Snap General Election?
Discussion
bazza white said:
All the press Corbyn bashing seems to be having the same effect here as it did in the states with trump. Pull away from the press and it's all mainly pro labour on social media.
Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
To be honest I think they're really ballsing it up at the moment.Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
Just pointing at Corbyn and laughing only gets you so far.
Especially when he's promising free money.
MiniMan64 said:
bazza white said:
All the press Corbyn bashing seems to be having the same effect here as it did in the states with trump. Pull away from the press and it's all mainly pro labour on social media.
Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
To be honest I think they're really ballsing it up at the moment.Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
Just pointing at Corbyn and laughing only gets you so far.
Especially when he's promising free money.
Tuna said:
Ignoring the whole s
t-flinging blame game, I've still not seen a politician who can actually admit that we are in trouble. The austerity con is typical of this - the right want us to believe they're being austere to fix a broken economy, and the left want us to believe the Tories are being austere and forcing cuts on us - but the reality is spending has gone nowhere significant, and those that are in power are fiddling around the margins.
This is spot on.t-flinging blame game, I've still not seen a politician who can actually admit that we are in trouble. The austerity con is typical of this - the right want us to believe they're being austere to fix a broken economy, and the left want us to believe the Tories are being austere and forcing cuts on us - but the reality is spending has gone nowhere significant, and those that are in power are fiddling around the margins.El stovey said:
MiniMan64 said:
bazza white said:
All the press Corbyn bashing seems to be having the same effect here as it did in the states with trump. Pull away from the press and it's all mainly pro labour on social media.
Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
To be honest I think they're really ballsing it up at the moment.Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
Just pointing at Corbyn and laughing only gets you so far.
Especially when he's promising free money.
Latest poll yesterday puts May just 2 seats ahead, down from a peak of up to 180 seats a month ago.
And 2 in 3 of all bets placed at bookies today are going on Labour.
Yipper said:
El stovey said:
MiniMan64 said:
bazza white said:
All the press Corbyn bashing seems to be having the same effect here as it did in the states with trump. Pull away from the press and it's all mainly pro labour on social media.
Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
To be honest I think they're really ballsing it up at the moment.Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
Just pointing at Corbyn and laughing only gets you so far.
Especially when he's promising free money.
Latest poll yesterday puts May just 2 seats ahead, down from a peak of up to 180 seats a month ago.
And 2 in 3 all bets placed at bookies today are going on Labour.
The number of bets thing is not useful as an indicator to which Party will win but may give comfort to those needing it. If big money was going on Labour rather than many bets of a few quid then the odds would be different to this, from Oddschecker.
Conservative Majority 1/8 to 1/10
Labour Majority 14/1 to 18/1
turbobloke said:
Yipper said:
El stovey said:
MiniMan64 said:
bazza white said:
All the press Corbyn bashing seems to be having the same effect here as it did in the states with trump. Pull away from the press and it's all mainly pro labour on social media.
Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
To be honest I think they're really ballsing it up at the moment.Are the Tories even running an election campaign this time around. It really is possible poor.
Just pointing at Corbyn and laughing only gets you so far.
Especially when he's promising free money.
Latest poll yesterday puts May just 2 seats ahead, down from a peak of up to 180 seats a month ago.
And 2 in 3 all bets placed at bookies today are going on Labour.
The number of bets thing is not useful as an indicator to which Party will win but may give comfort to those needing it. If big money was going on Labour rather than many bets of a few quid then the odds would be different to this, from Oddschecker.
Conservative Majority 1/8 to 1/10
Labour Majority 14/1 to 18/1
Clinton was 1/2 at the bookies up to 6 hours before polling began... While most bets were being placed on Trump...
Bremain was 1/2 at the bookies up to 2 hours before exit polls began... While most bets were being placed on Brexit...
It could be said that someone with such faith in bookies' odds is rather credulous, either that or wanting to believe a version which more closely matches hope over expectation.
Yipper said:
AmitG said:
Tuna said:
Ignoring the whole st-flinging blame game, I've still not seen a politician who can actually admit that we are in trouble. The austerity con is typical of this - the right want us to believe they're being austere to fix a broken economy, and the left want us to believe the Tories are being austere and forcing cuts on us - but the reality is spending has gone nowhere significant, and those that are in power are fiddling around the margins.
This is spot on.t-flinging blame game, I've still not seen a politician who can actually admit that we are in trouble. The austerity con is typical of this - the right want us to believe they're being austere to fix a broken economy, and the left want us to believe the Tories are being austere and forcing cuts on us - but the reality is spending has gone nowhere significant, and those that are in power are fiddling around the margins.UK economy is no different to running your own personal finances at home. You cannot go on in ever increasing debt. At some point, you will run out of spending *other people's money*. You have to make savings, not just spend and waste. There is no "con" about financial efficiency and effectiveness and good cashflow. It is good economic management. Never forget -- debt costs money. Debt is not free. You have to pay for it. There is no magic money tree at the end of the rainbow. The Conservatives have saved hundreds of billions and net borrowing is -70% improved since they took over from Labour.
Under the Conservatives, the deficit is down by nearly two-thirds as a % of GDP.
In their 2015 manifesto, Labour offered no date by which they would clear the deficit.
That's one way to avoid missing a target - avoid setting a target.
At the last election, Miliband attacked the Conservatives for wanting to shrink the State. Good for them! The Tories that is. It did Miliband and Labour no good at all.
Now we have Corbyn, who iirc has set a target using spending plans containing a £30bn black hole.
MaxSo said:
London424 said:
It's the same every election cycle. All those kids who couldn't vote last time are now old enough. The majority vote labour. You get lots of noise about voters registering etc...but it's the same old same old.
On the flip side all those who voted labour in their youth are now older, have a mortgage, and for (understandably) selfish reasons, vote for the party most likely to keep house prices rising.
(Yes the above is a generalisation but you get my drift).
Tweaked it.On the flip side all those who voted labour in their youth are now older, have a mortgage, and for (understandably) selfish reasons, vote for the party most likely to keep house prices rising.
(Yes the above is a generalisation but you get my drift).
Moonhawk said:
MaxSo said:
London424 said:
It's the same every election cycle. All those kids who couldn't vote last time are now old enough. The majority vote labour. You get lots of noise about voters registering etc...but it's the same old same old.
On the flip side all those who voted labour in their youth are now older, have a mortgage, and for (understandably) selfish reasons, vote for the party most likely to keep house prices rising.
(Yes the above is a generalisation but you get my drift).
Tweaked it.On the flip side all those who voted labour in their youth are now older, have a mortgage, and for (understandably) selfish reasons, vote for the party most likely to keep house prices rising.
(Yes the above is a generalisation but you get my drift).
It's a real bugger when the facts get in the way of a good fairy tale is it not.Graemsay said:
"We've paid our taxes, so we're owed it."
I saw some figures a while back, and those in the older generation will get out something like 120%, could be more, of what they've paid in tax as benefits. For the younger generation, it'll be around 80%.
I don't know what the solution is. The uncapped liability on care costs was an attempt to tap into the huge amount of untaxed wealth held by pensioners.
IndeedI saw some figures a while back, and those in the older generation will get out something like 120%, could be more, of what they've paid in tax as benefits. For the younger generation, it'll be around 80%.
I don't know what the solution is. The uncapped liability on care costs was an attempt to tap into the huge amount of untaxed wealth held by pensioners.
If the older generation had indeed paid everything in needed to cover their retirement costs shouldn't there be a large sovereign wealth fund to reflect the demographic bulge they represented?, rather than a national debt approaching 90% of GDP and hundreds of billions more in off balance sheet liabilities.
No one is saying that the baby boomers had it easy, what they are saying is that they had it easier than the generations to follow are likely to have it. Buying their homes before the greatest house price rises in our history and with far better pensions, on average.
A baby boomer retiring in their late fifties may have indeed spent 40 years in work, but they can expect to spend at least 30 years in retirement.
JagLover said:
If the older generation had indeed paid everything in needed to cover their retirement costs shouldn't there be a large sovereign wealth fund to reflect the demographic bulge they represented?, rather than a national debt approaching 90% of GDP and hundreds of billions more in off balance sheet liabilities.
Hardly their fault though. Successive governments, Labour in particular, have squandered our money on a biblical scale. If the Atlee government (and all successor governments) had any sense there would have created a funded national pension scheme.snuffy said:
Monty Python said:
What's your view about famous people saying "vote for X" - I've noticed Dave Gilmour asking people to vote Labour - frankly he's hardly someone who's going to be affected much by the outcome.
Famous people (you are clearly showing your age there, the term is celeb 
) only every say vote Labour. Or vote Remain, or vote Clinton. No one famous ever comes out and says "vote Conservative". The question is: Why ? How come celebrity endorsements are only ever left wing ? (and I know someone will be along in a minute to give me an example of someone famous saying vote Tory).
alfie2244 said:
30yrs?
Could be pretty close to that - according to the article below - a man aged 65 today could expect to live for another 22 years and a woman for 24.So if they did retire in their late 50s - that would give them close to 30 years in retirement.
https://www.ft.com/content/78146114-15f5-11e7-80f4...
alfie2244 said:
JagLover said:
A baby boomer retiring in their late fifties may have indeed spent 40 years in work, but they can expect to spend at least 30 years in retirement.
30yrs?A 60 year old in the UK can expect to live for a further 24 years on average.
http://www.helpage.org/global-agewatch/population-...
So a slight exaggeration on my part. A hypothetical retiring 58 year old can expect to live a further 26 years.
JagLover said:
Life expectancy at a later age is not the same as average life expectancy which is dragged down by those dying young.
A 60 year old in the UK can expect to live for a further 24 years on average.
http://www.helpage.org/global-agewatch/population-...
So a slight exaggeration on my part. A hypothetical retiring 58 year old can expect to live a further 26 years.
But a retiring 58yr old doesn't get a state pension until 65 so not a drain on the state as you seem to be saying.A 60 year old in the UK can expect to live for a further 24 years on average.
http://www.helpage.org/global-agewatch/population-...
So a slight exaggeration on my part. A hypothetical retiring 58 year old can expect to live a further 26 years.
65 -58 = 7. 26 - 7 = 19 so on balance my 20 yrs was far more accurate than your exaggerated 30 yrs?
Only a 33% exaggeration to make a point!
How many of those retired years would be in good health, fit and active?
Did you know that raising a child to the age of 21 costs more than the average semi-detached house? I could have had a nice stock of 4 semi BTL's to fund my retirement if it weren't for the kids ....Pesky old people eh.
Moonhawk said:
Just to pick up on your "tweak" again - look at this diagram and tell me who people who "vote for the party most likely to keep house prices rising." should be voting for - cos it ain't the Conservatives.
The problem with that graph is that the house price cycle lags the current government cycle by a significant period, and we have two significant financial crashes dumped in the middle. I'd challenge anyone to draw any serious conclusions about who's "better" and "worse" when you have so much disruption (and one off effects like taking house prices out of rpi).It's like trying to decide which boat leaks the most just after two submarine mines have gone off.
Yipper said:
AmitG said:
Tuna said:
Ignoring the whole st-flinging blame game, I've still not seen a politician who can actually admit that we are in trouble. The austerity con is typical of this - the right want us to believe they're being austere to fix a broken economy, and the left want us to believe the Tories are being austere and forcing cuts on us - but the reality is spending has gone nowhere significant, and those that are in power are fiddling around the margins.
This is spot on.t-flinging blame game, I've still not seen a politician who can actually admit that we are in trouble. The austerity con is typical of this - the right want us to believe they're being austere to fix a broken economy, and the left want us to believe the Tories are being austere and forcing cuts on us - but the reality is spending has gone nowhere significant, and those that are in power are fiddling around the margins.UK economy is no different to running your own personal finances at home. You cannot go on in ever increasing debt. At some point, you will run out of spending *other people's money*. You have to make savings, not just spend and waste. There is no "con" about financial efficiency and effectiveness and good cashflow. It is good economic management. Never forget -- debt costs money. Debt is not free. You have to pay for it. There is no magic money tree at the end of the rainbow. The Conservatives have saved hundreds of billions and net borrowing is -70% improved since they took over from Labour.
As yet they haven't "saved" anything - they've reduced the rate at which they're loosing money. Given the profligacy of the previous government, I'm cynical about how much of that is a true improvement in efficiency and costs, and how much is just cutting out unjustifiable expenses. We still have a massive civil service, huge management overheads in most public sectors and projects like HS2 going full steam ahead. That's not austerity.
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