The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain
Discussion
Condi said:
Maybe so, but cant you see that anyone in the market is simply reacting to the market signals (ie economic incentives)? Any change in strategy needs to come from NG or the gov. Power producers are just going to build and sell what is profitable, and as a shareholder that is what I want.
The UK does need more gas storage, which I would argue is a much better spend than either investing in new coal plants or keeping them around for longer than economically viable. Again, however, for private businesses planning and investing for a once in 50 year event doesnt make much economic sense.
People have little interest in investing in gas due to low profitability due to running inefficiently at well below capacity a lot of the time, this caused by the intermittency of other, less reliable sources of generation. Yes, intermittent renewables (unreliables as I prefer to call them) increase the costs of other sources of electricity generation. Time to throw all the solar panels and wind turbines on the scrap heap to save us all money.The UK does need more gas storage, which I would argue is a much better spend than either investing in new coal plants or keeping them around for longer than economically viable. Again, however, for private businesses planning and investing for a once in 50 year event doesnt make much economic sense.
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
When EVs achieve a range of 1000 miles or so, most people will only plug in once a month (average car mileage in the UK = approx 8k).
On what grounds do you make that statement??Why would any of that be true?
With a 1000 mile range, most motorists could top up their EV at the supermarket when they are shopping.
Condi said:
V8 Fettler said:
The recent cooler spell of weather was as nothing compared to the winters of 1947 and 1963, and yet we were within a few days of running out of gas. The current model is deeply flawed, we have minimal resilience.
Maybe so, but cant you see that anyone in the market is simply reacting to the market signals (ie economic incentives)? Any change in strategy needs to come from NG or the gov. Power producers are just going to build and sell what is profitable, and as a shareholder that is what I want. The UK does need more gas storage, which I would argue is a much better spend than either investing in new coal plants or keeping them around for longer than economically viable. Again, however, for private businesses planning and investing for a once in 50 year event doesnt make much economic sense.
How much gas storage would we need to survive another winter like 1947 or 1963? Twenty weeks? How much do we currently have? A few days?
V8 Fettler said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
When EVs achieve a range of 1000 miles or so, most people will only plug in once a month (average car mileage in the UK = approx 8k).
On what grounds do you make that statement??Why would any of that be true?
With a 1000 mile range, most motorists could top up their EV at the supermarket when they are shopping.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/01/w...
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
When EVs achieve a range of 1000 miles or so, most people will only plug in once a month (average car mileage in the UK = approx 8k).
On what grounds do you make that statement??Why would any of that be true?
With a 1000 mile range, most motorists could top up their EV at the supermarket when they are shopping.
On the one hand the likes of yourself say batteries are not viable, effective or cheap.
Then on the other you predict a future where batteries are four times more capable as today and widespread in the publics car.
And charged during the average supermarket shopping period- again extreme.
Further to that - if folks are only needing to do 8,000 a year and you say they’d charge it once a month, it is supremely unlikely that their own choice of car will be one fitted with your uber Four times more powerful battery - for cost, weight and bulk practicalities.
Wouldn’t you think they’d get the 250 mile a week version ? Charging it umm, once a week?
Your economics don’t stack up and the futile imaginary arguement you created to argue against using widespread batteries suggests, ironically, that batteries will be capable of doing what you say they can’t !!
Unless, of course, Tesco has kWh on BOGOF
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
I am surprised myself, however:
Wind and solar overtake nuclear as source of UK electricity for first time ever, and Greenhouse gas emissions also fell by 3 per cent across the country, thanks largely to a drop in coal use.
Fake News. This may have happened for a snapshot period but the truth is:Wind and solar overtake nuclear as source of UK electricity for first time ever, and Greenhouse gas emissions also fell by 3 per cent across the country, thanks largely to a drop in coal use.
Average over past day
Nuclear 22.6%
Renewables 14.9%
the past month
Nuclear 22.4%
Renewables 16.7%
and the past year
Nuclear 22.8%
Renewables 17.5%
Source
rscott said:
rolando said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
“Last Year”
Not the last 12 months.
If you can read my post (and the source) I said "the past year"Not the last 12 months.
rolando said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
I am surprised myself, however:
Wind and solar overtake nuclear as source of UK electricity for first time ever, and Greenhouse gas emissions also fell by 3 per cent across the country, thanks largely to a drop in coal use.
Note: "Wind & Solar overtake nuclear"Wind and solar overtake nuclear as source of UK electricity for first time ever, and Greenhouse gas emissions also fell by 3 per cent across the country, thanks largely to a drop in coal use.
I may have included other renewables in what I said, which makes Paddy's original claim even more outlandish.
rolando said:
rscott said:
rolando said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
“Last Year”
Not the last 12 months.
If you can read my post (and the source) I said "the past year"Not the last 12 months.
rolando said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
I am surprised myself, however:
Wind and solar overtake nuclear as source of UK electricity for first time ever, and Greenhouse gas emissions also fell by 3 per cent across the country, thanks largely to a drop in coal use.
Note: "Wind & Solar overtake nuclear"Wind and solar overtake nuclear as source of UK electricity for first time ever, and Greenhouse gas emissions also fell by 3 per cent across the country, thanks largely to a drop in coal use.
I may have included other renewables in what I said, which makes Paddy's original claim even more outlandish.
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
When EVs achieve a range of 1000 miles or so, most people will only plug in once a month (average car mileage in the UK = approx 8k).
On what grounds do you make that statement??Why would any of that be true?
With a 1000 mile range, most motorists could top up their EV at the supermarket when they are shopping.
On the one hand the likes of yourself say batteries are not viable, effective or cheap.
Then on the other you predict a future where batteries are four times more capable as today and widespread in the publics car.
And charged during the average supermarket shopping period- again extreme.
Further to that - if folks are only needing to do 8,000 a year and you say they’d charge it once a month, it is supremely unlikely that their own choice of car will be one fitted with your uber Four times more powerful battery - for cost, weight and bulk practicalities.
Wouldn’t you think they’d get the 250 mile a week version ? Charging it umm, once a week?
Your economics don’t stack up and the futile imaginary arguement you created to argue against using widespread batteries suggests, ironically, that batteries will be capable of doing what you say they can’t !!
Tesla could probably build an EV with a thousand mile range this year.
Why would you need 4x battery power?
Evanivitch said:
V8 Fettler said:
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
When EVs achieve a range of 1000 miles or so, most people will only plug in once a month (average car mileage in the UK = approx 8k).
On what grounds do you make that statement??Why would any of that be true?
With a 1000 mile range, most motorists could top up their EV at the supermarket when they are shopping.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/01/w...
V8 Fettler said:
Do you not realise that "once a month" is less than "several times a week"? Many consumers currently visit more than once a month, but they don't top up their diesel shopping car every visit.
Because they'd have to be stood there with their car at a diesel pump.A 1000 mile EV is not likely to be viable or necessary for the wider population so it's an unrealistic obstacle to wider EV ownership.
Instead it's more likely EV owners could charge their car whilst they shop for 30-60 mins
wombleh said:
UK nuclear fleet is at 2/3 capacity at the moment due to outages (planned ones). That's still good news though.
Actually, 3/4 online today, 4 generating units off out of 16.Solar was high yesterday, but wind was almost absent with gas doing almost half of the countries generation.
However, we take one unit off for statutory maintenance on star wars day !, followed by weeks of not being able to park in the carpark
Gary C said:
Actually, 3/4 online today, 4 generating units off out of 16.
Was going on this, one come back in last few days?https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/dai...
However the figures were from last year so it wasn't particularly relevant anyway!
Edited by wombleh on Sunday 22 April 14:53
Evanivitch said:
V8 Fettler said:
Do you not realise that "once a month" is less than "several times a week"? Many consumers currently visit more than once a month, but they don't top up their diesel shopping car every visit.
Because they'd have to be stood there with their car at a diesel pump.A 1000 mile EV is not likely to be viable or necessary for the wider population so it's an unrealistic obstacle to wider EV ownership.
Instead it's more likely EV owners could charge their car whilst they shop for 30-60 mins
Paddy_N_Murphy said:
V8 Fettler said:
Batteries are useful in many applications, although large scale energy storage to support the national grid isn't one of them
Why?rxe said:
The battery is of the order of 100 MWh - source here:
https://electrek.co/2018/01/23/tesla-giant-battery...
Demand in the UK on a Winter's evening - something like 40 GWh.
0.1/40 = 0.0025 of an hour, or 9 seconds. So, you're spot on, my estimate of 2 minutes was an order of magnitude out. The Tesla battery could power the UK for 9 seconds.
As to catching fire - well, you try discharging a Li-ion at 3600/9 C = 400C, and see how hot it gets.
Or are you concerned about the money? This 9 second battery cost about 50 million USD - that's what Musk said it would cost him to lose the bet, so I have no idea of that is the cost of materials, or the installed cost. Either way, we need more than 9 seconds. Let's say that we have a 24 hour reserve , so we need (24 x 3600)/9 times the battery, that's 9600 times bigger, or of the order of USD 480 billion.
Now realistically, we'll need more than 24 hours of backup, so you're looking at something of the order of a trillion dollars worth of batteries. That's close to half the GDP of the UK. That will certainly have an economic impact.
Then you have to load on the cost of sufficient renewables to not only power the UK, but charge the battery at the same time. That won't be cheap either...[quote]
https://electrek.co/2018/01/23/tesla-giant-battery...
Demand in the UK on a Winter's evening - something like 40 GWh.
0.1/40 = 0.0025 of an hour, or 9 seconds. So, you're spot on, my estimate of 2 minutes was an order of magnitude out. The Tesla battery could power the UK for 9 seconds.
As to catching fire - well, you try discharging a Li-ion at 3600/9 C = 400C, and see how hot it gets.
Or are you concerned about the money? This 9 second battery cost about 50 million USD - that's what Musk said it would cost him to lose the bet, so I have no idea of that is the cost of materials, or the installed cost. Either way, we need more than 9 seconds. Let's say that we have a 24 hour reserve , so we need (24 x 3600)/9 times the battery, that's 9600 times bigger, or of the order of USD 480 billion.
Now realistically, we'll need more than 24 hours of backup, so you're looking at something of the order of a trillion dollars worth of batteries. That's close to half the GDP of the UK. That will certainly have an economic impact.
Then you have to load on the cost of sufficient renewables to not only power the UK, but charge the battery at the same time. That won't be cheap either...[quote]
V8 Fettler said:
Evanivitch said:
V8 Fettler said:
Do you not realise that "once a month" is less than "several times a week"? Many consumers currently visit more than once a month, but they don't top up their diesel shopping car every visit.
Because they'd have to be stood there with their car at a diesel pump.A 1000 mile EV is not likely to be viable or necessary for the wider population so it's an unrealistic obstacle to wider EV ownership.
Instead it's more likely EV owners could charge their car whilst they shop for 30-60 mins
Again, most UK drivers do considerably less than 1000 miles a week. And most UK residents go to a shop/gym/social point at least once a week.
Evanivitch said:
V8 Fettler said:
Evanivitch said:
V8 Fettler said:
Do you not realise that "once a month" is less than "several times a week"? Many consumers currently visit more than once a month, but they don't top up their diesel shopping car every visit.
Because they'd have to be stood there with their car at a diesel pump.A 1000 mile EV is not likely to be viable or necessary for the wider population so it's an unrealistic obstacle to wider EV ownership.
Instead it's more likely EV owners could charge their car whilst they shop for 30-60 mins
Again, most UK drivers do considerably less than 1000 miles a week. And most UK residents go to a shop/gym/social point at least once a week.
Recharging once a week isn't mandatory if the EV doesn't need a recharge.
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