Boris. £350m for the NHS if we leave EU. Again.

Boris. £350m for the NHS if we leave EU. Again.

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Discussion

TooMany2cvs

29,008 posts

127 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
IroningMan said:
KrissKross said:
We have two options in business, a good deal, and a bad deal.

The remainers have been presented with a good deal but want to turn it into a bad deal, it's rather crazy if you ask me?
I haven't seen any deal at all, much less a good one. Where is the deal that's been presented?
Not just me thinking I must have blinked and missed it...

mx5nut

5,404 posts

83 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
TooMany2cvs said:
IroningMan said:
KrissKross said:
We have two options in business, a good deal, and a bad deal.

The remainers have been presented with a good deal but want to turn it into a bad deal, it's rather crazy if you ask me?
I haven't seen any deal at all, much less a good one. Where is the deal that's been presented?
Not just me thinking I must have blinked and missed it...
Maybe they mean the land of milk and honey they were promised during the referendum campaign?

Of course it's somebody else's fault that it doesn't really exist biggrin

crankedup

25,764 posts

244 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Still waiting for the sky to fall in, after all nobody can be in any serious doubt in thier mind that we are leaving th eu club. All the bull that was spouted by the remain camp during the referendum campaign will be great for ‘stand-up’ comedy for years to come.

Derek Smith

45,732 posts

249 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
rscott said:
Not really. If I tweak your analogy a bit..

I send £1000 a week to someone and they give me £300 back each time. I then stop sending them that money. How much better off am I each week? If you're Boris, then you're £1000 a week better off. Most others would say £700.
Let's avoid analogies and opt for what we were doing and what we are going to do. The maths is quite simple.

We paid considerably less than £350m pw for supposed advantages of membership. Whether these advantages were worth the sum is open to argument.

For a period after we leave there will be a transition period where we will pay more each week than we paid for membership. For this sum we get fewer benefits of membership which dry up as the years go by.

I don't know if we were getting value for money before brexit. What I can say is that if the price goes up and the benefits drop, the vfm is considerably less.

Fair enough, it is short term, a few years, but no one knows what happens after that.


TooMany2cvs

29,008 posts

127 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
For a period after we leave there will be a transition period where we will pay more each week than we paid for membership.
That might be speculated, but it's not known yet, simply because it's not been finalised.

mx5nut

5,404 posts

83 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
crankedup said:
Still waiting for the sky to fall in
We were told it was about to for 40 years - and some tell us that the transitional period is what will finally cause it.

Don't listen to the doom and gloom merchants - the EU isn't as scary as they make it sound smile

crankedup

25,764 posts

244 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
rscott said:
Not really. If I tweak your analogy a bit..

I send £1000 a week to someone and they give me £300 back each time. I then stop sending them that money. How much better off am I each week? If you're Boris, then you're £1000 a week better off. Most others would say £700.
Let's avoid analogies and opt for what we were doing and what we are going to do. The maths is quite simple.

We paid considerably less than £350m pw for supposed advantages of membership. Whether these advantages were worth the sum is open to argument.

For a period after we leave there will be a transition period where we will pay more each week than we paid for membership. For this sum we get fewer benefits of membership which dry up as the years go by.

I don't know if we were getting value for money before brexit. What I can say is that if the price goes up and the benefits drop, the vfm is considerably less.

Fair enough, it is short term, a few years, but no one knows what happens after that.
Nobody knows what the future holds for the U.K. or the EU, At least we will be able to persue
trade deals throughout the rest of World, especially those emerging markets. The question is will the new markets provide us with good strong trading partners over the next half century+
and will the EU onto he it’s downward trajectory harnest to debt of some of its partners.

KrissKross

2,182 posts

102 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
KrissKross said:
mx5nut said:
If the alternative costs you more, that doesn't leave any to spend on something else.
The alternative is that you are better off, not worse of.

It's a fact that we are a net contributor to the EU, no one is denying that, are you?
And once we've left, we'll have to pay for many of the things our membership provided - without the economies of scale.
1/ Like what

2/ why didn't you answer the question?

KrissKross

2,182 posts

102 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
alfie2244 said:
mx5nut said:
And once we've left, we'll have to pay for many of the things our membership provided - without the economies of scale.
Big isn't always beautiful...as Carillion demonstrates .
Perfect example, the EU will go the same way. maybe soon after their 11% of income disappears?

How long can you keep hiding your accounts and incompetencies for, any small business owners would have been in jail long ago!

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
Let's avoid analogies and opt for what we were doing and what we are going to do. The maths is quite simple.

We paid considerably less than £350m pw for supposed advantages of membership. Whether these advantages were worth the sum is open to argument.

For a period after we leave there will be a transition period where we will pay more each week than we paid for membership. For this sum we get fewer benefits of membership which dry up as the years go by.

I don't know if we were getting value for money before brexit. What I can say is that if the price goes up and the benefits drop, the vfm is considerably less.

Fair enough, it is short term, a few years, but no one knows what happens after that.
Aren’t the increases in our contribution already planned and not Brexit related?

KrissKross

2,182 posts

102 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
crankedup said:
The question is will the new markets provide us with good strong trading partners over the next half century+
an
I have an answer,

Yes, if what you produce or offer someone else wants to buy. Location is irrelevant.

No, if what you produce or offer is poor quality or not required.

It really is that simple. I should know.


KrissKross

2,182 posts

102 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
TooMany2cvs said:
IroningMan said:
KrissKross said:
We have two options in business, a good deal, and a bad deal.

The remainers have been presented with a good deal but want to turn it into a bad deal, it's rather crazy if you ask me?
I haven't seen any deal at all, much less a good one. Where is the deal that's been presented?
Not just me thinking I must have blinked and missed it...
Maybe they mean the land of milk and honey they were promised during the referendum campaign?

Of course it's somebody else's fault that it doesn't really exist biggrin
Who do you believe?


KrissKross

2,182 posts

102 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
TooMany2cvs said:
If you're waving the £1,000 figure about, and saying you can spend it on <emotive X>, then damn right it does.

B'sides, of the £700 you've ACTUALLY saved, you may actually need to spend £250 of it on the things that it was already being spent on by the other end... So we're down to £450 actually saved. But shout about a grand if you like...
So... you are saying we are better off but the amount is questionable. That's fair.

But we are better off.


andymadmak

14,597 posts

271 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
the EU isn't as scary as they make it sound smile
I was never scared, although your choice of emotion is interesting. I will simply say that I did not want to follow the EU along it's (oft stated) direction of travel, nor did I want us to get to it's (long held) desired conclusion, no matter how far in the future you may imagine that to be.

I also didn't want the UK to keep being the gooseberry on the sofa, always getting in the way of what our friends on the mainland wanted.
Better to be good friends than warring spouses, in my view.

But scary? No. Perhaps for you? Do you scare easily?

Murph7355

37,761 posts

257 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Aren’t the increases in our contribution already planned and not Brexit related?
It can't be those that Derek was referring to as that would be being disingenuous with numbers and showing no understanding as to how the gross figures are arrived at...

TooMany2cvs

29,008 posts

127 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
KrissKross said:
TooMany2cvs said:
If you're waving the £1,000 figure about, and saying you can spend it on <emotive X>, then damn right it does.

B'sides, of the £700 you've ACTUALLY saved, you may actually need to spend £250 of it on the things that it was already being spent on by the other end... So we're down to £450 actually saved. But shout about a grand if you like...
So... you are saying we are better off but the amount is questionable. That's fair.

But we are better off.
No. Whether our EU membership "costs" is a definite - the UK is a net contributor, as one of the richest countries - but the £350m/wk figure is a lie.

Whether we're "better off" is a MUCH more complex question, because you need to balance that contribution against the benefits of membership. There's a very strong argument that membership benefits the economy by far more than the contribution - but it's almost impossible to quantify.

Have a read of this: (2014, so before the referendum was even a question)
http://www.res.org.uk/details/mediabrief/6052141/E...

I suspect it will be a lot easier to quantify in retrospect. But, by then, it'll be too late.

KrissKross

2,182 posts

102 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
TooMany2cvs said:
No. Whether our EU membership "costs" is a definite - the UK is a net contributor, as one of the richest countries - but the £350m/wk figure is a lie.

Whether we're "better off" is a MUCH more complex question, because you need to balance that contribution against the benefits of membership. There's a very strong argument that membership benefits the economy by far more than the contribution - but it's almost impossible to quantify.

Have a read of this: (2014, so before the referendum was even a question)
http://www.res.org.uk/details/mediabrief/6052141/E...

I suspect it will be a lot easier to quantify in retrospect. But, by then, it'll be too late.
I would imagine those at the top of Carillion were boasting the same for as long as they could.

I also scanned your link, switched off at the bit that said "estimates" and the fact that none of the editors or contributors appear to be from this country, can you link one of them to any real-world business or are they all just academics?

don'tbesilly

13,939 posts

164 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Derek Smith said:
Let's avoid analogies and opt for what we were doing and what we are going to do. The maths is quite simple.

We paid considerably less than £350m pw for supposed advantages of membership. Whether these advantages were worth the sum is open to argument.

For a period after we leave there will be a transition period where we will pay more each week than we paid for membership. For this sum we get fewer benefits of membership which dry up as the years go by.

I don't know if we were getting value for money before brexit. What I can say is that if the price goes up and the benefits drop, the vfm is considerably less.

Fair enough, it is short term, a few years, but no one knows what happens after that.
Aren’t the increases in our contribution already planned and not Brexit related?
Forecasts in millions:

2017 - Gross - £19,200 - Rebate - £5,900 - Net - £13,300
2018 - Gross - £18,600 - Rebate - £3,600 - Net - £15,100
2019 - Gross - £19,200 - Rebate - £3,900 - Net - £15,400
2020 - Gross - £19,600 - Rebate - £4,200 - Net - £15,400
2021 - Gross - £19,800 - Rebate - £4,200 - Net - £15,500

Derek Smith

45,732 posts

249 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Aren’t the increases in our contribution already planned and not Brexit related?
No.


Derek Smith

45,732 posts

249 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
TooMany2cvs said:
No. Whether our EU membership "costs" is a definite - the UK is a net contributor, as one of the richest countries - but the £350m/wk figure is a lie.

Whether we're "better off" is a MUCH more complex question, because you need to balance that contribution against the benefits of membership. There's a very strong argument that membership benefits the economy by far more than the contribution - but it's almost impossible to quantify.

Have a read of this: (2014, so before the referendum was even a question)
http://www.res.org.uk/details/mediabrief/6052141/E...

I suspect it will be a lot easier to quantify in retrospect. But, by then, it'll be too late.
Indeed. That is what makes the Johnson/Gove invented figure nonsensical regardless of its inaccuracy.

The only relevant question is whether membership was worth the cost. Everything else is spin.