The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[PRTVR]

LongQ said:

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

LongQ -

Offshore wind contracting: http://voiceofrenewables.com/wind/almost-100-contr...


Warm and Fuzzy feelings ;-)

That PR piece has no content at all that refers to what I was writing about.

The map that accompanies the piece suggests that particular scheme is very nearly onshore. No wonder they want to put out a positive economic message.

What are you saying "the voice of renewables" could be biased, surely not.

[wc98]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

LongQ -

Offshore wind contracting: http://voiceofrenewables.com/wind/almost-100-contr...


Warm and Fuzzy feelings ;-)

looking at that map where are they going to park all the vessels that aren't working due to the downturn in the oil industry at the moment ? it often looks rammed with boats at anchor. quite surprised how close to shore the wtg appear to be going,get some bloody big seas up there in winter with a lot of current to cause issues with scouring. no doubt all been looked at by people that know what they are doing already though.

[turbobloke]

Just finished reading an FT article - link below for those who can access it - which pointed out that the State (us, the taxpayer) removes the market risk that MWh produced by wind or solar operators won't find a buyer. Government-backed contracts assure renewable energy generators a market for their product at a guaranteed price.

State-backed transactions involving hidden extra transfers of wealth from consumers to providers, an underlying build-up of systemic costs (additional 'network expenses'), no incentive for providers to reduce costs, and more besides, add to the catalogue of woe while (former Prof) Hughes is on the money again when pointing out that balancing costs are likely to increase to £80/MWh within the next 10 years for substantial periods each year, a massive hidden subsidy for renewables operators above and beyond the overt subsidies they already receive.

Holy stitched-up gilt-edged market distortions batman. Read it and weep / pay up.

https://www.ft.com/content/6c9a53f4-8597-11e7-8bb1...

[turbobloke]

So pathetic it's funny.

Nothing is hidden - you just don't like seeing it and can't take the reality when data shows how pointless, expensive and distortional the unreliables industry is. Plenty of people have access to the 'hidden' content, at least one has access cherry picking the bland paras then looking the other way.

We don't have to fork out for the mess as taxpayers, but obviously as long as mainstream politicians remain hooked to the green blob we'll continue to pay through the nose, enriching the operators (and land owners like CMD's rich FiL) in a twisted market.

It's all there as posted and as usual there's no substantive reply just the expected motherload of blarney shooting at any passing messenger.

[AW111]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Well, it is- its behind the paywall of the FT - you even say that in the original post.

Cut n paste the entire article or find a way for us to read it....
I am guessing though if about 'rich land owners' its boillocks and about small volume onshore stuff?

The post did have "unreliables" and "green blob", so we know its from agent tb and he's not writing under duress.

[Gary C]

Jinx said:

Good news if you like jellyfish!

Had a report from the barrow wind farm a couple of years ago that the barrel jellyfish were swarming so much that they could almost walk from turbine to turbine.

Few weeks later we lost one main Cooling Water pump due to screen blockage with oyster jellyfish, millions of them.

Never happend before in the thirty years I've worked here, now us and torness have had problems with jellyfish influx. Expert advice though seems to blame sea warming.

Had to dig out 400 tonnes of mussels from the culverts in 2010 too..

Quick question then, as of 2018 prices, what are wind farms getting for their electricity ?

And as a correction to an earlier post, it looks like we managed to out turn £43/MWHr in 2017, mainly on direct contracts, but it's gas that drives the price.

Edited by Gary C on Saturday 17th February 14:41

[Gary C]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Gary C said:

Quick question then, as of 2018 prices, what are wind farms getting for their electricity ?

As in Windfarm and what price do they get for energy they are producing this year in 2018 ?
Whatever was agreed under the different schemes and regimes the sites were signed up at.

The £117 CFD price of East Anglia has yet been built / producing.
The £57 prices 'awarded' and contracted last year won't be producing until 2019/2020

Aren't they all at 2012 prices. For example what are bow getting in 2018?

[WatchfulEye]

Gary C said:

Aren't they all at 2012 prices. For example what are bow getting in 2018?

Under the CfD system, they are all currently at 2012 monetary value. The strike price is adjusted at the end of March to take account of January's CPI measure.

In general, at present this means an uplift of 7.2% over the stated strike price.

You can check the CfD register and see what price is currently being paid - note that there are other reasons for strike price adjustment, other than inflation, so the prices being paid differ from the simplified calculation of just using CPI.

https://lowcarboncontracts.uk/cfds

The T&C for the CfDs which give a more detailed account of how and why the strike price can be adjusted, as well as the contract text (not very interesting) can be found at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/contrac...

(Edited as direct links didn't work)

Edited by WatchfulEye on Saturday 17th February 20:36

[Gary C]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Gary C said:

Aren't they all at 2012 prices. For example what are bow getting in 2018?

It doesn't / didn't work like that.

Rather than get misquoted you will see how it played out here :
https://ore.catapult.org.uk/press-releases/cost-of...

Doesn't work like what ?, they get paid don't they

Just wanted an idea of what they actually got last year per MWhr in their pockets as a comparison.

[wc98]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

As in Windfarm and what price do they get for energy they are producing this year in 2018 ?
Whatever was agreed under the different schemes and regimes the sites were signed up at.

The £117 CFD price of East Anglia has yet been built / producing.
The £57 prices 'awarded' and contracted last year won't be producing until 2019/2020

i need that explaining a bit clearer. the hornsea prices shown in the link from watchful eye for the future time period you state are nearly 3 fold that £57 ?

[WatchfulEye]

wc98 said:

i need that explaining a bit clearer. the hornsea prices shown in the link from watchful eye for the future time period you state are nearly 3 fold that £57 ?

There are 2 hornsea projects, so it's probably just a bit of confusion.

The Hornsea 2 project bid a strike price of £57/MWh - but that was for 2023-4 delivery (2023 for phase 1).

Also allocated in the round 2 CfD auction was Moray East (£57) for 2022-3 delivery (2022 for phase 1), and Triton Knoll (£74.75) for 2022-23 delivery (2022 phase 1).

Edited by WatchfulEye on Sunday 18th February 18:59

[LongQ]

WatchfulEye said:

wc98 said:

i need that explaining a bit clearer. the hornsea prices shown in the link from watchful eye for the future time period you state are nearly 3 fold that £57 ?

There are 2 hornsea projects, so it's probably just a bit of confusion.

The Hornsea 2 project bid a strike price of £57/MWh - but that was for 2023-4 delivery (2023 for phase 1).

Also allocated in the round 2 CfD auction was Moray East (£57) for 2022-3 delivery (2022 for phase 1), and Triton Knoll (£74.75) for 2022-23 delivery (2022 phase 1).

Edited by WatchfulEye on Sunday 18th February 18:59

Those amounts, if I read it correctly, are in 2012 £ values which I guess means the actual amounts in today £s are that + inflation and further index linked to whenever the 15 year period is deemed to start and then continue for its term. The CfD auctions work to 2012 £ basis values.

Frustratingly the Catapult PR about the CRMD report uses the CRMD report's 2011 £ value basis, according to a footnote.

It would be really useful if everyone could come up with numbers based on the same reference point or at least provide a conversion if only via the conversion table they use.

[Gary C]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Hence why I said its not so straight forward

Which is why I wondered if anyone knows what they turned out at. The finding of the figure is probably hard, but it must exist

[V8 Fettler]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Hence why I said its not so straight forward

Smoke and mirrors involving unreliables? Perish the thought.

[PRTVR]

Nice picture of an old decommissioned brown coal power station, not unlike Germany is building, as for mirrors, will it work in Redcar I think not.

By the way what did you do down boulby mine to lead it to shut down.

[Toltec]

PRTVR said:

Nice picture of an old decommissioned brown coal power station, not unlike Germany is building, as for mirrors, will it work in Redcar I think not.

By the way what did you do down boulby mine to lead it to shut down.

I was wondering what part of the UK that solar array was and what happened when the tide came in.

[LongQ]

Apparently there is a second paper from Mark Jacobsen outlining how the world, or most of it, can change to WWS generated power (Wind, Water and Sunlight) by around 2050.

At the same time this would work out to be cheaper or at least no more expensive than BAU and create a net gain of around 24million jobs.

Sadly this paper is paywalled by Elsevier.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...


"Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes"

Does anyone have access or know of another source for the contents?


ETA:

Found this which looks like the same with outline formatting.

http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articl...

Edited by LongQ on Monday 19th February 16:10

[turbobloke]

LongQ said:

Apparently there is a second paper from Mark Jacobsen outlining how the world, or most of it, can change to WWS generated power (Wind, Water and Sunlight) by around 2050.

At the same time this would work out to be cheaper or at least no more expensive than BAU and create a net gain of around 24million jobs.

Sadly this paper is paywalled by Elsevier.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...


"Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes"

Does anyone have access or know of another source for the contents?


ETA:

Found this which looks like the same with outline formatting.

http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articl...

I've read a copy previously and as the pdf link demonstrates, it's inevitably modelling and simulations.

Narrative around the claimed >42% demand reduction (!) involved is phrased curiously. Some of the reduction occurs naturally as e.g. mining and transportation of other fuels stops, but some is supposedly policy and efficiency. Load limiting smart meters will help with that Microwave or ketttle, TV or lighting, decisions decisions. Or rather assumptions decisions decisions...which reminds me.

Jacobsen appears unable to cope well with peer scrutiny. Late last year he filed a $10 million lawsuit against the peer-reviewed scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and a group of scientists (Clack et al.) for getting their study published.

The Clack et al heresy stated with reasoning that Jacobson et al made false assumptions in order to claim that future USA energy needs could be met exclusively by renewable energy, which brings us back to WWS as per the Jacobsen article.

Here's part of the tit-for-tatting, both links go to pdf files.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/16103...

http://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploa...

[Glade]

Analysis - Political Electricity - @bbcradio4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09rx4z9

This is on now... quite interesting!

[wc98]

an interesting look at energy prices post the australian renewable energy revolution. http://joannenova.com.au/2018/02/electricity-price...