EU to accept united Ireland provision...
Discussion
nicanary said:
Borghetto said:
Jimboka said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39072611
The republic are keen
The EU are also in approval
Bearing the strong pro remain vote in NI there is a good chance there will be a push to leave UK.
I'd put money on it happening
It has always been official policy for the Republic to reunify the island - that really isn't the issue. That a majority of the north wished to remain, is a million miles away from the Unionists wanting to be subsumed into the Republic. Given the huge subsidy the UK gives the north,, who is going to replace this - Eire? the EU?. The UK has spent decades just about keeping the lid on Northern Ireland - good luck Ireland taking on this mantle. The republic are keen
The EU are also in approval
Bearing the strong pro remain vote in NI there is a good chance there will be a push to leave UK.
I'd put money on it happening
They can't afford 1.6 million incomers, especially if half of them are whining Loyalists and/or the massive Civil Service that constitutes the backbone of the Ulster economy. It would take massive subsidies from the EU for the next 20/30 years to achieve a satisfactory financial union. The large international corporations who have invested in business in Northern Ireland wouldn't be too happy either - OK it's all a bit mickey-mouse by GB standards, but it keeps down the unemployment figures and gives the more educated school-leavers something to aim for.
Plus - who's going to pay for the inevitable riots?
Seems to me, he's onto something.
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2017/04/30/star-trek...
I agree with what McWilliams says, but he hasn't grappled with how you make reunification palatable to the Unionist community. I have never wanted the UK to fragment, but I do agree with separation if the local populace wants it. As things stand, the EU is losing one of its main paying members, the UK and the new candidates for membership are all poor and hoping for an avalanche of free money. So who is going to pay for this largess in Irelands case. I think Ireland has got to blow the trumpet for reunification and the EU are being mischievous to irritate the UK.
I don't think the English masses will shed many tears in Northern Ireland joining the Republic and I'm sure that once the reunification parties are finished, the hangover for Ireland will be a huge mess as they now have to deal with a large Unionist population who'll just love being bossed about by Dublin. I foresee the "troubles" starting over again, but this time centred on Irish cities being bombed rather than UK mainland ones. I doubt the bulk of the Irish population will thank their politicians for the chaos they'll have to deal with. My advice would be not to poke the hornets nest.
I don't think the English masses will shed many tears in Northern Ireland joining the Republic and I'm sure that once the reunification parties are finished, the hangover for Ireland will be a huge mess as they now have to deal with a large Unionist population who'll just love being bossed about by Dublin. I foresee the "troubles" starting over again, but this time centred on Irish cities being bombed rather than UK mainland ones. I doubt the bulk of the Irish population will thank their politicians for the chaos they'll have to deal with. My advice would be not to poke the hornets nest.
Edited by Borghetto on Monday 1st May 15:35
guardian said:
Former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern has said a referendum on Irish reunification would be dangerous and could lead to fresh trouble in Northern Ireland. The ex-taoiseach, a key partner for the British government during the Good Friday negotiations, was reacting to the EU’s decision in Brussels on Saturday to allow for a united Ireland that absorbed the north to join the EU if the province voted to leave the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/30/irish-reunification-referendum-bertie-ahern-good-friday-agreement-northern-irelandBlackLabel said:
Are you taking the pee? quoting The Guardian, here on PH, to support an argument!Borghetto said:
I agree with what McWilliams says, but he hasn't grappled with how you make reunification palatable to the Unionist community. I have never wanted the UK to fragment, but I do agree with separation if the local populace wants it. As things stand, the EU is losing one of its main paying members, the UK and the new candidates for membership are all poor and hoping for an avalanche of free money. So who is going to pay for this largess in Irelands case. I think Ireland has got to blow the trumpet for reunification and the EU are being mischievous to irritate the UK.
I don't think the English masses will shed many tears in Northern Ireland joining the Republic and I'm sure that once the reunification parties are finished, the hangover for Ireland will be a huge mess as they now have to deal with a large Unionist population who'll just love being bossed about by Dublin. I foresee the "troubles" starting over again, but this time centred on Irish cities being bombed rather than UK mainland ones. I doubt the bulk of the Irish population will thank their politicians for the chaos they'll have to deal with. My advice would be not to poke the hornets nest.
This is how I read it too.I don't think the English masses will shed many tears in Northern Ireland joining the Republic and I'm sure that once the reunification parties are finished, the hangover for Ireland will be a huge mess as they now have to deal with a large Unionist population who'll just love being bossed about by Dublin. I foresee the "troubles" starting over again, but this time centred on Irish cities being bombed rather than UK mainland ones. I doubt the bulk of the Irish population will thank their politicians for the chaos they'll have to deal with. My advice would be not to poke the hornets nest.
rUK subsidises NI even more than Scotland. And Ireland, IIRC are recent net contributors to the EU. If the EU negotiating team are anything like Mr Juncker then Ireland's main trading partner will also become more of a challenge. And then there's the future of Ireland's corporate taxation policies.
If they went for this, the EU would be putting the other 'I' back in 'PIIGS'.
I don't want to see the UK broken up, and don't believe the majority in each nation want it either. But economically there are worse things that could happen to England and Wales I suspect.
richie99 said:
A united Ireland would be one of the very few short term positives to come out of leaving the EU. All that lovely English taxpayers cash that won't have to be sent to subsidise the North. What's not to like? It's an economic basket case.
I see your point (and, living back in Belfast now having spent five years in London) despair of Northern Ireland as much as you do - probably a lot more.But I think your view is a little simplistic. What's not to like is the inevitable fall out - one of your largest trading partners, Ireland, would very likely falter badly under the weight of supporting Northern Ireland. Not to mention the human and economic cost of a return to violence on your proverbial doorstep.
slow_poke said:
nicanary said:
Borghetto said:
Jimboka said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39072611
The republic are keen
The EU are also in approval
Bearing the strong pro remain vote in NI there is a good chance there will be a push to leave UK.
I'd put money on it happening
It has always been official policy for the Republic to reunify the island - that really isn't the issue. That a majority of the north wished to remain, is a million miles away from the Unionists wanting to be subsumed into the Republic. Given the huge subsidy the UK gives the north,, who is going to replace this - Eire? the EU?. The UK has spent decades just about keeping the lid on Northern Ireland - good luck Ireland taking on this mantle. The republic are keen
The EU are also in approval
Bearing the strong pro remain vote in NI there is a good chance there will be a push to leave UK.
I'd put money on it happening
They can't afford 1.6 million incomers, especially if half of them are whining Loyalists and/or the massive Civil Service that constitutes the backbone of the Ulster economy. It would take massive subsidies from the EU for the next 20/30 years to achieve a satisfactory financial union. The large international corporations who have invested in business in Northern Ireland wouldn't be too happy either - OK it's all a bit mickey-mouse by GB standards, but it keeps down the unemployment figures and gives the more educated school-leavers something to aim for.
Plus - who's going to pay for the inevitable riots?
Seems to me, he's onto something.
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2017/04/30/star-trek...
More and more posts on this thread are leaning towards the "England would be better off" side of things. That view is ignoring the wishes of the majority in NI - and it's only about £17billion a year, which may be a lot to us as individuals, but it's chickenfeed against the UK's national budget. Mind you, it would pay for new schools and new hospitals.
If we assume that McWilliams is correct, it still doesn't answer the problem of persuading the working-class of the North that they'd be on to a good thing. The word resentful would hardly begin to describe it.
nicanary said:
That was very interesting, but I'm not altogether sure I believe the veracity of some of the figures. Average salary in Ireland E39k pa? I doubt it very much. The growth in population of younger Catholics is also against everything I've read elsewhere - contrary to what Loyalists have always believed, based on Catholics not using contraception (yeah, right), I'm pretty sure that in recent times it has been the Protestant population who've been producing more mouths for the DSS to feed. Maybe my readings were a long time ago and are now out of date.
More and more posts on this thread are leaning towards the "England would be better off" side of things. That view is ignoring the wishes of the majority in NI - and it's only about £17billion a year, which may be a lot to us as individuals, but it's chickenfeed against the UK's national budget. Mind you, it would pay for new schools and new hospitals.
If we assume that McWilliams is correct, it still doesn't answer the problem of persuading the working-class of the North that they'd be on to a good thing. The word resentful would hardly begin to describe it.
Average wage in RoI is there or thereabouts, a quick Google throws up many sources - including the RoI CSO, who you'd think would know about that sort of thing, being as they are the country's Central Statistics Office. He referenced the Ni 2011 census as the source of his population ratios - I'd imagine they're accurate (but his quoting may not be, granted. I for one am not going to trawl through the 2011 census stats to find out if he's accurate or not. I'll take his word in it, i'm pretty confident he's not likely to mess that up, given the number of opponents and enemies he has just waiting to slip up.) More and more posts on this thread are leaning towards the "England would be better off" side of things. That view is ignoring the wishes of the majority in NI - and it's only about £17billion a year, which may be a lot to us as individuals, but it's chickenfeed against the UK's national budget. Mind you, it would pay for new schools and new hospitals.
If we assume that McWilliams is correct, it still doesn't answer the problem of persuading the working-class of the North that they'd be on to a good thing. The word resentful would hardly begin to describe it.
I don't know where he sourced his stats on relative sizes of Dublin/Belfast economies in 1920. Out of a hat, out of thin air, out of his arse for all I know.
His point remains valid though - a border poll in the near to mid term is likely - 10 to 30 years, and it's likely to pass, thanks to shifting demographics, relative strength of RoI economy to NI economy, English disinterest and Brexit/EU situation.
Zod said:
This is a non-story, based on a mischievous provocative comment. Of course Northern Ireland would be part of the EU if it ever united with the Republic.
But it's not going to happen.
I'd say attempting stir up the whole Irish nationalism issue is a lot more than mischievous. Did anyone ask this question, or is it just the EU showing there's no depth to which they won't stoop to try to save their project?But it's not going to happen.
The EIRE economy is heavily dependant on exports into the UK too; so much so failure by brussels to allow a sensible trade deal could put them in a very difficult position.
hairyben said:
I'd say attempting stir up the whole Irish nationalism issue is a lot more than mischievous. Did anyone ask this question, or is it just the EU showing there's no depth to which they won't stoop to try to save their project?
The EIRE economy is heavily dependant on exports into the UK too; so much so failure by brussels to allow a sensible trade deal could put them in a very difficult position.
It was a result of a diplomatic heave by the EIRE Govt that it was included. Ironic really, as the party in power in EIRE traditionally wouldn't touch NornIrn issues with a bargepole, but English Nationalism forced them to take action on Irish Nationalism.The EIRE economy is heavily dependant on exports into the UK too; so much so failure by brussels to allow a sensible trade deal could put them in a very difficult position.
mrmarcus said:
so called said:
Due respect to my Irish friends, north and south, but cant we sell the north for about 55 to 100 billion to Europe and kill two threads in one stroke....so to speak.
GB would only end up in a European Court for handling stolen property....
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