaps the gap is actually also to the right of the conservatives now?

[Digga]

El stovey said:

This is the key point. Labour is becoming a socialist protest movement. It's goals aren't to be in power. They want to become a far left ideology. An idea rather than MPs engaging in running the country...

There is certainly a gap now in British politics for a centrist left party. Perhaps May will occupy this ground with her talk of fairer society? Perhaps the gap is actually also to the right of the conservatives now?

Not that, in the past, Labour have done a sterling job in government, but of late, they don't even begin to show a semblance of making a mess of things. It is almost as though there's not even the talent, let alone the recognition of what is actually required to (try to) run the country.

It is lamentable, as you say, that there is no credible, effective opposition.

[sidicks]

El stovey said:

The article said.

"The electoralist goals of Labour would always conflict with the goals of regrowing the grassroots, winning socialist arguments."

This is the key point. Labour is becoming a socialist protest movement. It's goals aren't to be in power. They want to become a far left ideology. An idea rather than MPs engaging in running the country.

If (new) labour MPs and candidates want to win an election or even survive and not get sent to the front on Corby Stalinist purges. They need to split the parliamentary Labour Party from the rest. I expect this election will be the stimulus. Not sure where they are going to get funding from without the unions though.

There is certainly a gap now in British politics for a centrist left party. Perhaps May will occupy this ground with her talk of fairer society? Perhaps the gap is actually also to the right of the conservatives now?

Agreed!

[mx-6]

El stovey said:

There is certainly a gap now in British politics for a centrist left party. Perhaps May will occupy this ground with her talk of fairer society? Perhaps the gap is actually also to the right of the conservatives now?

There's actually already a centre-left party, called the Lib Dem's. They aren't an ideal proposition in their current state but they are an existing party with all the supporting aparatus already in place.

May's talked a good game on fairer society but I don't see any evidence of her being a social progressive. There's no gap on the right, this thread and others demonstrate that the right wingers are satisfied with the Conservatives as they are.

[Likes Fast Cars]

mx-6 said:

El stovey said:

There is certainly a gap now in British politics for a centrist left party. Perhaps May will occupy this ground with her talk of fairer society? Perhaps the gap is actually also to the right of the conservatives now?

There's actually already a centre-left party, called the Lib Dem's. They aren't an ideal proposition in their current state but they are an existing party with all the supporting aparatus already in place.

May's talked a good game on fairer society but I don't see any evidence of her being a social progressive. There's no gap on the right, this thread and others demonstrate that the right wingers are satisfied with the Conservatives as they are.

Or Conservative supporters are just sensible middle of the road people and are not right wingers?