And...It's Spain.. will it kick off ?
Discussion
I don't know the full ins and outs but I get the impression that the Catalonian government kept pressing for negotiation and a legal referendum but Madrid flatly refused to even speak with them regarding the issue, so they gave up begging and just got on with it. This is the result.
That's my take anyway.
What surprises me is that Madrid haven't simply agreed to 'talks' then wrapped it up in faff and bureaucracy to suffocate the issue under a blanket of politics. It's the EU way...
That's my take anyway.
What surprises me is that Madrid haven't simply agreed to 'talks' then wrapped it up in faff and bureaucracy to suffocate the issue under a blanket of politics. It's the EU way...
Edited by Mothersruin on Sunday 22 October 13:31
Ayahuasca said:
The Spanish government is obliged to uphold the constitution.
You want independence, fine, organise a legal referendum and negotiate........
I think they've tried that. Madrid has completely ignored them. After all, a constitution written by the Army has got to be the pinnacle of democracy.....You want independence, fine, organise a legal referendum and negotiate........
FF
Problem is that the constitution doesn’t help, and hiding behind it is an intellectually weak position. It basically says that no region can do what Catalonia is doing, even if 100% of the voters supported independence. Unless they convince the rest of Spain to vote for it (unlikely), there is no possible self-determination. The Spanish government are interpreting it literally and refusing to have any discussions, thus pushing the more moderate Catalonians into a harder line position. They’re probably planning right now to send tanks into Barcelona, because those 450,000 people are being a bit illegal. Defence of the constitution and all that.
It’s barmy. If they engaged on the issues, they’d probably win, just like the UK with Scotland.
It’s barmy. If they engaged on the issues, they’d probably win, just like the UK with Scotland.
rxe said:
Problem is that the constitution doesn’t help, and hiding behind it is an intellectually weak position. It basically says that no region can do what Catalonia is doing, even if 100% of the voters supported independence. Unless they convince the rest of Spain to vote for it (unlikely), there is no possible self-determination. The Spanish government are interpreting it literally and refusing to have any discussions, thus pushing the more moderate Catalonians into a harder line position. They’re probably planning right now to send tanks into Barcelona, because those 450,000 people are being a bit illegal. Defence of the constitution and all that.
It’s barmy. If they engaged on the issues, they’d probably win, just like the UK with Scotland.
Hiding behind the constitution is intellectually weak? Try using that argument in the USA and see how far you get. It’s barmy. If they engaged on the issues, they’d probably win, just like the UK with Scotland.
People are confusing the right to self-determination with the right to secede. Different things. In any event, where is the evidence that the majority of Catalan residents want independence? Yes their rabble-rousing leader wants it and maybe so does the majority of those who voted in the referendum (although how free and fair this was is up for discussion). But what about the majority of Catalans who chose not to participate in the illegal referendum? Are their views to be ignored?
Ayahuasca said:
Hiding behind the constitution is intellectually weak? Try using that argument in the USA and see how far you get.
People are confusing the right to self-determination with the right to secede. Different things. In any event, where is the evidence that the majority of Catalan residents want independence? Yes their rabble-rousing leader wants it and maybe so does the majority of those who voted in the referendum (although how free and fair this was is up for discussion). But what about the majority of Catalans who chose not to participate in the illegal referendum? Are their views to be ignored?
This is the problem with the way the Catalonia issue has been handled.People are confusing the right to self-determination with the right to secede. Different things. In any event, where is the evidence that the majority of Catalan residents want independence? Yes their rabble-rousing leader wants it and maybe so does the majority of those who voted in the referendum (although how free and fair this was is up for discussion). But what about the majority of Catalans who chose not to participate in the illegal referendum? Are their views to be ignored?
Madrid wont allow a legal referendum, full stop, so there is no opportunity to see what the split is within the region.
There is also zero chance of them getting that opportunity either, because if Catalonia split from Spain, Spain would become a lot poorer. This is the opposite of Scotland, where UK subsidises them.
So what we are left with is a government with no incentive to change the situation, who are hard headed enough to consider cracking heads is acceptable behaviour. It has all the ingredients to see lots of dead people.
The Catalonia leader was on the TV yesterday asking for help from the EU, he may as well be talking to the wall, they are on their own. The only way that will change is if Madrid send in the goon squads and start killing people on a scale that cant be ignored. A few dead people and locked up politicians wont get any response from the EU, it will have to be horrific levels of oppression for them to censure the Madrid government.
Ayahuasca said:
Hiding behind the constitution is intellectually weak? Try using that argument in the USA and see how far you get.
People are confusing the right to self-determination with the right to secede. Different things. In any event, where is the evidence that the majority of Catalan residents want independence? Yes their rabble-rousing leader wants it and maybe so does the majority of those who voted in the referendum (although how free and fair this was is up for discussion). But what about the majority of Catalans who chose not to participate in the illegal referendum? Are their views to be ignored?
I would imagine that many people would look at some aspects of the US Constitution and think it was intellectually weak to suggest that people should be armed to the teeth because somebody said so a few hundred years ago.People are confusing the right to self-determination with the right to secede. Different things. In any event, where is the evidence that the majority of Catalan residents want independence? Yes their rabble-rousing leader wants it and maybe so does the majority of those who voted in the referendum (although how free and fair this was is up for discussion). But what about the majority of Catalans who chose not to participate in the illegal referendum? Are their views to be ignored?
You claim there are a majority of Catalans are against independence - you may be right. So if the Government had allowed the referendum, and merely demanded thorough voter registration etc ... we wouldn’t be having this discussion. The majority would have won, the argument for independence would have been lost, all over.
Instead the government went for the “we’re not listening to you, it’s illegal”, and we all know where that has ended up.
rxe said:
Problem is that the constitution doesn’t help, and hiding behind it is an intellectually weak position. It basically says that no region can do what Catalonia is doing, even if 100% of the voters supported independence. Unless they convince the rest of Spain to vote for it (unlikely), there is no possible self-determination. The Spanish government are interpreting it literally and refusing to have any discussions, thus pushing the more moderate Catalonians into a harder line position. They’re probably planning right now to send tanks into Barcelona, because those 450,000 people are being a bit illegal. Defence of the constitution and all that.
Quite. Paper history and power always trump self-determination for a particular mindset, Spain aren't fans of self-determination. From the 'do as we say' form of governance.Stickyfinger said:
If Spain lets Catalonia have their Indi-Ref and then wins the stay vote, it cannot maintain it's claim on Gibraltar. If it looses to the Leave vote, it also has to drop it's claim. Only suppression of the Catalonian wish for a referendum will allow them to maintain the claim.
Whenever you see Gibraltar, or the Falkland's for that matter, in the news, its always because the Spanish or Argentinian governments are in trouble. They are the default ball to kick to deflect attention.Breadvan72 said:
The Constitution was drafted by elected member of the Cortes (the Parliament) and approved in a referendum (91.8% of voters in favour) . Why do you think it was written by the army?
Maybe because it wasn't the first draft - just the latest! I'm sure those chosen by the state to draft it were main Spanish state friendly - even if there was one Catalan (?) or at least Catalan party member on the team.Edited by Breadvan72 on Sunday 22 October 14:20
Just been watching the Spanish nationalists on the news patting the Guardia Civil cops as they come out of their barracks in their civvies. Odd behaviour. Its just a total clash between Catalonian Nationalists and Spanish Nationalists and zero dialogue/accommodation..
It may not be that similar (as I learn and analyse this potential catastrophe) since there is so little bad blood left by 2017, but can you imagine England sending in paramilitary cops into Wales if the Welsh people held an 'illegal' vote after decades of asking London, in the spirit of democracy (enshrined in the constitution) 'pretty please, can we have a vote' - but always drawing a blank? Can you imagine England sending in the army to shut down Welsh TV stations and telling people to ignore any cops that sympathised with the Welsh cause? Can you imagine them imprisoning their leaders without trial, giving others millions of pounds in fines, rewinding their devolution and generally beating up citizens for disagreement? Well that is all happening/about to happen in Catalonia... Cant be right in Europe in the 21st century? Just wont work either...
Stickyfinger said:
If Spain lets Catalonia have their Indi-Ref and then wins the stay vote, it cannot maintain it's claim on Gibraltar. If it looses to the Leave vote, it also has to drop it's claim. Only suppression of the Catalonian wish for a referendum will allow them to maintain the claim.
Gibraltar is not on their minds. Its the internal regions.If Catalonia leaves, Basque will demand a referendum too, possible others.
jsf said:
Ayahuasca said:
Hiding behind the constitution is intellectually weak? Try using that argument in the USA and see how far you get.
People are confusing the right to self-determination with the right to secede. Different things. In any event, where is the evidence that the majority of Catalan residents want independence? Yes their rabble-rousing leader wants it and maybe so does the majority of those who voted in the referendum (although how free and fair this was is up for discussion). But what about the majority of Catalans who chose not to participate in the illegal referendum? Are their views to be ignored?
This is the problem with the way the Catalonia issue has been handled.People are confusing the right to self-determination with the right to secede. Different things. In any event, where is the evidence that the majority of Catalan residents want independence? Yes their rabble-rousing leader wants it and maybe so does the majority of those who voted in the referendum (although how free and fair this was is up for discussion). But what about the majority of Catalans who chose not to participate in the illegal referendum? Are their views to be ignored?
Madrid wont allow a legal referendum, full stop, so there is no opportunity to see what the split is within the region.
There is also zero chance of them getting that opportunity either, because if Catalonia split from Spain, Spain would become a lot poorer. This is the opposite of Scotland, where UK subsidises them.
So what we are left with is a government with no incentive to change the situation, who are hard headed enough to consider cracking heads is acceptable behaviour. It has all the ingredients to see lots of dead people.
The Catalonia leader was on the TV yesterday asking for help from the EU, he may as well be talking to the wall, they are on their own. The only way that will change is if Madrid send in the goon squads and start killing people on a scale that cant be ignored. A few dead people and locked up politicians wont get any response from the EU, it will have to be horrific levels of oppression for them to censure the Madrid government.
But, leaving that to one side, Madrid can't allow a referendum because the Constitution says no. Even if Madrid wanted to allow one, the Constitutional Court would step in and veto it.
I don't suppose you'll care to read it, but here's a link to the judgement from the Constitutional Court. It makes grim reading in terms of respect shown for the rule of law in the Catalan Parlament.
https://www.tribunalconstitucional.es/NotasDePrens...
One of the consequences of triggering article 155 is that regional elections will have to be held within 6 months. I've said on this thread before that it will be a proxy for a referendum. Not ideal, but as close as the catalans are going to get in the short term. If the pro independence CUP and the JxSi coalition get a lot more seats then they did before, then yes, support for independence will have been demonstrated. I suspect that they won't do as well as they think they might. There are a lot of decent hard working catalans (possibly a majority) who are absolutely appalled by the way the Generalitat have been carrying on.
In the longer term, the government have set up a commission to review the constitution in the light of what has been happening in Catalonia. We'll need to wait and see what they report. That's due to report back to parliament in Madrid in six months or so.
As for your point about economics, the Catalans have pretty much shot themselves in the foot. Firms are moving their legal domiciles out of Catalunya - over 1,200 the last time I looked. A unilateral declaration of independence (if it succeeded, which it won't, because the government will step in to stop it) will result in a huge drop in Catalunya's GDP. Figures of 25 to 30% have been mentioned. Firms will move from Catalunya to other parts of Spain where they see the rule of law prevailing. Inward investment is down, and set to drop further. Spain as a whole will suffer, but Catalunya will suffer more.
Ken Figenus said:
Maybe because it wasn't the first draft - just the latest! I'm sure those chosen by the state to draft it were main Spanish state friendly - even if there was one Catalan (?) or at least Catalan party member on the team.
Just been watching the Spanish nationalists on the news patting the Guardia Civil cops as they come out of their barracks in their civvies. Odd behaviour. Its just a total clash between Catalonian Nationalists and Spanish Nationalists and zero dialogue/accommodation..
It may not be that similar (as I learn and analyse this potential catastrophe) since there is so little bad blood left by 2017, but can you imagine England sending in paramilitary cops into Wales if the Welsh people held an 'illegal' vote after decades of asking London, in the spirit of democracy (enshrined in the constitution) 'pretty please, can we have a vote' - but always drawing a blank? Can you imagine England sending in the army to shut down Welsh TV stations and telling people to ignore any cops that sympathised with the Welsh cause? Can you imagine them imprisoning their leaders without trial, giving others millions of pounds in fines, rewinding their devolution and generally beating up citizens for disagreement? Well that is all happening/about to happen in Catalonia... Cant be right in Europe in the 21st century? Just wont work either...
Dear oh dear. In amongst this diatribe, can you remind me which TV stations have been shut down? Can you tell me who has been imprisoned without trial? Excluding the pair of Catalan nationalists who have been remanded in custody by a judge because there is a legitimate concern about them a) destroying evidence and b) repeating the behaviour that got them arrested in the first place if they were to be set free?Just been watching the Spanish nationalists on the news patting the Guardia Civil cops as they come out of their barracks in their civvies. Odd behaviour. Its just a total clash between Catalonian Nationalists and Spanish Nationalists and zero dialogue/accommodation..
It may not be that similar (as I learn and analyse this potential catastrophe) since there is so little bad blood left by 2017, but can you imagine England sending in paramilitary cops into Wales if the Welsh people held an 'illegal' vote after decades of asking London, in the spirit of democracy (enshrined in the constitution) 'pretty please, can we have a vote' - but always drawing a blank? Can you imagine England sending in the army to shut down Welsh TV stations and telling people to ignore any cops that sympathised with the Welsh cause? Can you imagine them imprisoning their leaders without trial, giving others millions of pounds in fines, rewinding their devolution and generally beating up citizens for disagreement? Well that is all happening/about to happen in Catalonia... Cant be right in Europe in the 21st century? Just wont work either...
Can you just confirm that we don't remand people in custody in the UK, or are they all political prisoners too?
Ayahuasca said:
Hiding behind the constitution is intellectually weak? Try using that argument in the USA and see how far you get.
If ever there was a poster child for the utter insanity that is sticking rigidly to an old constitution, it's surely our gun-toting lunatic cousins over the pond!
mondeoman said:
What’s 1200 firms as a percentage? And what about size vs contribution?
It was all bar one of those quoted in the IBEX 35* last time I looked. You name a big company in Catalunya and they have pretty much all jumped ship. Much to the consternation of Junqueras, who’s doing a good Chemical Ali impersonation.- Catalan based obvs.....
Edited by ou sont les biscuits on Sunday 22 October 22:29
ou sont les biscuits said:
mondeoman said:
What’s 1200 firms as a percentage? And what about size vs contribution?
It was all bar one of those quoted in the IBEX 35* last time I looked. You name a big company in Catalunya and they have pretty much all jumped ship. Much to the consternation of Junqueras, who’s doing a good Chemical Ali impersonation.- Catalan based obvs.....
Edited by ou sont les biscuits on Sunday 22 October 22:29
http://ec.europa.eu/DocsRoom/documents/16344/attac...
99.9% of Spanish companies are small businesses, employing 73.3% of employees, and contributing 62.8% to GDP.
I can't find numbers for Catalonia itself, but would assume it won't be a million miles away from this. This is important; although big businesses shout loudly, they generally don't wear the economic trousers.
One interesting statistic I found was that Catalonia contributes 60% of all patents issued in Spain - that's pretty spectacular whichever way you look at it.
It'll be a tough couple of years for an independent Catalonia, but they'll power through.
Reading some of the responses here I'm glad we don't have a constitution in the UK. Too many people are happy to hide behind a piece of paper to enact awful suffering on others. A constitution allows this...
In a democracy the risk of deselection is the king pin and declaring independence is the ultimate deselection and must be allowed. At the same time the right to amalgamate needs enshrining by the UN.
In a democracy the risk of deselection is the king pin and declaring independence is the ultimate deselection and must be allowed. At the same time the right to amalgamate needs enshrining by the UN.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff