Brexit related recession?

Author
Discussion

MarshPhantom

Original Poster:

9,658 posts

137 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
Hopes that a weaker pound would be good for
exports have proved over-optimistic.


B'stard Child

28,412 posts

246 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
MarshPhantom said:
Hopes that a weaker pound would be good for
exports have proved over-optimistic.
Just the usual opinion or have you some links to support that statement?

johnxjsc1985

15,948 posts

164 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
Just the usual opinion or have you some links to support that statement?
so it must be OK to be optimistic then rather than over optimistic...I can go for that.

B'stard Child

28,412 posts

246 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
johnxjsc1985 said:
B'stard Child said:
Just the usual opinion or have you some links to support that statement?
so it must be OK to be optimistic then rather than over optimistic...I can go for that.
I'm not whelmed by the suggestion with out supporting documentation

///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
The real reason for the snap election?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex...

Yes, yes, independant. But is the data correct?

Makes the oft disputed squeeze on low wages by migrants look totally irrelevant.

768

13,682 posts

96 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
Are some minor movements in the economy with numbers different than forecast, during a widely predicted period of instability, the real reason for an election now instead of in three years time? No.

Fittster

20,120 posts

213 months

Thursday 11th May 2017
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
MarshPhantom said:
Hopes that a weaker pound would be good for
exports have proved over-optimistic.
Just the usual opinion or have you some links to support that statement?
Activity in the UK's industrial and construction sectors shrank in March, new figures show.
The Office for National Statistics said industrial output fell 0.5% compared with February, when it dropped by a revised 0.8%.
Falling demand for energy as a result of warmer weather was behind the change, the ONS said.

Construction output fell by 0.7% in March, after a 1.7% fall in February.

Meanwhile, the UK's deficit in goods and services widened to £4.9bn in March, from a revised figure of £2.6bn in February.
The ONS said rising oil imports, as well as imports of machinery and cars, had contributed to the unexpectedly high figure.
"March's simply dreadful trade figures demonstrate that Britain is failing to capitalise on sterling's depreciation," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The trade deficit is extremely volatile, but has shown no underlying improvement since sterling began to depreciate in late 2015."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Markit, described the figures as "a ropey set of March data for the UK economy that point to a poor end to a disappointing first quarter".

He added: "The poor data dilute any hopes that markedly slower GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter could be revised up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39880999

Tryke3

1,609 posts

94 months

Friday 12th May 2017
quotequote all
Fittster said:
B'stard Child said:
MarshPhantom said:
Hopes that a weaker pound would be good for
exports have proved over-optimistic.
Just the usual opinion or have you some links to support that statement?
Activity in the UK's industrial and construction sectors shrank in March, new figures show.
The Office for National Statistics said industrial output fell 0.5% compared with February, when it dropped by a revised 0.8%.
Falling demand for energy as a result of warmer weather was behind the change, the ONS said.

Construction output fell by 0.7% in March, after a 1.7% fall in February.

Meanwhile, the UK's deficit in goods and services widened to £4.9bn in March, from a revised figure of £2.6bn in February.
The ONS said rising oil imports, as well as imports of machinery and cars, had contributed to the unexpectedly high figure.
"March's simply dreadful trade figures demonstrate that Britain is failing to capitalise on sterling's depreciation," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The trade deficit is extremely volatile, but has shown no underlying improvement since sterling began to depreciate in late 2015."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Markit, described the figures as "a ropey set of March data for the UK economy that point to a poor end to a disappointing first quarter".

He added: "The poor data dilute any hopes that markedly slower GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter could be revised up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39880999
Add consumer debt to that equation and it ain't looking good, meanwhile the EU is doing very well.