Boris. £350m for the NHS if we leave EU. Again.

Boris. £350m for the NHS if we leave EU. Again.

Author
Discussion

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
sidicks said:
Aren’t the increases in our contribution already planned and not Brexit related?
No.
Yes

the EU budget cycle is set until the end of 2020, UK has agreed to continue payments on this basis if we have a transition agreement and final deal.

The budget document is at https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-deta...

Each year the budget increases, what each country pays towards that budget is based on its GNI, VAT and import taxes. The payment is in Euro's.

Murph7355

37,714 posts

256 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
TooMany2cvs said:
...
Whether we're "better off" is a MUCH more complex question, because you need to balance that contribution against the benefits of membership. There's a very strong argument that membership benefits the economy by far more than the contribution - but it's almost impossible to quantify.
...
Indeed. That is what makes the Johnson/Gove invented figure nonsensical regardless of its inaccuracy.

The only relevant question is whether membership was worth the cost. Everything else is spin.
Bearing in mind the bit in bold above, "worth" is also spin. We'll never know. And will (therefore) never know if we are worse off afterwards. The economic arguments are therefore moot.

(I'm also not sure how there can be a "very strong argument" for something without being able to quantify it!).

Edited by Murph7355 on Tuesday 16th January 16:29

TooMany2cvs

29,008 posts

126 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
KrissKross said:
I also scanned your link, switched off at the bit that said "estimates" and the fact that none of the editors or contributors appear to be from this country, can you link one of them to any real-world business or are they all just academics?
Ah, of course. We should discount what they say automatically, because they've got foreign names and don't have proper jobs in "the real world".

Of the three authors, one is an economics professor at Brunel uni and research professor at a science/tech/engineering/maths uni in Zurich, the second is a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London and their director for the European Central Bank Network as well as a professor at the Paris school of economics, while the third is an assistant professor at the Sorbonne.

I'd say they were fairly well placed to have a rough guess, wouldn't you?

mx5nut

5,404 posts

82 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
TooMany2cvs said:
KrissKross said:
I also scanned your link, switched off at the bit that said "estimates" and the fact that none of the editors or contributors appear to be from this country, can you link one of them to any real-world business or are they all just academics?
Ah, of course. We should discount what they say automatically, because they've got foreign names and don't have proper jobs in "the real world".

Of the three authors, one is an economics professor at Brunel uni and research professor at a science/tech/engineering/maths uni in Zurich, the second is a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London and their director for the European Central Bank Network as well as a professor at the Paris school of economics, while the third is an assistant professor at the Sorbonne.

I'd say they were fairly well placed to have a rough guess, wouldn't you?
They sound like experts. Where we're going we don't need experts, they hurt Brexiteers feelings about how things should be.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
They sound like experts. Where we're going we don't need experts, they hurt Brexiteers feelings about how things should be.
sleep

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
jsf said:
Derek Smith said:
sidicks said:
Aren’t the increases in our contribution already planned and not Brexit related?
No.
Yes

the EU budget cycle is set until the end of 2020, UK has agreed to continue payments on this basis if we have a transition agreement and final deal.

The budget document is at https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-deta...

Each year the budget increases, what each country pays towards that budget is based on its GNI, VAT and import taxes. The payment is in Euro's.
So more lies from Derek? OK, thanks for the confirmation!

KrissKross

2,182 posts

101 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
TooMany2cvs said:
KrissKross said:
I also scanned your link, switched off at the bit that said "estimates" and the fact that none of the editors or contributors appear to be from this country, can you link one of them to any real-world business or are they all just academics?
Ah, of course. We should discount what they say automatically, because they've got foreign names and don't have proper jobs in "the real world".

Of the three authors, one is an economics professor at Brunel uni and research professor at a science/tech/engineering/maths uni in Zurich, the second is a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London and their director for the European Central Bank Network as well as a professor at the Paris school of economics, while the third is an assistant professor at the Sorbonne.

I'd say they were fairly well placed to have a rough guess, wouldn't you?
No, I wouldn't and this attitude is replicated through to professorship: https://youtu.be/8utmmWoBSBY

I am currently working on R&D with two professors, a doctor and various academics in an excellent University. They are great in their narrow chosen field of expertise.

However I would not trust one of them to run my business, they are very clever but equally clueless in so many other ways.

In the same way, many politicians leave school to become politicians, and then you call them experts, why because they are old and have a certificate?




Coolbanana

4,416 posts

200 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Ok, so moving on from what the UK contributes to the EU, we all know we pay a fee and can agree on that.

As I see it, we have two types of Leavers when it comes to the Big Red Bus. (No, it isn’t going away Leavers, you need to own it, your Leader insists upon it).

1. Leavers who are fully aware of the fact that Boris is deliberately lying about the Bus figure Claim but see themselves as unaffected by it and like to assume most Leavers are the same. They believe in the Great British Gamble that better Trade Deals can be procured outside of the EU, WTO is fine for EU Trade and that the increased benefits there will mean that much, if not all, of the EU Contribution will be saved for local spending – as the UK Government sees fit to redistribute.
2. Leavers who are ignorant of the facts and easily led, relying upon the likes of Boris, Farage et al to educate them and what they say is Gospel. These Leavers believe any figure Boris claims and that the NHS will benefit.

The 2nd lot in my description above are Boris’ playthings, his Loyal Base and I believe they won the Referendum for him.

The 1st Group seem to have all come from PH biggrin and they have hung their boots upon Liam’s Ace Negotiation Skills for Trade with the ROW.
So…really, the big question for PH is not so much the argument around the Contribution but what the UK gets in return. It is unquantifiable apparently.
Well, I guess that all depend upon whether you feel trade with the EU is important at all and whether the UK can source everything it needs from the ROW and essentially ignore the EU. As, I gather some Leavers – the ‘hard Brexiters’ want. The Great British Gamble.

For those of us who believe EU trade to be vital and more enticing in terms of what Europe produces and we would like, we have to consider what kind of Deal we would get if not a Member.

We know what we currently pay. We also know what Norway pays.

So, looking at both models, Part Membership vs Full Membership, the costs are very similar. The UK does pay a little more from what I am able to find but the value of being a Full Member and being able to design the rules and thus help protect our Industrialists, rather than being told what we have to accept that was agreed without our participation in the process. We also have to bear in mind that the EU will want their Entry Fee to any Trade Deal. Suddenly, those Contribution Savings don’t mean much anymore…

Thus, I believe the Norway model to be inferior to Full Membership and that I’d rather have the UK involved. However, if Brexit has to happen, then EU Lite is better, to me, than the Big British Gamble .

Therefore, we can understand the mind of the Leave Leader, Boris The Numpty. He is against a Norway-type ‘soft Brexit’ precisely because of what I have outlined above, the Big Red Bus monies for anything, let alone the NHS, would not exist at all. If you want a good Deal to Trade with the EU, it is all but gone. In any deal that we are likely to get.

Sure, Team Leave was all bullish during the Referendum about a Trade Deal but now they have been proven incorrect and they know it.

All that is left, is a ‘Hard Brexit’. Ignore a Deal with the EU, go WTO and and go for it with getting fab Trade Deals with the ROW.

Now, I look at the deals the EU has with the ROW from which the UK benefits and can’t help but think…why does the failing UK Negotiation Team think that they can secure better deals with any ROW Countries that the EU cannot? smile

Leroy902

1,540 posts

103 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Boris really is a . fking embarrassing.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
Ok, so moving on from what the UK contributes to the EU, we all know we pay a fee and can agree on that.

As I see it, we have two types of Leavers when it comes to the Big Red Bus. (No, it isn’t going away Leavers, you need to own it, your Leader insists upon it).

1. Leavers who are fully aware of the fact that Boris is deliberately lying about the Bus figure Claim but see themselves as unaffected by it and like to assume most Leavers are the same. They believe in the Great British Gamble that better Trade Deals can be procured outside of the EU, WTO is fine for EU Trade and that the increased benefits there will mean that much, if not all, of the EU Contribution will be saved for local spending – as the UK Government sees fit to redistribute.
2. Leavers who are ignorant of the facts and easily led, relying upon the likes of Boris, Farage et al to educate them and what they say is Gospel. These Leavers believe any figure Boris claims and that the NHS will benefit.

The 2nd lot in my description above are Boris’ playthings, his Loyal Base and I believe they won the Referendum for him.

The 1st Group seem to have all come from PH biggrin and they have hung their boots upon Liam’s Ace Negotiation Skills for Trade with the ROW.
So…really, the big question for PH is not so much the argument around the Contribution but what the UK gets in return. It is unquantifiable apparently.
Well, I guess that all depend upon whether you feel trade with the EU is important at all and whether the UK can source everything it needs from the ROW and essentially ignore the EU. As, I gather some Leavers – the ‘hard Brexiters’ want. The Great British Gamble.

For those of us who believe EU trade to be vital and more enticing in terms of what Europe produces and we would like, we have to consider what kind of Deal we would get if not a Member.

We know what we currently pay. We also know what Norway pays.

So, looking at both models, Part Membership vs Full Membership, the costs are very similar. The UK does pay a little more from what I am able to find but the value of being a Full Member and being able to design the rules and thus help protect our Industrialists, rather than being told what we have to accept that was agreed without our participation in the process. We also have to bear in mind that the EU will want their Entry Fee to any Trade Deal. Suddenly, those Contribution Savings don’t mean much anymore…

Thus, I believe the Norway model to be inferior to Full Membership and that I’d rather have the UK involved. However, if Brexit has to happen, then EU Lite is better, to me, than the Big British Gamble .

Therefore, we can understand the mind of the Leave Leader, Boris The Numpty. He is against a Norway-type ‘soft Brexit’ precisely because of what I have outlined above, the Big Red Bus monies for anything, let alone the NHS, would not exist at all. If you want a good Deal to Trade with the EU, it is all but gone. In any deal that we are likely to get.

Sure, Team Leave was all bullish during the Referendum about a Trade Deal but now they have been proven incorrect and they know it.

All that is left, is a ‘Hard Brexit’. Ignore a Deal with the EU, go WTO and and go for it with getting fab Trade Deals with the ROW.

Now, I look at the deals the EU has with the ROW from which the UK benefits and can’t help but think…why does the failing UK Negotiation Team think that they can secure better deals with any ROW Countries that the EU cannot? smile
Ignoring the rest of the nonsense above, are the current trades deals the EU has designed to meet the specific requirements of the U.K. or to provide a compromise across all the EU countries?

KrissKross

2,182 posts

101 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
Ok, so moving on from what the UK contributes to the EU, we all know we pay a fee and can agree on that.

As I see it, we have two types of Leavers when it comes to the Big Red Bus. (No, it isn’t going away Leavers, you need to own it, your Leader insists upon it).

1. Leavers who are fully aware of the fact that Boris is deliberately lying about the Bus figure Claim but see themselves as unaffected by it and like to assume most Leavers are the same. They believe in the Great British Gamble that better Trade Deals can be procured outside of the EU, WTO is fine for EU Trade and that the increased benefits there will mean that much, if not all, of the EU Contribution will be saved for local spending – as the UK Government sees fit to redistribute.
2. Leavers who are ignorant of the facts and easily led, relying upon the likes of Boris, Farage et al to educate them and what they say is Gospel. These Leavers believe any figure Boris claims and that the NHS will benefit.

The 2nd lot in my description above are Boris’ playthings, his Loyal Base and I believe they won the Referendum for him.

The 1st Group seem to have all come from PH biggrin and they have hung their boots upon Liam’s Ace Negotiation Skills for Trade with the ROW.
So…really, the big question for PH is not so much the argument around the Contribution but what the UK gets in return. It is unquantifiable apparently.
Well, I guess that all depend upon whether you feel trade with the EU is important at all and whether the UK can source everything it needs from the ROW and essentially ignore the EU. As, I gather some Leavers – the ‘hard Brexiters’ want. The Great British Gamble.

For those of us who believe EU trade to be vital and more enticing in terms of what Europe produces and we would like, we have to consider what kind of Deal we would get if not a Member.

We know what we currently pay. We also know what Norway pays.

So, looking at both models, Part Membership vs Full Membership, the costs are very similar. The UK does pay a little more from what I am able to find but the value of being a Full Member and being able to design the rules and thus help protect our Industrialists, rather than being told what we have to accept that was agreed without our participation in the process. We also have to bear in mind that the EU will want their Entry Fee to any Trade Deal. Suddenly, those Contribution Savings don’t mean much anymore…

Thus, I believe the Norway model to be inferior to Full Membership and that I’d rather have the UK involved. However, if Brexit has to happen, then EU Lite is better, to me, than the Big British Gamble .

Therefore, we can understand the mind of the Leave Leader, Boris The Numpty. He is against a Norway-type ‘soft Brexit’ precisely because of what I have outlined above, the Big Red Bus monies for anything, let alone the NHS, would not exist at all. If you want a good Deal to Trade with the EU, it is all but gone. In any deal that we are likely to get.

Sure, Team Leave was all bullish during the Referendum about a Trade Deal but now they have been proven incorrect and they know it.

All that is left, is a ‘Hard Brexit’. Ignore a Deal with the EU, go WTO and and go for it with getting fab Trade Deals with the ROW.

Now, I look at the deals the EU has with the ROW from which the UK benefits and can’t help but think…why does the failing UK Negotiation Team think that they can secure better deals with any ROW Countries that the EU cannot? smile
I might print this off and take this to our next business meeting with my European customers, it will no doubt help me in selling more stuff.

Great pointers, thanks.

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
It's really amusing that even after 18 months, Remainers are still frothing about the red bus.

Leavers have to own it. laugh

Leavers saw it for what it was, a method to get across the message the UK sends a shedload of money to the EU. It was a brilliant marketing tool because even if they didn't agree with the number, they couldn't counter the fact the UK sends a shedload of money to the EU. It's not leavers who are hung up on this particular image.

Keep mentioning it though, because every time you do, i reinforces the fact the UK sends a shedload of money to the EU.

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
jsf said:
It's really amusing that even after 18 months, Remainers are still frothing about the red bus.

Leavers have to own it. laugh

Leavers saw it for what it was, a method to get across the message the UK sends a shedload of money to the EU. It was a brilliant marketing tool because even if they didn't agree with the number, they couldn't counter the fact the UK sends a shedload of money to the EU. It's not leavers who are hung up on this particular image.

Keep mentioning it though, because every time you do, i reinforces the fact the UK sends a shedload of money to the EU.
You should be grateful to Boris today for reinforcing your faith in the big red bus.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Ghibli said:
You should be grateful to Boris today for reinforcing your faith in the big red bus.
What bus?

TooMany2cvs

29,008 posts

126 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Ignoring the rest of the nonsense above, are the current trades deals the EU has designed to meet the specific requirements of the U.K. or to provide a compromise across all the EU countries?
How are the UK's requirements so massively different to the rest of the EU, and how come we don't press those specific requirements harder when it comes to negotiating?

There are several main countries where the EU does not currently have a trade deal.

The US. TTIP was nearly there, then Trumplethinskin pulled up the drawbridge. But everybody hated it and said it was a terrible deal giving a mahoosive back door for the US to simply annex the UK...

India. Negotiations stalled from India's end when Modi came to power, because he's not that bothered in doing a deal. For talks to get anywhere, easier migration for larger numbers of Indians is almost certainly going to have to be agreed.

China. The big showstoppers are China's big internal issues - including IP and protectionism.

Now, can somebody please explain how the UK (65m people, $2.6tn GDP) is going to get around all of those issues SO much easier than the EU (510m people, $18tn GDP)...?

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Ghibli said:
You should be grateful to Boris today for reinforcing your faith in the big red bus.
What faith would that be?

alfie2244

11,292 posts

188 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Ghibli said:
You should be grateful to Boris today for reinforcing your faith in the big red bus.
What bus?
Does it's wheels go round and round?

don'tbesilly

13,933 posts

163 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Coolbanana said:
As I see it, we have two types of Leavers when it comes to the Big Red Bus. (No, it isn’t going away Leavers, you need to own it, your Leader insists upon it).
17,410,742 people voted to leave the EU because of the message on the side of a red bus!

laugh

Second thoughts.......rofl can't stop.........rofl...........still going...............rofl

The Sangria must be quite strong on the Algarve, or the heat from the Lay-Z-Spa is going to your head.



Derek Smith

45,659 posts

248 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Bearing in mind the bit in bold above, "worth" is also spin. We'll never know. And will (therefore) never know if we are worse off afterwards. The economic arguments are therefore moot.

(I'm also not sure how there can be a "very strong argument" for something without being able to quantify it!).

Edited by Murph7355 on Tuesday 16th January 16:29
Almost is an easily understood word.

It's easy enough to work out whether one is higher than the other. There is no need to be able to quantify precisely.


Leroy902

1,540 posts

103 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Coolbanana said:
As I see it, we have two types of Leavers when it comes to the Big Red Bus. (No, it isn’t going away Leavers, you need to own it, your Leader insists upon it).
17,410,742 people voted to leave the EU because of the message on the side of a red bus!

laugh

Second thoughts.......rofl can't stop.........rofl...........still going...............rofl

The Sangria must be quite strong on the Algarve, or the heat from the Lay-Z-Spa is going to your head.
I seriously doubt that. The figure off 17, 000,000 is far more likely.