The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[alangla]

Condi said:

Ratcliffe have been running nights over the weekend.

Would they actually get paid for that? I thought night spot rates were generally extremely low, especially over a weekend. I'm surprised they're burning anything at all at this time of year, especially given the weather - isn't there more cash to be had by attempting to keep the remaining coal for one more winter run?
One thing I do note - wind energy output this month seems to have been pretty poor, looks like it's mainly CCGT, nuclear, by day, solar and imports that's contributing most, in that order.

[wc98]

The3rdDukeofB said:

Didn’t you understand?

Immaturity.


So purile and juvenile.
If that’s your thing in what is meant to be in a grown-ups conversation- well then you too are part of the problem


with this thread.

oh sorry, i didn't realise maturity was a prerequisite of being able to reply to the thread.

[wc98]

Wayoftheflower said:

wc98 said:

The3rdDukeofB said:

Do you actually think it is either clever, true or funny posting that ‘drive a V8’ crap?

It’s all a bit ‘annoying Colin’ isn’t it ?
Immature.

yep, it's funny and true, going by the greening of the planet from the increase in atmospheric co2 from around 280ppm to just over 400ppm. do you have a problem with that ?

As ever, It's complicated, a pity some people love to discuss complex problems in soundbites.

christ almighty, that article should be used as the definition of whataboutery. there is also the added benefit that plants need less water with higher atmospheric co2 levels and 550ppm won't be seen in my or your life time never mind mid century in 30 years time at the current rate of increase.

yes i know certain types of plants do not see the benefits of others, but the ones we rely on for food do.given co2 was in the thousands of ppm when the greatest level of plant life on earth was experienced, in a period that created the matter that eventually gave us that nice black stuff that this forum is based on, i won't be worrying about hundreds of ppm any time soon.

[Wayoftheflower]

wc98 said:

Wayoftheflower said:

As ever, It's complicated, a pity some people love to discuss complex problems in soundbites.

christ almighty, that article should be used as the definition of whataboutery.

I'll answer in the CC-PD thread as we're diverting from the topic.

[dickymint]

Wayoftheflower said:

wc98 said:

Wayoftheflower said:

As ever, It's complicated, a pity some people love to discuss complex problems in soundbites.

christ almighty, that article should be used as the definition of whataboutery.

I'll answer in the CC-PD thread as we're diverting from the topic.

Science not politics would me more apt.

[Condi]

alangla said:

Condi said:

Ratcliffe have been running nights over the weekend.

Would they actually get paid for that? I thought night spot rates were generally extremely low, especially over a weekend. I'm surprised they're burning anything at all at this time of year, especially given the weather - isn't there more cash to be had by attempting to keep the remaining coal for one more winter run?
One thing I do note - wind energy output this month seems to have been pretty poor, looks like it's mainly CCGT, nuclear, by day, solar and imports that's contributing most, in that order.

They were running at the request (or demand) of Grid for system reasons which usually means that there is a line outage or other transmission constraint. To some extent if you have a station behind a system constraint and Grid need the unit you can almost name your price.

Prices were £90 when grid paid for the warming (£6k per hour for a few hours) and £114 when RWE warmed a unit themselves, which is more than winter market prices, but given the units were cold (Monday night especially so), is its not unreasonable.

Wind output generally falls in summer, its not as windy!

[Gary C]

Condi said:

For anyone interest, and especially for those who would like to believe coal is nice and reliable, the recent coal dispatches have been pretty poor...

Ratcliffe have been running nights over the weekend.

Friday night they tripped at 5am and didnt return.
Saturday ran as expected
Sunday the unit failed before it even generated anything
Monday tripped at 1am and returned at 5am.

Out of the last 3 times Fiddlers ran they tripped once, failed once (never came on at all) and ran as expected once.


So across 2 different stations, owned by different companies, the average reliability has been almost exactly 50%.


At this rate RWE are not going to persist with Ratcliffe, and SSE have already called time on Fiddlers. If there was no coal on the ground all the coal sets would have already shut, they are only holding out for higher power prices to try and recover some value against what has already been bought.

The level of investment at these stations will be all but zero. Its totally unfair to pickup on their reliability. If we look at their performance when they were not end of life and limping towards the end you would see a different picture.

[PRTVR]

Gary C said:

Condi said:

For anyone interest, and especially for those who would like to believe coal is nice and reliable, the recent coal dispatches have been pretty poor...

Ratcliffe have been running nights over the weekend.

Friday night they tripped at 5am and didnt return.
Saturday ran as expected
Sunday the unit failed before it even generated anything
Monday tripped at 1am and returned at 5am.

Out of the last 3 times Fiddlers ran they tripped once, failed once (never came on at all) and ran as expected once.


So across 2 different stations, owned by different companies, the average reliability has been almost exactly 50%.


At this rate RWE are not going to persist with Ratcliffe, and SSE have already called time on Fiddlers. If there was no coal on the ground all the coal sets would have already shut, they are only holding out for higher power prices to try and recover some value against what has already been bought.

The level of investment at these stations will be all but zero. Its totally unfair to pickup on their reliability. If we look at their performance when they were not end of life and limping towards the end you would see a different picture.

Also there utilisation is way off what they were designed for,they are base load generators.

[Condi]

Gary C said:

The level of investment at these stations will be all but zero. Its totally unfair to pickup on their reliability. If we look at their performance when they were not end of life and limping towards the end you would see a different picture.

Oh i know, (as pointed out above) but it is an interesting point, and just a comment on how things are at the moment. When they were new then no doubt they were much more reliable.

[turbobloke]

Green Germany On The Energy Brink?

Reuters, 18 July 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-power-su...

German gov't says: nothing to see here

Many utilities, network operators, manufacturing companies and analysts: not convinced

MeToo journalism: fossil fuels driving global warming

Empirical research not modelling: we have practically no anthropogenic climate change

(est 0.01 deg C in 100 years...IPCC climate models fail...)

Kauppinen & Malmi (2019) PDF here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

[PRTVR]

turbobloke said:

Green Germany On The Energy Brink?

Reuters, 18 July 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-power-su...

German gov't says: nothing to see here

Many utilities, network operators, manufacturing companies and analysts: not convinced

MeToo journalism: fossil fuels driving global warming

Empirical research not modelling: we have practically no anthropogenic climate change

(est 0.01 deg C in 100 years...IPCC climate models fail...)

Kauppinen & Malmi (2019) PDF here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

It as if they all read from the same hymn sheet, in the UK part of the mix is going to be "import it" Germany is the same, but with some French nuclear plant reaching their end of life, 17 could be closed by 2025 electricity could be in short supply with ever body looking to import when the wind fails to blow.

[StanleyT]

Condi said:

Gary C said:

The level of investment at these stations will be all but zero. Its totally unfair to pickup on their reliability. If we look at their performance when they were not end of life and limping towards the end you would see a different picture.

Oh i know, (as pointed out above) but it is an interesting point, and just a comment on how things are at the moment. When they were new then no doubt they were much more reliable.

Might not have been SSE or Fiddlers that knackered part of the units. A whilst ago I worked for a turbine manufacturer and on the generation side, bits of plant moved around the country. I know of one turbine train units that started life in the 1980s, went nuclear station, nuclear staion #2, refurb, coal station, refurb (possible), oil station, back to manufacturers and now in cold (or damp depending on ones description of the warehouse) as a strategic spare for a 660 Genset. So some bits could have been worn out anywhere or recently refurbed.

Surely some of keeping the coal station going must be to burn the coal stocks. Didn't Fiddlers have such a big coal stock in the Miners Strike it could remain running (helped by much of the stock is underground). If you shut the station and there is coal left is it going to get exported.

[Gary C]

StanleyT said:

Might not have been SSE or Fiddlers that knackered part of the units. A whilst ago I worked for a turbine manufacturer and on the generation side, bits of plant moved around the country. I know of one turbine train units that started life in the 1980s, went nuclear station, nuclear staion #2, refurb, coal station, refurb (possible), oil station, back to manufacturers and now in cold (or damp depending on ones description of the warehouse) as a strategic spare for a 660 Genset. So some bits could have been worn out anywhere or recently refurbed.

Surely some of keeping the coal station going must be to burn the coal stocks. Didn't Fiddlers have such a big coal stock in the Miners Strike it could remain running (helped by much of the stock is underground). If you shut the station and there is coal left is it going to get exported.

Under the CEGB we ran with huge coal stocks, but I believe the privatised stations ran with much lower stocks and with the 20,000hr limit, im sure they are being managed to be essentially zero at planned shutdown.

I know Cottham had its last ever delivery last week to run it to shutdown day.

[Condi]

StanleyT said:

If you shut the station and there is coal left is it going to get exported.

There is no market for it, not domestically anyway.

And while all the coal stations have rail heads for unloading coal, few, if any, have loading facilities. By the time you've shipped it out, paid to load it onto a vessel, and found a willing buyer (bearing in mind you are essentially a distressed seller) you may as well burn it.

[Wayoftheflower]

turbobloke said:

Green Germany On The Energy Brink?

Reuters, 18 July 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-power-su...

German gov't says: nothing to see here

Many utilities, network operators, manufacturing companies and analysts: not convinced

A well researched and balanced article raising valid points about the transition from conventional to renewables in Germany.

You don't need Breitbart/Inforwars/WUWT to put forward your point of view anymore.

[Gadgetmac]

Wayoftheflower said:

turbobloke said:

Green Germany On The Energy Brink?

Reuters, 18 July 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-power-su...

German gov't says: nothing to see here

Many utilities, network operators, manufacturing companies and analysts: not convinced

A well researched and balanced article raising valid points about the transition from conventional to renewables in Germany.

You don't need Breitbart/Inforwars/WUWT to put forward your point of view anymore.

Yeah, like thats gonna happen

[anonymous-user]

Gadgetmac said:

Wayoftheflower said:

turbobloke said:

Green Germany On The Energy Brink?

Reuters, 18 July 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-power-su...

German gov't says: nothing to see here

Many utilities, network operators, manufacturing companies and analysts: not convinced

A well researched and balanced article raising valid points about the transition from conventional to renewables in Germany.

You don't need Breitbart/Inforwars/WUWT to put forward your point of view anymore.

Yeah, like thats gonna happen

I thought wuwt was the low point but then, just when you think the bias and ‘alternate facts’ can’t get any worse, I saw him quoting breitbart articles on another thread.

[andymadmak]

El stovey said:

I thought wuwt was the low point but then, just when you think the bias and ‘alternate facts’ can’t get any worse, I saw him quoting breitbart articles on another thread.

Do you have a view on the Reuters article?

More than once on here it has been suggested that the interconnectors will be our saviour in the future - but what happens when countries want to import more power via their interconnectors than is available?
Or you could just continue to bash Turbobloke and ignore the points at issue..

[dickymint]

andymadmak said:

El stovey said:

I thought wuwt was the low point but then, just when you think the bias and ‘alternate facts’ can’t get any worse, I saw him quoting breitbart articles on another thread.

Do you have a view on the Reuters article?

More than once on here it has been suggested that the interconnectors will be our saviour in the future - but what happens when countries want to import more power via their interconnectors than is available?
Or you could just continue to bash Turbobloke and ignore the points at issue..

not realised yet? He doesn't have views on any of the climate threads. He doesn't give a toss.

[anonymous-user]

andymadmak said:

El stovey said:

I thought wuwt was the low point but then, just when you think the bias and ‘alternate facts’ can’t get any worse, I saw him quoting breitbart articles on another thread.

Do you have a view on the Reuters article?

More than once on here it has been suggested that the interconnectors will be our saviour in the future - but what happens when countries want to import more power via their interconnectors than is available?
Or you could just continue to bash Turbobloke and ignore the points at issue..

Does anyone really read turbobloke’s links any more? Unfortunately most are from advocacy blogs or doctored by him to hide the source or misrepresentations of scientists or just irrelevant lists and click and paste spam. Whenever anyone bothers to check them, they often don’t even agree with his point.

Remember the scientist who he was quoting that came on and said he was misrepresenting his paper? Or the lists of institutions that agreed with him that when checked actually held opposing view points to him.

Is this a good unbiased article for once? That’s a first from the bloke that now quotes breitbart and wuwt and thinks the scientific community are in on some kind of lefty conspiracy.