Brexit related recession?

[sidicks]

///ajd said:

Its impressive debate isn't it.

Next we'll hear that we are failing to look at the complexities of lag in the lamb cycle.

Or something.

///adj in misrepresenting other posters shocker. Read all about it...

[sidicks]

B'stard Child said:

280,000 tonnes a year is imported free from Tariff into the EU - 50% of that coming to the UK

Hence why it's probably only slightly more expensive than home grown

Thanks

[sidicks]

nadger said:

Absolutely! Thats obviously the best reason to remain! :roll eyes:
[sidicks mode] so the best you can do on an internet forum is critique others' opinions rather than provide your own for analysis [/sidicks mode]

Fair enough - So why is a % more important than actual € ?

[mike9009]

sidicks said:

nadger said:

Absolutely! Thats obviously the best reason to remain! :roll eyes:
[sidicks mode] so the best you can do on an internet forum is critique others' opinions rather than provide your own for analysis [/sidicks mode]

Fair enough - So why is a % more important than actual € ?

I don't know what the result is, but surely the best calc is per capita?

[Andy Zarse]

Yipper said:

Things are defo slowing down. Whether that is part of the normal economic cycle or Brexit worries is up for debate. But, either way, prices are rising sharply (due to the weak Pound) and people are starting to think twice about spending. Was in Lidl yesterday and noticed a number of regular items, like cheese, have jumped around +10% in the past month. Made me think more consciously about costs during the shop and probably spent slightly less as a result.

Cheese in Lidl is mass produced by using dried milk powder, which is priced by reference to the world market in dollars. So yes the price has risen but much has been pure profiteering.

[davepoth]

///ajd said:

Great
- what products do they want to reduce tariffs on?
- are out farmers happy about this?
- how much cheaper will our lamb be, and will it be worth it to pay the extra bills to pay for closed UK lamb farms?

Funny thing about that. The NZ lambing season is six months away from the UK one (for obvious reasons) so with a bit of organisation we should be able to eat UK lamb when it's in season, and then switch over to NZ lamb for the rest of the year.

Both countries get a clear run to produce for the home market in the part of the year that is most profitable, nobody loses out, and there's plenty of spare meat for a joint export enterprise to third countries. And the deal is already in the making:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/business/farming/f...

[B'stard Child]

///ajd said:

B'stard Child said:

///ajd said:

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

Who says we don't have the choice? I had NZ lamb last week, not especially expensive, not more so than UK that I noticed.

So is this NZ lamb about to be hugely cheaper with a mega NZ free trade deal? Will that push UK lamb farming out of business? Or will it make not much difference? In which case is it worth stuffing our deal with the EU for these 'phantom' great trade deals?

So all of a sudden you're in favour of protectionist policies. Interesting.

Not necessarily.

But interesting that you recognise that being in the EU offes some protection for our industries. I don't remember the Vote Leave team pointing that out, though their chief economist did warn about the likelihood of running down our car industry.

NZ lamb is a good example to show how hollow the "great new trade deals" myth is though.

280,000 tonnes a year is imported free from Tariff into the EU - 50% of that coming to the UK

Hence why it's probably only slightly more expensive than home grown

Are you saying we don't need a free trade deal with NZ for lamb as we already import loads tariff free?

Why did a brexiteer bring it up as an issue? Are these "great trade deal" stories just myths based on "bendy banana" type facts?

Answer your own bloody questions - clearly you are able to do that

[///ajd]

B'stard Child said:

Answer your own bloody questions - clearly you are able to do that

Well we're all learning - from the link above:

courier said:

"However he admitted the timing was sensitive because of UK sheep farmers’ frustration over New Zealand imports into domestic markets

The news comes just days after NFU Scotland’s vice-president Martin Kennedy called for a substantial reduction in New Zealand’s tariff-free quota of lamb to the UK and the union launched a wider campaign for Scottish lamb to be given more prominence on supermarket shelves."

[davepoth]

///ajd said:

B'stard Child said:

Answer your own bloody questions - clearly you are able to do that

Well we're all learning - from the link above:

courier said:

"However he admitted the timing was sensitive because of UK sheep farmers’ frustration over New Zealand imports into domestic markets

The news comes just days after NFU Scotland’s vice-president Martin Kennedy called for a substantial reduction in New Zealand’s tariff-free quota of lamb to the UK and the union launched a wider campaign for Scottish lamb to be given more prominence on supermarket shelves."

Which is an example of a negative mindset that we need to get out of to make Brexit a success. Read a little further down the article and you'll see a reference to how NZ lamb farmers are not subsidised at all. Imagine that! A farm that makes a profit without handouts.

http://dailysignal.com/2016/09/22/what-happened-wh...

The UK is ideally placed to undergo a similar sort of revolution - and without quite such a hard floor as was enforced in New Zealand it needn't be painful.

Repatriating agricultural policy means all of this is back on the table.

[AC43]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Sorry to hear about your mum.

I do live in the South East (in London) but haven't experienced these problems myself other than a gradual ratcheting up in passenger numbers on the tube and on trains which I just assume is a normal corollary of progress.

And of course the roads are a bit busier but making your way across London by car has always been a bit hit and miss. I don't bother travelling by car for business because that's been rubbish for at least 15 years. Always use trains and I suppose that going "the wrong way" is far easier. The number of people piling off trains coming into London can be pretty breath taking.

My GP is OK, haven't had the misfortune of having had to use hospitals for a long time but 10/12 years ago the maternity units of London hospitals were certainly full to capacity and beyond.

Also, maybe, living in London I'm just used to the place being rammed and that if you live in a relatively tranquil part of the world the contrast is far greater. I mean as long as I can remember developers have been building on every spare scrap of land here. I guess I just don't notice as the change is relatively marginal given how busy the place already is.

[///ajd]

davepoth said:

Which is an example of a negative mindset that we need to get out of to make Brexit a success. Read a little further down the article and you'll see a reference to how NZ lamb farmers are not subsidised at all. Imagine that! A farm that makes a profit without handouts.

http://dailysignal.com/2016/09/22/what-happened-wh...

The UK is ideally placed to undergo a similar sort of revolution - and without quite such a hard floor as was enforced in New Zealand it needn't be painful.

Repatriating agricultural policy means all of this is back on the table.

We already have tariff free NZ inports though, so the NZ deal they are clamouring to make may allow us only to stand still as to where are today, and won't be a magic better deal.

[jjlynn27]

davepoth said:

///ajd said:

B'stard Child said:

Answer your own bloody questions - clearly you are able to do that

Well we're all learning - from the link above:

courier said:

"However he admitted the timing was sensitive because of UK sheep farmers’ frustration over New Zealand imports into domestic markets

The news comes just days after NFU Scotland’s vice-president Martin Kennedy called for a substantial reduction in New Zealand’s tariff-free quota of lamb to the UK and the union launched a wider campaign for Scottish lamb to be given more prominence on supermarket shelves."

Which is an example of a negative mindset that we need to get out of to make Brexit a success. Read a little further down the article and you'll see a reference to how NZ lamb farmers are not subsidised at all. Imagine that! A farm that makes a profit without handouts.

http://dailysignal.com/2016/09/22/what-happened-wh...

The UK is ideally placed to undergo a similar sort of revolution - and without quite such a hard floor as was enforced in New Zealand it needn't be painful.

Repatriating agricultural policy means all of this is back on the table.

union vice president said:

“Once August comes we have plenty of lambs to meet the market, but New Zealand and Australia are sending them all year round.”

“We have the opportunity to change the deal after Brexit. We don’t want New Zealand lamb on our shelves when we have plenty available here.”

You should write to him, and tell him to change his mindset.
I, for one, would be very interested to read his reply to you.

[John145]

jjlynn27 said:

davepoth said:

///ajd said:

B'stard Child said:

Answer your own bloody questions - clearly you are able to do that

Well we're all learning - from the link above:

courier said:

"However he admitted the timing was sensitive because of UK sheep farmers’ frustration over New Zealand imports into domestic markets

The news comes just days after NFU Scotland’s vice-president Martin Kennedy called for a substantial reduction in New Zealand’s tariff-free quota of lamb to the UK and the union launched a wider campaign for Scottish lamb to be given more prominence on supermarket shelves."

Which is an example of a negative mindset that we need to get out of to make Brexit a success. Read a little further down the article and you'll see a reference to how NZ lamb farmers are not subsidised at all. Imagine that! A farm that makes a profit without handouts.

http://dailysignal.com/2016/09/22/what-happened-wh...

The UK is ideally placed to undergo a similar sort of revolution - and without quite such a hard floor as was enforced in New Zealand it needn't be painful.

Repatriating agricultural policy means all of this is back on the table.

union vice president said:

“Once August comes we have plenty of lambs to meet the market, but New Zealand and Australia are sending them all year round.”

“We have the opportunity to change the deal after Brexit. We don’t want New Zealand lamb on our shelves when we have plenty available here.”

You should write to him, and tell him to change his mindset.
I, for one, would be very interested to read his reply to you.

It won't be his decision, it'll be in what's the best interest of the UK as a whole. Competition is in the people's interest and he won't be getting the protection he desires I imagine.

[B'stard Child]

///ajd said:

davepoth said:

Which is an example of a negative mindset that we need to get out of to make Brexit a success. Read a little further down the article and you'll see a reference to how NZ lamb farmers are not subsidised at all. Imagine that! A farm that makes a profit without handouts.

http://dailysignal.com/2016/09/22/what-happened-wh...

The UK is ideally placed to undergo a similar sort of revolution - and without quite such a hard floor as was enforced in New Zealand it needn't be painful.

Repatriating agricultural policy means all of this is back on the table.

We already have tariff free NZ inports though, so the NZ deal they are clamouring to make may allow us only to stand still as to where are today, and won't be a magic better deal.

Nope - there is an "agreed qty of Lamb" between EU on NZ to allow "agreed qty" to be imported without tariff

Important bit is EU and NZ - not UK and NZ

[jjlynn27]

John145 said:

It won't be his decision, it'll be in what's the best interest of the UK as a whole. Competition is in the people's interest and he won't be getting the protection he desires I imagine.

Thanks for that. I was under impression that TM is going to replace DD with him to lead negotiations. Phew.
Is competition for jobs also in people interests too, or is this benefit of competition limited to import of lamb?

[John145]

jjlynn27 said:

John145 said:

It won't be his decision, it'll be in what's the best interest of the UK as a whole. Competition is in the people's interest and he won't be getting the protection he desires I imagine.

Thanks for that. I was under impression that TM is going to replace DD with him to lead negotiations. Phew.
Is competition for jobs also in people interests too, or is this benefit of competition limited to import of lamb?

Just look at history to see what protectionism does. He may be leading some parts of some negotiations but that'll be temporary. Brexit as a whole is a globalisation vote.

Britain has always been global and always will be. Shame the remainers would have us all painted as insular bigots.

[jjlynn27]

John145 said:

jjlynn27 said:

John145 said:

It won't be his decision, it'll be in what's the best interest of the UK as a whole. Competition is in the people's interest and he won't be getting the protection he desires I imagine.

Thanks for that. I was under impression that TM is going to replace DD with him to lead negotiations. Phew.
Is competition for jobs also in people interests too, or is this benefit of competition limited to import of lamb?

Just look at history to see what protectionism does. He may be leading some parts of some negotiations but that'll be temporary. Brexit as a whole is a globalisation vote.

Britain has always been global and always will be. Shame the remainers would have us all painted as insular bigots.

You didn't answer simple question. That's ok.

I don't know how to say this differently. No, not all people who did vote for leave are 'insular bigots'. I don't think anyone was claiming that. If they did, they would be wrong. Immigration was number one concern for majority of leave voters.
'Brexit as a whole is a globalisation vote'.

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

You didn't answer simple question. That's ok.

I don't know how to say this differently. No, not all people who did vote for leave are 'insular bigots'. I don't think anyone was claiming that. If they did, they would be wrong. Immigration was number one concern for majority of leave voters.
'Brexit as a whole is a globalisation vote'.

Certainly Brexit gives much more opportunity to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world - surely you can't deny that?

[Tryke3]

turbobloke said:

MarshPhantom said:

PH XKR said:

sidicks said:

nadger said:

Ok, so we leave our largest single trading partner (who have apparently been breaking EU rules on subsidy, I have to bow to your greater knowledge on that score) which COULD theoretically limit our trading base. It would allow governmental intervention, yes, but how would it be funded if we're limiting our trading opportunities?

We aren't limiting our trading opportunities - you do know that there's a whole world outside of the EU?

Anyone remember the adverts "Slam in the Lamb"? Anyone wonder why we don't really see NZ lamb any more? EU. This is a world that was fairly recently open to us.

Why does it make more sense to pay to import lamb from the other side of the world rather than the other side of the channel?

Is that a comment on a long lost common market or the EU?

To avoid enduring the EU's megalomania and serial failure we could always import from Mars once a colony with sheep is established.

Silly, there's no grass in Mars

[Likes Fast Cars]

sidicks said:

Certainly Brexit gives much more opportunity to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world - surely you can't deny that?

The whole concept of the real, big, wide world is lost on some I'm afraid.