The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain
Discussion
turbobloke said:
The UK won't stop (yet).
Green Energy, Magical Thinking
Link
PDF
Hydrocarbons - oil, natural gas, and coal - are the world’s principal energy resource today and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future. Wind turbines, solar arrays, and batteries, meanwhile, constitute a small source of energy, and physics dictates that they will remain so. This paper highlights the physics of energy to illustrate why there is no possibility that the world is undergoing or can undergo a near-term transition to a “new energy economy".
Mark P. Mills, Manhattan Institute, 26 March 2019
No mention of Nuclear Power in the mix? why ? Green Energy, Magical Thinking
Link
Hydrocarbons - oil, natural gas, and coal - are the world’s principal energy resource today and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future. Wind turbines, solar arrays, and batteries, meanwhile, constitute a small source of energy, and physics dictates that they will remain so. This paper highlights the physics of energy to illustrate why there is no possibility that the world is undergoing or can undergo a near-term transition to a “new energy economy".
Mark P. Mills, Manhattan Institute, 26 March 2019
Is Bloomberg a trusted source?
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-powers-latest-...
Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas
"London and New York, March 26, 2019 – Two technologies that were immature and expensive only a few years ago but are now at the center of the unfolding low-carbon energy transition have seen spectacular gains in cost-competitiveness in the last year.
The latest analysis by research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that the benchmark levelized cost of electricity,[1] or LCOE, for lithium-ion batteries has fallen 35% to $187 per megawatt-hour since the first half of 2018. Meanwhile, the benchmark LCOE for offshore wind has tumbled by 24%."
Hmmm, the new world order - of Wind turning Water in to Hydrogen, and Batteries are viable.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-powers-latest-...
Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas
"London and New York, March 26, 2019 – Two technologies that were immature and expensive only a few years ago but are now at the center of the unfolding low-carbon energy transition have seen spectacular gains in cost-competitiveness in the last year.
The latest analysis by research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that the benchmark levelized cost of electricity,[1] or LCOE, for lithium-ion batteries has fallen 35% to $187 per megawatt-hour since the first half of 2018. Meanwhile, the benchmark LCOE for offshore wind has tumbled by 24%."
Hmmm, the new world order - of Wind turning Water in to Hydrogen, and Batteries are viable.
WhatHappenedThere said:
Turbo bloke :
Given you're resorting to playground tactics it's a fair assumption you know you've already lost the argument and have nothing rational to add.I rarely need to use Google, which is a valuable tool nonetheless, as I have access to research literature and get news feeds on matters related to climate and energy policies. Be wary of assuming others use your own tactics. That's assuming you're not misreading a suggestion to access Google RE<C as a prompt for online searching, it's not. Google RE<C is an investigation and report by the company itself which catalogued using science and engineering the ultimate failure of renewables, contrary to the hopes and expectations of those working on the project.
A couple of general points.
Apart from those confusing opinion and evidence, there are others who cite cost in this context when most often they should refer to price, not the same thing when the renewables industry is allowed to avoid costs more so than other energy generation processes. A reasonably comprehensive list of costs for wind power has been posted (by me) several times and various constituent items have never been addressed, only avoided by renewables enthusiasts / vested interests, and often by employing childish responses such as yours.
As above, Google's engineers and scientists showed that, at decarbonisation levels of foolishness, renewables cannot work. Get the Google RE<C report and have a read. Or find any rational commentary on it and do likewise. Until then, post as many pictures as you like as it won't help your position one jot as you'll remain unaware of the relevant evidence,as opposed to opinion.
turbobloke said:
As above, Google's engineers and scientists showed that, at decarbonisation levels of foolishness, renewables cannot work. Get the Google RE<C report and have a read. Or find any rational commentary on it and do likewise. Until then, post as many pictures as you like as it won't help your position one jot as you'll remain unaware of the relevant evidence,as opposed to opinion.
Except RE<C's aim was to develop a new technology that was cheaper and dispatchable like coal. They realised that it wasn't possible in the 4 year scope of the scheme and that replacing coal power stations alone was not going to reverse climate change.The research was not a critique of existing renewables, their costs or their effectiveness.
WhatHappenedThere said:
Is Bloomberg a trusted source?
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-powers-latest-...
Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas
"London and New York, March 26, 2019 – Two technologies that were immature and expensive only a few years ago but are now at the center of the unfolding low-carbon energy transition have seen spectacular gains in cost-competitiveness in the last year.
The latest analysis by research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that the benchmark levelized cost of electricity,[1] or LCOE, for lithium-ion batteries has fallen 35% to $187 per megawatt-hour since the first half of 2018. Meanwhile, the benchmark LCOE for offshore wind has tumbled by 24%."
Hmmm, the new world order - of Wind turning Water in to Hydrogen, and Batteries are viable.
The rate at which battery prices are dropping is impressive certainly, but $187/MWh seems still quite a bit short of viable to me. The Drax site (https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?&_k=zfxe8p) shared by someone earlier shows that the price paid in the UK at least is rarely above $100/MWh. https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-powers-latest-...
Battery Power’s Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas
"London and New York, March 26, 2019 – Two technologies that were immature and expensive only a few years ago but are now at the center of the unfolding low-carbon energy transition have seen spectacular gains in cost-competitiveness in the last year.
The latest analysis by research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that the benchmark levelized cost of electricity,[1] or LCOE, for lithium-ion batteries has fallen 35% to $187 per megawatt-hour since the first half of 2018. Meanwhile, the benchmark LCOE for offshore wind has tumbled by 24%."
Hmmm, the new world order - of Wind turning Water in to Hydrogen, and Batteries are viable.
Furthermore, it isn't clear from the article but I expect that battery cost is additional to the cost of the energy which has to go into the battery in the first place, so wind energy at $100/MWh into a battery at $187/MWh needs to be sold at $287/MWh before it can be called viable, AIUI.
Condi said:
His conclusions about peak demand going up are also simply wrong - peak demand in the UK has been falling for the last 10 years, and the investments into batteries, intelligent chargers, pumped storage and vehicle to grid systems will mean better utilisation of power to manage the peaks and troughs. And finally, his last argument about continued demand increases is not something being seen in the UK either. As well as peak demand, average demand has been falling as well.
It's a very long report which I haven't found time to read fully yet but is it not the case that electrical demand will go up with continuing penetration of EVs and heat pumps etc.?Condi said:
...
EDIT - BP in their recently published Global outlook forecast by 2040 28% of primary energy will come from renewable sources, and that 25% of vehicle miles will be electrically powered.
Trafigura - one of the largest private trading houses in the world and responsible for billions of barrels of oil sales per year expects peak oil demand to be by 2030, but warns it could be sooner.
The oil companies may be starting to hedge, but this is mostly an exercise in PR and they are being lobbied internally by green shareholders. This has been in the press but I'm struggling to find a link.EDIT - BP in their recently published Global outlook forecast by 2040 28% of primary energy will come from renewable sources, and that 25% of vehicle miles will be electrically powered.
Trafigura - one of the largest private trading houses in the world and responsible for billions of barrels of oil sales per year expects peak oil demand to be by 2030, but warns it could be sooner.
Credible people have been predicting peak oil being just around the corner since the beginning of the industry. So far most of them have been wrong... There's a lot of good innovation happening, but demand for hydrocarbons continues to grow.
turbobloke said:
Google RE<C is an investigation and report by the company itself which catalogued using science and engineering the ultimate failure of renewables, contrary to the hopes and expectations of those working on the project.
A couple of general points.
Apart from those confusing opinion and evidence, there are others who cite cost in this context when most often they should refer to price, not the same thing when the renewables industry is allowed to avoid costs more so than other energy generation processes. A reasonably comprehensive list of costs for wind power has been posted (by me) several times and various constituent items have never been addressed, only avoided by renewables enthusiasts / vested interests, and often by employing childish responses such as yours.
As above, Google's engineers and scientists showed that, at decarbonisation levels of foolishness, renewables cannot work. Get the Google RE<C report and have a read. Or find any rational commentary on it and do likewise. Until then, post as many pictures as you like as it won't help your position one jot as you'll remain unaware of the relevant evidence,as opposed to opinion.
Study was launched 2007.A couple of general points.
Apart from those confusing opinion and evidence, there are others who cite cost in this context when most often they should refer to price, not the same thing when the renewables industry is allowed to avoid costs more so than other energy generation processes. A reasonably comprehensive list of costs for wind power has been posted (by me) several times and various constituent items have never been addressed, only avoided by renewables enthusiasts / vested interests, and often by employing childish responses such as yours.
As above, Google's engineers and scientists showed that, at decarbonisation levels of foolishness, renewables cannot work. Get the Google RE<C report and have a read. Or find any rational commentary on it and do likewise. Until then, post as many pictures as you like as it won't help your position one jot as you'll remain unaware of the relevant evidence,as opposed to opinion.
Discontinued in 2014.
You either are intentionally misleading, or are not well enough informed of the current and the future sufficiently.
In contrast to the paper published on the previous page which focussed on the scale of renewables roll out.
McKinsey, a global management consulting firm predicts a major shift with 50% of power generation being renewable by 2035.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/ou...
Global advisory and certification comany DNV GL forecasts a similar shift in power generation and oil demand (not production) peaking in the 2020s
https://eto.dnvgl.com/2018/#Timeline
These are not just finger in the air scenarios.
McKinsey, a global management consulting firm predicts a major shift with 50% of power generation being renewable by 2035.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/ou...
Global advisory and certification comany DNV GL forecasts a similar shift in power generation and oil demand (not production) peaking in the 2020s
https://eto.dnvgl.com/2018/#Timeline
These are not just finger in the air scenarios.
Having posted news of a report about the magical dreamworld nature of a rapid global green energy transition and stalled renewables development, with wider findings in agreement with the RE<C results (renewables are not the solution) it turns out there was a GWPF report - at least one threader will love it 
- on storage inadequacy last month. This may be a pearoast but it'll offer a useful reminder for blinkered renewables enthusiasts.
PDF here
- on storage inadequacy last month. This may be a pearoast but it'll offer a useful reminder for blinkered renewables enthusiasts.Prof Ponton said:
Wind and solar power are not available on demand and there are no technologies to make them so. Refusing to face these inconvenient facts poses a serious threat to our energy security.
Fantasy robotic windfarms with self-erecting turbines can't cut it, so the non-existent technology for which the faithful have their fingers crossed will need to go beyond that. Suggestions on a postcard, or even on this thread.PDF here
Quite interesting to read that Google claim their entire operation (both offices and data centres) is powered by 100% renewable energy. They're the largest corporate buyer of renewable energy in the world.
https://sustainability.google/projects/announcemen...
https://sustainability.google/projects/announcemen...
turbobloke said:
Having posted news of a report about the magical dreamworld nature of a rapid global green energy transition and stalled renewables development, with wider findings in agreement with the RE<C results (renewables are not the solution) it turns out there was a GWPF report - at least one threader will love it - on storage inadequacy last month. This may be a pearoast but it'll offer a useful reminder for blinkered renewables enthusiasts.
PDF here
You've said that already. And it also is wrong. - on storage inadequacy last month. This may be a pearoast but it'll offer a useful reminder for blinkered renewables enthusiasts.Prof Ponton said:
Wind and solar power are not available on demand and there are no technologies to make them so. Refusing to face these inconvenient facts poses a serious threat to our energy security.
Fantasy robotic windfarms with self-erecting turbines can't cut it, so the non-existent technology for which the faithful have their fingers crossed will need to go beyond that. Suggestions on a postcard, or even on this thread.PDF here
Why can you not read the other links posted here about making Hydrogen. Batteries ?
Jambo85 said:
Condi said:
His conclusions about peak demand going up are also simply wrong - peak demand in the UK has been falling for the last 10 years, and the investments into batteries, intelligent chargers, pumped storage and vehicle to grid systems will mean better utilisation of power to manage the peaks and troughs. And finally, his last argument about continued demand increases is not something being seen in the UK either. As well as peak demand, average demand has been falling as well.
It's a very long report which I haven't found time to read fully yet but is it not the case that electrical demand will go up with continuing penetration of EVs and heat pumps etc.?rscott said:
Quite interesting to read that Google claim their entire operation (both offices and data centres) is powered by 100% renewable energy. They're the largest corporate buyer of renewable energy in the world.
https://sustainability.google/projects/announcemen...
and Lego :https://sustainability.google/projects/announcemen...
LEGO reaches 100% renewable energy target three years ahead of schedule
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/l...
WhatHappenedThere said:
rscott said:
Quite interesting to read that Google claim their entire operation (both offices and data centres) is powered by 100% renewable energy. They're the largest corporate buyer of renewable energy in the world.
https://sustainability.google/projects/announcemen...
and Lego :https://sustainability.google/projects/announcemen...
LEGO reaches 100% renewable energy target three years ahead of schedule
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/l...
Onwards and upwards.
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