How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)
Discussion
Sway said:
And that's fair enough as an opinion. ORD made an assertion that was false however - that any drop in tariffs hits the exchequer, when we can actually drop them by 75% without a single impact to it.
Could he not have been referring to expected income if tariffs remain as now?PurpleMoonlight said:
You really think the Government cares about consumers? We are all just tax fodder to them.
It's an opportunity for the Government to gather revenue without an additional cost to the public, and it may assist the UK:EU trade agreement. Also, don't forget that May promised to match the EU as a last resort to resolve the NI issue.
But they get more revenue if they stimulate the economy, and they do that by reducing tariffs. Even the EU has reduced tariffs on occasion, why do you think that is?It's an opportunity for the Government to gather revenue without an additional cost to the public, and it may assist the UK:EU trade agreement. Also, don't forget that May promised to match the EU as a last resort to resolve the NI issue.
Dr Jekyll said:
But they get more revenue if they stimulate the economy, and they do that by reducing tariffs. Even the EU has reduced tariffs on occasion, why do you think that is?
I don't see why making something cheaper necessarily stimulates the economy. The consumer would need to be in a position to purchase more instead of simply changing supplier.
As I have often stated, I am not a fan of a race to the bottom, in any aspect of life.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Dr Jekyll said:
But they get more revenue if they stimulate the economy, and they do that by reducing tariffs. Even the EU has reduced tariffs on occasion, why do you think that is?
I don't see why making something cheaper necessarily stimulates the economy. The consumer would need to be in a position to purchase more instead of simply changing supplier.
As I have often stated, I am not a fan of a race to the bottom, in any aspect of life.
Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
amusingduck said:
If lowering tariffs means everyone is spending slightly less on imported food, now everybody has slightly more disposable income. More disposable income = more consumer spending = more demand/jobs/revenue = higher productivity/growth?
Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
It is was so simple every country in the world would abolish tariffs surely?Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
amusingduck said:
If lowering tariffs means everyone is spending slightly less on imported food, now everybody has slightly more disposable income. More disposable income = more consumer spending = more demand/jobs/revenue = higher productivity/growth?
Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
In reality we the opposite of what you are suggesting with the fall in the pound and food prices rising. Apparently this is a good thing for this country according to some.Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
Maybe we will end up back where we started.
Ghibli said:
amusingduck said:
If lowering tariffs means everyone is spending slightly less on imported food, now everybody has slightly more disposable income. More disposable income = more consumer spending = more demand/jobs/revenue = higher productivity/growth?
Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
In reality we the opposite of what you are suggesting with the fall in the pound and food prices rising. Apparently this is a good thing for this country according to some.Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
Maybe we will end up back where we started.
The effect hasn't exactly been cataclysmic - consumer spending is up, even excluding food. Wages are rising, along with employment. Inward investment soared as there was more bang for buck.
The pound is already gaining much of the loss. We're starting to talk about the actual important stuff - like what kind of trading economy do we want to be, protectionist (even when there's no one to protect, like British citrus producers or cobblers) like the EU/US, or consumer and commercially driven like some of the most comparable nations such as Singapore and South Korea.
The debate is moving on, and I'm confident that over the next year or so, the details of the relatively irrelevant negotiations about our exit will make way for an actual vision of who we want to be in the future.
Sway said:
We've had a pretty short period where we had the worst of both worlds - a devalued pound meaning inflation, with no control over some of the levers such as tariffs to mitigate against it. Particularly for items that we get very little of from within the EU.
The effect hasn't exactly been cataclysmic - consumer spending is up, even excluding food. Wages are rising, along with employment. Inward investment soared as there was more bang for buck.
The pound is already gaining much of the loss. We're starting to talk about the actual important stuff - like what kind of trading economy do we want to be, protectionist (even when there's no one to protect, like British citrus producers or cobblers) like the EU/US, or consumer and commercially driven like some of the most comparable nations such as Singapore and South Korea.
The debate is moving on, and I'm confident that over the next year or so, the details of the relatively irrelevant negotiations about our exit will make way for an actual vision of who we want to be in the future.
Pretty much all of that is wrong. Unsurprisingly. The effect hasn't exactly been cataclysmic - consumer spending is up, even excluding food. Wages are rising, along with employment. Inward investment soared as there was more bang for buck.
The pound is already gaining much of the loss. We're starting to talk about the actual important stuff - like what kind of trading economy do we want to be, protectionist (even when there's no one to protect, like British citrus producers or cobblers) like the EU/US, or consumer and commercially driven like some of the most comparable nations such as Singapore and South Korea.
The debate is moving on, and I'm confident that over the next year or so, the details of the relatively irrelevant negotiations about our exit will make way for an actual vision of who we want to be in the future.
For starters;
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/10/05/brexit-ha...
And the comparison with Singapore and South Korea? Seriously?
jjlynn27 said:
Sway said:
We've had a pretty short period where we had the worst of both worlds - a devalued pound meaning inflation, with no control over some of the levers such as tariffs to mitigate against it. Particularly for items that we get very little of from within the EU.
The effect hasn't exactly been cataclysmic - consumer spending is up, even excluding food. Wages are rising, along with employment. Inward investment soared as there was more bang for buck.
The pound is already gaining much of the loss. We're starting to talk about the actual important stuff - like what kind of trading economy do we want to be, protectionist (even when there's no one to protect, like British citrus producers or cobblers) like the EU/US, or consumer and commercially driven like some of the most comparable nations such as Singapore and South Korea.
The debate is moving on, and I'm confident that over the next year or so, the details of the relatively irrelevant negotiations about our exit will make way for an actual vision of who we want to be in the future.
Pretty much all of that is wrong. Unsurprisingly. The effect hasn't exactly been cataclysmic - consumer spending is up, even excluding food. Wages are rising, along with employment. Inward investment soared as there was more bang for buck.
The pound is already gaining much of the loss. We're starting to talk about the actual important stuff - like what kind of trading economy do we want to be, protectionist (even when there's no one to protect, like British citrus producers or cobblers) like the EU/US, or consumer and commercially driven like some of the most comparable nations such as Singapore and South Korea.
The debate is moving on, and I'm confident that over the next year or so, the details of the relatively irrelevant negotiations about our exit will make way for an actual vision of who we want to be in the future.
For starters;
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/10/05/brexit-ha...
And the comparison with Singapore and South Korea? Seriously?
Which month in the last two years have wages fallen? None.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-g...
"Real terms" is the net of wage growth and inflation. Inflation has increased faster than wage growth, yes, but as everyone agrees the cause of that inflation was the devaluation of the pound - and much of that has already been reversed - it's hardly a leap that inflation will fall to a lower rate than the wage growth we're seeing.
FDI has increased. Consumer spending has increased. Employment is rising. All verifiable fact.
What exactly is the issue with comparisons to Singapore or SK? Advanced economies, small nations, high value manufacturing and services. Very low import tariffs...
PurpleMoonlight said:
amusingduck said:
If lowering tariffs means everyone is spending slightly less on imported food, now everybody has slightly more disposable income. More disposable income = more consumer spending = more demand/jobs/revenue = higher productivity/growth?
Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
It is was so simple every country in the world would abolish tariffs surely?Makes sense to me, is that not the case?
Nevertheless the general movement is towards lower tariffs, through GATT and now WTO. This is because lower tariffs ultimately benefit everyone.
Remember the original point of the EU was free trade, at least among it's members, that was before it became a protectionist racket. It's very revealing how it's the Remainers who are against free trade and the supposedly xenophobic Brexiters who support it.
ORD said:
Sway said:
And that's fair enough as an opinion. ORD made an assertion that was false however - that any drop in tariffs hits the exchequer, when we can actually drop them by 75% without a single impact to it.
No. I didnt. You are making things up.ORD said:
Food tariffs are not going to be removed. Nobody who is remotely serious and knows a damn thing believes that they will be.
Even if they were, the government would have to find the missing revenue from somewhere. Clue: that means our pockets.
Even if they were, the government would have to find the missing revenue from somewhere. Clue: that means our pockets.
Sway said:
When you say 'pretty much all that is wrong' - which bits? You've only mentioned one, which isn't actually responding to my point.
Which month in the last two years have wages fallen? None.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-g...
"Real terms" is the net of wage growth and inflation. Inflation has increased faster than wage growth, yes, but as everyone agrees the cause of that inflation was the devaluation of the pound - and much of that has already been reversed - it's hardly a leap that inflation will fall to a lower rate than the wage growth we're seeing.
Nominal growth is meaningless. Devaluation of the pound is one of the reasons for the inflation, not the only one. Real wages have fallen, as a consequence of brexit. It's as simple as that. Direct consequence. Which month in the last two years have wages fallen? None.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-g...
"Real terms" is the net of wage growth and inflation. Inflation has increased faster than wage growth, yes, but as everyone agrees the cause of that inflation was the devaluation of the pound - and much of that has already been reversed - it's hardly a leap that inflation will fall to a lower rate than the wage growth we're seeing.
Which brings us neatly to consumer spending. If real wages have fallen, and they have, where do you think that this increased spending comes from?
When you answer that one, you think that that increased spending is a good news?
sway said:
FDI has increased. Consumer spending has increased. Employment is rising. All verifiable fact.
Read up on brexit impact on FDI. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03.pdf
sway said:
What exactly is the issue with comparisons to Singapore or SK? Advanced economies, small nations, high value manufacturing and services. Very low import tariffs...
Comparing a nation with 5.5 mil to nation with 65mil? Is there a difference between MAS and BoE's monetary policy? The same South Korea that wants to join TPP? That one?Dr Jekyll said:
It's very revealing how it's the Remainers who are against free trade and the supposedly xenophobic Brexiters who support it.
The only thing that's revealing is that you either don't understand what you are talking about or that you are being deliberately misleading. Those two don't have to be exclusive. Being against unilaterally dropping tariffs is not being against free trade. Dr Jekyll said:
It isn't so simple because those who reckon they will lose out from an import tariff reduction however temporarily, such as Spanish citrus producers, make much more noise than the far larger number who will benefit from cheaper oranges or from customers having more money left after buying oranges.
Nevertheless the general movement is towards lower tariffs, through GATT and now WTO. This is because lower tariffs ultimately benefit everyone.
Remember the original point of the EU was free trade, at least among it's members, that was before it became a protectionist racket. It's very revealing how it's the Remainers who are against free trade and the supposedly xenophobic Brexiters who support it.
The solution to more free trade is to leave the largest free trade block in the world?Nevertheless the general movement is towards lower tariffs, through GATT and now WTO. This is because lower tariffs ultimately benefit everyone.
Remember the original point of the EU was free trade, at least among it's members, that was before it became a protectionist racket. It's very revealing how it's the Remainers who are against free trade and the supposedly xenophobic Brexiters who support it.
Time will tell I guess.
jjlynn27 said:
Sway said:
When you say 'pretty much all that is wrong' - which bits? You've only mentioned one, which isn't actually responding to my point.
Which month in the last two years have wages fallen? None.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-g...
"Real terms" is the net of wage growth and inflation. Inflation has increased faster than wage growth, yes, but as everyone agrees the cause of that inflation was the devaluation of the pound - and much of that has already been reversed - it's hardly a leap that inflation will fall to a lower rate than the wage growth we're seeing.
Nominal growth is meaningless. Devaluation of the pound is one of the reasons for the inflation, not the only one. Real wages have fallen, as a consequence of brexit. It's as simple as that. Direct consequence. Which month in the last two years have wages fallen? None.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-g...
"Real terms" is the net of wage growth and inflation. Inflation has increased faster than wage growth, yes, but as everyone agrees the cause of that inflation was the devaluation of the pound - and much of that has already been reversed - it's hardly a leap that inflation will fall to a lower rate than the wage growth we're seeing.
Which brings us neatly to consumer spending. If real wages have fallen, and they have, where do you think that this increased spending comes from?
When you answer that one, you think that that increased spending is a good news?
sway said:
FDI has increased. Consumer spending has increased. Employment is rising. All verifiable fact.
Read up on brexit impact on FDI. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03.pdf
sway said:
What exactly is the issue with comparisons to Singapore or SK? Advanced economies, small nations, high value manufacturing and services. Very low import tariffs...
Comparing a nation with 5.5 mil to nation with 65mil? Is there a difference between MAS and BoE's monetary policy? The same South Korea that wants to join TPP? That one?[url]
|https://thumbsnap.com/Fu5BQ3I3[/url]Please point to the period where the change is negative.
Has FDI risen since the referendum? Yes - makes a prediction that you linked to a tad irrelevant doesn't it? Yes.
Are South Korea and Singapore growing faster than the EU and US? Yes. Are they known for being very open to business and free trade? Yes. Is TPP a Free Trade deal? Yes. I thought we wanted free trade?
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