The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[wst]

V8 Fettler said:

wst said:

V8 Fettler said:

How does the "no coal" solution work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

I didn't realise the wind stopped when it was cold. Those pesky meteorologists with their "wind chill factors" are making it up again.

Cold spells are frequently associated with low wind

That isn't a graph showing a lull in wind. That's a graph showing a lull in wind-powered electricity generation.

[V8 Fettler]

wst said:

V8 Fettler said:

wst said:

V8 Fettler said:

How does the "no coal" solution work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

I didn't realise the wind stopped when it was cold. Those pesky meteorologists with their "wind chill factors" are making it up again.

Cold spells are frequently associated with low wind

That isn't a graph showing a lull in wind. That's a graph showing a lull in wind-powered electricity generation.

If you need some explanation: for the period in question, the reduction in wind-powered generation was caused by the lull in wind at the wind turbine sites. Do you understand that wind turbines require wind to generate electricity?

Do you know how the "no coal" solution would work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

[V8 Fettler]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

V8 Fettler said:

Cold spells are frequently associated with low wind

How far offshore were you thinking ?

There might have been some wind in the Denmark Strait.

Are you still working on your answer to: how does the "no coal" solution work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

[rolando]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

V8 Fettler said:

There might have been some wind in the Denmark Strait.

Are you still working on your answer to: how does the "no coal" solution work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

Let’s take a look at whateverthefk you keep babbling on about data for those two years:


Can you give the offshore met mast data for the Dogger Bank, Irish sea, Humber offshore and the Zones of the 5 East Anglia Wind farms?
Oh and Which interconnectors were operation then?
Then we can have a discussion.

If you can’t, please jog on and no one here knows why you are banging on about it like a one track child’s toy.

Dodging the question, yet again. Maybe you should consider being the one to "jog on".

[powerstroke]

LongQ said:

And that is despite a reported increase of significant proportions in the population.

Now there have been a few factors that could have contributed, some related to efficiency based saving like LED lighting compared to incandescent for example, others related to the elimination of high energy consumption industries and manufacturing in general.

Someone somewhere must have done the analysis but I don't ever recall seeing a reference to anything that puts it all together.

The problem is that, as is ever the case, you pick the low hanging fruit first and everyone comes to think that the trends observed can continue for as long as needed.

So once you have shifted your manufacturing out of the country - what do you "adjust" next to retain the downward trend?

Having converted the nation's TV sets from several hundred Watts to around 70 one might think of huge gains - but not so much if you then have a TV in every room and a large range of other electronic devices - unless they somehow are offset by savings in other process that are no longer required and can be canned.

So maybe a few hundred mobile devices mean that banks can shut a branch and the net savings or energy are, on balance, reducing overall consumption.

But there comes a point when you cannot make the same significant savings any more and have to find a new source of economies.

Maybe it could be the single mug capacity kettle to stop people boiling water for hot drinks and not using it. Great. But then modern kettles don't seem to be made to last very long so there is an energy overhead for manufacturing a lot of them. Not in the UK, obviously, since we have eliminated such mundane manufacturing businesses.

But the energy to make them will be used somewhere on the planet, followed by the energy to ship them to where they will be used.

Will there ever be a point at which Power generation becomes so inexpensive and converges with low cost labour, fortifying the available productivity such that the UK become a world manufacturing centre once again?

It's not easy to envision that right now but you never know how things might develop.

One of the interesting aspects of social mobility - especially some of the signs of recent international social mobility - is that it has a form of overall equilibrium which does not seem to be in any way based on equality. A relative rise for some will see a relative decline for others.

I wonder how we will power all the electric vehicles ?? a full overnight charge for a small electric car soaks up 3 Kw for about 10 hours ... how much if they try to power lorries ???

[powerstroke]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

rolando said:

Dodging the question, yet again.

Other than Mr Coal, no one knows anything of the two winters he talks of, and with certainty the Renewables currently (and soon to be installed) did not exist.

Neither I or anyone can answer the question until he tells us the data so we can correlate against the installed generation capacity.

If he can give some data. We can answer.

All he says in the same childish way you do, the same comment again and again.

We will be building nuclear that's all the wheels or should I say sails will have to come of the wind subsidy fiasco sooner or later ...

[V8 Fettler]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

V8 Fettler said:

There might have been some wind in the Denmark Strait.

Are you still working on your answer to: how does the "no coal" solution work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

Let’s take a look at whateverthefk you keep babbling on about data for those two years:


Can you give the offshore met mast data for the Dogger Bank, Irish sea, Humber offshore and the Zones of the 5 East Anglia Wind farms?
Oh and Which interconnectors were operation then?
Then we can have a discussion.

If you can’t, please jog on and no one here knows why you are banging on about it like a one track child’s toy.

You are creating a smokescreen in an attempt to duck the issue, but I can help you with some detail:

If we experience another winter like 1947 or 1963 then - with the current solution - we run out of gas in about three weeks https://www.utilitywise.com/2018/03/06/gas-deficit...

A coherent plan to deal with a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963 requires about twenty weeks of secure energy supply. How does wind provide this?

[V8 Fettler]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

so please give the data for the Armaggedon you refer to that is know in the parts as :

"If we experience another winter like 1947 or 1963 "

What was the Met Data and Solar data for these abominable world stopping winters.

A couple of summaries:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/win...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-...

[V8 Fettler]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

rolando said:

Dodging the question, yet again.

Other than Mr Coal, no one knows anything of the two winters he talks of, and with certainty the Renewables currently (and soon to be installed) did not exist.

Neither I or anyone can answer the question until he tells us the data so we can correlate against the installed generation capacity.

If he can give some data. We can answer.

All he says in the same childish way you do, the same comment again and again.

Unreliablist attempting to re-write history, that's a surprise.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/05/coldest...

http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/in-pictures-when-w...

[rolando]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Other than Mr Coal, no one knows anything of the two winters he talks of, and with certainty the Renewables currently (and soon to be installed) did not exist.

Neither I or anyone can answer the question until he tells us the data so we can correlate against the installed generation capacity.

If he can give some data. We can answer.

All he says in the same childish way you do, the same comment again and again.

You may know nothing about the two winters in question but I was around in 1963 and witnessed and suffered from the great difficulties of the time.
I wasn't thought of in 1947 but I have a book about that winter written by my father and published by a Fleet Street organisation during the months that followed.

[silentbrown]

V8 Fettler said:

Unreliablist attempting to re-write history, that's a surprise.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/05/coldest...

Well, we know it was cold. but you've offered no useful data about how that would affect renewable generation.

[wc98]

silentbrown said:

Well, we know it was cold. but you've offered no useful data about how that would affect renewable generation.

ice build up on turbine blades might be an issue. i don't know what mitigating measures there might be in the design though. anyone know where the coldest place offshore turbines are currently installed ?

[wst]

V8 Fettler said:

wst said:

V8 Fettler said:

wst said:

V8 Fettler said:

How does the "no coal" solution work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

I didn't realise the wind stopped when it was cold. Those pesky meteorologists with their "wind chill factors" are making it up again.

Cold spells are frequently associated with low wind

That isn't a graph showing a lull in wind. That's a graph showing a lull in wind-powered electricity generation.

If you need some explanation: for the period in question, the reduction in wind-powered generation was caused by the lull in wind at the wind turbine sites. Do you understand that wind turbines require wind to generate electricity?

Do you know how the "no coal" solution would work if we have a repeat of the winters of 1947 or 1963?

Got any references to prove this? You're currently just making a claim without any proof. You are aware that wind turbines sometimes shut down due to excessive wind? That would also show a drop in your graph... but there is potential for wind turbine design to improve such that they can deal with higher wind speeds.

Or was the drop in generation caused by blade icing, or maybe they need to be a certain temperature for myriad other reasons?

You can't look at the wrong data and infer the one statistic from them that supports your prejudices.

[rxe]

Don’t have any data for wind in 47, but

1) It was winter
2) There were only 30 hours of sunshine in Feb - apparently the “second dullest Feb since records began in 1929...”

So Solar is out.

[Ali G]

I could see there being a potential problem with pumped hydro - or at least there could be if there was going to be much built...

[wc98]

Paddy_N_Murphy said:

Yeah guys ‘blade ice’ ..... really ?


You may have that on the small ‘individual’ farmers 500kw units but it is a non issue in the Power Generation of GB aspect.

And as for the Turbines shut down in strong winds.... the same applies
‘Proper’ ones don’t , but feather the angle of approach - or do we get many hurricanes here in GB that I don’t know about?

it was a genuine question , i have no idea if it is a potential issue. now i go and have a look and i find this.

“Some wind farms report up to 20% annual energy production losses due to icing,” says Matthew Wadham-Gagnon, a Project Manager at TechnoCentre éolien (TCE). TCE is a Canadian organization that supports wind-industry development through research, technology transfer, and technical assistance for business. “In addition to production losses, ice accretion can affect the structural design load case of a blade, as well as other components in a wind turbine.”

“Icing could have a significant effect on the annual production of a wind project. It depends on the frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of icing which varies from year to year, site to site, and turbine to turbine,” says Wadham-Gagnon.

At first, cold climates presented a small, niche market for wind-turbine OEMs. Only recently have choices in ice-protection systems (IPS) for turbines become available to wind-farm developers and operators. “There are a number of IPS proposed with some offered by OEMs and third parties,” says Wadham-Gagnon. “These include passive systems such as icephobic [or ice-resistant] coatings, and active ones such as hot air or electro-thermal systems.”

A passive system, usually a coating or spray, is applied to the surface of turbine blades to minimize icing and maximize heat absorption. “The concept of icephobic coatings is appealing because of their low cost and high efficiency for preventing ice build-up on blades,” Wadham-Gagnon says. “However, while some coatings show promise, most if not all are still a few years away from showing their full potential.” These systems also typically require some maintenance or re-application over time, or after a serious icing event. This means sending a wind tech up-tower, which is not ideal in winter conditions.

Carrier equipped company’s Eurocopter AS350 B3 chopper with a Simplex Aerial Cleaning and De-Icing System. It is designed for maintaining turbine blades and power lines that experience icing events. Carrier says it is composed of a high-strength, low-weight composite water tank and high-pressure spray boom that can be sprayed over icy blades. “This product is used after an icing event has occurred,” he explains.
https://www.windpowerengineering.com/business-news...

while i am not suggesting we will be seeing canadian arctic conditions in the uk anytime soon it appears it is an issue. the aforementioned winters would indeed provide the conditions where it could happen. to be fair, when global warming kicks in any day now the new mediterranean climate in the north sea should make this a non issue .

[Toltec]

powerstroke said:

I wonder how we will power all the electric vehicles ?? a full overnight charge for a small electric car soaks up 3 Kw for about 10 hours ... how much if they try to power lorries ???

This has been covered before, it is better to consider total daily mileage and the energy used than the size of battery packs in individual vehicles. While individual vehicles may be plugged in for a full overnight charge others will not be connected at all or only to top up the last few days use.

[Toltec]

wc98 said:

while i am not suggesting we will be seeing canadian arctic conditions in the uk anytime soon it appears it is an issue. the aforementioned winters would indeed provide the conditions where it could happen. to be fair, when global warming kicks in any day now the new mediterranean climate in the north sea should make this a non issue .

I thought the idea was that warming would turn off the North Atlantic Conveyor/Gulf Stream and therefore the UK would become colder for quite some time before global warming would then heat us up again.

[Ali G]

Yup - terryfing tales no 666 from the vaults of the CAGW djinn.

The world stops spinning...

[wc98]

Toltec said:

I thought the idea was that warming would turn off the North Atlantic Conveyor/Gulf Stream and therefore the UK would become colder for quite some time before global warming would then heat us up again.

i'm totally confused now, i was planning a new central scotland vineyard for 2020. will i have to postpone it for a while .