How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

[ORD]

barryrs said:

60% of 50 - 64 year olds voted leave.

50 to 64 = much older! They arent even retired in most cases.

NB.
Im not 40 yet.

You’re seemingly upset that 64 year olds are much older than 25 year old. Take that up with maths.

[wc98]

B'stard Child said:

Checks in - two new pages of dross

Sets reminder to check in again in a few days

yep, unfortunately i was tempted to add a lighthearted post myself. it would only take a few people to stop replying to the remainiacs and it would make an incredibly funny read .

[barryrs]

ORD said:

barryrs said:

60% of 50 - 64 year olds voted leave.

50 to 64 = much older! They arent even retired in most cases.

NB.
Im not 40 yet.

You’re seemingly upset that 64 year olds are much older than 25 year old. Take that up with maths.

No im not; you keep taking the extreme ends of everything.

Voting demographics were broken down into age ranges.

18 - 24
25 - 49
50 - 64
65+

Pointing at the extreme ends and drawing a conclusion is so stupid id expect a Brexit voter to suggest it

[ORD]

barryrs said:

No im not; you keep taking the extreme ends of everything.

Voting demographics were broken down into age ranges.

18 - 24
25 - 49
50 - 64
65+

Pointing at the extreme ends and drawing a conclusion is so stupid id expect a Brexit voter to suggest it

Still no idea what you’re on about. I was talking about averages. The average Leave voter is older (much older) than the average Remain voter.

[IroningMan]

ORD said:

If Leave voters are on average much older (indisputable) and older people on average use the internet much less (indisputable), it follows that Leave voters are on average less likely to use the internet much.

Of course, there might be something peculiar about Leave voters that means older ones use the internet a lot, but I doubt it. Or there might be something peculiar about Remain voters that means younger ones use the internet very little, but I doubt it.

Same point as before, expressed in terms that even the anti-knowledge brigade can hopefully follow without throwing up their ‘prove that obviously true thing’ card and stamping around. See also ‘Hard Brexit will damage the economy’ or ‘Grass is green’.

You're in danger of implying that Brexit is something that the UK may one day grow out of...

[barryrs]

ORD said:

Still no idea what you’re on about. I was talking about averages. The average Leave voter is older (much older) than the average Remain voter.

Sorry, so your saying the average age of a leave voter is 64 and remain 25?

Care to back that up?

[anonymous-user]

ORD said:

Still no idea what you’re on about. I was talking about averages. The average Leave voter is older (much older) than the average Remain voter.

Voting patterns change with maturity and experience of life. The "old" were once "young" and often their democratic choices change from idealistic to practical as they age, which is why the young usually vote for more socialist policies then shift their position towards a more conservative viewpoint as they gain more life experience. This pattern is unlikely to change, so hoping the old will die off to change the EU voting pattern is asking for something that generally doesn't happen.

[mx5nut]

jsf said:

Voting patterns change with maturity and experience of life. The "old" were once "young" and often their democratic choices change from idealistic to practical as they age, which is why the young usually vote for more socialist policies then shift their position towards a more conservative viewpoint as they gain more life experience. This pattern is unlikely to change, so hoping the old will die off to change the EU voting pattern is asking for something that generally doesn't happen.

You may be surprised.

The youngsters of today have grown up with the benefits and opportunities of living in an EU country their entire lives, and thanks to the cost of doing so plummeting in that time are likely to have more experience of the world outside of the UK than our generation. The "make Britain great again" nonsense means little to them.

We'll see the opposite effect where people generally vote Conservative with age. It's getting prohibitively difficult for young people to buy a house, have a feeling of secure employment etc that usually causes them to start to lean towards them. At the last GE, every age group up to 50+ favoured Labour.

[Zod]

wc98 said:

Zod said:

I think we can cope with a bunch of "rioting" 60+ types.

edit: just noticed that the Mash said the same thing more amusingly

i think the 60 plus lot will manage quite well with the hi viz wearing, latte drinking, islington based ,marketing executives charging them on push bikes with their eu flags . if nothing else seeing islington turned into a smouldering hole in the ground by pensioners will be fun .





note the above is meant as a light hearted joke, before the oversensitive start with their think of the children nonsense.

Latte? Flat whites these days.

At least the mobility scooters would have no chance of making it up the hill to Hampstead and Highgate.

[ORD]

barryrs said:

Sorry, so your saying the average age of a leave voter is 64 and remain 25?

Care to back that up?

This is a fun game. Do I know make up things that you didnt say and ask, with childish passive aggression, that you back it up?

[barryrs]

ORD said:

This is a fun game. Do I know make up things that you didnt say and ask, with childish passive aggression, that you back it up?

You said

ORD said:

If Leave voters are on average much older (indisputable) .

I think that is disputable; especially considering the median age of every voter is 40.

[ORD]

jsf said:

ORD said:

Still no idea what you’re on about. I was talking about averages. The average Leave voter is older (much older) than the average Remain voter.

Voting patterns change with maturity and experience of life. The "old" were once "young" and often their democratic choices change from idealistic to practical as they age, which is why the young usually vote for more socialist policies then shift their position towards a more conservative viewpoint as they gain more life experience. This pattern is unlikely to change, so hoping the old will die off to change the EU voting pattern is asking for something that generally doesn't happen.

True in general but I think the effect of age on voting patterns is quite complex and depends on the issue in question. Left vs right wing (economically and culturally) is relatively simple in that young people tend to benefit from redistribution of wealth and cultural freedom, and that benefit decreases and disappears as they get older. Other issues are more difficult to map against age.

The people that will be 50 in 20 years time will have lived very different lives from those who are 50 now, and they are bound to have a very different outlook on many issues. I would expect, for example, that very many 20-somethings will never be terribly concerned about immigration in the way that their parents and grandparents often are, no matter how old they get. There has been a big cultural shift, at least amongst the well-educated classes.

[andymadmak]

mx5nut said:

You may be surprised.

The youngsters of today have grown up with the benefits and opportunities of living in an EU country their entire lives, and thanks to the cost of doing so plummeting in that time are likely to have more experience of the world outside of the UK than our generation. The "make Britain great again" nonsense means little to them.

If what you say represents the totality of reality, why did a very significant % of 25 - 49yo vote for Brexit (approx 47%)? Even in the 18 - 24 age bracket almost 40% of men voted exit (women much lower at only 20%)
In fact, if you were to look at the figures dispassionately, the only group to show any real enthusiasm for Remain were those 18 - 24yo women!

[confused_buyer]

mx5nut said:

You may be surprised.

The youngsters of today have grown up with the benefits and opportunities of living in an EU country their entire lives, and thanks to the cost of doing so plummeting in that time are likely to have more experience of the world outside of the UK than our generation. The "make Britain great again" nonsense means little to them.
.

You can apply that both ways. The older generation which apparently voted Leave more than Remain were the same ones who voted overwhelmingly to stay members in 1975 against an elder generation who didn't trust the Germans "because of the war". They've had 30-40 years of EEC/EU membership and most planes I get on which are non-business oriented seem to be full of retired people taking their 5th foreign holiday that year.

So, why did the young of the 1970s who voted for the EEC in the first place change their minds over the next 40 years?

I don't fully know but what is clear is that people do change their minds and views as they get older.

[confused_buyer]

ORD said:

. I would expect, for example, that very many 20-somethings will never be terribly concerned about immigration in the way that their parents and grandparents often are, no matter how old they get. There has been a big cultural shift, at least amongst the well-educated classes.

Not convinced about that. I've come across many 20-somethings moaning about immigration - often linked to housing availability and cost. On the other hand I've come across many Retirees who are well off, own a large house and are just happy to have a cheap Plumber to hand.

[wc98]

Zod said:

Latte? Flat whites these days.

At least the mobility scooters would have no chance of making it up the hill to Hampstead and Highgate.

oh st, i like a flat white myself . picturing the mobility scooter charge brought a smile to my face

[Zigster]

confused_buyer said:

You can apply that both ways. The older generation which apparently voted Leave more than Remain were the same ones who voted overwhelmingly to stay members in 1975 against an elder generation who didn't trust the Germans "because of the war". They've had 30-40 years of EEC/EU membership and most planes I get on which are non-business oriented seem to be full of retired people taking their 5th foreign holiday that year.

So, why did the young of the 1970s who voted for the EEC in the first place change their minds over the next 40 years?

I don't fully know but what is clear is that people do change their minds and views as they get older.

I'm not sure you can say that about voting patterns at the referendums.

Someone who was old enough to vote in the 1975 referendum must have been at least 60 at the 2016 referendum. Anyone aged much over 50 at the last referendum is likely to be dead now. So probably more than half of the 1975 voters are now dead.

Do you have any data that says the remainers at the last referendum became leavers at the 2016 referendum? Or was it that it was the 1975 remainers are now dead and the 2016 leavers were also leavers in 1975?

I don't know - would be interesting to see data on that if it exists.

Having said that, I suspect you might well be right. Young people do tend to be idealistic, but I would say they tend to become more selfish (rather than pragmatic) as they get older. They don't like change, they don't like trying new things, they want everything to be just like it was when they were young. That's the real driver behind people becoming more conservative as they age, rather than pragmatism.

[ORD]

The cynic in me says young people are no less selfish than old. They just have different interests. They are relaxed about taxation because they pay so little tax, for example.

[frankenstein12]

gooner1 said:

Murph7355 said:

Ridgemont said:

Tony Blair was on the Today programme on R4 last week clearly outlining a path to reversing Brexit via Labour reverse ferreting, and adopting a remain stance, winning a GE then using parliament to overturn both the Brexit bill and request article 50 is allowed to be withdrawn. John Humphries pointed out that civil unrest would be the likely outcome. I don’t think he’s wrong.

All he needs to do is get the current Labour leader replaced and win a GE. All before 2019 or maybe 2021 at the outside... Good to see Blair with his feet on the ground as ever.

I'd like to see him with his feet off the ground, john McDonnell stylee.

Going by present voting and public feeling around TM bear in mind the pasting she took at last election if there is an election held in 2019 or 2021 regardless of who is in charge JC or not they will win and I personally suspect if JC is in charge they would hold a much better chance of winning as young voters are really drawn to him.

[confused_buyer]

frankenstein12 said:

Going by present voting and public feeling around TM bear in mind the pasting she took at last election if there is an election held in 2019 or 2021 regardless of who is in charge JC or not they will win and I personally suspect if JC is in charge they would hold a much better chance of winning as young voters are really drawn to him.

May didn't really take a " pasting". She just did nowhere near as well as expected. If anyone won, she did.

With the polls deadlocked were there an election tomorrow anyone could win but with the current seat arithmetic you'd have to make the Tories favourites

Who knows where we'll be in 2022.