Snap General Election?

[turbobloke]

Fastdruid said:

Yipper said:

Yes, amidst all the pointless Internet squabbling, most people have missed the gigantic surge in Labour in the past few days. By some latest surveys and bookies, Labour could now win and beat the Tories...

Gigantic surge. Haha. One poll that has changed their methodology, one poll that hasn't had anything before since the last GE (and was wrong then) and one which could be an outlier or just related to Labour voters holding their noses and voting for Corbyn despite the distaste. .

Was the post from Yipper meant to be taken seriously? Blimey!

I read something in the dripping wet and not-in-print-any-more-because-rejected Independent online to the effect that Labour was up 2 points in one poll. That's within the margin of error for 'no change at all'.

How desperate can desperation get... Those prone to desperation might save some for Macron, he's just slipped six points against Le Pen which in contrast to Labour not going anywhere is significant in terms of poll error (statistical, not absolute).

[andy_s]

Yipper said:

Yes, amidst all the pointless Internet squabbling, most people have missed the gigantic surge in Labour in the past few days. By some latest surveys and bookies, Labour could now win and beat the Tories...

I hope the polls show an increase for Labour; it'll make sure that there's less apathy to vote amongst conservative voters who would otherwise consider things a slam dunk and not bother.

[turbobloke]

andy_s said:

I hope the polls show an increase for Labour; it'll make sure that there's less apathy to vote amongst conservative voters who would otherwise consider things a slam dunk and not bother.

Point taken on the apathy aspect, but it's not a 'gigantic surge' as misdescribed earlier. This is from a recent poll tracker article.

[Gogoplata]

turbobloke said:

andy_s said:

I hope the polls show an increase for Labour; it'll make sure that there's less apathy to vote amongst conservative voters who would otherwise consider things a slam dunk and not bother.

Point taken on the apathy aspect, but it's not a 'gigantic surge' as misdescribed earlier. This is from a recent poll tracker article.

Yeah, but that doesn't take into account the ITV This Morning Poll

[andy_s]

turbobloke said:

Point taken on the apathy aspect, but it's not a 'gigantic surge' as misdescribed earlier. This is from a recent poll tracker article.

I know it's not a 'gigantic surge', , I suppose such is the situation at Labour that any gain is astonishing and any gain above .5% is a veritable tsunami...

[Mrr T]

dimots said:

sidicks said:

I am not an accountant, neither have I said anything that aligns with a belief that "it is the duty of every business to pay as little tax as it can get away with".

Do you want to go for a hat trick of misrepresentation?!

No that's fine thanks. Duly noted and added to my Sidicks fact-file.

Hi. I am an accountant with a reasonable knowledge of tax. The taxation of profits of multinational companies is complex. It's even more complex with internet based companies. There are generally accepted principles agreed by most revenue services to avoid conflicts.

I have posted this before but it shows the complexity.

Let's say I manufacturer a product my materials cost 10 and I sell at 20. If I sell in the UK I make 10 which is subject to CT. I will ignore other costs for simplicity.
It's clear my profits will be taxed in the UK.

I now have a customer in Germany where are the profits taxed? We can all agree in the UK.

My products need maintenance and I have an employee in the UK who flies to Germany when needed. We can seeprofits will still be taxed in the UK.

My products is very successful in Germany and I now sell more products in Germany than the UK. It's also costing a lot of money for the enginer to travel constantly to Germany so I deside to hire a local engineer. Now where do you think my profits should be taxed?

With the success of my business in Germany I now employ not just an engineer in Germany but a sales team, office staff to manage the billing, credit control, personal and wages. Now where should the profit be taxed.

Finally I decide it's to expensive to manufacturer in the UK so I outsource manufacturer to a Chinese company. We still have an office in the UK but employ more people in Germany. So now where should the profit be taxed.

I hope this gives an idea as to why the subject complex.

[Yipper]

Fastdruid said:

Yipper said:

Yes, amidst all the pointless Internet squabbling, most people have missed the gigantic surge in Labour in the past few days. By some latest surveys and bookies, Labour could now win and beat the Tories...

Gigantic surge. Haha. One poll that has changed their methodology, one poll that hasn't had anything before since the last GE (and was wrong then) and one which could be an outlier or just related to Labour voters holding their noses and voting for Corbyn despite the distaste.

We'll see what happens when they release their manifesto's and the Conservatives start bringing up Corbyn's dodgy past.

In terms of bets being placed at the bookies (by quantity), Labour (40%) have for the first time caught the Tories today (40%). The Tories have collapsed from 52% to 40% in the past week...

Tories' poll lead has collapsed by half in the past week, from 23 points to 13...

May's approval ratings have declined -20% in the past month...

The possibility of a Labour win has surged massively in recent days.

[anonymous-user]

Yipper said:

The possibility of a Labour win has surged massively in recent days.

It really hasn't you know

[turbobloke]

Yipper said:

Fastdruid said:

Yipper said:

Yes, amidst all the pointless Internet squabbling, most people have missed the gigantic surge in Labour in the past few days. By some latest surveys and bookies, Labour could now win and beat the Tories...

Gigantic surge. Haha. One poll that has changed their methodology, one poll that hasn't had anything before since the last GE (and was wrong then) and one which could be an outlier or just related to Labour voters holding their noses and voting for Corbyn despite the distaste.

We'll see what happens when they release their manifesto's and the Conservatives start bringing up Corbyn's dodgy past.

In terms of bets being placed at the bookies (by quantity), Labour (40%) have for the first time caught the Tories today (40%). The Tories have collapsed from 52% to 40% in the past week...

Tories' poll lead has collapsed by half in the past week, from 23 points to 13...

May's approval ratings have declined -20% in the past month...

The possibility of a Labour win has surged massively in recent days.

How much of your own money have you staked on Labour as a result of this 'massive surge'? You should be betting the mortgage based on your rhetoric. Or is it trolling in a fancy t-shirt?

[turbobloke]

garyhun said:

Yipper said:

The possibility of a Labour win has surged massively in recent days.

It really hasn't you know

No, it hasn't.

[turbobloke]

Betting odds as at 1615hrs 30 04 17:


Paddy Power

Most Seats

1/25 Conservatives

12/1 Labour

66/1 Liberal Democrats

500/1 UKIP

500/1 Green Party

Overall Majority

1/14 Conservative majority

6/1 No overall majority

20/1 Labour

100/1 Liberal Democrats

500/1 UKIP

1000/1 Green Party


Coral

Most Seats

1/20 Conservative

12/1 Labour

50/1 Liberal Democrats

200/1 UKIP

500/1 Greens

Overall Majority

1/10 Conservative

7/1 No overall majority

20/1 Labour

100/1 Liberal Democrat


Ladbrokes

Most Seats

1/25 Conservatives

14/1 Labour

50/1 Liberal Democrats

200/1 UKIP

500/1 Greens

Majority betting

1/10 Conservatives

7/1 No overall majority

20/1 Labour

100/1 Liberal Democrats

200/1 UKIP


William Hill

Most seats

1/25 Conservatives

12/1 Labour

25/1 Lib Dem

66/1 Ukip

200/1 Greens

Majority betting

1/12 Conservatives

6/1 No overall majority

16/1 Labour

40/1 Lib Dem

[Tryke3]

Welshbeef said:

Tryke3 said:

Facebook made 6 billion last year, whatever profits are made no one really knows exactly

You are really going to hate it when you learn how little tax the banks have paid since 2008 - and try guessing how long it will take for RBS to actually pay any corporation tax ....it's also sacked lots of staff and so many high earners who would all have been paying 45% tax. Oh well.

So that makes it ok then ? People who earn over 250k have their own tax avoidance schemes and don't pay anywhere near 45% tax

[turbobloke]

Tryke3 said:

Welshbeef said:

Tryke3 said:

Facebook made 6 billion last year, whatever profits are made no one really knows exactly

You are really going to hate it when you learn how little tax the banks have paid since 2008 - and try guessing how long it will take for RBS to actually pay any corporation tax ....it's also sacked lots of staff and so many high earners who would all have been paying 45% tax. Oh well.

People who earn over 250k have their own tax avoidance schemes and don't pay anywhere near 45% tax

Who said there's no good news these days

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

So what tax should FB pay and what would it be based on?

I like the idea of a FB user tax. Every time someone makes a stupid post about a sandwich they would have to pay a one off £1 idiot tax.

[sidicks]

Tryke3 said:

So that makes it ok then ? People who earn over 250k have their own tax avoidance schemes and don't pay anywhere near 45% tax

Nonsense. What about those on PAYE?

Can I ask for your experience of people earning over £250k who you have discussed their tax affairs with?

[768]

Tryke3 said:

People who earn over 250k have their own tax avoidance schemes and don't pay anywhere near 45% tax

Ha.

[AstonZagato]

Tryke3 said:

People who earn over 250k have their own tax avoidance schemes and don't pay anywhere near 45% tax

What schemes are these? I'd love to know.

[loafer123]

Poll of polls shows dramatic increase in Conservative lead...

http://britainelects.com

[anonymous-user]

AstonZagato said:

Tryke3 said:

People who earn over 250k have their own tax avoidance schemes and don't pay anywhere near 45% tax

What schemes are these? I'd love to know.

Quite. The young lad has no idea of real life so just throws out a load of nonsense in the hope that some of it may be correct. A little bit Corbyn on might say

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 1st May 16:05

[CaptainSlow]

Yipper said:

In terms of bets being placed at the bookies (by quantity), Labour (40%) have for the first time caught the Tories today (40%). The Tories have collapsed from 52% to 40% in the past week...

Have you considered that may have something to do with the pricing? No many bets get placed on a 25 to 1 on as it;s not worth the effort. Sometimes it's worth just using a bit of common sense.