How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

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Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Friday 26th January 2018
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jjlynn27 said:
The only thing that's revealing is that you either don't understand what you are talking about or that you are being deliberately misleading. Those two don't have to be exclusive. Being against unilaterally dropping tariffs is not being against free trade.
But those who are against unilaterally dropping tariffs are against it because they see no advantage in cheaper imports. If they were against it because they argued tariffs were a good bargaining counter to get others tariffs reduced that would be compatible with belief in free trade. But of course to do that we need to leave the EU.

PurpleMoonlight said:
The solution to more free trade is to leave the largest free trade block in the world?

Time will tell I guess.
It isn't a free trade bloc, it's a customer union.

ORD

18,120 posts

128 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
Brexiteers are so strongly in favour of trade that they want to create barriers to trade.

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Friday 26th January 2018
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ORD said:
Brexiteers are so strongly in favour of trade that they want to create barriers to trade.
What barriers are we trying to create?

ORD

18,120 posts

128 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
What barriers are we trying to create?
Customs barriers between UK and EU. Regulatory barriers between UK and EU.
That’s what the Brexit mob are currently screaming for - leaving the Single Market and cusoms Union.

Brexit is fundamentally a programme for reducing trade in return for immigration controls. Pretending it is a free trade movement is just that - a pretence.

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
ORD said:
Customs barriers between UK and EU. Regulatory barriers between UK and EU.
That’s what the Brexit mob are currently screaming for - leaving the Single Market and cusoms Union.

Brexit is fundamentally a programme for reducing trade in return for immigration controls. Pretending it is a free trade movement is just that - a pretence.
The EU may choose to put up barriers, we don't have to, and that certainly isn't the point of Brexit.

If you want to know what the 'Brexit mob' are really screaming for, Watch 'Brexit the Movie'. Or even better read Roger Bootle's 'The trouble with Europe'.

Nothing about immigration, plenty about increasing trade.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Friday 26th January 2018
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Dr Jekyll said:
The EU may choose to put up barriers, we don't have to, and that certainly isn't the point of Brexit.

If you want to know what the 'Brexit mob' are really screaming for, Watch 'Brexit the Movie'. Or even better read Roger Bootle's 'The trouble with Europe'.

Nothing about immigration, plenty about increasing trade.
No cake then?

Do you think our trade with the EU will reduce or increase once we leave the EU?

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

110 months

Friday 26th January 2018
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Sway said:
Have wages risen? Yes. Pay packets are larger than they were in 2016:
[url]
|https://thumbsnap.com/Fu5BQ3I3[/url]

Please point to the period where the change is negative.
Irrelevant. Nobody normal cares about the nominal rise. Real wages have fallen. It's not hard.


Sway said:
Has FDI risen since the referendum? Yes - makes a prediction that you linked to a tad irrelevant doesn't it? Yes.
Read the linked article again. Slowly.

FDI 2016 (first 2 quarters) - £82Bn
FDI 2017 (first 2 quarters) - £20Bn


Sway said:
Are South Korea and Singapore growing faster than the EU and US? Yes. Are they known for being very open to business and free trade? Yes. Is TPP a Free Trade deal? Yes. I thought we wanted free trade?
You still didn't answer the questions on Singapore and SK. Did you understand them?

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
No cake then?

Do you think our trade with the EU will reduce or increase once we leave the EU?
Don't know. If the EU put up barriers it might decrease slightly, or at least increase more slowly. But given that most of our trade is with ROW and that proportion is increasing, that's a small price to pay for increasing ROW trade. And of course if the EU really are committed to free trade they won't be troublesome.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

110 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
jjlynn27 said:
The only thing that's revealing is that you either don't understand what you are talking about or that you are being deliberately misleading. Those two don't have to be exclusive. Being against unilaterally dropping tariffs is not being against free trade.
But those who are against unilaterally dropping tariffs are against it because they see no advantage in cheaper imports. If they were against it because they argued tariffs were a good bargaining counter to get others tariffs reduced that would be compatible with belief in free trade. But of course to do that we need to leave the EU.
WTH? Please read about effects of unilaterally dropping tariffs. Then try to understand why it's not a panacea that Minford & Co. think it is. I'm still waiting to hear of any trade deals or any ideas for trade deals that will be more beneficial to the UK than what we currently have. Read up on how trade delegation to India went, and there was a reason for TM to chose India as the first port of call.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
Don't know. If the EU put up barriers it might decrease slightly, or at least increase more slowly. But given that most of our trade is with ROW and that proportion is increasing, that's a small price to pay for increasing ROW trade. And of course if the EU really are committed to free trade they won't be troublesome.
I thought we put up the barriers by voting to leave. People understood the consequences didn't they?

It's a gamble with the ROW. You are hoping they will wish to purchase more or our goods if trading terms are different and/or we can purchase from them cheaper. For some countries it will be instantly worse after we leave of course.

Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Friday 26th January 14:22

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
WTH? Please read about effects of unilaterally dropping tariffs. Then try to understand why it's not a panacea that Minford & Co. think it is. I'm still waiting to hear of any trade deals or any ideas for trade deals that will be more beneficial to the UK than what we currently have. Read up on how trade delegation to India went, and there was a reason for TM to chose India as the first port of call.
I have read up on it thanks. Nobody is saying it's a panacea, just that the effects whenever it has been tried have been overwhelmingly positive.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

110 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
Dr Jekyll said:
jjlynn27 said:
WTH? Please read about effects of unilaterally dropping tariffs. Then try to understand why it's not a panacea that Minford & Co. think it is. I'm still waiting to hear of any trade deals or any ideas for trade deals that will be more beneficial to the UK than what we currently have. Read up on how trade delegation to India went, and there was a reason for TM to chose India as the first port of call.
I have read up on it thanks. Nobody is saying it's a panacea, just that the effects whenever it has been tried have been overwhelmingly positive.
And that's why they are so widely used around the world. Because everyone wants "overwhelmingly positive" effects.Just thinking of it, if everyone was just as bright enough to see those positive effects, everyone would just drop the tariffs. Nobody would waste time with those annoying decade-long trade talks, I mean, who needs those, when OAP brigade on NPE has simple answers.

ORD

18,120 posts

128 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
No need for the rudeness, but I agree with the basic point.

A lot of Brexit thinking displays massive ignorance of (or disregard for) how the world actually works. All high theory and speculative hopes; that and arguments as to what other countries ‘should’ do, rather than what they will do.

Cummings has basically conceded that his own little Brexit success dream relies on very unlikely conditions obtaining.

Free trade with the ROW? Pipe dream.

Funkycoldribena

7,379 posts

155 months

Friday 26th January 2018
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jjlynn27 said:
And that's why they are so widely used around the world. Because everyone wants "overwhelmingly positive" effects.Just thinking of it, if everyone was just as bright enough to see those positive effects, everyone would just drop the tariffs. Nobody would waste time with those annoying decade-long trade talks, I mean, who needs those, when OAP brigade on NPE has simple answers.
Some of us may be old,but at least we dont clean windmills for a living.

anonymous-user

55 months

Friday 26th January 2018
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Ghibli said:
Can anyone point me in the direction of information about when the pound reversed against the euro?

When will our EU imports be getting cheaper or will we be just having less of them?
I'm surprised nobody has jumped onto this one yet. I thought random blokes on the internet had all the answers.

Robertj21a

16,479 posts

106 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
ORD said:
No need for the rudeness, but I agree with the basic point.

A lot of Brexit thinking displays massive ignorance of (or disregard for) how the world actually works. All high theory and speculative hopes; that and arguments as to what other countries ‘should’ do, rather than what they will do.

Cummings has basically conceded that his own little Brexit success dream relies on very unlikely conditions obtaining.

Free trade with the ROW? Pipe dream.
Thanks for that, classic stuff from the one person on here who always manages to illustrate massive ignorance on a personal level.

anonymous-user

55 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
ORD said:
Free trade with the ROW? Pipe dream.
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/20y_e/wto_20_brochure_e.pdf

There is no question the trajectory world wide is to ever lower tariff rates.

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

87 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
Thanks for that, classic stuff from the one person on here who always manages to illustrate massive ignorance on a personal level.
Well, that was a golden opportunity to frame an unassailable argument for leave, proving Ord wrong, but it just slipped through your fingers, somehow,

wc98

10,424 posts

141 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
And that's why they are so widely used around the world. Because everyone wants "overwhelmingly positive" effects.Just thinking of it, if everyone was just as bright enough to see those positive effects, everyone would just drop the tariffs. Nobody would waste time with those annoying decade-long trade talks, I mean, who needs those, when OAP brigade on NPE has simple answers.
tariffs around the world are the result of protectionism, greed and selfishness on an individual and group level. the world would generally be a better place without them. i have read up a bit and can't seem to find anything positive about them vs completely tariff free trade. note i am talking purely the addition of import/export taxes on goods.

The Dangerous Elk

4,642 posts

78 months

Friday 26th January 2018
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
I mean, who needs those, when OAP brigade on NPE has simple answers.
Classic, and you expect people to take you with any level of seriousness ?

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