How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)

[frankenstein12]

Murph7355 said:

Sway said:

Rapidly implemented full fiscal Union and centralised monetary policy. Presented as the 'least worst' option once the SHTF.

That's the plan - those wishing it have always been clear on that. Also, that crises are the best way of achieving it, small steps at a time.

Whether it'll work remains to be seen, personally I think they underestimate the European people. Not sure many truly buy into the 'one nation Europe' goal many in Brussels (and national parliaments) adore.

The latter view I share... I suspect if they force that route, the chaos will simply shift to Germany.

Interestingly the Euro issue is what pushed me to vote leave. From my view the Euro has failed it is just that its not been implemented and realised by everyone yet.

As such the sooner the UK is out of the EU and we have set up trade deals outside the EU and growing our markets in that arena the better to buffer us when the Euro does either fail completely or has to be hugely restructured which in turn will cause major economic issues for all countries but worst affected will be any countries "trapped" within the Eurozones rules or markets.

[Murph7355]

Mrr T said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/23/w...

it’s good to know the government has finally agreed a policy. It seems we are going to have divergence but not a lot of divergence, or maybe more divergence, or even some divergence, or divergence plus, or maybe divergence extra.

All this based on mutual acceptance of standards which no one has ever agreed except with in a SM, and the EU has already rejected.

Finally progress, well maybe progress plus, or negative progress, or maybe progress on cake.

Are you of the opinion that it's only possible to have one "standard"?

[Murph7355]

PurpleMoonlight said:

...
Didn't May rather state that as a default to solve the NI issue?

No.

[edh]

turbobloke said:

How do we think EU negotiations will go...according to the opposition's speechless shadow foreign secretary, the answer is in a more focused manner than if Labour were mismanaging the talks.

Link said:

The shadow foreign secretary claimed the Government did not have a clear position on Brexit. She also revealed the Labour Party would work for a new form of customs union after leaving the bloc.

LBC caller Jake in Leeds pointed out that he, like others, does not understand Labour’s position on Brexit. He said: “You mentioned in response to the previous caller you have a policy on this and the Tories don’t.

“Now I, like a lot of the other Labour supporters who would like you to be in Government, simply don’t understand your position.

“The Tories have said they are going to be out of the single market, out of the customs union and your front bench has at least three different positions. So I don’t quite understand how they don’t have a position and you do.”

Ms Thornberry paused and said: “I don’t know what to say.”

She did manage to say something. More at the link including the studio vid.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/922730/Brexit-ne...

Selective quoting. In the clip she says something like

"I don't know what I can say, I mean I've already explained what our position is.." i.e. I've already told you.

Neither side has clarity as far as I can see - they both set out some desired outcomes but with no detail about how they will be achieved. "frictionless trade" "deep and special partnership" "exact same benefits" etc..

[Sway]

edh said:

Selective quoting. In the clip she says something like

"I don't know what I can say, I mean I've already explained what our position is.." i.e. I've already told you.

Neither side has clarity as far as I can see - they both set out some desired outcomes but with no detail about how they will be achieved. "frictionless trade" "deep and special partnership" "exact same benefits" etc..

Listen to the full interview. She says (to paraphrase) 'can't stay in the Customs Union, but will negotiate a customs union that is the same as the customs union, but technically different'. She's then asked 'does that mean we couldn't negotiate our own trade deals?' to which ET replies 'we'd need to negotiate with the EU so that when they negotiate trade deals, we are part of the negotiation'.

Feel free to listen to the 45 minute video on YouTube, and finding clarity on the Labour position - especially when front benchers are named specifically who have a stated they couldn't support what ET attempts to put forward, despite ET saying they are all in agreement.

Oh, and the negotiating team have put forward what they want - a customs border utilising technology to create as frictionless as possible movement of goods (a la Norway/Sweden, but enhanced, which isn't too challenging when we compare the relative challenges). A comprehensive FTA covering goods and services.

That's it. Two things.

[frisbee]

I think everyone of us will all end up as indentured slaves to Jean-Claude and Marie de Bouchard of Toulouse and our government will claim it as a complete success.

[anonymous-user]

confused_buyer said:

Labour's position is that if they turned up in Brussels the EU would instantly grant them all the benefits of the Single Market without having to accept Freedom of Movement and allow the UK to join in a Customs Union which is a nice fluffy one with all of the benefits and none of the downsides rather than the Customs Union and also allow us a say and veto over the EU signing us up to 3rd party trade deals.

In other words they seem to think if they buy Barnier better Coffee and maybe take a Bakewell Tart with them they'll get a completely different deal.

As far as I can work out that seems to be the extent of the "policy".

But crucially its an approach which could be backed by 15 or so Tories, so enough to derail any hard Brexit plans which Boris & other Tory extremists are pushing for.
The threat will either force a watered down brexit/Tory implosion/GE/All

[dazwalsh]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43175201

Saw this today, basically Tusk trying to tell us what we can and cant have, and our current desires are pure illusion and that we cant cherry pick.

Does he not realise how much st both the UK and the EU will be in if we dont have some form of harmonious relationship after brexit. The EU need to calm down now and stop trying to play billy big bks....

.....because they need our money quite badly

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43169054

It would be interesting to delve into each EU countries thoughts on brexit, wether they align with the bullying approach of the EU negotiations team or if they are a bit more pragmatic about finding common ground.

Edited by dazwalsh on Friday 23 February 20:54

Edited by dazwalsh on Friday 23 February 20:57

[PurpleMoonlight]

dazwalsh said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43175201

Saw this today, basically Tusk trying to tell us what we can and cant have, and our current desires are pure illusion and that we cant cherry pick.

Does he not realise how much st both the UK and the EU will be in if we dont have some form of harmonious relationship after brexit. The EU need to calm down now and stop trying to play billy big bks....

.....because they need our money quite badly

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43169054

It would be interesting to delve into each EU countries thoughts on brexit, wether they align with the bullying approach of the EU negotiations team or if they are a bit more pragmatic about finding common ground.

The UK voted to leave yet you blame the EU for the consequences of that.

The UK Government have decided to leave the CU/SM yet you blame the EU for the consequences of that.

[Welshbeef]

PurpleMoonlight said:

The UK voted to leave yet you blame the EU for the consequences of that.

The UK Government have decided to leave the CU/SM yet you blame the EU for the consequences of that.

You have not grasped at how angry the U.K. population has been with the EU for so so long.

Cameron tried to prove people wrong by showing he could get a deal whilst being in the club which would ease the pressure.... zero Nein (oddly they don’t fine France Italy or Greece or Portugal for breaking the EU rules but hey it’s one rule for some a different for another).

I’m happy for them to build a hard border if they so wish. We will not in N Ireland ROI will not either so it would be the EU demanding that ROI erect (oh err misses) one.

Good luck with that.



Don’t you think it’s amusing the way they oddly come out with scare stories a few times a week.
1. Will not be able to fly into Eu airspace... and yet every country in the world already can do discrimination against the U.K.? Failing to understand if such a crazy situation would apply to us guess what they can fk off out of UK airspace... now try flying to USA hmmm

2. No driving licences UK invalid. Yet USA Canada Oz etc all valid (ditto Russia) so really? Again if they did well no EU driving in the U.K. without a U.K. licence which might be as harsh as needing residency to acquire... or how about all those Iberian Italian French Greek tourist resorts with car hire... oh yes UK holiday there a lot hire lots of vehicles and yes that business wouldn’t be replaced by another nation to replace U.K. so they are happy to give them job losses. Nice.

Not fining France when they refused to take British beef following the BSE ban lift.

They seem lovely. He attitudes seem lovely.
In fact it seems like toys thrown out of Oran holy st budget hole cannot let them go what if another goes balls. eU unites states project has failed.
Oh st they cannot drive the tanks in EU due to our illegal discriminatory ban on U.K. driving licences and Russia are invading

[PurpleMoonlight]

Welshbeef said:

You have not grasped at how angry the U.K. population has been with the EU for so so long.

Because they aren't.

Only 17.4M potentially are.

[Ridgemont]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Welshbeef said:

You have not grasped at how angry the U.K. population has been with the EU for so so long.

Because they aren't.

Only 17.4M potentially are.

He has a point though. The EU ‘negotiating’ team has been set a task. Barnier is grinding that task via the logic of ‘third country’ to its logical conclusion. They have set out in their waterfall diagram a number of ‘inevitable’ settlement points. Unless the UK position falls into one of those points then it logically cannot continue. That isn’t because it is impossible to conceive of an alternative. It’s because it has set out the rules of the game and it believes in its own logic. It isn’t wrong per se but Don41 many months before pointed out that that argument only holds water as long as we assume a begging position. The problem with the EU position is that it doesn’t believe that a WTO fall back will ever be on the cards. They may be right. But they should be challenged on that.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Ridgemont said:

He has a point though. The EU ‘negotiating’ team has been set a task. Barnier is grinding that task via the logic of ‘third country’ to its logical conclusion. They have set out in their waterfall diagram a number of ‘inevitable’ settlement points. Unless the UK position falls into one of those points then it logically cannot continue. That isn’t because it is impossible to conceive of an alternative. It’s because it has set out the rules of the game and it believes in its own logic. It isn’t wrong per se but Don41 many months before pointed out that that argument only holds water as long as we assume a begging position. The problem with the EU position is that it doesn’t believe that a WTO fall back will ever be on the cards. They may be right. But they should be challenged on that.

How the EU trades with third countries was known before the referendum was it not? Most are under WTO tariffs.

I fail to understand why people think the EU should give the UK special treatment. We benefited from tariff free trade with the EU by contributing to the club. We are no longer going to do that. Isn't that what people voted for?

[powerstroke]

PurpleMoonlight said:

How the EU trades with third countries was known before the referendum was it not? Most are under WTO tariffs.

I fail to understand why people think the EU should give the UK special treatment. We benefited from tariff free trade with the EU by contributing to the club. We are no longer going to do that. Isn't that what people voted for?

Yes I concur , why the EU are wasting time with these so called negotiations is beyond
me!!
As you keep reminding us the UK is the weaker party in the deal and the EU has nothing to lose if we walk away and go with WTO ....
Or do you think a pragmatic deal would be better for both the UK and the peoples of Europe even if if it harms the EU ????
And Finally who is most important , the EU or the People it purports to serve ???

Edited by powerstroke on Saturday 24th February 06:43

[PurpleMoonlight]

powerstroke said:

Yes I concur , why the EU are wasting time with these so called negotiations is beyond
me!!
As you keep reminding us the UK is the weaker party in the deal and the EU has nothing to lose if we walk away and go with WTO ....
Or do you think a pragmatic deal would be better for both the UK and the peoples of Europe even if if it harms the EU ????
And Finally who is most important , the EU or the People it purports to serve ???

That rather depends what you value as important.

The UK have voted that sovereignty is more important than the economy.

The EU appears to have effectively chosen the same.

[powerstroke]

PurpleMoonlight said:

That rather depends what you value as important.

The UK have voted that sovereignty is more important than the economy.

The EU appears to have effectively chosen the same.

You can't have a strong economy outside the EU without sovereignty
and if the EU want to shoot the peoples of Europe in the foot well
we will just have to wait and see if the 27 agree to have there feet shot
just so the EU gravy train can limp on a bit longer

[PurpleMoonlight]

powerstroke said:

You can't have a strong economy outside the EU without sovereignty
and if the EU want to shoot the peoples of Europe in the foot well
we will just have to wait and see if the 27 agree to have there feet shot
just so the EU gravy train can limp on a bit longer

And yet nobody, not even the leave campaign, has predicted our economy will be stronger outside the EU than within.

Oh, except you.

[Dr Jekyll]

PurpleMoonlight said:

How the EU trades with third countries was known before the referendum was it not? Most are under WTO tariffs.

I fail to understand why people think the EU should give the UK special treatment. We benefited from tariff free trade with the EU by contributing to the club. We are no longer going to do that. Isn't that what people voted for?

No, net recipients of the EU budget also get free trade. Some countries outside the EU get free trade and the EU are continually boasting that they will get more FTAs real soon now. Free trade is for mutual benefit, not a generous concession in return for payment.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Dr Jekyll said:

No, net recipients of the EU budget also get free trade. Some countries outside the EU get free trade and the EU are continually boasting that they will get more FTAs real soon now. Free trade is for mutual benefit, not a generous concession in return for payment.

Is the FTA equivalent to the CU/SM?

You are confusing the requirements for membership of the EU, with how the EU decides to spend it's membership fees. Or are you just jealous others receive more than us?

[Murph7355]

PurpleMoonlight said:

That rather depends what you value as important.

The UK have voted that sovereignty is more important than the economy.

The EU appears to have effectively chosen the same.

Care to explain how the EU can have "sovereignty"...?

They need to keep wheeling Tusk out. Any hope of further votes (not that they worry you PM) disappears every time they do. He's an idiot.